Bedard And The Budget
Took a little longer than usual, but Ken Rosenthal came through with the details of the incentives in Erik Bedard’s contract today. Here’s the nitty gritty, mostly per Rosenthal.
$1.25M base salary, guaranteed. $250,000 buyout if M’s decline their half of $8M mutual option for 2011. If Bedard declines his half of the option, he forfeits the buyout. This adds up to the $1.5M in guarantees that the M’s were reported to have agreed to last week.
Incentives:
Starts: $500,000 each for 14, 17, 20, 23, and 26 games started
Innings: $500,000 for 75 innings, $600,000 each for 100, 125, 150, 175, and 200 innings
Days: $250,000 each 65, 90, 120, and 150 days on the active roster
Okay, let’s add all this up, based on our best guess as to what Bedard may do this year. We’ll ignore April, since no one thinks he’ll be back for the first month of the season.
From May 1st to October 3rd, the last day of the regular season, there are 156 days. So, Bedard would have to be activated from the DL no later than May 6th, and spend the entire rest of the season on the active roster, to collect the 150 day bonus. That seems remarkably unlikely, so we’ll cross that one off too. The bonuses up to 120 days are at least kind of possible.
The Mariners will play 139 regular season games from May to October. If the team stayed with a strict five man rotation, and Bedard made every a start every 5th game from May 1st to the end of the season, he’d make 27 starts. Let’s go ahead and cross of that 26 start bonus as well. He’s not getting that one. The 23 start level is close enough to borderline that I’ll leave it as theoretically possible for now, though it would require a May return and no missed starts the rest of the year.
Innings wise – Even in a best case scenario where we’re giving Bedard 23 starts, he’s not going to average more than 6 IP/start coming off labrum surgery. That puts him at, best case, 138 innings. Cross off the 150/175/200 innings incentives. He’s not making those. The 125 line is probably even too questionable, but like the 23 start one, it’s borderline enough to get left in as an extreme long shot.
Where does that leave us? Well, if he returns around June 1st, averages 5 to 6 innings per start, and avoids any extended DL stints the rest of the year, that would put him in line for $1.5M for making 20 starts, $1.1M for pitching 100 innings, and $750,000 for being on the active roster for 120 days. $1.5 + $1.5 + $1.1 + $750K = $4.85 million in 2010 payouts. For ~100 innings of Erik Bedard.
Is that a massive steal? No. He’d need to be worth about +1.4 wins to justify the contract, based on the going rate of wins in the market this winter. That’s about his 2008 performance level; good, not great. His 2009 performance level was significantly better, and would represent a good value for the team, though I don’t think you can count on getting that from Bedard again, given the surgery.
So, that’s probably your best case plausible scenario – he gives the M’s three months of good pitching and earns just shy of $5 million for his efforts. In reality, there’s probably going to be a setback or two, and he’ll probably fall short of the 20 start/100 IP/120 days on active roster incentives, which would put the team on the hook for ~$3.5 million. And, of course, there’s always the worst case scenario, where he doesn’t pitch at all and the M’s give him $1.5 million and get nothing in return.
I would say, given the time table for Bedard’s return, this incentive structure is fair. If he’s healthy and pitches at 80 percent of his pre-surgery abilities, he’ll earn his paycheck. This probably won’t turn out to be a huge bargain for the M’s, as he gets rewarded pretty handsomely for taking the mound, so there’s not too many scenarios where he pitches great and the M’s only pay him a fraction of what he’s worth. Perhaps the most likely of those scenarios would be a delayed return, where he joins the team in July and then pitches well down the stretch, helping the team in August and September but not racking up enough time to trigger many of the incentives.
But, given the low guarantee and the way the payouts don’t begin to kick in until after start #14, it’s a good deal for the team. There’s very little on the line. Worst case scenario, they’re out less than $2 million. Best case scenario, they get a quality arm for a little less than the market rate, and then Bedard has opportunity to really pay off in October.
How the team is going to account for this contract in the budget is really anyone’s guess. They can’t just budget the $1.5M and then have to scramble if he pitches well and earns $5M instead, so I’d guess that they’re slotting him in for somewhere in that $4 to $5 million range. Given the rumbles about how close they were to their budget ceiling before signing Bedard, it’s tough to see them spending any more significant money.
One thing is for sure, though – this is a hell of a lot better deal for the M’s than the Ben Sheets contract was for the A’s.
Okay, I Have To Do It
I tried really hard to just let this Steve Kelley “apology to Erik Bedard” go. But, I can’t. I can’t just let this sit there. So, here we go.
Last week, a few readers — well actually a lot of readers suggested, demanded really — that certain sportswriters, namely me, owed Mariners pitcher Erik Bedard an apology.
They’re right.
Awesome. You totally do. Glad to hear that you figured that out.
After all, we (and by we, I mean I) have spent a lot of the past two years lamenting the trade that sent a large chunk of the Mariners’ future to Baltimore for a pitcher we (and, by we, I mean former general manager Bill Bavasi) expected to be the ace of the staff as the Mariners challenged for an American League West title.
Of course, that never happened.
Bedard rarely was healthy. He made only 30 starts in two seasons. He ran too many deep counts, which meant the bullpen usually had to get up by the fifth or sixth inning and he was as exciting to watch as your Uncle Bob on the putting green.
Not only that, but he might have been the most media-unfriendly Mariner since, I don’t know, Phil Bradley?
It was as if he were allergic to reporters. He answered questions in a monotone, often snickered at the questions we asked and never let us see what was behind his icy eyes.
It was that way from his first spring-training start in 2008 in Scottsdale, when he got hit hard by the San Francisco Giants and dismissed every question he was asked.
I’m sorry, didn’t you say that you owed Bedard an apology? Does “recounting everything I hate about a person” qualify as an apology to you? Why are you repeating the same tired insults you’ve been hurling at him for two years now? Wasn’t the point of this piece to admit that you were wrong, not to try to defend your wrongness?
His personality (or lack of one) should have nothing to do with the way we covered him, but human nature being what it is, Bedard created an adversarial relationship which affected the way we (I) wrote about him.
Hey, good, we’re back on track here, even though you apparently felt the need to take another swipe at the man you’re attempting to apologize to. But at least you’re admitting that you let personal bias get in the way of whatever journalistic ethics you’re attempting to hold onto. That’s a good first step. Maybe it will get better from here…
Of course, he never made it easy on himself. He asked out of his first homecoming start in Baltimore, because of an injury and he never gave the impression — on the mound, or in the clubhouse — that he had that Cliff Lee give-me-the-ball-and-I’ll-throw-200-pitches-if-that’s-what-it-takes mentality.
He wasn’t a gamer like CC Sabathia. He wasn’t an Alpha Dog like Curt Schilling. He couldn’t be counted on every fifth day from April to September. That was the impression.
And we’re right back to listing the reasons you hate the guy. This is now two attempts to apologize, both of which times you’ve followed an apologetic lead in with shots at Bedard. You suck at this whole apologizing thing.
Last season, it always seemed as if Bedard was afraid to throw hard. His fastball was topping out in the 80s. His control was off.
Erik Bedard’s average fastball in 2008: 90.9 MPH. Erik Bedard’s average fastball in 2009: 91.5 MPH, exactly the same as it was in 2007, when he dominated hitters in Baltimore. You also suck at fact checking, apparently.
There were those of us (me) who thought he was a malingerer. That he didn’t have the heart to pitch in the heat of a pennant race. That he didn’t much like the game.
I’m not sure if you realize this or not, but you’re still insinuating that there’s some truth to this stupidity by repeating it yet again.
Now we know he was hurt. He was trying to pitch with a torn labrum, which is a little like a miler trying to run with a broken ankle.
You should have led with this, and then just stopped writing.
This was, quite possibly, the worst apology in the history of the world. You, Steve Kelley, managed to take an article where the premise was that you were wrong about Erik Bedard, and turn it into a defense of your own stupidity. You now need to apologize for your apology.
Or just go away. We’d settle for that, too.
Calling For A Moratorium
Over the 15 months or so, we have certainly said our fair share of positive things about Jack Zduriencik and the job he’s done since taking over as the M’s GM. We all watched the franchise turnaround first hand, and it was amazing to see how quickly the team was able to get back on track. The turnaround was a great story.
That great story has now been written about, oh, everywhere. A google search for “Jack Zduriencik” + “turnaround” returns 2,900 hits. Name a national outlet, and they’ve done a feature on Jack Z recently. The off-season moves have people gushing. Pretty much every move the team makes is well received, both locally and nationally. The team is being held up as the poster boys of stats and scouts converging, and how well a team can be run when they listen to both sides.
I’m not here to say any of it is wrong. I am here to say that it may be time to move onto another subject of discussion, though, because I’m beginning to get the sense that it’s all getting to be a bit much for non-Mariner fans. All the stories, all the raves, all the hype… it’s starting to feed a backlash, and perhaps, setting the club up as an unnecessary litmus test for the current sabermetric beliefs.
As much as we like what the M’s have done in the last year and a half, there’s still a really good chance that this team is not going to make the playoffs. There are a lot of things that could go wrong with this team. Felix could get hurt. Lee could regress. Bradley could get injured/suspended/arrested. Wilson could pull something, and Jack Hannahan would be the team’s starting shortstop. Aardsma could forget how to throw strikes again. Kotchman could continue to not live up to his talent level. Bedard’s rehab could go badly.
Some of those things will happen. In a worst case scenario, almost all of them could happen at the same time. And if those downsides all happen to occur at the same time, this team could suck. They could win 70 games. The whole thing could fall apart.
It’s not likely, but it’s possible. Baseball’s weird. Good teams have bad years. “The best laid plans” is only a cliche because of how often well laid plans go awry.
I’d rather not have that kind of result lead to a larger, anti-stathead movement, where all the hard work done by so many to better understand the game is devalued because the 2010 Mariners were made the proxy for everything that we stand for. We think they’ve made a lot of good moves. We like this team. We think they have a chance to contend. But they might not, so in the way we talk about the franchise, let’s leave some room for the fact that the 2010 Mariners could finish in last place.
The M’s are a lot of things, but they’re not a litmus test for sabermetric theory. We’ve made the point clear that we’re extremely happy with how the team is being run, and I think the world has gotten the message. So, let’s lay off for a while, eh?
Washburn, With A Twist
As readers of the site – and listeners of Brock and Salk – well know, I’m not a huge Jarrod Washburn fan. Among people who don’t make an effort to separate pitching from defense and use metrics like ERA to judge pitchers, he’s generally overrated. His success last year in Seattle was heavily luck based (2.64 ERA is just not sustainable from a 4.50 xFIP), and it was not a big surprise to see him struggle upon being traded. In reality, he’s not that much better than the various #5 starter types already kicking around, such as Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, and Luke French.
So, when people suggest that the M’s should bring in Washburn to fill out the rotation, I’ve been generally opposed. I wanted a guy with more upside, a guy who you would actually want starting a playoff game in Yankee Stadium.
However, there’s been two slight changes to my traditional take on Washburn, as stated above. First, the team signed Bedard, who offers that upside that I’ve been wanting. And secondly, over at FanGraphs, we just rolled out splits for every player dating back to 2002, giving us lots of useful information not previously available. In the course of beta testing the splits, I decided to take a look at Washburn’s page. I knew he had different results versus lefties and righties, and I wanted to see how that looked using FanGraphs metrics like xFIP.
What I found surprised me, honestly. Here’s Washburn’s left/right splits in categories that matter since 2002:
Vs LHB: 2.22 BB/9, 7.31 K/9, 40.6% GB%, 3.93 xFIP
vs RHB: 2.77 BB/9, 4.55 K/9, 34.9% GB%, 5.15 xFIP
We knew that Washburn was more effective against left-handed hitters, but man, that difference is stunning. Nearly 3 full strikeouts per nine innings difference and a higher ground ball rate as well. His stuff works really well against same handed hitters, but he’s just trying to survive against righties. The overall package is a mediocre starting pitcher. But you know what mediocre starters with big platoon splits make? Terrific relief pitchers.
And you know what the Mariners don’t have? Anything resembling a major league left-handed reliever. The bullpen is all righties, all the time, as Wak abhors specialists who can only get a batter or two out before they need help to get out of a jam, and many LH relievers are specialists who can’t get right-handers out. Due to this philosophy, the M’s often are at a disadvantage late in games when they need to get a tough left-handed bat out.
Washburn’s repertoire would work really well out of the bullpen. He’s got good enough stuff against righties to avoid a specialist role that Wak hates, but could give the team a legitimate quality left-handed reliever to complement the Aardsma/League/Lowe/Kelley brigade of right-handers.
Now, Jarrod Washburn isn’t going to sign with anyone to be a relief pitcher, I’m sure. He’s been a starter his whole career, and I’d bet he still wants to be a starter. But with the M’s signing of Erik Bedard, who will miss at least the first 50-60 games of the season, the M’s could offer him a chance to join the team as a starter, reserving the right to move him to the bullpen if Bedard gets healthy enough to return.
In this scenario, Washburn provides potential value in two different roles. He’d begin the season as an innings-eater, allowing the team to get through the first couple of months before Bedard returns, offering that marginal upgrade over Vargas for April and May. If Bedard comes back healthy in June, and Washburn isn’t pitching like he did last year, you try to convince him to shift to the bullpen for the second half of the season, where he would give the team a quality LH reliever – something they just don’t have right now.
In that role, Washburn could actually be a pretty useful part of a potential playoff roster, if the M’s were able to win the division. Think Darren Oliver and what he’s done for the Angels in the playoffs the last few years. That multi-inning lefty who can get tough outs can be very valuable in a playoff series.
As a reliever, Washburn could really help this team in October. And, for the first few months of the season, he wouldn’t hurt to have around, holding Bedard’s spot for him and offering the team some insurance in case the rehab doesn’t go particularly well. He may be overrated by some, but the fact is, now that Bedard is in the fold, Washburn actually makes some sense for the Mariners.
He’d have to fit into the budget, and no one really knows how much the team has left to spend, but if he’s willing to take a couple million to return, I’d imagine the M’s would fit him in. And, for $2 or $3 million, as a insurance policy on Bedard’s rehab and a potential quality LH reliever in October, that’s a good investment.
Bedard Passes Physical, Deal Done
The M’s announced the Bedard deal officially today. It’s the reported one year deal, but it also has a mutual option for 2011. Now, before you get too excited, mutual options are generally not exercised. If Bedard doesn’t come back, the M’s won’t pick it up. If he comes back and pitches really well, Bedard won’t exercise it. It’s there, but it’s not overly important.
Yusmeiro Petit is the casualty of the 40-man roster, being DFA’d to make room for Bedard. If you’re wondering, they can’t put Bedard on the 60 day DL until the end of spring training, so for now, he’ll use up a 40-man roster spot. He’ll be DL’ed before the season starts, though, so if the team needs to add a non-roster player (like Josh Bard) to the team, they’ll have Bedard’s spot to do so.
The ‘09-’10 Offseason and Player Development
This offseason has seen a shift in our expectations in terms of roster composition. Back around November, we talked about the possibility of running out multiple rookies on the field, and how many would be too many for the team to remain competitive. Now those positions have been locked up to the point where the team is likely to field few rookies, if any, and not likely as starting players.
Where in left field, we thought we might see Saunders roaming, we now have the Bradley/Byrnes/Langerhans cerberus aiming to snap up most of the at-bats. At third, Tuiasosopo’s window was shut by the acquisition of all-star Chone Figgins, though I doubt many would complain over that. Carp has been rendered extraneous at first by the acquisitions of Garko and Kotchman. The Bedard re-signing will eventually push Hyphen and Snell back, and likely pushes Fister and Hill to Tacoma as a by-product of the rumored six-man bullpen. Even at catcher, as much as the org has praised Adam Moore, it seems probable that Bard might come in and take the back-up job during spring training. Prospects of all kinds, from future contributing regulars to more fringe types, have been shut out. One might get the impression that the organization is deemphasizing player development in favor of bringing in known quantities.
I’m here to tell you that this conclusion is false. The M’s are just as strong on player development as they ever have been, and I’ll tell you why. Read more
Bedard Confirms Deal
Sullivan google translates a French newspaper in which Bedard is quoted as saying:
“I’m really happy it was my first choice but to return to Seattle”, he said yesterday as he was en route to Peoria, Arizona.
The deal is, as reported, $1.5M in guaranteed money and a shipload of incentives. Kudos to Jim Street for getting it right.
While a physical for Bedard is obviously not a minor thing, the Mariners have been in charge of his rehab, so they obviously are aware of the current state of his arm, more than anyone else. I wouldn’t expect them to find a problem that nukes the deal. In what can only be considered a pretty big surprise, Bedard is a Mariner again.
My thoughts on the deal – obviously, for $1.5 million out of pocket, the risk is minimal. He could suffer a setback and never pitch again, and the M’s wouldn’t be out much of anything. Signing Bedard to this deal won’t keep them from doing anything else you might want them to do. The guaranteed money is basically irrelevant.
And, as we all have seen in spurts, when he is healthy, he’s a really good pitcher. Despite pitching through an injury, his FIP last year was basically the same as Felix’s. His curveball is a knockout weapon, and when he’s on the mound at anything near 100%, he’s one of the best left-handed pitchers in the game. The thought of what he could be is extremely enticing, I know. I realize that the natural reaction to this is to envision a front of the rotation that goes Felix-Lee-Bedard, then start jumping up and down and hugging yourself.
Not to be a downer, but we have to really temper our expectations of what he’s going to give us, though. He’s out until at least May, and he’s not known for being a quick healer. June is probably more likely. So, for the first 1/3 of the season, don’t count on seeing him on the mound. If he recovers to the point of being able to pitch in June, then he’s going to have to work his way back up, going through his own personal spring training. He’s not going to just be ready to throw 100 pitches in a big league game right off the bat. There’s going to be rust to work through.
And, honestly, there’s a question of how long he’ll last. He hasn’t pitched a game in September since 2006. He broke down at 80 innings in each of the last two years. You hope that surgery has fixed the problem, but these shoulder issues aren’t like broken legs; they don’t heal as good as new. He could easily end up taking the Mike Hampton career path, where even when he’s healthy, he’s not really healthy, and he limps along from one DL trip to the next.
Bedard has now had both labrum surgery and Tommy John surgery. His arm has been through some wars. Trying to figure out just how much is left in the tank is a guessing game. Obviously, we’d love for him to be the new Chris Carpenter, and there’s a chance for that to happen. But there’s an equal (or probably greater) chance of him being the new Mark Prior, where he just continually breaks down and never gets back to the early promise he had.
Just because of what is possible and the low cost, I think you have to like this deal. The M’s aren’t really risking anything, and there are scenarios where Bedard comes back and pitches well, giving them the best 1-2-3 in all of baseball, and a potentially dominating playoff rotation. Just because of the upside and the lack of risk, this is absolutely a deal worth making, and I’m glad to see that the M’s went for reward rather than conservative safety.
But, on the other hand, we should be realistic about what to expect. Bedard coming back in May and giving us 120+ innings of All-Star pitching is just really unlikely. We should hope for about half a season’s worth of innings, and not have too high of expectations for the level of performance he’ll offer, coming off another major arm surgery. Be hopeful, but be realistic.
Current depth chart, first week of Feb
Remember: this is not a 40 or 25-man roster. And that the M’s will sign someone immediately to mess this up.
Pitching
SP-R Felix Hernandez
SP-L Cliff Lee
SP-L Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP-R Ian Snell
SP-R Doug Fister
(SP-R Yusmeiro Petit, then there’s a grey area for a couple of the guys below)
Assuming six people make the bullpen, so you’re cutting at least one of these:
RP-R David Aardsma
RP-R Brandon League
RP-R Mark Lowe
RP-L Luke French
RP-L Jason Vargas
RP-L Garrett Olson
RP-R Shawn Kelley
(and below that: RP-R Sean White, RP-R Kanekoa Texeira)
Position players
C-R Rob Johnson
C-R Adam Moore
(C-B Josh Bard)
1B-L Casey Kotchman
1B-R Ryan Garko
2B-R Jose Lopez
SS-R Jack Wilson
3B-B Chone Figgins
LF-R Eric Byrnes
CF-R Franklin Gutierrez
RF-L Ichiro!
DH-L Ken Griffey Jr.
DH/LF-B Milton Bradley
IF-L Jack Hannahan
OF-L Ryan Langerhans
Then in Tacoma probably:
LF-L Michael Saunders
SS-R Chris Woodward
?-R Matt Tuiasosopo
And in Tacoma definitely:
1B-R Tommy Everidge
SS-R Josh Wilson
CF-L Corey Patterson
Jim Street, Erik Bedard, And Rumors
Jim Street has had an interesting week. Yesterday, he took to his mailbag to whine about the inaccuracies of bloggers and twitter, specifically using the talk about Jose Lopez being trade bait as a platform for him to virtually yell at us to get off his lawn. Perhaps he didn’t notice that 99.9% of all baseball news is now first reported on twitter, or that just a few days ago, a bunch of blogging twitterers had to correct an inaccurate report from a “mainstream” television station up in Minnesota.
And, apparently, the humor is lost on him that he’s now using his blog to report that the M’s are nearing a deal with Erik Bedard. He puts the terms at $1.5M guaranteed with “a shipload of incentives”. He’s the only one reporting this, though, and after all, it’s on a blog, so we probably shouldn’t believe it, right?
We’ll analyze it further when a more reputable reporter confirms the deal. If it doesn’t happen, well, just chalk it up as more evidence of those bloggers who don’t care about accuracy running amok.
Update: Erik Bedard tells Larry LaRue that no one has made a concrete offer. That’s a pretty far cry from there being an agreement on terms. For now, there’s no reason to believe Street’s original report has any legs.
M’s Sign Garko
Well, we finally know who was the long rumored right-handed 1B/DH type the Mariners were after – Ryan Garko, who they have now signed. He gets a 1 year, $550,000 deal, which is quite frankly a massive bargain. To get a quality platoon player in his prime for barely more than the league minimum… for comparison, he’s basically the equal of Garrett Atkins, who signed for $4.5 million earlier this winter.
So, on the cost to acquire relative to talent scale, he obviously makes a lot of sense. The question, though, is how the team will fit him onto the roster.
Garko is a lefty masher, a guy who has consistently hit LHP well but been just okay against RHP. Given the current roster, there aren’t going to be too many DH at-bats open against LHP, with Byrnes slotted in as the left fielder and Bradley shifting to DH against southpaws. So, to get Garko in the line-up vs lefties, he’ll have to play first base, which means he’ll be Kotchman’s platoon partner. That downgrades the defense quite a bit (Garko isn’t much with the glove), and it will be interesting to see how often Wak is willing to make that offense-for-defense swap, especially if Kotchman is hitting RHPs well.
The other issue, and one that we’ve discussed quite a bit lately, is how this kind of move will affect the composition of the bench. Here’s the roster, as it stands – we’ll use vs RHP as the example for now.
Starters: Johnson/Moore-Kotchman-Lopez-Wilson-Figgins-Bradley-Gutierrez-Ichiro-Griffey
Bench: Bard-Hannahan-Garko-Byrnes
This is the bench if the M’s continue to carry 12 pitchers, limiting themselves to just four reserve position players. You have a backup catcher, a backup first baseman, a reserve utility infielder, and a reserve outfielder. That should be enough, right?
Nope. Because here’s what it now looks like against LHP.
Starters: Johnson/Moore-Garko-Lopez-Wilson-Figgins-Byrnes-Gutierrez-Ichiro-Bradley
Bench: Bard-Hannahan-Kotchman-Griffey
Note the problem that will occur in any game where the team faces an LHP and one of the outfielders has to leave, whether via injury/ejection/whatever. If Gutierrez runs into a wall, you move Byrnes to center and stick Griffey in left, and that’s your outfield for the day. Assuming, of course, Griffey’s knees are up to playing the outfield that day, and that Wak is willing to sacrifice the team’s biggest strength (OF defense) and turn it into a glaring weakness. If Junior can’t play the field, or Wak doesn’t want him to, then you’re doing something like putting Garko out there and sticking Kotchman at first, which isn’t much better, honestly.
This isn’t some outlandish scenario where two guys crash into each other and have to leave the game. This will be an issue every single time the M’s face an LHP. They’ll just be playing without a fourth outfielder, which will get really old, really fast.
Given this, I think the M’s have to carry another outfielder. Bradley and Byrnes just aren’t reliable enough to count on them being able to cover all the innings in the outfield between them, especially if Byrnes is also the only backup to Gutierrez and Ichiro. And if you’re going to carry another outfielder, that means a five man bench, which means an 11 man pitching staff.
That they signed Garko, and they know all of the stuff I just wrote above, I have to believe that is a real consideration. Jack even mentioned that an 11 man staff would be “ideal” at our USSM gathering in January, but also mentioned that a decision like that would have to be made during spring training, after they look at how the pitching staff shakes out.
Perhaps I’m reading too much into this signing, but I’d bet that Garko’s addition makes it far more likely that the team breaks camp with only six relievers.
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