Mariah Carey is all set to pick up her People’s Choice Award tonight on CBS. She’s a winner, I’m told, for Best R&B singer.

What? Yes, everyone seems to know who’s won those People’s Choice Awards before they arrive at the studio. Who votes in this thing? “The voting public,” a Hollywood publicist replied with a smirk. Well, whatever.

Mariah’s had a big year, especially because of her surprisingly understated performance in “Precious.” She’s picking up Breakthrough Performance awards everywhere, and now, suddenly, directors want Mariah Carey. It’s a far cry from her debut acting debacle years ago in “Glitter.”

It’s too bad Mariah didn’t get pushed more for an Oscar or Globe in “Precious,” since she’s also supported the movie like crazy. She’s shown up anywhere they’ve asked her to go. And she didn’t require a fee to be there, either!

One place where Mariah did not have a big hit last year: music. Her most recent album just didn’t take off despite the witty lead single, “Obsessed.”

But this is what Mariah has to do next, I think, to get back on the charts: a straight ahead album of real singing, no fluttering, no hip hop. She has to get a really musical producer — like her buddy Randy Jackson — and record some actual, structured songs. She might even cover some classics. But the days of ethereal scatting over this and that, I think, are over. Let the voice be heard!

As for the People’s Choice: if you watch this show, you’ll know who’s won right away by who’s in the audience waiting to get their award. Since Hugh Jackman, Sandra Bullock, Carrie Underwood, and Taylor Swift are already being promoted by CBS, you can guess they won their categories. Surprise! They’re not hanging around that studio for their health!

P.S. The People’s Choice has weird categories, like “Best On Screen Team.” For me, that would be the New York Yankees. Just sayin’…

Warren Beatty, a person whom I’ve known and admired for years, is in a jam. It’s not hard to figure out what happened. He’s famous for hemming and hawing. Twenty years ago when he was finishing “Dick Tracy,” I tried like crazy to get him for a cover story for the new defunct Fame magazine. He wouldn’t say yes, he wouldn’t say no. He once actually called me at my grandmother’s house to discuss why he hadn’t given an answer. It just went on forever until he’d worn us both out.

I can imagine that in pursuit of writing a biography of Beatty, Peter Biskind — a journalist I do not trust — had the same back and forth. Yes, no, yes, no, maybe, uh, well, sometime. All that time, Biskind took notes. And now we have “Star: How Warren Beatty Seduced America,” the unauthorized biography of Beatty in which the subject unwittingly collaborated. Oy vey.

Warren once said to me, in front of another star, these words: “You make the mistake of thinking we’re [we — being stars] not reading what you write. We do.” Biskind maybe made that mistake now, since the book is about to be published. He’s riled up attorney Bert Fields, who loves to issue proclamations and back away. Fields says the book isn’t authorized. I’ve no doubt he’s right. Too late, Bert!

The biggest bone of contention? The number of women Beatty’s been with. Biskind says 12,775. Warren, pre-Annette Bening and four children, certainly got around. He’s no doubt not eager for his kids to see the whole thing in one place. Can we name these ladies? Let’s see: Julie Christie, Natalie Wood, Joan Collins, Carly Simon, Michelle Phillips, Isabelle Adjani, Britt Ekland, Madonna, Diane Keaton, Faye Dunaway — and those are just for starters. Maybe a thousand. Maybe two thousand. You’d have to examine very closely Julia Phillips’ seminal work, “You’ll Never Eat Lunch in this Town Again,” the book from which much of Biskind’s work flows. It’s his bible.

So, what’s the point? Is this biography? Does anyone care? Is it film criticism? What is Biskind’s point anyway? Worst of all, is the way he treats the women whom allegedly Beatty bedded. Whether it’s one or one million, it doesn’t matter. He misses the charm, and the joke, how Beatty would even have gotten away with it all. As Jane Fonda told me a couple of years ago, and she repeated at Beatty’s AFI dinner: when she met him on a screen test, she thought he was gay. “He was too good looking, and all his friends were gay.” (Biskind’s other descriptions of Fonda and Beatty make the writer sound like a prurient 12-year-old.)

Of course, this dust up is just for publicity. Biskind needs a hook to sell his book. He’s not exactly Mr. Bestseller. And Beatty hasn’t made a movie in a long time, making him not a subject that immediate for younger readers. In the end, though, you can skip “Star.” A better unauthorized biography by a much more astute writer (I’ve been sworn to secrecy) may be in the works. As for Biskind, he named his book not after Beatty but after a supermarket tabloid. That should tell us everything.

I knew “Titanic.” “Avatar” is no “Titanic.”

Even though “Avatar” has made its much vaunted billion dollars around the world, fans of the 3D sci-fi spectacle are not wanting to take its music home.

Remember when James Cameron’s “Titanic” launched Celine Dion’s “My Heart Will Go On” up the charts to number 1? You couldn’t get away from the song or Celine pounding her heart with her fist.

Alas, Leona Lewis’s theme song from “Avatar” is atrocious, and, luckily, not getting any traction. So far the soundtrack album to “Avatar,” featuring the milquetoast new age music of James Horner, isn’t selling any copies. Only amazon.com has it listed, at number 20. Otherwise, the “Avatar” CD is not a factor in the music sales since its release on December 15th.

As well, the Lewis single, “I See You,” has failed to attract much attention from anyone. And that’s just as well. Lewis is a great singer, and has her own hit album and single out right now. “I See You” is a bland example of her soulful work. For a better example of Leona Lewis, try “Happy.” 

And here’s an irony: even though “I See You” hasn’t done much for “Avatar,” Lewis has helped out another, more Oscar prone movie. “Happy” is used in the TV ads and trailers for “Precious.” So there.

Willie Mitchell, the great musician, producer and composer, has died in Memphis. He was 81.

Willie was famous for putting Hi Records on the map in 1970, the label that gave us Al Green, Ann Peebles, O.V. Wright, Syl Johnson, and dozens and dozens of hits. He produced them all from his Royal Studios in Memphis, an assuming red brick building.

All those hits like “Let’s Stay Together” and “I Can’t Stand the Rain” came from Willie’s craftmanship. He was one of a kind, a legend. The Grammys honored him in 2008 with a lifetime achievement award.

And it’s not like Willie — a famed trumpeter and bandleader — only worked with Memphis musicians. Big rock stars sought him out all the time. Keith Richards asked him to produce his first solo album years ago, and the result was a wonderful track called “Make No Mistake.” Willie recently worked with Rod Stewart on his album of soul songs. There was only one Willie Mitchell sound, a lush undersweep with the Memphis Horns (the Hodges brothers) and a whip of a back beat. Everyone wanted to copy it, but no one could. And years after Al Green thought he’d moved on, he came back to get it again with Mitchell on a pair of recent albums.

If you haven’t noticed, Maggie Gyllenhaal and Peter Sarsgaard are like the Joanne Woodward and Paul Newman of this generation.

They are each in Oscar contender films — Maggie in “Crazy Heart” with Jeff Bridges, Peter in “An Education” with Carey Mulligan. And they each give sensational, understated performances. A year ago they performed Chekhov’s “Uncle Vanya” together directed by Austin Pendleton at CSC. They’re the real thing.

I had lunch with Maggie at Cookshop on 10th Avenue a couple of weeks ago, to talk about how much everyone loves Jeff Bridges and how “Crazy Heart” turns out to be Fox Searchlight’s surprise movie of the season.

Back in September at the Toronto Film Festival, when I saw Jeff Bridges at the premiere of “The Men Who Stare at Goats,” I’d asked him what else he had coming out, he didn’t even mention “Crazy Heart.” Then “Amelia” tanked, and F/S scrambled for a live action Oscar film. (The fantastic “Mr. Fox” notwithstanding.) They looked in all their cupboards and drawers, and found this little film with a country heart of gold.

The Sarsgaards have a three-year-old daughter Ramona who Maggie says has changed her acting career completely. “I got a feeling when she was 14 months that I had to do something for myself. It was just during the writers’ strike. And then ‘Crazy Heart’ came to me, and I thought there’s no way this movie will be made. When I read it I said no way.”

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Each year, amid the hoopla and millions spent, one movie completely falls between the cracks. Originally I thought that was Oren Moverman’s “The Messenger,” but then Woody Harrelson got some award attention and the film got a little uplift.

So the winner this year: Richard Linklater’s charming “Me and Orson Welles.” It’s been in theaters for about a month and made less than a million dollars. The distributor is non-existent, which is a shame. This is such a fine film, and one of the real indie companies should have released it. “Me and Orson Welles” deserved a shot.

Luckily, the San Francisco critics reached out and awarded Christian McKay, who plays Welles so brilliantly, their Best Supporting Actor award. I guess that’s something. (McKay also goes up against Harrelson at this year’s Indie Spirit Awards.)

But otherwise, Linklater’s period piece, set in 1937 New York, will go to DVD and cable. Someone will say to me six months from now, “I saw the best movie last night on TV. Why didn’t it do more?” Uh-huh.

Part of my own reluctance about the film was star Zac Efron, who plays 18-year-old Richard, an acolyte actor who winds up getting a bit part in Orson Welles’s landmark production of “Julius Caesar” at the famed Mercury Theater. Efron has been so maligned as a teen heartthrob that you don’t want to take him seriously. Yet, he’s just perfect as Richard, and carries his role with charm and dignity. He was good in “Hairspray,” too. It’s time to cut him some slack and forget the endless, meaningless “blobbing” about him from gossip sites.

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The National Board of Review — which snubbed “Precious” and gave Clint Eastwood and George Clooney their annual awards — has lost its sponsor. After three years, Bulgari has pulled out of the awards dinner. This isn’t cause and effect, says a Bulgari rep. They decided to put their money into a more charitable cause:  Save the Children.

Annie Schulhof, president of the NBR said in a statement:” The NBR has treasured its partnership with Bulgari for the past several years. Following the celebration of their 125th anniversary and their important work with Save The Children, we hope to work with them again in the future.”

The NBR has no new sponsor to replace Bulgari.

For some reason, though, Bulgari’s money doesn’t show up in the NBR’s annual tax return. They list themselves as a foundation, and thus file a Form 990. No sign of Bulgari in their last three filings. Schulhof’s rep said that the explanation is that the group doesn’t itemize its contributions.

But it is interesting that a membership fee group assigned with the task of watching movies and picking its favorites claimed in 2008 $779,784 in net assets. (I’m putting that in bold because I can’t believe it.) They gave away $75,000 in student grants and had $126,000 in salaries. They claim another $100,000 in “other expenses” including $2,885 for screenings. Maybe this is for popcorn since the studios give them all their screenings.

Meanwhile, members of the NBR are definitely questioning how Eastwood and Clooney racked up all those nominations. Insiders who’ve taken their own polls say most everyone voted for “The Hurt Locker” for Best Picture, Kathryn Bigelow for Best Director, and acting awards for Christoph Waltz (”Inglourious Basterds“) and Mo’Nique (”Precious”). In past years, there have been reports of a smaller committee making the final decisions. But an NBR rep says the vote was counted per-member, and that “there were no unanimous votes.”

Next week, the NBR holds it annual gala after the far more important New York Film Critics dinner on January 11th, and just before the Critics Choice Awards in Los Angeles (VH-1, January 15th) and the Golden Globes.

A lot of Academy voters are probably going through their holiday mail today — and guess what — the Oscar ballot is here.

Some nominees seem like done deals. “Up in the Air,” “Precious,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglorious Basterds” and maybe “Invictus” or “Up” are the top likely choices. By now, a regular voter could rattle off that list of five without too much trouble.

But where to go from there? With 10 total Best Picture nominees, it’s the “back five” that will take a little more work and thought this year.

“Avatar,” for example, looks like the Big Studio shoo-in. It’s made a gazillion dollars. Even thought it has no acting nominations, a terrible script and a lot of CGI, “Avatar” will still take a nod. And the idea of James Cameron parading his ego around the Oscars is too tantalizing to pass up.

“Nine” would be next, if for nothing else, the glamour quotient. Without “Nine,” the Oscars could be a dreary affair. (Don’t forget– animated “Up” is great but produces no big stars on the red carpet.)

“Nine” also benefits from at least two or three performance nominations (Marion Cotillard in lead, Penelope Cruz in supporting, Daniel Day-Lewis in lead) and lots of craft noms too. Between SAG, Critics Choice and Golden Globes, “Nine” has momentum. (And if the show doesn’t feature Fergie singing “Be Italian” and Kate Hudson on “Cinema Italiano,” then we’re in for a long, long night.)

Three more? How about “An Education” — absolutely, with Carey Mulligan for best actress, too — and “A Single Man,” with nominations for Colin Firth and Julianne Moore.

One more nomination needed for the big show on March 7: Sandra Bullock, for “The Blind Side.” If we’re going popular this year, then a Bullock nomination is cool. Even Meryl Streep, this year’s fait accompli best actress, would agree.

The 10 nominees that can make this year’s show exciting: “”Up in the Air,” “Precious,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglorious Basterds,” “Invictus,” “Nine,” “Up,” “A Single Man,” “An Education” and “Avatar.”

The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame is considering a move not unlike “Desperate Housewives.”

In fact, you might call Jann Wenner the “desperate despot” of rock.

Sources tell me that Wenner is considering doing exactly what the TV show did a couple of years ago — jump ahead five years.

Currently, the RRHOF charter says that in order to be inducted, a band or act isn’t eligible until 25 years have passed since its first record release.

But now that popular music has passed into its retirement, the number of possible new inductees has thinned considerably. This winter, the Hall will induct Genesis, the Hollies, Iggy Pop and the Stooges, Jimmy Cliff and ABBA. They’ve all been the on the ballot for a long time and have finally made it mostly because the choices are diminishing.

I’m told that Wenner has looked at the next group of possible inductees, for 2011, and it’s not good: The only superstar who’s had a major career and influenced rock and roll is Sting. Otherwise, the perfectly nice but not exactly big game changers are ‘Til Tuesday, Chris Isaak, Suzanne Vega and Simply Red.

Of course, Wenner could do what many consider the right thing and induct the many missing names from Chubby Checker, Billy Preston and Mary Wells to Chicago, the Moody Blues, Todd Rundgren, Linda Ronstadt, Carly Simon, Carole King, Neil Diamond, Neil Sedaka, Rufus & Carla Thomas and so many more it’s hard to list them. But that’s unlikely.

The new idea is to change the charter so that it only takes 20 years to get in. That would move up a lot of acts on the ballot that are more current and carry some name value, which would be good for TV rights. Believe it or not, the following would then be eligible for the 2011 ceremony: Guns N’ Roses, Green Day, Public Enemy, Nirvana, Kid Rock and Smashing Pumpkins. Also a possibility right away: Keith Richards as a solo artist.

The fear, of course, is that with these new guidelines, the artists who’ve been snubbed previously will now never get in. Of course, one other solution would be just to shut the doors, stop inductions entirely and make the annual dinner a revisit of inductees. But TV doesn’t want Nursing Home Rock, so Wenner — who has no one to stop him — will probably not do that either.

While Academy voters are studying their ballots and watching their videos, believe it or not there are a lot of new movies coming soon. Here’s a short list of what we’re looking forward to in 2010:

Howl – a docudrama about poet Allen Ginsberg’s obscenity trial following publication of his famous poem is one of the Sundance openers this year. James Franco is Ginsberg, and should be riveting. Great supporting cast, too: Mary-Louise Parker, Jon Hamm, David Straithairn, Treat Williams, etc.

Shutter Island – Martin Scorsese’s thriller with Leonardo DiCaprio was supposed to have been released a few weeks ago. But Paramount delayed it, saying Oscar campaigns for “Up in the Air” and “The Lovely Bones” had them overextended financially. A February release isn’t always bad — look at “The Silence of the Lambs.” And Scorsese is rarely off key.

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