After holding the top spot for seven consecutive weeks, it looks as if "Avatar" will reign one final time over Super Bowl weekend.

Despite rising interest among its core audience of teenage and twentysomething females, the romantic tearjerker "Dear John" appears likely to open just shy of director James Cameron's blockbuster, which looks to be No. 1 at the box office for the eighth weekend in a row.

According to people who have seen pre-release polling of moviegoers, "Dear John" is on track to sell a little more than $20 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada. That's a solid start given that financier Relativity Media paid about $25 million to produce the film, which Sony Pictures is releasing in exchange for a distribution fee.

Still, the backers of "Dear John" will be looking to go beyond a good opening to a very long run akin to that of 2004's "The Notebook," also based on a Nicholas Sparks romance novel, which debuted with $13.5 million and ended up with $81 million in ticket sales after five months in theaters.

"Avatar" is on track to gross $26 million to $28 million from Friday through Sunday if it continues the minimal 10% to 15% drops that it has experienced for the last several weekends. The 3-D science fiction epic, which has grossed $604 million domestically and nearly $1.5 billion overseas, could get a boost from its nine Oscar nominations this week, including best picture, and see an even smaller decline.

Overseas, "Avatar" could easily take in an additional $80 million-plus this weekend, bringing its total worldwide haul to nearly $2.2 billion.

On the post-Super Bowl weekend, "Avatar" is certain to be thrown off its domestic perch by any one of several new releases, including the romantic comedy "Valentine's Day" and the horror remake "The Wolfman."

"Dear John" was originally set to be the only new movie opening this weekend. However, when Paramount Pictures delayed the Leonardo DiCaprio thriller "Shutter Island" from October to Feb. 19, Lionsgate decided to avoid the competition and pushed back its John Travolta-Jonathan Rhys Myers action movie "From Paris With Love" to this Friday.

Studios usually don't debut movies aimed at men on Super Bowl weekend, because the target audience is otherwise occupied on Sunday. But Lionsgate, which bought distribution rights to "From Paris" from financier Europa Corp., is hoping to duplicate the success of "Taken," which opened on Super Bowl weekend last year to a healthy $24.7 million. Both films were directed by Pierre Morel.

However, people who have seen pre-release surveys say "From Paris With Love" is tracking for a more modest opening of about $15 million.

Much of the action on the box-office charts this weekend may be focused on several small movies that received multiple Oscar nominations on Tuesday, which are hoping for significant boosts.

Lionsgate will expand best picture nominee "Precious" from 222 theaters to 669 theaters. The low-budget Sundance acquisition has sold a healthy $46 million of tickets to overwhelmingly African American crowds.

The studio is hoping that Oscar attention will draw a more diverse crowd to the harrowing inner-city tale. "Precious" had played as wide as 1,003 theaters in December. In some cases it will be returning to theaters where it already played, such as Los Angeles' Arclight Cinemas.

Sony Pictures Classics and Fox Searchlight are using this weekend to springboard their movies "An Education" and "Crazy Heart," respectively, beyond the limited runs they have had. The British coming-of-age drama "An Education," which got a best picture nod and has generated $8.8 million, will go from 75 theaters to 763. The country music drama "Crazy Heart," for which Jeff Bridges got a best actor nomination, is jumping from 239 to 819 theaters. It has collected $7.3 million.

"An Education" and "Crazy Heart" will be looking to gross about $3 million this weekend, while "Precious" will probably take in $1.5 million or so, since it has already done a substantial chunk of business.

-- Ben Fritz

Top photo: Channing Tatum and Amanda Seyfried in "Dear John." Credit: Scott Garfield / Sony Pictures.

Bottom photo: John Travolta and Jonathan Rhys Myers in "From Paris With Love." Credit: Rico Torres / Lionsgate.

The good news for Mel Gibson: 70% of moviegoers who attended "Edge of Darkness" this weekend said he was their No. 1 reason for attending.

The not-so-good news: His audience was aging, with relatively few young people still interested. The movie's opening is the lowest for a film starring Gibson since "Braveheart" started with $9.9 million in 1995, when ticket prices were 42% lower.

"Edge of Darkness," for which Warner Bros. bought domestic distribution rights from financier GK Films for $27 million, opened to a fine but far from fantastic $17.1 million from Friday through Sunday, according to a studio estimate.

Despite a seven-year absence from starring in a movie, during which his most prominent public moment was an alcohol-fueled anti-Semitic rant, Gibson held onto at least some of his core fan base: adults who grew up on movies like "Mad Max," "Lethal Weapon" and "The Patriot." Ninety percent of those who saw "Edge of Darkness" were older than 21, and 56% were over 35, according to exit polls. However, despite expectations that the crowd would be heavily male, 47% of ticket buyers were women.

Interest in "Edge of Darkness" was more geographically diverse than usual. Despite higher ticket prices in the biggest cities, theaters in midsize markets, such as San Antonio and Plano, Texas, and Fresno, were among the top 15 for the film, a rarity.

Audiences gave "Edge of Darkness" an average grade of B+, according to market research firm CinemaScore, a portent of solid buzz and a potentially mild drop next weekend, when the tearjerker "Dear John" and action movie "From Paris With Love" open before Super Bowl Sunday.

Despite expectations based on pre-release surveys that two new movies would be in tight competition, "Darkness" easily beat the $12.1-million opening of "When in Rome." a sign that Kristen Bell and Josh Duhamel aren't yet major romantic-comedy stars.

"Avatar" added $95 million overseas to its $30-million domestic take this weekend, bringing the worldwide total for the 3-D phenomenon to $2.04 billion. James Cameron's science-fiction spectacle dropped just 12% in foreign countries and 14% domestically. If it continues those declines and gets a boost from Academy Awards attention in the coming weeks, it will easily surpass $2.5 billion and could possibly top $3 billion.

Also overseas, Disney's "The Princess and the Frog" had a strong $9.6-million debut in France, taking the No. 1 spot in that country after it was held by "Avatar" for the last six weekends. The studio's first hand-drawn animated feature in six years has reached $78.3 million internationally, with several major markets including the United Kingdom debuting next weekend. In the U.S. and Canada, it has tapped out at just over $100 million, a relatively disappointing performance compared to other previous releases from Disney Animation Studios, such as 2008's "Bolt."

Although "Legion" easily beat "The Tooth Fairy" last weekend, it now appears that 20th Century Fox and Walden Media's family comedy "Fairy" could end up with the higher gross. It dropped only 29% this weekend, bringing its total gross to $26.1 million. "Legion," meanwhile, plummeted 61% and has total ticket sales of $28.6 million. However, "Legion" cost Sony Pictures only about $25 million, while "Tooth Fairy" cost $48 million.

Here are the top 10 movies at the domestic box office, according to studio estimates and Hollywood.com:

Mel Gibson may not have the star power he used to, but he cannot be vanquished by a low-budget romantic comedy.

Thriller "Edge of Darkness," which marked the controversial star's return to the big screen after a 7-year absence, sold $17.1 million in tickets in the U.S. and Canada this weekend, according to an estimate from distributor Warner Bros. That's on the high end of expectations based on pre-release surveys and a decent start given that Warner paid $27 million for domestic distribution rights to GK Films, which financed the picture.

Still, there's no doubt that Gibson's star has faded somewhat, accelerated no doubt by his infamous 2006 alcohol-fueled rant against Jews. The debut of "Edge of Darkness" is the lowest for any film starring Gibson since 1995's "Braveheart," despite substantial ticket-price increases over the last 15 years. Of those who attended, the majority were older than 35, and 70% said Gibson was the primary appeal, according to exit polls.

Audiences gave the picture an above-average grade of B+, according to market research firm CinemaScore, meaning word-of-mouth should be good and could easily take the film to more than $40 million, ultimately.

Its only new competition, Walt Disney Studios' romantic comedy "When in Rome," starring Kristen Bell and Josh Duhamel, debuted to a less-impressive $12.1 million. The so-so start for the modestly budgeted picture was a bit better than other recent disappointing romantic comedies, such as "Leap Year," which started with just $9.2 million.

"Avatar" continued its winning ways, as ticket sales declined a minuscule 14% to $30 million. Director James Cameron's 3-D box office phenomenon has now grossed an estimated $594.4 million domestically and will in the next few days become the first movie ever to surpass $601 million.

Of the films that opened last week, only 20th Century Fox and Walden Media's family comedy "The Tooth Fairy" held on well, dropping just 29% from its soft opening to $10 million. Sony Pictures' post-apocalyptic thriller "Legion" plummeted 61% from its healthy bow to $6.8 million, while CBS Films' "Extraordinary Measures" fell 57% to a once-again disappointing $2.6 million.

Fox Searchlight more than doubled the theater count of its indie country-music film "Crazy Heart" to 239, taking advantage of the string of awards star Jeff Bridges has won and anticipation of an Academy Award nomination Tuesday. It generated a solid $2.25 million this weekend, bringing its total so far to $6.6 million.

-- Ben Fritz

(Update, 10:50 a.m.: An earlier version of this post incorrectly said "Edge of Darkness" marked Mel Gibson's return to the big screen after a 17-year absence.)

Top photo: Mel Gibson in "Edge of Darkness." Credit: Warner Bros.

Bottom photo: Kristen Bell and Josh Duhamel in "When in Rome." Credit: Myles Aronowitz / Walt Disney Studios

This weekend will test the box-office appeal of one of Hollywood's most experienced and controversial stars against one of its newest.

After a seven-year absence from acting on the big screen, Mel Gibson returns in "Edge of Darkness," an action thriller along the lines of movies in the 1990s he starred in such as "Conspiracy Theory" and "Payback." Many in Hollywood are wondering not just whether moviegoers will flock back to a Gibson film after his long absence, but how many will remember or care about his alcohol-fueled rant about Jews in 2006.

People who have seen surveys of potential moviegoers say that "Edge of Darkness" isn't generating too much excitement. It's expected to sell about $15 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada from Friday through Sunday, lower than the opening of any picture starring Gibson since 1995's "Braveheart," despite substantial increases in ticket prices since he was last seen in theaters.

Still, distributor Warner Bros. paid $27 million to acquire domestic rights to the movie from GK Films, which fully financed it, meaning it could be a modest success if word of mouth is good and it plays well for several weeks.

The one audience segment significantly more interested in "Darkness" than any other is men over 30, a sign that those who warmly remember Gibson's 1980s and '90s action pictures are still his biggest fans.

Walt Disney Studios' "When in Rome" is appealing to the exact opposite audience: women under 20. The movie, which stars Kristen Bell in her largest role in a romantic comedy since she shot to fame with the 2004-2007 cult favorite TV show "Veronica Mars," was previously tracking far behind "Edge of Darkness." However, in recent days interest in "When In Rome" has grown to the point where the low-budget movie could rival Gibson's movie in the $15-million range.

For the seventh weekend in a row, however, 20th Century Fox's 3-D smash "Avatar" is certain to be No. 1. If it continues the same 15% to 20% drops it has experienced for the last few weeks, James Cameron's science-fiction epic will likely gross a little less than $30 million this weekend, bringing its domestic total close to $600 million.

CBS Films is hoping its "Extraordinary Measures," which debuted to a very weak $6 million this past weekend, experiences a modest decline based on strong word of mouth. Fox and Walden Media have the same goal for family comedy "Tooth Fairy," which opened to an unimpressive $14 million. Both pictures got average grades of A- from opening weekend audiences, according to market research firm CinemaScore.

Sony Pictures may be looking at a bigger drop for its post-apocalyptic picture "Legion," which had a solid debut of $17.5 million but got an average audience grade of just C-.

--Ben Fritz

Top photo: Ray Winstone and Mel Gibson in "Edge of Darkness." Credit: Warner Bros.

Bottom photo: Kristen Bell and Danny DeVito in "When in Rome." Credit: Myles Aronowitz / Touchstone Pictures.

"Extraordinary Measures" looked a lot like "The Blind Side" at the box office this weekend. Except it made a lot less money.

Just like the Sandra Bullock box-office phenomenon, CBS Films' first release played best in small towns in the Southeast, Midwest and Mountain states, drew crowds that tilted heavily older and female, and got positive reactions from those who attended on opening day (in this case, an average grade of A-minus, according to market research firm CinemaScore).

That gives the media company best known for its broadcast network good reason to believe that "Extraordinary Measures," an inspirational drama starring Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser, will show excellent staying power in the coming weeks. "The Blind Side," after all, has grossed more than six times its $34.1-million opening take and is still chugging along with a studio-estimated $4.5 million on its eleventh weekend.

It would take a "Blind Side"-caliber run, however, for "Extraordinary Measures" to recover from an anemic $7-million debut. That's weak for a movie that cost $31 million to produce, particularly because it was given a huge marketing push by CBS on its television network and outdoor billboards.

It wasn't the only disappointment this weekend, though it was the biggest. 20th Century Fox and Walden Media's family comedy "The Tooth Fairy" opened to $14.5 million. That's a soft showing given the movie's $48-million budget and well below the debuts of the last two family comedies starring Dwayne Johnson, "Race to Witch Mountain" and "The Game Plan." Both those movies were for Walt Disney Studios, however, giving Fox and Walden the bad luck of Johnson's weakest performer in the genre.

Sony Pictures had the one solidly performing new picture this weekend, as the post-apocalyptic thriller "Legion," from its genre label Screen Gems, opened to $18 million. It cost about $25 million to produce.

"Avatar" grossed an additional $107 million overseas, combined with $36 million in the U.S. and Canada, bringing its worldwide total to $1.841 billion. It's just $2 million away from passing the $1.843-billion worldwide gross record set by "Titanic" in 1998, a mark it will easily pass Monday. Of course, with 12 years of ticket price inflation and surcharges on the vast majority of screens where most moviegoers are seeing the new film in 3-D, "Avatar" still lags far behind in attendance.

Declines were 25% or less in every major market around the world except China, where "Avatar" ticket sales fell 34% after the government unexpectedly yanked it off of every 2-D screen where it was playing this week.

Here are the top 10 movies in the U.S. and Canada, according to studio estimates and Hollywood.com:

The No. 1 broadcast network got a lesson in big screen disappointment this weekend.

"Extraordinary Measures," the first release from CBS Films, debuted to an anemic $7 million, according to a studio estimate. "Avatar," meanwhile, once again dominated the box office charts with a very small decline, while Sony Pictures' post-apocalyptic thriller "Legion" had a good launch and 20th Century Fox and Walden Media's family comedy "The Tooth Fairy" started softly.

Continuing a string of underperforming adult dramas in 2009, "Measures,' which stars Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser, failed to find much of an audience despite an extensive marketing campaign undertaken largely on CBS' own television shows and outdoor billboards.

The movie, which cost $31 million to produce, performed best in smaller towns in the Southeast and Midwest and particularly poorly in Los Angeles and New York City. In a glimmer of good news, the audience was mostly older and female, a demographic that turns out more often after a movie's first weekend than others, and the average grade by those who did attend was A-, meaning word-of-mouth should be good.

The news was just a little better for "Tooth Fairy," the new family comedy starring Dwayne Johnson that was co-financed by 20th Century Fox and Walden Media at a cost of $48 million. It opened to an unimpressive $14.5 million, below such recent family comedies starring Johnson as "Race to Witch Mountain" and "The Game Plan," which started with $24.4 million and $23 million, respectively.

"Legion," from Sony's low-budget genre label Screen Gems, sold $18.2 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada, a good debut for a movie that cost about $25 million to produce. Unsurprisingly, the bloody and effects-heavy thriller drew a mostly male crowd.

Once again, however, the big winner at the box office was "Avatar," which dominated for the sixth weekend in a row with a spectacular $36 million estimated domestic take, bringing its total to $552.8 million. Ticket sales declined only 16%, showing that the big budget 3-D blockbuster from director James Cameron isn't slowing down at all as it surpassed "The Dark Knight" this weekend to become the second highest grossing movie in the U.S. and Canada ever, not accounting for ticket price inflation. It should pass the $600.8 million total of the No. 1 movie, Cameron's "Titanic," in the next two weeks.

In a limited release of 448 theaters, Christian teen movie "To Save a Life" had a decent $1.5 million opening. The movie, which was released by IDP/Samuel Goldwyn Films, cost only $500,000 to produce and saw its strongest ticket sales in smaller markets in Texas, Florida and Georgia, as well as Oceanside, Calif., outside of San Diego.

Both major films that opened last weekend, "The Book of Eli" and "The Lovely Bones," saw average declines of 48%, indicating that they're neither falling off quickly nor showing particularly strong momentum. Post-apocalyptic adventure "Eli," which was financed by Alcon Entertainment and distributed by Warner Bros, is at a healthy total of $62 million after 10 days, while Paramount's adaptation of the bestselling book "Bones," directed by Peter Jackson of "Lord of the Rings" fame, is at a so-so $31.6 million.

-- Ben Fritz

Bottom photo: Randy Wayne and Deja Kreutzberg in "To Save a Life." Photo credit: C. Clifford Jones / Samuel Goldwyn Films

With "Avatar" set to rule the box office for the sixth  consecutive weekend, the bigger news will be how the first release from Hollywood newcomer CBS Films, "Extraordinary Measures,"  fares in its debut run. And its prospects appear dim as it opens against other new entries "Legion," an apocalyptic action movie from Sony Pictures, and family comedy "Tooth Fairy" from 20th Century Fox and Walden Media.

According to people who have seen pre-release audience polling, CBS' inspirational drama "Extraordinary Measures," which stars Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser, will sell between $5 million and $7 million worth of tickets from Friday through Sunday in the U.S. and Canada.

That's a very soft start even given the adult drama's modest production budget of $31 million. CBS Films, the start-up movie division of CBS Corp., has marketed "Extraordinary Measures" aggressively on television and on billboards. It's aiming to fill a niche in the market for mid-budget pictures and use them to provide additional content for its Showtime pay cable channel. (For more on CBS Films' strategy, see this story.)

Most interested moviegoers appear to be women over 30, according to surveys -- a demographic that is often tough to get out on opening weekend but does attend films in later weeks if word of mouth is good.

Healthier but far from sensational launches appear to be in the making for "Legion," starring Paul Bettany, and "Tooth Fairy," starring Dwayne Johnson.

The effects-heavy "Legion" is expected to open to about $20 million, a solid start for a film from Sony's low-budget genre label Screen Gems. 

"Tooth Fairy," which was co-financed by Fox and family entertainment company Walden Media, has somewhat less certain prospects. The kids' comedy, which cost $48 million to produce, should open to about $15 million, a so-so start given its budget. That's less than the last two family movies starring Johnson, "Race to Witch Mountain" and "The Game Plan," which opened to $24.4 million and $23 million, respectively.

After six spectacular weeks, there's no reason to doubt that "Avatar" will continue its patten of modest drops of about 20%. That means it should sell a little more than $30 million worth of tickets this weekend, bringing its total domestic take to $520 million.

Overseas, "Avatar" has collected $1.18 billion as of Wednesday and should surpass the all-time record of $1.24 billion -- not accounting for ticket price inflation and exchange rates -- set 12 years ago by "Titanic," which was also directed by James Cameron. The movie will take a slightly larger than expected dip abroad this weekend, however, having unexpectedly lost all its 2-D screens in China.

Paramount Pictures will also be closely watching the second weekend performance of "The Lovely Bones" after its solid start last weekend. To make a success out of its big-screen adaptation of the bestselling book -- which cost $63 million to produce -- the studio is counting on good buzz among its target audience of young women to drive a relatively modest second-weekend drop.

-- Ben Fritz

Top photo: Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser in "Extraordinary Measures." Credit: CBS Films

Bottom photo: Dwayne Johnson in "Tooth Fairy." Credit: Diyah Pera / 20th Century Fox

If there were any doubts that "Avatar" would post the biggest total box-office numbers of all time, they were erased this weekend.

With a decline of only 15% in the U.S. and Canada over the Martin Luther King Day weekend, a $54.5-million four-day domestic gross and another $129 million overseas, director James Cameron's 3-D blockbuster is now certain to surpass the marks set by his own "Titanic" 11 years ago.

As of today, "Avatar" has grossed $1.12 billion internationally and $505 million domestically. Within the next week, it will surpass the $1.24 billion that "Titanic" collected overseas. Shortly thereafter, it should pass the 1997-98 film's domestic total of $600.8 million.

Eleven years ago, of course, ticket prices were a lot cheaper -- the most recent estimated average ticket price was $7.46, compared with $4.69 in 1998. And most people are seeing "Avatar" in 3-D, where ticket prices are several dollars higher. The result: Far fewer people have seen "Avatar" than "Titanic" so far. "Avatar" has sold fewer than 70 million tickets in the U.S. and Canada; "Titanic" sold more than 125 million.

Overseas, comparisons are even tougher to make due to changing ticket prices and exchange rates in more than 100 countries.

If Cameron's new picture keeps experiencing minuscule 15% to 20% drops each weekend, as executives at distributor 20th Century Fox predict it will, "Avatar" will not only surpass the monetary records of "Titanic" but also gain significant ground in attendance. Just how far it will go is still impossible to say, but with last night's win for best dramatic picture at the Golden Globes, it's likely that even the most tent-pole-averse moviegoers are becoming interested, while fanboys are still going multiple times.

Although the success of "Avatar" is lining the pockets of Fox and co-financiers Dune Entertainment and Ingenious Film Partners, it is not sucking the rest of the market dry. "The Book of Eli" and "The Lovely Bones" both had healthy debuts in wide release this weekend, collecting $38 million and $20.5 million, respectively, from Friday through Monday. Though the audience for "Eli" tilted toward young men, it was broader than the audience for "Bones," which was predominantly young and female.  Alcon Entertainment and Warner Bros. have reason to be confident that "Eli" will hold up in coming weeks, but Paramount's "Bones" may not generate much interest beyond its core fan base. (For more on the openings of "The Book of Eli" and "The Lovely Bones," along with "The Spy Next Door," see our initial box office post.)

In limited release, the well-reviewed Leo Tolstoy biopic "The Last Station" opened to a solid $98,723 in three theaters from Friday to Monday.

Though there was very little bad news for movie studios this weekend, total grosses were down 13% through Sunday from the same weekend last year, according to Hollywood.com. Big gains at the box office will be difficult in the next several months, as the winter of 2009 was huge.

Here are the top 10 movies at the domestic box office, according to studio estimates and Hollywood.com. Rankings are based on four-day grosses, but percentage declines are on a three-day basis, since last Monday was not a holiday.

There's still no stopping "Avatar" at the box office, but its continued dominance didn't keep "The Book of Eli" and "The Lovely Bones" from finding more than enough moviegoers over a very healthy Martin Luther King-holiday weekend.

The James Cameron-directed blockbuster, "Avatar," sold $54.6 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada from Friday through Sunday, according to an estimate from distributor 20th Century Fox, bringing its domestic total to a phenomenal $505 million. On a three-day basis, its receipts dropped only 15%.

That tiny decline indicates there's no end in sight at the box office for "Avatar," which won best dramatic picture and best director Golden Globe awards last night. It's already the third-biggest movie of all time domestically, not accounting for ticket-price inflation, and now looks likely to best Cameron's own "Titanic" for the No. 1 spot.

Overseas, "Avatar" added an additional $125 million through Sunday, thanks in part to a strong opening in Italy, bringing its foreign total to $1.15 billion and total worldwide ticket sales to $1.655 billion. By the end of the week, it will likely surpass the $1.84 billion grossed by "Titanic" around the globe in 1998.

"The Book of Eli" collected $38 million over the four-day weekend, right in line with expectations and a very healthy start given its $80-million production budget. The religious-themed action drama starring Denzel Washington drew a heavily young male audience and garnered a solid average audience grade of B+, according to market research firm CinemaScore.

It marks a second straight success for independent financier Alcon Entertainment, which paid for the movie, after its unexpected smash, "The Blind Side."

Despite a poor performance at three theaters over the last month, "The Lovely Bones" found the young female audience Paramount Pictures was targeting and grossed $20.5 million from Friday through Monday as it expanded nationwide. That's a good start given its production budget of $63 million, after tax rebates, but it remains to be seen if the Peter Jackson-directed adaptation of the bestselling book can hold well after drawing a narrowly targeted crowd of teen and college-aged girls. Mixed reviews and the movie's poor performance in limited release indicate that it will not draw many adults.

Paramount is hoping it has a smaller-scale "Twilight" on its hands, but with a good but not great average audience grade of B, it's unclear whether word of mouth will be enough to keep the movie playing well in the coming weeks.

The Jackie Chan family comedy "The Spy Next Door," which Lionsgate released for financier Relativity Media, had a so-so debut of $13 million over the four-day weekend. The overwhelmingly family audience gave the movie a strong average grade of A-.

Of the movies that opened last weekend, romantic comedy "Leap Year" had a decent hold of 37%, based on Sunday's estimate from Universal Pictures, while Lionsgate's horror flick, "Daybreakers," plunged 68% and the Weinstein Co.'s Michael Cera comedy, "Youth in Revolt," dropped off 56%.

-- Ben Fritz

Top photo: Denzel Washington in "The Book of Eli." Credit: David Lee / Warner Bros.

Bottom photo: Saoirse Ronan in "The Lovely Bones." Credit: DreamWorks Studios

"Avatar" will likely stay atop the box office once again this weekend, but Denzel Washington is looking like its first big challenger.

Post-apocalyptic drama "The Book of Eli" is certain to be the biggest new movie over the upcoming Martin Luther King Day holiday weekend, grossing significantly more than literary adaptation "The Lovely Bones" and family film "The Spy Next Door."

"Eli," which was financed by Alcon Entertainment and is being distributed by Warner Bros., is on track to generate about $40 million in ticket sales in the U.S. and Canada from Friday through Monday, according to several people who have seen pre-release moviegoer surveys. 

Alcon spent $80 million to produce the movie, which stars Denzel Washington. That's the biggest bet ever for small independent financier Alcon, which recently released the hit "The Blind Side."

If "Book of Eli" opens as well as surveys indicate, it should be another box office score for Alcon, albeit not nearly on the scale of "The Blind Side," which has reached $221 million in ticket sales to date.

While surveys indicate "Book of Eli" is generating interest primarily among men, "The Lovely Bones" is being targeted exclusively at females, particularly teens and young women. The adaptation of the best-selling book, directed by Peter Jackson, has performed poorly in limited release over the last month, collecting less than $500,000 over nearly five weeks.

Paramount, which inherited the movie from its former subsidiary DreamWorks, had hoped to expand the "Lovely Bones" to more theaters, but held back due to weak reviews and ticket sales. With only the narrow audience of teen and college-aged girls interested in the movie, studio executives who follow box office tracking say the movie could gross anywhere from $10 million to $20 million over the four-day weekend.

"The Lovely Bones" cost $70 million to produce, indicating that only a debut at the top end of that range, followed by positive word-of-mouth to keep ticket sales going, will make it a financial success.

It will likely be in tight competition this weekend with Jackie Chan kids' comedy "The Spy Next Door," which was financed by Relativity Media and is being distributed by Lionsgate. The movie is generating decent interest among families and should collect around $15 million through Monday, a healthy performance given its low cost.

"Avatar," meanwhile, is poised to collect nearly as much over the four-day weekend as it did last Friday through Sunday: $50.3 million. The James Cameron-directed 3-D blockbuster has already grossed $446 million domestically and $974 million overseas. This weekend it will become only the second picture, along with Cameron's "Titanic," to sell more than $1 billion of tickets outside the U.S.

--Ben Fritz

Related:

Denzel Washington a Revelation in 'Book of Eli'

Young Women Targeted for 'Lovely Bones' Marketing Push

Top photo: Denzel Washington in "The Book of Eli." Credit: Warner Bros.

Bottom photo: Will Shadley, Jackie Chan, and Madeline Carroll (left to right) in "The Spy Next Door." Credit: Colleen Hayes / Lionsgate.