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MacLean Recall Watch: 1,140 Votes Still To Be Counted
By Matthew Cunningham | 02/03/10 | 12:28 PM EDT | 5 Comments
Given the 118 vote margin by which the recall of Lance MacLean has unofficially prevailed, it's worth noting there are still 1,140 ballots left to be counted. OC Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley promised to have those tabulated by the end of the day. There about 230 provisional ballots and 900 walk-in vote-by-mail ballots (it's difficult to know when the latter were actually completed, but it's safe to assume it was late in the election given they were dropped off on Election Day).
According to MacLean consultant Scott Taylor, MacLean won Election Day votes 57% to 43%. If that ratio holds for the remaining ballots, the result could flip and the recall could lose by a very narrow margin. I don't know how likely it is, but it is definitely possible since the remaining ballots will be late votes by their nature, and the recall lost support as Election Day approached.
We'll find out in about 8 hours.
It's interesting to compare the amounts spent by replacement election candidates Dale Tyler and Dave Leckness. Tyler, the very public face of the recall, raised at least $30,000 as of January 25 -- virtually all of it his -- and it looks like he spent almost every penny.
As of January 14, Dave Leckness had raised a little more than $10,000 (about 40% of it a personal loan) and had only spent approximately $5,500. He apparently didn't send out any mail the last two weeks of the campaign.
And yet Leckness walloped the Face Of The Recall by nearly 1,000 votes.
This reinforces my opinion that this is a Pyrrhic victory for the recall clique. Keep in mind their real goal was to give their council allies John Paul Ledesma and Cathy Schlicht a third vote and gain a council majority. The recallers hate Mayor Pro Tem Trish Kelley and Councilman Frank Ury every bit as much as Lance MacLean, but focused on a recalling MacLean because he was the weakest politically. A low-turnout recall election made sense because:
A) it increased their odds of replacing MacLean with one of their own and
B) Since Ledesma is termed off the council in November, gaining a council majority would require winning two seats in November versus one ina recall.
And at the end of all their exertions, what have the recallers achieved?:
- They remain at the wrong end of a 3-2 council majority -- in fact, a politically stronger majority given Leckness' popularity and lack of negative baggage going into November.
- Dale Tyler is out at least $30,000 he'll never get back, and finds himself on the receiving end of investigations by the District Attorney, the state Fair Political Practices Commission and the California Highway Patrol.
- Bankroller Connie Lee is out for even more loot, and also finds herself at the receiving end of a DA investigation.
Like I said, a Pyrrhic victory -- assuming it holds when all the ballots are counted.
UPDATE: Here's a more precise breakdown of the remaining ballots:
- Vote by Mail ballots handed in at the poll sites yesterday (864)
- Provisional ballots (235)
- Paper ballots cast at the polls (41)
TOTAL: 1,140
TAGS: Lance MacLean, Dave Leckness, Dale Tyler, Mission Viejo, recall
Comments
I hope that celebratory "Gun Smoke" party atmosphere over on MV Lake last night goes up in smoke tonight. Would make the victory acheived last night even more sweet. So good to see the wackos get smacked down.
Congratulations to go out to Dave Leckness on his successful and affordable campaign either way! Get ready for November Dave - you have lots of supporters!
For those of us without a dictionary available, "Pyrrhic" basically means the cost outweighed the benefit...
While I understand Matt's reasoning to pull that word out and use it, I disagree with his conclusion. If nothing else, this recall election puts local elected officials across O.C. with an 'R' by their name on notice: YOU ARE NOT UNTOUCHABLE and YOU WILL BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR YOUR ACTIONS. I don't think too high a price can be paid to send out that sobering message to Incumbents and Candidates alike.
For the sake of all the disenfranchised, disgruntled voters out there in all of the O.C. cities, I hope this recall victory stands.
...it's vitiated by the specifics of this case. For example, Mission Viejo Councilman John Paul Ledesma signed the recall papers with its list of reasons why Lance MacLean should be recalled -- even though he was equally guilty of some of the particulars for which MacLean was being recalled!
The warning value is mitigated by the schizophrenic, unprincipled nature of the recall.
I concur wholeheartedly with you Matt that Ledesma is equally guilty of many of the same things McLean is being recalled for - and he should pay a price for it as well; not be given a free pass because he was hopeful nobody would notice since he signed on to the recall.
That being said, a recall is very difficult to pull off successfully with one person let alone two or more. Therefore, while I have no official role in the McLean recall, I totally understand why they wisely went after only one guy who appears to be the lowest hanging fruit. It makes total sense.
Lesdesma, as I understand it, is termed out in November and has no bright, shining future in politics. I'm sure there is plenty of fodder to throw at him should he decide to run for another office. It's kinda like the Carona, Jaramillo, Hadil thing to a lesser degree...
Would love to see Lance hold on to his seat, then Leckness win in November. That would make the toteboard (with apologies to Monty Python):
Sensible Party 4
Very Silly Party 1 (sorry Ms. Schlict)
Mission Viejo would be brought back from the brink of the Larry Gilbert clan taking over.
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