Snow, cold, in Saudi Arabia: “worst in 30 years”

30 01 2008

According to wire reports, temperatures reached their lowest point in 30 years, reaching to -2°C in the capital, Riyadh, and to -6°C in mountainous regions blanketed by snow.  At least 10 people have died in the country as a weather system driven South from Siberia sent temperatures plummeting. Below are some pictures of snow from that region.

saudisnow2.jpg saudisnow3.jpg 
click for larger images

Apparently its gotten so bad (or they just aren’t prepared to deal with it) that King Saud ordered that government assistance should be given in the affected areas, which witnessed sub-zero temperatures this week.

Saudi Arabians are used to getting stuck in the sand, but snow is a new challenge for many.
I had to laugh at the photo above and the caption:  “Saudi Arabians are used to getting stuck in the sand, but snow is a new challenge for many.” It almosts seems Pythonesque.

Meanwhile, many roads were flooded by heavy rains in the nearby country of Dubai, which attracts sun-hungry tourists with its year-round blue skies. Roofs in some luxury hotels and office blocks were leaking water and several schools asked parents to keep their children home on Wednesday. It’s hard to imagine getting a “rain day” in the middle east.

While I’m enjoying pointing out these uncommon phenomena, I’d also point out that even though both the northern and southern hemispheres have both seen some record cold events in the past 6 months, that doesn’t necessarily equate to “climate change”. Still, something seems afoot as we are seeing more and more events like this. Maybe the massive La Niña now stretching across the Pacific ocean has something to do with this.

Oh but wait…there’s more!

Snow was seen yesterday atop Maui’s Mount Haleakala  – see story

Yeah, somethings up.


Comments : 18 Comments »

Categories : fun_stuff

How not to measure temperature, part 50. How to make a rural station “urban”

29 01 2008

One of the things that happens when your work becomes well known is that people send you things to look at. Such is the case for today’s subject. Here we have a NOAA COOP station which is on the side of a mountain, well away from large cities. Only problem is, they put it right next to a parking lot.

A reader of this blog, Brad Herrick, sent me these photos of the Mt. Charleston weather station on State Route 157 west of Las Vegas.  For those that don’t know, Mt. Charleston is the large mountain to the west that overlooks Las Vegas. NOAA lists it on it’s COOP-A list, meaning that it reports for the climatic database. It’s been in operation since 1949. Its been moved 3 times, but all within about 1/2 mile as the fire station changed and grew.

According to NOAA’s MMS database, here is the description: Elevation, 7600 feet. NV DIV OF FORESTRY FIRE STN KYLE CYN OUTSIDE AND 30 MI NW PO AT LAS VEGAS NV. Topographic Details: RUGGED DEEP CANYON .25 – .5 MILE WIDE, RISING TO PEAKS 3000-5000 FEET HIGHER TO NORTH, SOUTH AND WEST A DISTANCE OF 2 TO 4 MILES. Lat/Lon 36.2597, -115.6452 , COOP ID 265400

Seems pretty rural, with a mental image of “way up in the mountains” if you were researching this station. By James Hansen’s figuring, it would also be a “lights=0″ station since I doubt there is municipal street lighting for this area.

It’s certainly well enough away from the super sized Las Vegas concrete and asphalt heat island.

Here is the view from Google Earth:

mt-charelston-aerial-view520.jpg
click for larger view

Except for a few houses, it certainly looks “rural”.  Any researcher at NCDC or maybe a university that might use this station in some research report would certainly think this station was well away from the building/concrete/asphalt influence of bustling Las Vegas wouldn’t they?

But then we see this:

mtcharelstonnv1-520.jpg

and this:

mtcharelstonnv2-520.jpg

and this:

mtcharelstonnv3-520.jpg
click for larger images

Unfortunately, I don’t have a time series temperature graph of this station to show you since I haven’t found a place at NCDC yet to graph COOP stations that are COOP-A. If anybody knows of such a link, please let me know. 

There’s nothing like convenient parking to convert a rural station to urban. But lets not forget the maintenance of the Stevenson Screen roof (see pic #2 -large), hillside, shade bushes, fire station building revisions, and portable storage unit. When did all that happen? We have no idea.

Surely, it’s easy to disentangle all that from the temperature record. Quick! Somebody create an adjustment equation.


Comments : 20 Comments »
Tags: , , , ,
Categories : weather_stations

Increased Nacreous Clouds: A sign of colder upper air temperatures

29 01 2008

This from www.Spaceweather.com

As January comes to an end, sky watchers in Scandinavia are recovering from a veritable storm of nacreous clouds. After mid-month, hardly a night went by without someone spotting the phenomenon. “It was incredible! They were all over the sky,” says Morton Ross of Oslo, Norway. This picture, taken by Ross on Jan. 25th, shows a typical apparition:

Also known as “Mother of Pearl” clouds, nacreous clouds are peppered with tiny ice crystals that blaze with iridescent color when struck by light from the setting sun. It is these crystals that make nacreous clouds so rare: they require exceptionally low temperatures of minus 85 Celsius (-120 F) to form. Icy nacreous clouds float 9 to 16 miles high, curling and uncurling hypnotically as they are modulated by atmospheric gravity waves.

For much of January, these clouds rolled across the Arctic circle with puzzling regularity. Why the sudden abundance? Is the show over? No one knows. Stay tuned for February!

For more, see the 2008 Nacreous Cloud Gallery For the science behind nacreous clouds, please see this entry in Atmospheric Optics.

As for temperatures at high latitudes, its -35°F in Saskatoon at the surface this morning, so there’s a chance we’ll see more nacreous clouds in days ahead.

tempcity_nat_320x240.jpg


Comments : 9 Comments »

Categories : Science, fun_stuff

Spencer Part2: More CO2 Peculiarities – The C13/C12 Isotope Ratio

28 01 2008

NOTE: This post is the second in the series from Dr. Roy Spencer of the National Space Science and Technology Center at University of Alabama, Huntsville. The first, made last Friday, was called Atmospheric CO2 Increases: Could the Ocean, Rather Than Mankind, Be the Reason?

Due to the high interest and debate his first post has generated, Dr. Spencer asked me to make this second one, and I’m happy to oblige.

Here is part2 of Dr. Spencer’s essay on CO2 without any editing or commentary on my part.

(Side note: Previously, I erroneously reported that Dr. Spencer was out of the country. Not so. That was my mistake and a confusion with an email autoresponse from another person named “Roy”. Hence this new update.)

More CO2 Peculiarities: The C13/C12 Isotope Ratio

Roy W. Spencer

January 28, 2008

In my previous post, I showed evidence for the possibility that there is a natural component to the rise in concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.  Briefly, the inter-annual co-variability in Southern Hemisphere SST and Mauna Loa CO2 was more than large enough to explain the long-term trend in CO2.  Of course, some portion of the Mauna Loa increase must be anthropogenic, but it is not clear that it is entirely so.

Well, now I’m going to provide what appears to be further evidence that there could be a substantial natural source of the long-term increase in CO2.

One of the purported signatures of anthropogenic CO2 is the carbon isotope ratio, C13/C12.   The “natural” C13 content of CO2 is just over 1.1%.  In contrast, the C13 content of the CO2 produced by burning of fossil fuels is claimed to be slightly smaller – just under 1.1%.

The concentration of C13 isn’t reported directly, it is given as “dC13″, which is computed as:

“dC13 = 1000* {([C13/C12]sample / [C13/C12]std ) – 1

The plot of the monthly averages of this index from Mauna Loa is shown in Fig. 1.

spencer-c12-c13-image1.png

Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 158 Comments »

Categories : Science, climate_change

How not to measure temperature, part 49. Alaska’s COOP Stations

27 01 2008

CordovaEarlier I wrote up an essay on the NOAA climate station at Cordova, AK.

Click thumbnail at left for a larger image. 

  
This station was directly next to the village diesel power plant. That station also happens to be part of the NASA GISS surface temperature record used for climate research. The problem is the proximity to nearby human caused heat sources, which may not be accurately adjusted for in the record. Of course the real issue is that if the stations were properly setup and maintained by NOAA, paying attention to their own 100 foot rule, such potential bias would not be an issue. Today I’d like to show you a few other NOAA climate stations in Alaska.

Click thumbnails below for larger images.

Thanks to John Papineau for these photographs

English Bay
English Bay – note the MMTS temperature sensor within about 1 foot of the building.No cold winter nights for this sensor!
 

Moose PassMoose Pass – note the concrete structure which is a fish hatchery
NCDC record says: HATCHERY, OUTSIDE & 3 MI NW OF PO AT MOOSE PASS, AK
 
Susitna Landing

Susitna Landing – note proximity to building this was installed on May 21st, 2003

NCDC record says: FLAT GRAVEL AREA NEAR CONFLUENCE OF KASHWITNA AND SUSITNA RIVERS. How would a researcher know about the building proximity from this?
 
 
  Seward

Seward 19N – note proximity to building
NCDC Record says: OBSERVERS HOME, OUTSIDE & 19.5 MI N OF PO AT SEWARD, AK Again, how would a researcher know about the building proximity?
 
Seward

Seward
Seward #2 – note proximity to street and shading issues. You can see the station location in Google Earth.
 
Tutka Bay
Tutka Bay – note proximity to building and weathering of old Stevenson Screen shelter.
 

As I’ve been saying, the MMTS temperature sensor and it’s cable is systematically forcing measurements closer to human influences. They problem clearly is not unique to the continental United States as these photos from Alaska demonstrate.

In all of Alaska’s open wilderness, are these truly representative of the climate? It seems that every station is close to the small packets of towns and villages that dot Alaska, and necessarily so, since a human observer is required to read and record the thermometer.

Surely though, a better job at station siting could have been done.


Comments : 20 Comments »

Categories : weather_stations

UPDATED: Roy Spencer on how Oceans are Driving CO2

25 01 2008

NOTE: Earlier today I posted a paper from Joe D’Aleo on how he has found strong correlations between the oceans multidecadal oscillations, PDO and AMO, and surface temperature, followed by finding no strong correlation between CO2 and surface temperatures. See that article here:

Warming Trend: PDO And Solar Correlate Better Than CO2

Now within hours of that, Roy Spencer of the National Space Science and Technology Center at University of Alabama, Huntsville,  sends me and others this paper where he postulates that the ocean may be the main driver of CO2.

In the flurry of emails that followed, Joe D’Aleo provided this graph of CO2 variations correlated by El Nino/La Nina /Volcanic event years which is relevant to the discussion. Additionally for my laymen readers, a graph of CO2 solubility in water versus temperature is also relevant and both are shown below:

daleo-co2-ppmchange.png  
Click for full size images

Additionally, I’d like to point out that former California State Climatologist Jim Goodridge posted a short essay on this blog, Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variation, that postulated something similar.

UPDATE: This from Roy on Monday 1/28/08 see new post on C12 to C13 ratio here

I want to (1) clarify the major point of my post, and (2) report some new (C13/C12 isotope) results:

1.  The interannual relationship between SST and dCO2/dt is more than enough to explain the long term increase in CO2 since 1958.  I’m not claiming that ALL of the Mauna Loa increase is all natural…some of it HAS to be anthropogenic…. but this evidence suggests that SST-related effects could be a big part of the CO2 increase.

2.  NEW RESULTS: I’ve been analyzing the C13/C12 ratio data from Mauna Loa.  Just as others have found, the decrease in that ratio with time (over the 1990-2005 period anyway) is almost exactly what is expected from the depleted C13 source of fossil fuels.  But guess what? If you detrend the data, then the annual cycle and interannual variability shows the EXACT SAME SIGNATURE.  So, how can decreasing C13/C12 ratio be the signal of HUMAN emissions, when the NATURAL emissions have the same signal???

-Roy

Here is Roy Spencer’s essay, without any editing or commentary:

Atmospheric CO2 Increases:

Could the Ocean, Rather Than Mankind, Be the Reason?

by

Roy W. Spencer

1/25/2008

            This is probably the most provocative hypothesis I have ever (and will ever) advance:  The long-term increases in carbon dioxide concentration that have been observed at Mauna Loa since 1958 could be driven more than by the ocean than by mankind’s burning of fossil fuels.

            Most, if not all, experts in the global carbon cycle will at this point think I am totally off my rocker.  Not being an expert in the global carbon cycle, I am admittedly sticking my neck out here.  But, at a minimum, the results I will show make for a fascinating story – even if my hypothesis is wrong.  While the evidence I will show is admittedly empirical, I believe that a physically based case can be made to support it.

            But first, some acknowledgements. Even though I have been playing with the CO2 and global temperature data for about a year, it was the persistent queries from a Canadian engineer, Allan MacRae, who made me recently revisit this issue in more detail.  Also, the writings of Tom V. Segalstad, a Norwegian geochemist, were also a source of information and ideas about the carbon cycle.

Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 116 Comments »

Categories : Science, climate_change

Warming Trend: PDO And Solar Correlate Better Than CO2

25 01 2008

Note: This is my analysis of a new paper by Joe D’Aleo, I’ve tried to simplify and explain certain terms where possible so that  it can reach the broadest audience of readers. You can read the entire paper here.

Joe D’Aleo, an AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist, one of the founders of The Weather Channel and who operates the website ICECAP took it upon himself to do an analysis of the newly released USHCN2 surface temperature data set and compare it against measured trends of CO2, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Solar Irradiance. to see which one matched better.

It’s a simple experiment; compare the trends by running an R2 correlation on the different data sets. The result is a coefficient of determination that tells you how well the trend curves match. When the correlation is 1.0, you have a perfect match between two curves. The lower the number, the lower the trend correlation.

Understanding R2 correlation
R2 Coefficient Match between data trends
1.0 Perfect
.90 Good
.50 Fair
.25 Poor
 0 or negative no match at all

If CO2 is the main driver of climate change this last century, it stands to reason that the trend of surface temperatures would follow the trend of CO2, and thus the R2 correlation between the two trends would be high. Since NCDC has recently released the new USHCN2 data set for surface temperatures, which promises improved detection and removal of false trends introduced by change points in the data, such as station moves, it seemed like an opportune time to test the correlation.

At the same time,  R2 correlation tests were run on other possible drivers of climate; Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI).

First lets look at the surface temperature record. Here we see the familiar plot of temperature over the last century as it has been plotted by NASA GISS:

 daleo-gisstemp.gif

The temperature trend is unmistakeably upwards, and the change over the last century is about +0.8°C. 

Now lets look at the familiar carbon dioxide graph, known as the Keeling Curve, which plots atmospheric CO2 concentration measure at the Mauna Loa Observatory:

co2-temp-sm.jpg

CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center – Oak Ridge National Lab) also has a data set for this that includes CO2 data back to the last century (1895) extracted from ice core samples.  That CO2 data set was plotted against the new USHCN2 surface temperature data as shown below:
daleo-co2-ushnc2.png
A comparison of the 11year running mean of the USHCN version 2 annual mean temperatures with the running mean of CO2 from CDIAC. An r-squared of 0.44 was found.

The results were striking to say the least. An R2 correlation of only 0.44 was determined, placing it between fair and poor in the fit between the two data sets.

Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 95 Comments »

Categories : Science, climate_change

How not to measure temperature, part 48. NOAA cites errors with Baltimore’s Rooftop USHCN Station

23 01 2008

I happened across a NOAA internal training manual a couple of weeks ago that contained a photo of a USHCN official climate station that I thought I’d never get a photo of.  The Baltimore Customs House.

Baltimore Customs House USHCN 
Baltimore USHCN station circa 1990’s photo courtesy NOAA, click for more images

What is interesting about this station, is that it is a rooftop station, like we’ve seen in San Francisco, Eureka, and many other US cities. Rooftop stations are suspected to impart a warm bias to the surface temperature records, for obvious reasons. The NWS/NOAA has been reluctant to change these stations to ground-level, wanting to keep a continuous record. The Baltimore USHCN station closed in 1999 and has not been replaced at this location.
Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 15 Comments »

Categories : weather_stations

Public Service Announcement: Stroke Recognition

23 01 2008

A friend from my coffee group sent this about recognizing the signs of a stroke and encouraged me to post it and spread the word. I checked it out to make sure it was not another Internet hoax and I’m happy to report it is valid.

If everyone can remember this simple STR procedure, lives could be saved.

Some background -

During a BBQ, a friend stumbled and took a little fall – she assured everyone that she was fine (they offered to call paramedics) …..she said she had just tripped over a brick because of her new shoes.

They got her cleaned up and got her a new plate of food. While she appeared a bit shaken up, Ingrid went about enjoying herself the rest of the evening.

Ingrid’s husband called later telling everyone that his wife had been  taken to the hospital – (at 6:00 pm Ingrid passed away.) She had suffered a  stroke at the BBQ. Had they known how to identify the signs of a stroke, perhaps Ingrid would be with us today. Some don’t die…. they end up in a  helpless, hopeless condition instead.

A neurologist says that if he can get to a stroke victim within 3 hours he can totally reverse the effects of a stroke… totally . He said the trick was getting a stroke recognized, diagnosed, and then getting the patient medically cared for within 3 hours, which is tough.

RECOGNIZING A STROKE
Remember these ‘3′ steps:  STR. It’s the first three letters of the word STRoke.

Sometimes symptoms of a stroke are difficult to identify. Unfortunately, the lack of situational awareness spells disaster. The stroke victim may suffer severe  brain damage when people nearby fail to recognize the symptoms of a stroke .

Now doctors say a bystander can recognize a stroke by asking three simple
questions:

S * Ask the individual to SMILE.
T * Ask the person to TALK and SPEAK A SIMPLE SENTENCE (Coherently)
       (i.e. It is sunny out today)
R * Ask him or her to RAISE BOTH ARMS.

If he or she has trouble with ANY ONE of these tasks, call 999/911 immediately and describe the symptoms to the dispatcher.

See References: American Stroke Foundation, Stroke Awareness.org

New Sign of a Stroke ——– Stick out Your Tongue

Ask the person to ’stick’ out his tongue.. If the tongue is ‘crooked’, if it goes to one side or the other , that is also an indication of a stroke.


Comments : 4 Comments »

Categories : Announcements

The Climate Change and Wine Conference

22 01 2008

gorevino.jpgFrom the days of Wine and Gore department: The Second annual Climate Change and Wine Conference is scheduled for Feburary 15th and 16th in Madrid, Spain. Al Gore will be the featured speaker.

http://www.climatechangeandwine.com/eng/index.php

SALUD!

Wine snobbery and climate change together.  What’s not to like?

No word yet on whether California wineries will be attending.


Comments : 11 Comments »

Categories : climate_change, fun_stuff

Surprise! There’s an active volcano under Antarctic ice

22 01 2008

mt-erebus.jpg
Above: Mt Erebus, which was previously the only active volcano in Antarctica
picture by Sean Brocklesby

It seems that we still don’t know everything there is to know about our earth-climate system. Take this for example. Scientists have just now discovered an active volcano under the Antarctic ice that “creates melt-water that lubricates the base of the ice sheet and increases the flow towards the sea”.

Yet many claim the CO2 is the driver for any melting of the Antarctic ice sheet. I wonder how this will figure into that argument?

Larsen Ice Shelves A and B, by the way, sit astride a chain of volcanic vent islands known as the Seal Nunataks, which may figure into melting and breakups like this and this. (h/t Alan)

In fact, there are a LOT of volcanoes in Antarctica as you can see in this image. Notice that many are near the edge of the ice, and there are none in the interior, which may be a lack of discovery of ancient ice buried volcanoes. Most scientific bases are near the sea, rather than inland, for supply and weather tolerance purposes and there are many places in the interior that have yet to be fully explored.

These images showing known Antarctic volcanoes and satellite measured temperature trends from 1992-2004 below tends to back up the idea that where there is volcanic activity, temperatures have been rising.

antarcticvolcanoes2.jpgantarctic_temps_avh1982-2004.jpg
Volcanic Map          Temperature Trends

Here is a link and excerpt of the story:

The first evidence of a volcanic eruption from beneath Antarctica’s ice sheet has been discovered by members of the British Antarctic Survey.

The volcano on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet began erupting some 2,000 years ago and remains active to this day. Using airborne ice-sounding radar, scientists discovered a layer of ash produced by a ’subglacial’ volcano. It extends across an area larger than Wales. The volcano is located beneath the West Antarctic ice sheet in the Hudson Mountains at latitude 74.6°South, longitude 97°West.

antarctic_volcano2.jpg

The subglacial volcano has a ‘volcanic explosion index’ of around 3-4. Heat from the volcano creates melt-water that lubricates the base of the ice sheet and increases the flow towards the sea. Pine Island Glacier on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is showing rapid change and BAS scientists are part of an international research effort to understand this change.

Lead author Hugh Corr of the BAS says, “The discovery of a ’subglacial’ volcanic eruption from beneath the Antarctic ice sheet is unique in itself. But our techniques also allow us to put a date on the eruption, determine how powerful it was and map out the area where ash fell. We believe this was the biggest eruption in Antarctica during the last 10,000 years. It blew a substantial hole in the ice sheet, and generated a plume of ash and gas that rose around 12 km into air.”

The discovery is another vital piece of evidence that will help determine the future of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and refine predictions of future sea-level rise. Glaciers are like massive rivers of ice that flow towards the coast and discharge icebergs into the sea.

Here is a related story: Lakes Beneath Antarctic Ice Sheets Found To Initiate And Sustain Flow Of Ice To Ocean

h/t ScienceDaily


Comments : 46 Comments »
Tags: , , ,
Categories : climate_change

Guest Weblog: Ben Herman Of The University Of Arizona – Maximum Temperature Trends and the HO83

21 01 2008

Hygrothermometer
HO83 ASOS Hygrothermometer
(temperature/dewpoint sensor)

Note: This was originally posted on Dr. Roger Pielke Sr’s blog Climate Science at www.climatescience.org I’m reposting it here since we’ve had a number of posts on the HO83 thermometer inaccuracy and it’s imapact on the surface temperature record. Ben Herman raises some very valid points.

There is an issue with regards to U.S. surface temperature trends that seems to have been overlooked, although apparently well recognized. I am referring to the HO-83 thermometers that were installed at many USHCN sites as well as first order stations. It has been well documented (Gall et.al. 1992, Jones et.al. 1995, Karl et. al. 1995) and others.that a warm bias existed, primarily in the daily maximum temperature readings reported by these instruments. The error in the Tucson data was about 2-3 deg F, but this error was apparently different with each thermometer. Karl et. al. (1995) have suggested that the average for this error over the country was on the order of 0.5 deg C on the reported maximum temperatures. Thus, if the maximum temperatures were corrected by this amount, average temperatures in the U.S, would be lowered  by about 0.25 deg C, assuming the minimum readings were correct. This would probably pretty much neutralize the reported trend increase during the late 80’s and 90’s in this country. The situation has been covered in some detail in a blog by Steve McIntyre on ICECAP.US (http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1954) for those wishing more detail on the history of this issue.

(also see these related posts on Watts Up With That: Inside the HO83, Equipment in the USHCN Network, Reno’s ASOS station)

These thermometers have subsequently been replaced, but to the best of my knowledge, none of the station data have been corrected for this problem. In view of the probable magnitude of this error, and the time elapsed since the problems with the HO-83 thermometers have been known, why has this issue not only been not corrected, but also, not even mentioned by those that are determining and publishing these trends? It is true that these faulty instruments were probably used primarily in the U.S.  However, some were apparently sold overseas, but I have no knowledge of where they were sold, or how many were (and may still be) in use. Here in Tucson an all time maximum temperature record was set of 114 deg F. , along with numerous daily records during the time this thermometer was in use, many of these records having been set while no other records were broken within 1000 miles of Tucson (Gall et. al. 1992). Prior to the installation of the HO-83 instrument, the record high for Tucson was 111 deg F, which was reached 6 times. In 1988 and 1989, that record was reached or broken eight times. In 1990 it was equaled or exceeded on 7 days, with 117 deg being recorded during this period. However on 6 of those days records were also set at numerous other locations in Arizona, so they were probably legitimate records (Gall et. al. 1992), although perhaps still too high.Also, it is important to note that these latter records, which seemed more in line with what was occurring at other locations, were set after an apparent sudden  shift downward occurred in the HO-83 readings by about 2 deg in September 1989. (Gall et. al. 1992). No such sudden shift occurred at other stations that I am aware of and the origin of this apparent re-calibration is not known.
 

These instruments were replaced in the mid to late 90’s and no other comparisons have been made since then that I am aware of. I will close by asking someone in the know to tell me why this apparently very important issue has not been considered in existing station climatic data ( the record high temperatures established during the period when the HO-83 was in place still stand) and it is this uncorrected data that has been used for determining temperature trends in the U.S.

REFERENCES

Gall, R, K. Young, R. Schotland, and J. Schmitz , 1992. The Recent Maximum Temperature Anomalies in Tueson: Are They Real or anInstrumental Problem? Journal of Climate Volume 5, Issue 6 (June 1992) pp. 657?665 url

Cyrus G. Jones and Kenneth C. Young , An Investigation of Temperature Discontinuities Introduced by the Installation of the HO-83 Thermometer Journal of Climate Volume 8, Issue 5 (May 1995) pp. 1394?140 url

Karl, T.R., and Coauthors, 1995: Critical issues for long-term climate monitoring. Climate Change, 31, 185?221.


Comments : 3 Comments »
Tags: , ,
Categories : weather_stations

A weeks worth of data from my new MMTS unit

20 01 2008

Last week you may recall that I posted about my new self contained MMTS unit that I’m experimenting with as a possible replacement of as a check system for NOAA’s existing MMTS. Below you can see my test setup in my back yard.

new-mmts-backyard-view.jpg
This is a custom wireless MMTS with internal data logger that I built, view from my backyard.

The most valuable thing about my version of MMTS is that it is cable free, can be placed anywhere, and can log data automatically for days, weeks of even months, depending on the interval. It also logs relative humidity, and dewpoint.

Here is what the internal sensor package/datalogger unit looks like when not installed in the infrared radiation shield:

new-mmts-labeled520.jpg

When you are ready to download the data for analysis, all you have to do is unscrew the head, connect the USB cable to the datalogger and to your laptop as I did shown below. This easy ability to plug into a laptop to download data and start a new data logging run in under 5 minutes makes the design very suitable for field work away from networking and AC power.

new_mmts_connected.jpg

Data transfer for the one week of data I recorded only took about two seconds.

I have plotted all three measurements from the sensor below:

jan20-2008
Click for a larger image:

And here is the raw data file, with data logged every minute, in comma delimited format if you wish to plot it, a key to the values is on line1 of the file. jan20-2008.txt

For comparison, I have logs online from the Davis Vantage Pro2 weather station shown in the background

Jan 13th http://www.bidwellranchcam.com/data/011308hd.txt
Jan 14th http://www.bidwellranchcam.com/data/011408hd.txt
Jan 15th http://www.bidwellranchcam.com/data/011508hd.txt
Jan 16th http://www.bidwellranchcam.com/data/011608hd.txt
Jan 17th http://www.bidwellranchcam.com/data/011708hd.txt
Jan 18th http://www.bidwellranchcam.com/data/011808hd.txt
Jan 19th http://www.bidwellranchcam.com/data/011908hd.txt
Jan 20th http://www.bidwellranchcam.com/data/012008hd.txt

I also prepared a comparison file showing how the New MMTS and the nearby Davis Weather Station max/min readings compare. There is good agreement, with some slight differences that could be related to observation height differences between the two sensor sets.

See the comparison file: newmmts_hi-lo_compare.txt


Comments : 11 Comments »

Categories : weather_stations

How not to measure temperature, part 47

20 01 2008

ajo_part47.jpg

Ajo, AZ USHCN Station photographed by Bob Thompson

But wait, theres more:

Ajo_General_Area

I’ve posted about stations that had proximity to a/c units before, but this one is of particular interest since it has dual a/c units to its west and east. Given that wind tends to hug the side of a building (laminar flow) this provides potential for transferring waste heat from the a/c units to the MMTS sensor. Of course there is the bias based on the MMTS sensor proximity to the building, and the wall corner that it is built into will like provide a night time IR radiative bias near the sensor also. Combined, this station warrants a CRN 5 rating.

Honestly, I don’t know how the COOP manager for the NWS would allow such a poor placement.

This station has an incomplete temperature record, since it apparently has gone through some moves, but the latter part of its graph at the current location seems to confirm a step bias due to the placement.


Ajo_Temperature_Record

Bob indicates from the curator that teh station used to be on a nearby hilltop, but was moved, but according to NCDC’s MMS records for COOP station # 020080 it remains on the hilltop today:

LOCATED ON KNOLL SURROUND BY FLAT TERRAIN. KNOLL & SURROUND AREA PARTIALLY COVERED DESERT SCRUB. SITE OVERLOOKS THE MINE PIT APPROX 5 MI TO THE SW-W. LITTLE AJO MTNS 1.0 MI SSE-SW

The NCDC MMS database system is fraught with such discrepancies. I would suspect that researchers that use a lat/lon change to trigger examinations for a step function in the temperature record could miss this station. The lat/lon record for this station is changed in 1998 but the description remains unchanged.

Even using the old lat/lon in the MMS database puts this station not on a hill, but in a scrub field.

See Google Earth The mine pit referenced does have a hill to the east, which may be the location that was originally referenced. There does appear to be places where a Stevenson Screen may have been placed.

Alas, we may never know.


Comments : 15 Comments »

Categories : weather_stations

CBS News to preempt 60 Minutes for global warming special Sunday Jan 20th

19 01 2008

CBS Press Express - CBS News

This was originally called “CBS News Presents: Global Warming: The Melting
Ice Caps” at the CBS affililiates resource site they call it “CBS News Presents: The Age of Warming” for Sunday.

http://www.cbspressexpress.com/div.php/cbs_entertainment/schedule

here is the synopsis of a previous segment “The Age of Warming”

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/03/30/60minutes/main2631210.shtml

They are focusing on Antarctica on that one. The original aired in April 2007, then they did a “revised” version in August 2007. This may be another “reheated leftovers” of that broadcast. It may be something related to the writers strike. I’m not sure.

Here is their PR on it.
http://www.cbspressexpress.com/div.php/cbs_news/release?id=17692

It looks like James Hansen managed to escape “censorship” once again as they say: “He also speaks to NASA’s top scientist studying climate, who says the Bush administration has restricted what he can say about global warming. “

Maybe they sent Andy Rooney out to grouse at some penguins too.

One of my contacts on an email list I belong to pointed to this as a possible reason they are airing this special a third time:

 “All of this is carefully orchestrated to force a polar bear listing onto the US Fish and Wildlife Service, who knows the science is not there for a listing, but is trying to get sued into doing it anyway.  The science is so bad, the final listing decision was postponed another month. Getting a listing is for the greens like capturing the Queen during end game.”

Once you watch the show, you can decide for yourself and contact CBS Media Relations to tell them what you thought about it:

Kevin Tedesco (212) 975-2329

kev@cbsnews.com
Director, CBS News Communications (“60 Minutes”)


Comments : 46 Comments »

Categories : Announcements, climate_change

Top Ten Science Based Predictions that didn’t come true.

17 01 2008

waynes_top10_science_flops.jpg

There’s an article in the New York Times pushing a something called “the five stages of climate grief” done by a professor at the University of Montana. This got me to thinking about the regular disaster forecasting that we see published in the media about what will happen due to climate change.

We’ve seen this sort of angst broadcast before, and it occurred to me that through history, a lot of ”predictions of certainty” with roots in scientifically based forecasts have not come true. That being the case, here is the list I’ve compiled of famous quotes and consensus from “experts”.

Top Ten Science based predictions that didn’t come true:

10. “The earth’s crust does not move”- 19th through early 20th century accepted geological science. See Plate Tectonics

9. “The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives.” — Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project

8. “That virus is a pussycat.” — Dr. Peter Duesberg, molecular-biology professor at U.C. Berkeley, on HIV, 1988

7. “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” — Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

6. “Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax.” — William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, British scientist, 1899.

5. “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.” — Albert Einstein, 1932

4. “Space travel is bunk.” — Sir Harold Spencer Jones, Astronomer Royal of the UK, 1957 (two weeks later Sputnik orbited the Earth).

3. “If I had thought about it, I wouldn’t have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can’t do this.” — Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M “Post-It” Notepads.

2. “Stomach ulcers are caused by stress” — accepted medical diagnosis, until Dr. Marshall proved that H. pylori caused gastric inflammation by deliberately infecting himself with the bacterium.

1. “Telltale signs are everywhere —from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice in the waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest. Since the 1940s the mean global temperature has dropped about 2.7° F.” — Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University in Time Magazine’s June 24th, 1975 article Another Ice Age?

So the next time you hear about worldwide crop failure, rising sea levels, species extinction, or “climate grief” you might want to remember that just being an expert, or even having a consensus of experts, doesn’t necessarily mean that a claim is true.


Comments : 155 Comments »

Categories : Science, ridiculae

Mercury revealed

16 01 2008

MESSENGER’s First Look at Mercury’s Previously Unseen Side
Click on image to enlarge.

Given its proximity to the sun, Mercury is one of the more difficult planets to image. Before today, maps of the planet Mercury were mostly blank. Views by telescope revealed little detail. Mariner 10 flybys in the 1970s had photographed only a portion of the planet. 

When Mariner 10 flew past Mercury three times in 1974 and 1975, the same hemisphere was in sunlight during each encounter. As a consequence, Mariner 10 was able to image less than half the planet. Planetary scientists have wondered for more than 30 years about what spacecraft images might reveal about the hemisphere of Mercury that Mariner 10 never viewed.

But now the unseen side has been revealed: NASA’s Messenger spacecraft took this picture from a range of 17,000 miles on Jan. 14, 2008. At first glance, it seems to show little more than a repetitive expanse of craters, much like our own moon.  But researchers are excited. One of the craters is the giant Caloris Basin never before seen in its entirety. Formed by the impact of a large asteroid or comet, Caloris is one of the largest and perhaps youngest basins in the Solar System.

Close-up photos of the 800-mile-wide crater (still being downloaded from the spacecraft) may reveal new things about the history of Mercury and the physics of catastrophic impacts. BTW, Mercury’s nearness to the sun causes a daytime temperature of more than 400 °C (752°F). Mmmmm TOASTY!

More photos will be coming in the next few days, I expect there will be some surprises. (h/t Spaceweather)


Comments : 4 Comments »

Categories : Uncategorized

Pielke Climate Science Weblog Moved and Restored – note new URL

15 01 2008

Over the last week, Dr. Roger Pielke’s Climate Science weblog has had several technical issues related to keeping a very old version of WordPress running. The website has been down for a couple of days. I had suggested a migration to a new platform which they’ve been busy doing.

The new URL is http://climatesci.org or http://www.climatesci.org

Be sure to update your bookmarks in web browsers and on blogrolls and web page links.

 The old URL of http://climatesci.colorado.edu/ can no longer be updated, and will likely cease to exist, or become an automatic pointer to the new URL.
 


Comments : Comments Off

Categories : Announcements

Yet another thing to avoid

15 01 2008

Watch The Video!

At ShopRite supermarkets in the eastern US, Microsoft will be rolling out computerized shopping carts that will stream video ads based on where you are in the store and present instant coupons. Oh boy more advertising! Just what we need.

These carts will allow people with a ShopRite card to enter their shopping list on the ShopRite site from home, and then pull up the list on their grocery cart when they swipe their card. The new carts will also display advertisements depending on where in the supermarket the cart is, using RFID technology to help locate it.

Oh goody.  I wonder if they’ll run Vista on these shopping carts? I don’t have that kind of time.

How many of these carts will end up under a bridge because some bum thinks they can get TV on the shopping cart and decides to “upgrade” from his current model?

Maybe we can even get breaking news alerts from our local media. And maybe a traffic report too:

“Multi cart pile up in aisle seven! A detour is available through the liquor section, Sierra Nevada beer now 10% off if you rush your cart there in the next 30 seconds.”

If they add a Britney Spears proximity tracker, then they’ll really have something. Better yet, if the cart will automatically summon AAA for servicing that one bad wheel, I’ll be really impressed.


Comments : 9 Comments »

Categories : Uncategorized

A typical day in the Stevenson Screen Paint Test

14 01 2008

Click for full sized image
Experiment config on July 13th. The screens were subsequently moved further apart. Note aspirated air temperature reference in forground.

I’ve been sorting through some of the data, and have found many similarities with many days of data. So I thought I’d present a typical day from this summer. The is 8/27/07, exactly one month after I started the experiment data logging.

I chose to show this day for starters because I can be certain that the whitewash was fully cured and no “newness effects” related to the conversion of CaOH to CaCO3 would remain. Whitewash cures by chemical reaction with air, not by drying.

First here is a 24 hour plot of the raw data, at 15 second sampling intervals, note that it gets noisy on the way to Tmax due to afternoon winds about 5-10 mph. Another factor for noises is that the response time of the NIST calibrated thermistors is fairly fast, in seconds.

paint-test-082707-raw-520.png
Full size graph: paint-test-082707-raw.png

Since it is harder to visually determine separate Tmax and Tmin with noisy data, I ran it though a data smoothing algorithm to produce this plot.

paint-test-082707-smoothed-520.png
Full size graph: paint-test-082707-smoothed.png

Here is the report from my data plotter on peaks for this graph:

Air Temp
Minimum = 55.38 at X = 8/27/2007 6:52:48 AM
Maximum = 95.04 at X = 8/27/2007 3:40:50 PM

Whitewash
Minimum = 56.22 at X = 8/27/2007 6:54:35 AM
Maximum = 96.94 at X = 8/27/2007 3:43:07 PM

Latex
Minimum = 55.92 at X = 8/27/2007 6:40:25 AM
Maximum = 97.74 at X = 8/27/2007 3:42:06 PM

Bare Wood
Minimum = 56.36 at X = 8/27/2007 6:39:24 AM
Maximum = 98.47 at X = 8/27/2007 3:42:36 PM

Since in regular use, COOP/USHCN stations report their daily max and min to NCDC for inclusion in the climatic database, I have provided zoomed graphs on the Tmax and Tmin periods.

Here is the zoomed Tmax graph:

paint-test-082707-tmaxzoom-520.png
Full size graph: paint-test-082707-tmaxzoom.png

And here is the zoomed Tmin graph:

paint-test-082707-tminzoom-520.png
Full size graph: paint-test-082707-tminzoom.png

As a secondary reference besides my own aspirated air temperature, I’m fortunate to have a CDF RAWS station within about 200 yards, on similar terrain and ground cover. It has a non-aspirated shield, and also has wind, and solar radiation among other sensors.

Here is the temperature plot from it:
temp-chi-raws-082707-520.png
Full size graph: temp-chi-raws-082707.png

A complete suite of plots, including wind and solar radiation in watts/m2 can be had from the CDEC data query web page.

As I wade though this data, I’ll be publishing additional days, and more detailed analyses, followed by a final report that covers everything that I’ve learned.

In the spring of 2008, I’ll be repeating this experiment at a slightly different location, there is a late afternoon bias for tree shading to the west that I want to remove from the experiment.

I’ll remind all readers that this is a single day, and that conclusions should not be drawn from it as it represents a single data point for Tmax/Tmin. Please be patient while I do further analysis.


Comments : 32 Comments »

Categories : Science, weather_stations

« Previous Entries