October 1st, 2009
This is the first week I’m doing playoff predictions for the 2009 season. I’ll keep this updated every week.To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
NY Jets |
82.64 |
13.34 |
3.26 |
0.76 |
New England |
8.68 |
44.36 |
31.36 |
15.6 |
Buffalo |
6.98 |
29.4 |
39.78 |
23.84 |
Miami |
1.7 |
12.9 |
25.6 |
59.8 |
AFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Baltimore |
66.76 |
23.22 |
9.92 |
0.1 |
Pittsburgh |
23.52 |
45.66 |
29.72 |
1.1 |
Cincinnati |
9.72 |
30.6 |
56.62 |
3.06 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.52 |
3.74 |
95.74 |
AFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Indianapolis |
97.4 |
2.16 |
0.44 |
0.0 |
Jacksonville |
1.42 |
54.3 |
28.0 |
16.28 |
Houston |
0.36 |
20.04 |
38.24 |
41.36 |
Tennessee |
0.82 |
23.5 |
33.32 |
42.36 |
AFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Denver |
75.24 |
23.34 |
1.34 |
0.08 |
San Diego |
24.08 |
67.06 |
7.42 |
1.44 |
Kansas City |
0.58 |
6.28 |
44.32 |
48.82 |
Oakland |
0.1 |
3.32 |
46.92 |
49.66 |
NFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
NY Giants |
53.94 |
30.24 |
13.68 |
2.14 |
Philadelphia |
32.18 |
35.36 |
23.5 |
8.96 |
Dallas |
12.04 |
26.74 |
41.7 |
19.52 |
Washington |
1.84 |
7.66 |
21.12 |
69.38 |
NFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Green Bay |
37.42 |
33.08 |
25.62 |
3.88 |
Chicago |
33.64 |
33.62 |
28.52 |
4.22 |
Minnesota |
28.42 |
30.86 |
36.08 |
4.64 |
Detroit |
0.52 |
2.44 |
9.78 |
87.26 |
NFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
New Orleans |
95.6 |
4.22 |
0.18 |
0.0 |
Atlanta |
4.3 |
79.6 |
13.5 |
2.6 |
Carolina |
0.08 |
9.74 |
53.1 |
37.08 |
Tampa Bay |
0.02 |
6.44 |
33.22 |
60.32 |
NFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
San Francisco |
49.96 |
33.06 |
14.9 |
2.08 |
Arizona |
35.8 |
37.06 |
23.48 |
3.66 |
Seattle |
13.56 |
26.64 |
48.9 |
10.9 |
St Louis |
0.68 |
3.24 |
12.72 |
83.36 |
Generated: Thu Oct 01 17:06:26 EDT 2009
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
Indianapolis |
66.52 |
19.72 |
7.5 |
3.66 |
1.06 |
0.68 |
99.14 |
Denver |
11.7 |
25.44 |
21.84 |
16.26 |
10.28 |
6.26 |
91.78 |
Baltimore |
10.1 |
20.92 |
20.1 |
15.64 |
10.98 |
7.62 |
85.36 |
NY Jets |
7.36 |
19.1 |
25.88 |
30.3 |
2.92 |
3.5 |
89.06 |
Pittsburgh |
1.74 |
5.5 |
8.66 |
7.62 |
18.24 |
15.06 |
56.82 |
San Diego |
1.62 |
5.7 |
8.18 |
8.58 |
18.4 |
15.8 |
58.28 |
Cincinnati |
0.38 |
1.44 |
3.28 |
4.62 |
7.14 |
10.16 |
27.02 |
Jacksonville |
0.3 |
0.38 |
0.46 |
0.28 |
14.82 |
14.0 |
30.24 |
New England |
0.16 |
1.12 |
1.92 |
5.48 |
4.82 |
6.94 |
20.44 |
Buffalo |
0.06 |
0.4 |
1.38 |
5.14 |
2.58 |
4.72 |
14.28 |
Tennessee |
0.06 |
0.1 |
0.26 |
0.4 |
3.7 |
6.34 |
10.86 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.18 |
0.1 |
3.9 |
5.42 |
9.68 |
Miami |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.24 |
1.44 |
0.4 |
1.48 |
3.58 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.12 |
0.42 |
0.48 |
1.16 |
2.22 |
Oakland |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.24 |
0.74 |
1.08 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.12 |
0.16 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
New Orleans |
64.38 |
18.88 |
9.84 |
2.5 |
1.76 |
1.06 |
98.42 |
NY Giants |
14.78 |
22.62 |
13.38 |
3.16 |
17.66 |
10.6 |
82.2 |
Philadelphia |
5.08 |
14.74 |
10.2 |
2.16 |
19.22 |
14.44 |
65.84 |
Green Bay |
4.32 |
11.38 |
14.62 |
7.1 |
10.26 |
11.4 |
59.08 |
Chicago |
3.22 |
9.82 |
14.42 |
6.18 |
10.46 |
12.0 |
56.1 |
Minnesota |
2.8 |
8.56 |
11.84 |
5.22 |
8.52 |
10.44 |
47.38 |
Dallas |
2.34 |
4.72 |
3.96 |
1.02 |
15.06 |
15.3 |
42.4 |
San Francisco |
0.96 |
3.5 |
8.54 |
36.96 |
1.28 |
3.22 |
54.46 |
Arizona |
0.9 |
3.46 |
8.8 |
22.64 |
2.6 |
3.68 |
42.08 |
Atlanta |
0.98 |
1.44 |
1.16 |
0.72 |
9.18 |
10.8 |
24.28 |
Washington |
0.18 |
0.34 |
0.74 |
0.58 |
2.76 |
4.1 |
8.7 |
Seattle |
0.02 |
0.42 |
2.22 |
10.9 |
0.78 |
1.62 |
15.96 |
Detroit |
0.02 |
0.1 |
0.16 |
0.24 |
0.22 |
0.84 |
1.58 |
Carolina |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.38 |
0.66 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.68 |
Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.04 |
0.12 |
0.18 |
Generated: Thu Oct 01 17:06:26 EDT 2009
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
December 23rd, 2008
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
New England |
24.1 |
60.86 |
15.04 |
0.0 |
Miami |
60.86 |
15.04 |
24.1 |
0.0 |
NY Jets |
15.04 |
24.1 |
60.86 |
0.0 |
Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
AFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Pittsburgh |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Baltimore |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
53.7 |
46.3 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
46.3 |
53.7 |
AFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Tennessee |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Indianapolis |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
AFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
San Diego |
77.74 |
22.26 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Denver |
22.26 |
77.74 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
NY Giants |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Philadelphia |
0.0 |
74.56 |
6.84 |
18.6 |
Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
72.58 |
27.42 |
Dallas |
0.0 |
25.44 |
20.58 |
53.98 |
NFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Minnesota |
65.62 |
34.38 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Chicago |
34.38 |
65.62 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Carolina |
54.5 |
45.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Atlanta |
45.5 |
54.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Arizona |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 23 16:15:33 EST 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
Tennessee |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Pittsburgh |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
60.86 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
60.86 |
New England |
0.0 |
0.0 |
24.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
6.86 |
30.96 |
NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
15.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.74 |
18.78 |
San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
77.74 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
77.74 |
Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
22.26 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
22.26 |
Indianapolis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
89.4 |
89.4 |
Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
NY Giants |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Carolina |
0.0 |
54.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
45.5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Atlanta |
0.0 |
45.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
53.52 |
0.98 |
100.0 |
Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
65.62 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
65.62 |
Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
34.38 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.12 |
37.5 |
Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
62.9 |
62.9 |
Dallas |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.98 |
24.46 |
25.44 |
Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8.54 |
8.54 |
Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 23 16:15:33 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
December 16th, 2008
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Miami |
56.4 |
18.9 |
24.7 |
0.0 |
New England |
8.5 |
55.28 |
36.22 |
0.0 |
NY Jets |
35.1 |
25.82 |
39.08 |
0.0 |
Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
AFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Pittsburgh |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Baltimore |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
77.78 |
22.22 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
22.22 |
77.78 |
AFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Tennessee |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Indianapolis |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
98.18 |
1.82 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.82 |
98.18 |
AFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Denver |
90.46 |
9.54 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Diego |
9.54 |
90.46 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
93.2 |
6.8 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
6.8 |
93.2 |
NFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
NY Giants |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Dallas |
0.0 |
49.8 |
40.62 |
9.58 |
Philadelphia |
0.0 |
50.2 |
39.72 |
10.08 |
Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
19.66 |
80.34 |
NFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Minnesota |
83.86 |
16.14 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Chicago |
16.14 |
83.86 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Carolina |
79.68 |
12.38 |
7.94 |
0.0 |
Tampa Bay |
10.66 |
48.8 |
40.54 |
0.0 |
Atlanta |
9.66 |
38.82 |
51.52 |
0.0 |
New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Arizona |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
97.58 |
2.42 |
0.0 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
2.42 |
96.96 |
0.62 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.62 |
99.38 |
Generated: Tue Dec 16 20:43:49 EST 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
Tennessee |
52.0 |
48.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Pittsburgh |
48.0 |
52.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
56.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.08 |
58.48 |
NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
32.86 |
2.24 |
0.14 |
4.9 |
40.14 |
Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.24 |
88.22 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
90.46 |
New England |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8.5 |
0.0 |
2.24 |
15.78 |
26.52 |
San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
9.54 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
9.54 |
Indianapolis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
92.0 |
7.12 |
99.12 |
Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5.62 |
70.12 |
75.74 |
Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
NY Giants |
49.76 |
44.1 |
6.14 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Carolina |
50.24 |
27.48 |
1.96 |
0.0 |
9.98 |
8.86 |
98.52 |
Minnesota |
0.0 |
8.1 |
64.84 |
10.92 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
83.86 |
Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
10.66 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
31.36 |
23.22 |
65.24 |
Atlanta |
0.0 |
9.66 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
30.02 |
29.42 |
69.1 |
Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
10.92 |
89.08 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
16.14 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.24 |
16.38 |
Dallas |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
23.0 |
18.3 |
41.3 |
Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5.64 |
19.96 |
25.6 |
Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 16 20:43:48 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
December 10th, 2008
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Miami |
60.64 |
21.9 |
17.38 |
0.08 |
New England |
9.18 |
50.82 |
38.9 |
1.1 |
NY Jets |
30.18 |
26.86 |
41.2 |
1.76 |
Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.42 |
2.52 |
97.06 |
AFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Pittsburgh |
86.56 |
13.44 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Baltimore |
13.44 |
86.56 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
97.16 |
2.84 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.84 |
97.16 |
AFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Tennessee |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Indianapolis |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
95.1 |
4.9 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
4.9 |
95.1 |
AFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Denver |
91.7 |
8.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Diego |
8.3 |
91.66 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
Oakland |
0.0 |
0.04 |
86.14 |
13.82 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
13.82 |
86.18 |
NFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
NY Giants |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Philadelphia |
0.0 |
48.46 |
31.4 |
20.14 |
Washington |
0.0 |
30.18 |
30.18 |
39.64 |
Dallas |
0.0 |
21.36 |
38.42 |
40.22 |
NFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Minnesota |
62.22 |
35.66 |
2.12 |
0.0 |
Chicago |
33.34 |
52.54 |
14.12 |
0.0 |
Green Bay |
4.44 |
11.8 |
83.76 |
0.0 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Carolina |
63.62 |
27.06 |
9.32 |
0.0 |
Tampa Bay |
24.14 |
41.16 |
33.72 |
0.98 |
Atlanta |
12.24 |
31.6 |
42.52 |
13.64 |
New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.18 |
14.44 |
85.38 |
NFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Arizona |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
98.36 |
1.64 |
0.0 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
1.26 |
76.34 |
22.4 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.38 |
22.02 |
77.6 |
Generated: Wed Dec 10 11:31:27 EST 2008 AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
Tennessee |
80.86 |
19.14 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Pittsburgh |
19.14 |
67.42 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.98 |
11.42 |
99.96 |
Baltimore |
0.0 |
13.34 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
13.4 |
66.7 |
93.54 |
Miami |
0.0 |
0.04 |
59.98 |
0.62 |
0.02 |
0.98 |
61.64 |
NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.06 |
24.72 |
5.4 |
0.1 |
1.78 |
32.06 |
Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
6.06 |
85.64 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
91.7 |
New England |
0.0 |
0.0 |
9.14 |
0.04 |
0.48 |
4.74 |
14.4 |
Indianapolis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
84.02 |
14.38 |
98.4 |
San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8.3 |
Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
NY Giants |
72.16 |
27.42 |
0.42 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Carolina |
27.06 |
36.22 |
0.34 |
0.0 |
23.76 |
9.06 |
96.44 |
Tampa Bay |
0.48 |
20.14 |
3.44 |
0.08 |
28.44 |
19.08 |
71.66 |
Atlanta |
0.22 |
11.56 |
0.46 |
0.0 |
28.42 |
16.2 |
56.86 |
Arizona |
0.08 |
3.8 |
73.1 |
23.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.86 |
18.36 |
43.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
62.24 |
Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.88 |
29.46 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
33.44 |
Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
4.44 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
4.44 |
Dallas |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
7.9 |
12.9 |
20.8 |
Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
6.42 |
22.4 |
28.82 |
Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5.06 |
18.34 |
23.4 |
New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Wed Dec 10 11:31:27 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
December 4th, 2008
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
NY Jets |
54.12 |
27.38 |
16.6 |
1.9 |
Miami |
37.0 |
32.06 |
27.9 |
3.04 |
New England |
8.56 |
37.52 |
46.74 |
7.18 |
Buffalo |
0.32 |
3.04 |
8.76 |
87.88 |
AFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Pittsburgh |
88.74 |
11.26 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Baltimore |
11.26 |
88.74 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
97.02 |
2.98 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.98 |
97.02 |
AFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Tennessee |
99.7 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Indianapolis |
0.3 |
99.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
78.76 |
21.24 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
21.24 |
78.76 |
AFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Denver |
87.26 |
12.74 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Diego |
12.72 |
86.06 |
1.06 |
0.16 |
Oakland |
0.02 |
0.94 |
80.34 |
18.7 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.26 |
18.6 |
81.14 |
NFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
NY Giants |
99.92 |
0.08 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Washington |
0.0 |
50.1 |
32.3 |
17.6 |
Dallas |
0.08 |
31.62 |
41.16 |
27.14 |
Philadelphia |
0.0 |
18.2 |
26.54 |
55.26 |
NFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Minnesota |
53.92 |
38.7 |
7.38 |
0.0 |
Chicago |
28.46 |
36.48 |
35.06 |
0.0 |
Green Bay |
17.62 |
24.82 |
57.56 |
0.0 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Tampa Bay |
33.9 |
28.42 |
37.22 |
0.46 |
Carolina |
35.2 |
33.74 |
28.54 |
2.52 |
Atlanta |
30.9 |
36.52 |
26.38 |
6.2 |
New Orleans |
0.0 |
1.32 |
7.86 |
90.82 |
NFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Arizona |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
78.14 |
20.3 |
1.56 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
15.62 |
64.7 |
19.68 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
6.24 |
15.0 |
78.76 |
Generated: Thu Dec 04 14:02:59 EST 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
Tennessee |
85.08 |
13.46 |
1.16 |
0.0 |
0.26 |
0.04 |
100.0 |
Pittsburgh |
14.6 |
67.86 |
6.2 |
0.08 |
1.94 |
8.48 |
99.16 |
NY Jets |
0.12 |
7.0 |
42.56 |
4.44 |
1.78 |
9.52 |
65.42 |
Baltimore |
0.06 |
10.08 |
1.1 |
0.02 |
9.9 |
54.5 |
75.66 |
Miami |
0.0 |
1.12 |
35.54 |
0.34 |
0.26 |
6.88 |
44.14 |
Indianapolis |
0.14 |
0.16 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
84.8 |
11.4 |
96.5 |
Denver |
0.0 |
0.1 |
5.02 |
82.14 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
87.26 |
New England |
0.0 |
0.22 |
8.12 |
0.22 |
1.04 |
8.56 |
18.16 |
San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
12.72 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
12.76 |
Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.56 |
0.9 |
Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
NY Giants |
84.46 |
15.4 |
0.06 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
99.96 |
Carolina |
11.9 |
23.1 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
27.04 |
17.82 |
80.06 |
Tampa Bay |
2.56 |
29.84 |
1.48 |
0.02 |
17.78 |
20.86 |
72.54 |
Atlanta |
1.04 |
28.32 |
1.54 |
0.0 |
27.22 |
16.16 |
74.28 |
Arizona |
0.0 |
2.74 |
76.26 |
21.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.56 |
16.82 |
36.54 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
53.96 |
Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.4 |
25.06 |
0.0 |
0.18 |
28.64 |
Dallas |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
11.22 |
15.26 |
26.56 |
Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.24 |
17.38 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
17.62 |
Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
15.34 |
21.4 |
36.74 |
Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.22 |
7.0 |
8.22 |
New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.14 |
1.28 |
1.42 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Thu Dec 04 14:02:59 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
November 25th, 2008
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats. Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
NY Jets |
64.86 |
22.26 |
11.48 |
1.4 |
Miami |
24.22 |
37.3 |
32.04 |
6.44 |
New England |
9.46 |
35.64 |
42.94 |
11.96 |
Buffalo |
1.46 |
4.8 |
13.54 |
80.2 |
AFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Pittsburgh |
91.82 |
8.18 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Baltimore |
8.18 |
91.78 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.04 |
93.8 |
6.16 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
6.16 |
93.84 |
AFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Tennessee |
99.5 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Indianapolis |
0.5 |
99.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.02 |
58.5 |
41.48 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.08 |
41.4 |
58.52 |
AFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
San Diego |
56.36 |
42.18 |
1.46 |
0.0 |
Denver |
43.4 |
55.5 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
Oakland |
0.22 |
2.28 |
92.7 |
4.8 |
Kansas City |
0.02 |
0.04 |
4.74 |
95.2 |
NFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
NY Giants |
92.62 |
6.2 |
1.18 |
0.0 |
Washington |
6.6 |
70.68 |
17.86 |
4.86 |
Dallas |
0.74 |
15.68 |
55.94 |
27.64 |
Philadelphia |
0.04 |
7.44 |
25.02 |
67.5 |
NFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Chicago |
66.98 |
21.2 |
11.82 |
0.0 |
Green Bay |
15.6 |
42.54 |
41.86 |
0.0 |
Minnesota |
17.42 |
36.26 |
46.32 |
0.0 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Carolina |
45.38 |
28.82 |
19.62 |
6.18 |
Atlanta |
20.48 |
33.86 |
32.48 |
13.18 |
Tampa Bay |
26.62 |
25.56 |
26.68 |
21.14 |
New Orleans |
7.52 |
11.76 |
21.22 |
59.5 |
NFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Arizona |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
52.76 |
41.3 |
5.94 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
39.2 |
47.54 |
13.26 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
8.04 |
11.16 |
80.8 |
Generated: Tue Nov 25 18:30:41 EST 2008 AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
Tennessee |
81.32 |
13.8 |
4.38 |
0.0 |
0.24 |
0.16 |
99.9 |
Pittsburgh |
13.58 |
49.6 |
28.52 |
0.12 |
1.08 |
3.04 |
95.94 |
NY Jets |
4.64 |
25.48 |
33.9 |
0.84 |
4.68 |
13.34 |
82.88 |
New England |
0.08 |
4.6 |
4.76 |
0.02 |
5.34 |
18.54 |
33.34 |
Baltimore |
0.08 |
3.96 |
4.12 |
0.02 |
8.54 |
31.62 |
48.34 |
Miami |
0.0 |
2.24 |
21.92 |
0.06 |
3.0 |
18.08 |
45.3 |
Indianapolis |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
76.74 |
12.66 |
89.9 |
San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
56.34 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
56.42 |
Denver |
0.0 |
0.02 |
1.06 |
42.32 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
43.44 |
Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.1 |
1.32 |
0.04 |
0.38 |
2.44 |
4.28 |
Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
NY Giants |
72.78 |
18.46 |
1.16 |
0.22 |
3.78 |
2.18 |
98.58 |
Carolina |
17.18 |
25.66 |
2.42 |
0.12 |
13.24 |
16.08 |
74.7 |
Tampa Bay |
3.48 |
17.74 |
5.18 |
0.22 |
8.2 |
14.72 |
49.54 |
Washington |
4.22 |
2.08 |
0.28 |
0.02 |
48.08 |
20.36 |
75.04 |
Arizona |
0.96 |
16.72 |
58.9 |
23.42 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Atlanta |
0.98 |
14.02 |
5.3 |
0.18 |
15.36 |
19.72 |
55.56 |
Chicago |
0.02 |
2.06 |
18.1 |
46.8 |
0.02 |
0.28 |
67.28 |
New Orleans |
0.04 |
2.66 |
3.92 |
0.9 |
1.12 |
7.3 |
15.94 |
Dallas |
0.28 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.02 |
8.34 |
15.06 |
24.14 |
Minnesota |
0.06 |
0.36 |
3.46 |
13.54 |
0.1 |
0.44 |
17.96 |
Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.04 |
14.56 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
15.6 |
Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
1.76 |
3.86 |
5.66 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Nov 25 18:30:41 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
November 18th, 2008
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.comSingle game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Miami |
60.92 |
30.42 |
7.56 |
1.1 |
NY Jets |
34.18 |
46.5 |
16.5 |
2.82 |
New England |
3.82 |
15.66 |
52.0 |
28.52 |
Buffalo |
1.08 |
7.42 |
23.94 |
67.56 |
AFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Pittsburgh |
94.02 |
5.84 |
0.14 |
0.0 |
Baltimore |
5.98 |
92.18 |
1.84 |
0.0 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
1.96 |
94.84 |
3.2 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.02 |
3.18 |
96.8 |
AFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Tennessee |
99.78 |
0.22 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Indianapolis |
0.22 |
96.66 |
3.1 |
0.02 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
2.94 |
63.04 |
34.02 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.18 |
33.86 |
65.96 |
AFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Denver |
63.36 |
36.52 |
0.12 |
0.0 |
San Diego |
36.56 |
62.96 |
0.44 |
0.04 |
Oakland |
0.06 |
0.42 |
72.62 |
26.9 |
Kansas City |
0.02 |
0.1 |
26.82 |
73.06 |
NFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
NY Giants |
80.46 |
14.36 |
4.06 |
1.12 |
Washington |
11.52 |
48.3 |
27.1 |
13.08 |
Philadelphia |
5.54 |
23.24 |
33.52 |
37.7 |
Dallas |
2.48 |
14.1 |
35.32 |
48.1 |
NFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Chicago |
52.02 |
28.94 |
19.04 |
0.0 |
Green Bay |
33.72 |
43.7 |
22.58 |
0.0 |
Minnesota |
14.26 |
27.36 |
58.38 |
0.0 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Carolina |
51.4 |
29.44 |
15.64 |
3.52 |
Tampa Bay |
32.72 |
35.9 |
22.48 |
8.9 |
Atlanta |
13.14 |
26.5 |
41.72 |
18.64 |
New Orleans |
2.74 |
8.16 |
20.16 |
68.94 |
NFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Arizona |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
50.52 |
39.82 |
9.66 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
37.7 |
46.1 |
16.2 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
11.78 |
14.08 |
74.14 |
Generated: Tue Nov 18 21:18:05 EST 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
Tennessee |
93.44 |
5.22 |
1.1 |
0.02 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
99.98 |
Pittsburgh |
5.3 |
57.32 |
27.82 |
3.58 |
1.22 |
1.76 |
97.0 |
Miami |
0.28 |
21.46 |
37.24 |
1.94 |
12.04 |
14.72 |
87.68 |
NY Jets |
0.88 |
9.92 |
18.1 |
5.28 |
14.0 |
21.6 |
69.78 |
Denver |
0.0 |
1.94 |
8.46 |
52.96 |
0.56 |
2.48 |
66.4 |
Baltimore |
0.0 |
1.98 |
3.0 |
1.0 |
9.36 |
17.44 |
32.78 |
New England |
0.02 |
1.82 |
1.66 |
0.32 |
4.44 |
10.68 |
18.94 |
Indianapolis |
0.08 |
0.12 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
54.76 |
20.9 |
75.88 |
San Diego |
0.0 |
0.08 |
1.76 |
34.72 |
1.38 |
4.7 |
42.64 |
Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.14 |
0.84 |
0.1 |
1.92 |
5.12 |
8.12 |
Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.42 |
0.5 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.12 |
0.14 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.06 |
0.08 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
NY Giants |
48.32 |
21.88 |
9.12 |
1.14 |
9.12 |
4.78 |
94.36 |
Carolina |
21.9 |
20.9 |
7.94 |
0.66 |
12.38 |
12.38 |
76.16 |
Arizona |
14.14 |
22.5 |
47.0 |
16.36 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
Tampa Bay |
7.24 |
17.06 |
8.1 |
0.32 |
12.46 |
16.0 |
61.18 |
Washington |
5.18 |
4.68 |
1.48 |
0.18 |
35.18 |
18.8 |
65.5 |
Philadelphia |
1.64 |
2.74 |
0.98 |
0.18 |
13.72 |
16.3 |
35.56 |
Atlanta |
1.02 |
6.82 |
5.08 |
0.22 |
7.68 |
12.86 |
33.68 |
Dallas |
0.5 |
0.92 |
1.02 |
0.04 |
8.54 |
14.34 |
25.36 |
Chicago |
0.02 |
1.08 |
11.16 |
39.76 |
0.1 |
0.68 |
52.8 |
Green Bay |
0.02 |
0.4 |
3.52 |
29.78 |
0.04 |
0.38 |
34.14 |
Minnesota |
0.02 |
0.4 |
2.84 |
11.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
14.86 |
New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.62 |
1.76 |
0.36 |
0.68 |
2.98 |
6.4 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Nov 18 21:18:05 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
November 12th, 2008
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com
Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Miami |
53.2 |
27.82 |
13.16 |
5.82 |
NY Jets |
25.6 |
27.6 |
26.68 |
20.12 |
New England |
12.14 |
24.26 |
31.76 |
31.84 |
Buffalo |
9.06 |
20.32 |
28.4 |
42.22 |
AFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Pittsburgh |
82.36 |
17.6 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
Baltimore |
17.6 |
81.96 |
0.44 |
0.0 |
Cleveland |
0.04 |
0.42 |
92.58 |
6.96 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.02 |
6.94 |
93.04 |
AFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Tennessee |
98.94 |
1.06 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Indianapolis |
1.04 |
87.22 |
10.56 |
1.18 |
Jacksonville |
0.02 |
9.64 |
64.9 |
25.44 |
Houston |
0.0 |
2.08 |
24.54 |
73.38 |
AFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
San Diego |
68.0 |
31.36 |
0.62 |
0.02 |
Denver |
31.9 |
65.56 |
2.46 |
0.08 |
Oakland |
0.1 |
2.7 |
74.0 |
23.2 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.38 |
22.92 |
76.7 |
NFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
NY Giants |
58.96 |
30.12 |
9.72 |
1.2 |
Washington |
34.2 |
44.56 |
17.94 |
3.3 |
Philadelphia |
6.46 |
21.58 |
54.36 |
17.6 |
Dallas |
0.38 |
3.74 |
17.98 |
77.9 |
NFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Chicago |
75.96 |
16.3 |
7.74 |
0.0 |
Minnesota |
14.22 |
51.88 |
33.9 |
0.0 |
Green Bay |
9.82 |
31.82 |
58.34 |
0.02 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
99.98 |
NFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Carolina |
51.94 |
29.02 |
16.08 |
2.96 |
Atlanta |
26.24 |
33.8 |
30.68 |
9.28 |
Tampa Bay |
20.14 |
30.48 |
35.0 |
14.38 |
New Orleans |
1.68 |
6.7 |
18.24 |
73.38 |
NFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Arizona |
99.74 |
0.26 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Seattle |
0.2 |
40.56 |
42.9 |
16.34 |
San Francisco |
0.04 |
43.58 |
37.66 |
18.72 |
St Louis |
0.02 |
15.6 |
19.44 |
64.94 |
Generated: Tue Nov 11 23:27:04 EST 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
Tennessee |
90.76 |
6.16 |
1.74 |
0.28 |
0.84 |
0.16 |
99.94 |
Pittsburgh |
5.56 |
41.34 |
25.78 |
9.68 |
3.08 |
4.78 |
90.22 |
Miami |
1.1 |
21.28 |
28.68 |
2.14 |
9.6 |
13.58 |
76.38 |
NY Jets |
1.18 |
8.82 |
12.24 |
3.36 |
9.26 |
13.98 |
48.84 |
Baltimore |
0.18 |
7.86 |
6.9 |
2.66 |
14.02 |
18.56 |
50.18 |
New England |
0.2 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
1.14 |
7.62 |
12.5 |
32.26 |
San Diego |
0.14 |
4.32 |
11.9 |
51.64 |
1.1 |
2.02 |
71.12 |
Indianapolis |
0.7 |
0.24 |
0.06 |
0.04 |
43.96 |
18.12 |
63.12 |
Buffalo |
0.18 |
3.84 |
4.6 |
0.44 |
9.08 |
12.14 |
30.28 |
Denver |
0.0 |
0.64 |
2.74 |
28.52 |
0.58 |
2.02 |
34.5 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.08 |
0.16 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
1.66 |
2.38 |
Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.12 |
0.4 |
0.52 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
NY Giants |
37.86 |
14.76 |
5.16 |
1.18 |
20.74 |
9.94 |
89.64 |
Washington |
21.98 |
9.32 |
2.42 |
0.48 |
34.74 |
13.4 |
82.34 |
Carolina |
20.2 |
25.46 |
5.7 |
0.58 |
11.64 |
12.82 |
76.4 |
Arizona |
6.46 |
13.24 |
37.3 |
42.74 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
99.74 |
Atlanta |
5.0 |
13.96 |
6.02 |
1.26 |
7.96 |
15.58 |
49.78 |
Tampa Bay |
3.62 |
11.44 |
4.2 |
0.88 |
7.78 |
16.58 |
44.5 |
Chicago |
2.0 |
6.44 |
30.64 |
36.88 |
0.18 |
0.7 |
76.84 |
Philadelphia |
2.28 |
3.06 |
0.92 |
0.2 |
13.72 |
20.78 |
40.96 |
Minnesota |
0.54 |
1.32 |
5.04 |
7.32 |
0.94 |
2.82 |
17.98 |
Dallas |
0.06 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
0.04 |
2.02 |
4.4 |
6.8 |
New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.6 |
0.74 |
0.34 |
0.28 |
2.78 |
4.74 |
Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.26 |
1.72 |
7.84 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
10.02 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Nov 11 23:27:04 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
November 8th, 2008
I’ll be more regular updating the weekly predictions through out the remainder of the season.
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com
Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Miami |
46.44 |
32.34 |
19.0 |
2.22 |
Buffalo |
30.16 |
34.1 |
29.2 |
6.54 |
NY Jets |
22.32 |
29.04 |
37.62 |
11.02 |
New England |
1.08 |
4.52 |
14.18 |
80.22 |
AFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Pittsburgh |
93.86 |
6.12 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
Baltimore |
6.14 |
90.98 |
2.84 |
0.04 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
2.88 |
92.02 |
5.1 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.02 |
5.12 |
94.86 |
AFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Tennessee |
98.32 |
1.66 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
Indianapolis |
1.62 |
77.56 |
16.8 |
4.02 |
Jacksonville |
0.02 |
11.76 |
42.08 |
46.14 |
Houston |
0.04 |
9.02 |
41.1 |
49.84 |
AFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
San Diego |
82.94 |
16.48 |
0.54 |
0.04 |
Denver |
16.76 |
75.7 |
7.22 |
0.32 |
Oakland |
0.3 |
7.18 |
79.46 |
13.06 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.64 |
12.78 |
86.58 |
NFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Washington |
41.34 |
35.32 |
20.32 |
3.02 |
NY Giants |
32.26 |
28.62 |
31.62 |
7.5 |
Philadelphia |
25.58 |
32.78 |
33.62 |
8.02 |
Dallas |
0.82 |
3.28 |
14.44 |
81.46 |
NFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Chicago |
77.96 |
16.66 |
5.38 |
0.0 |
Green Bay |
14.04 |
44.32 |
41.62 |
0.02 |
Minnesota |
8.0 |
39.02 |
52.92 |
0.06 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
99.92 |
NFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Carolina |
68.46 |
21.74 |
8.08 |
1.72 |
Tampa Bay |
13.56 |
31.54 |
35.4 |
19.5 |
Atlanta |
13.94 |
31.44 |
31.64 |
22.98 |
New Orleans |
4.04 |
15.28 |
24.88 |
55.8 |
NFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Arizona |
99.06 |
0.8 |
0.14 |
0.0 |
Seattle |
0.48 |
32.02 |
38.54 |
28.96 |
St Louis |
0.24 |
38.08 |
27.32 |
34.36 |
San Francisco |
0.22 |
29.1 |
34.0 |
36.68 |
Generated: Sat Nov 08 21:54:09 EST 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
Tennessee |
68.88 |
21.78 |
6.66 |
1.0 |
1.16 |
0.3 |
99.78 |
Pittsburgh |
26.24 |
42.98 |
17.18 |
7.46 |
2.42 |
1.66 |
97.94 |
Buffalo |
2.22 |
10.58 |
16.6 |
0.76 |
21.96 |
17.7 |
69.82 |
Miami |
0.82 |
12.28 |
31.2 |
2.14 |
16.72 |
16.14 |
79.3 |
NY Jets |
0.96 |
5.32 |
12.34 |
3.7 |
13.56 |
16.64 |
52.52 |
San Diego |
0.24 |
3.9 |
11.88 |
66.92 |
0.58 |
1.44 |
84.96 |
Baltimore |
0.22 |
2.44 |
2.36 |
1.12 |
17.94 |
17.94 |
42.02 |
Indianapolis |
0.42 |
0.5 |
0.42 |
0.28 |
22.12 |
19.56 |
43.3 |
Denver |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.78 |
15.9 |
0.66 |
1.96 |
19.38 |
New England |
0.0 |
0.12 |
0.54 |
0.42 |
1.26 |
2.44 |
4.78 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
2.32 |
3.46 |
Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.28 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.24 |
0.7 |
0.94 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
Carolina |
31.24 |
27.58 |
8.18 |
1.46 |
8.2 |
8.62 |
85.28 |
Washington |
23.8 |
12.98 |
3.98 |
0.58 |
28.28 |
14.3 |
83.92 |
NY Giants |
17.98 |
9.3 |
3.6 |
1.38 |
19.58 |
17.1 |
68.94 |
Philadelphia |
11.38 |
9.12 |
3.96 |
1.12 |
23.84 |
18.5 |
67.92 |
Arizona |
5.1 |
12.08 |
31.84 |
50.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
99.06 |
Chicago |
4.32 |
11.66 |
32.7 |
29.28 |
0.32 |
1.02 |
79.3 |
Tampa Bay |
3.04 |
6.48 |
3.12 |
0.92 |
7.7 |
14.36 |
35.62 |
Atlanta |
2.36 |
7.46 |
3.26 |
0.86 |
7.2 |
12.94 |
34.08 |
New Orleans |
0.26 |
1.68 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
1.66 |
5.26 |
10.96 |
Minnesota |
0.28 |
0.64 |
2.8 |
4.28 |
1.5 |
3.04 |
12.54 |
Green Bay |
0.1 |
0.7 |
4.98 |
8.26 |
0.14 |
0.72 |
14.9 |
Dallas |
0.14 |
0.32 |
0.22 |
0.14 |
1.58 |
4.14 |
6.54 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.46 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.48 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.24 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Sat Nov 08 21:54:09 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
October 12th, 2008
These are the first predictions for the 2008 season. They were computed before the start of the week 6 games and are posted in order to provide documentation of the prediction accuracy for the 2008 season. I think the predictions are putting a little too much stock in Miami, Tennessee and Arizona so early in the season. We’ll see.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Miami |
55.32 |
29.22 |
13.08 |
2.38 |
NY Jets |
22.8 |
32.16 |
31.18 |
13.86 |
Buffalo |
20.04 |
30.88 |
33.86 |
15.22 |
New England |
1.84 |
7.74 |
21.88 |
68.54 |
AFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Pittsburgh |
92.24 |
7.34 |
0.4 |
0.02 |
Baltimore |
7.4 |
83.06 |
8.34 |
1.2 |
Cincinnati |
0.34 |
6.56 |
52.1 |
41.0 |
Cleveland |
0.02 |
3.04 |
39.16 |
57.78 |
AFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Tennessee |
83.92 |
13.74 |
2.26 |
0.08 |
Indianapolis |
12.72 |
53.48 |
27.86 |
5.94 |
Jacksonville |
3.28 |
28.64 |
51.34 |
16.74 |
Houston |
0.08 |
4.14 |
18.54 |
77.24 |
AFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
San Diego |
66.34 |
32.08 |
1.58 |
0.0 |
Denver |
32.58 |
60.96 |
6.42 |
0.04 |
Oakland |
1.08 |
6.96 |
88.62 |
3.34 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.38 |
96.62 |
NFC EAST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Washington |
58.48 |
36.7 |
4.3 |
0.52 |
NY Giants |
38.52 |
45.24 |
12.5 |
3.74 |
Dallas |
2.38 |
12.24 |
52.48 |
32.9 |
Philadelphia |
0.62 |
5.82 |
30.72 |
62.84 |
NFC NORTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Chicago |
83.98 |
13.74 |
2.28 |
0.0 |
Minnesota |
12.92 |
61.12 |
25.82 |
0.14 |
Green Bay |
3.1 |
25.14 |
71.46 |
0.3 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.44 |
99.56 |
NFC SOUTH
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Carolina |
84.7 |
11.78 |
2.88 |
0.64 |
Tampa Bay |
8.1 |
37.5 |
34.38 |
20.02 |
New Orleans |
5.22 |
32.42 |
33.44 |
28.92 |
Atlanta |
1.98 |
18.3 |
29.3 |
50.42 |
NFC WEST
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
Arizona |
97.7 |
2.16 |
0.14 |
0.0 |
San Francisco |
1.56 |
69.7 |
22.64 |
6.1 |
Seattle |
0.66 |
22.06 |
54.36 |
22.92 |
St Louis |
0.08 |
6.08 |
22.86 |
70.98 |
Generated: Sun Oct 12 11:42:48 EDT 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
Tennessee |
30.52 |
22.56 |
20.08 |
10.76 |
3.04 |
3.9 |
90.86 |
Miami |
24.08 |
17.92 |
10.36 |
2.96 |
20.5 |
11.4 |
87.22 |
San Diego |
14.04 |
20.78 |
22.36 |
9.16 |
10.54 |
9.64 |
86.52 |
Pittsburgh |
9.16 |
12.54 |
17.76 |
52.78 |
0.16 |
0.36 |
92.76 |
Buffalo |
7.5 |
6.4 |
4.62 |
1.52 |
19.38 |
18.46 |
57.88 |
Denver |
6.38 |
9.16 |
10.16 |
6.88 |
16.68 |
15.62 |
64.88 |
NY Jets |
6.4 |
6.8 |
6.86 |
2.74 |
18.14 |
16.98 |
57.92 |
Indianapolis |
1.38 |
2.72 |
4.96 |
3.66 |
5.48 |
9.62 |
27.82 |
New England |
0.38 |
0.52 |
0.7 |
0.24 |
3.9 |
6.26 |
12.0 |
Baltimore |
0.06 |
0.12 |
0.62 |
6.6 |
0.44 |
1.58 |
9.42 |
Jacksonville |
0.04 |
0.32 |
1.08 |
1.84 |
0.88 |
3.42 |
7.58 |
Oakland |
0.06 |
0.16 |
0.42 |
0.44 |
0.72 |
2.38 |
4.18 |
Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.34 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.36 |
Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.06 |
0.14 |
0.36 |
0.58 |
Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
Washington |
52.12 |
5.88 |
0.42 |
0.06 |
36.56 |
4.16 |
99.2 |
NY Giants |
33.46 |
4.42 |
0.6 |
0.04 |
43.6 |
11.52 |
93.64 |
Carolina |
9.18 |
46.18 |
21.08 |
8.26 |
0.56 |
4.0 |
89.26 |
Chicago |
2.02 |
20.54 |
40.26 |
21.16 |
0.08 |
1.9 |
85.96 |
Arizona |
1.0 |
14.02 |
24.98 |
57.7 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
97.72 |
Dallas |
1.72 |
0.56 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
11.66 |
38.06 |
52.1 |
Tampa Bay |
0.14 |
3.36 |
3.2 |
1.4 |
1.04 |
8.4 |
17.54 |
Minnesota |
0.04 |
2.18 |
5.44 |
5.26 |
0.48 |
5.74 |
19.14 |
Philadelphia |
0.28 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
0.02 |
5.32 |
17.52 |
23.46 |
New Orleans |
0.04 |
1.62 |
1.74 |
1.82 |
0.36 |
5.14 |
10.72 |
Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.86 |
0.76 |
0.36 |
0.3 |
2.96 |
5.24 |
Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.2 |
1.18 |
1.72 |
0.02 |
0.42 |
3.54 |
San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.08 |
1.46 |
0.02 |
0.1 |
1.68 |
Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.66 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.72 |
St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Sun Oct 12 11:42:48 EDT 2008
Posted in Weeky Predictions | No Comments »