Update | 11:28 p.m. On the final day of the regular season, seven A.F.C. teams were alive for the two wild-card spots. In the N.F.C. most of the seeds were up for grabs. At the end of the day, the Vikings had a bye, the Cowboys were N.F.C. East champions, and the Ravens and the Jets had the A.F.C. wild cards. The Fifth Down tracked the results and the changing playoff scenarios as the day went on.

Texans 34, Patriots 27

Update | 4:01 p.m. Bill Belichick decided not to rest his offensive stars, Tom Brady, Wes Welker and Randy Moss, and it has already cost him. Welker sustained what appears to be a severe knee injury in the first quarter. Welker leads the league in receptions with 122. Brady came out of the game late in the fourth quarter with the game tied, 27-27. The Texans scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to claim the first winning season in franchise history. Now they wait.

Update | 11:28 p.m. More than seven hours later, with the Jets’ 37-0 victory over the Bengals, Houston’s chances at its first playoff berth were thwarted.

The Texans get a wild-card berth with:
1. A win + Jets loss or tie + Baltimore loss or tie
2. A win + Jets loss or tie + Denver loss or tie
3. A win + Baltimore loss or tie + Denver loss or tie

Steelers 30, Dolphins 24

Update | 3:57 p.m. Pittsburgh held onto a fourth-quarter lead for the victory, but still needed some help to get into the postseason. Miami was eliminated from playoff contention and also saw two of its quarterbacks get hurt. Chad Henne sustained an eye injury early in the second half and was replaced by Pat White, who was knocked out of the game by a helmet-to-helmet hit in the third quarter. Tyler Thigpen took over, making is first appearance with the Dolphins.

Update | 7:19 p.m. The help didn’t arrive. The Steelers were eliminated from contention when their division rivals, the Ravens, won in Oakland later Sunday.

The Steelers get a wild-card berth with:
1. A win + Houston loss or tie + Jets loss or tie
2. A win + Houston loss or tie + Baltimore loss or tie
3. A win + Jets loss or tie + Baltimore loss or tie + Denver loss or tie

Browns 23, Jaguars 17

Update | 3:38 p.m. The loss eliminated the Jaguars from playoff contention.

Vikings 44, Giants 7

Update | 7:30 p.m. If you have a 40-year-old quarterback, wouldn’t you like a bye week? The Vikings did their part, demolishing the spiritless Giants. Then Dallas destroyed Philadelphia in a late afternoon game to give the Vikings the No. 2 seed. Read more…

As the Colts (14-0) kept alive their perfect season last night, the pack of 7-6 teams tied for the A.F.C.’s final wild-card position shed a member — Jacksonville (7-7) — and is down to three (Baltimore, Miami and the Jets).

Here is how last night’s game affected the A.F.C. playoff chase:

Indianapolis (14-0) CLINCHED HOME FIELD THROUGHOUT PLAYOFFS
vs. Jets, at Buffalo

The Colts are two wins from being the second N.F.L. team to complete a 16-game regular season with a perfect record (New England, 2007). Of course, they could also be joined by the Saints at 16-0. The Colts are also in pursuit of extending their record 23-game regular-season winning streak.

Baltimore (7-6)
vs. Chicago, at Pittsburgh, at Oakland

The Ravens (6-4 A.F.C.) have a superior conference record and thus a tenuous hold on the final wild-card berth over Miami (5-4 A.F.C.) and the Jets (5-5 A.F.C.). If the Ravens win their last three games, they will beat out the Dolphins, either with a better conference record or with a better record among common opponents (2-2 vs. 1-3). A possible wrench in their plans? They would lose a tie breaker to New England (8-5) if Miami beat out the Patriots for the East title.

Miami (7-6)
at Tennessee, vs. Houston, vs. Pittsburgh

The Dolphins could win out and miss the playoffs (if they finish tied with the Ravens) or they could win the division if they finish tied with the Patriots. It is possible for the Dolphins to win the division over the Patriots even if they finished with the same division record and the same record vs. common opponents because the Dolphins would have a better conference record.

Jets (7-6)
vs. Atlanta, at Indianapolis, vs. Cincinnati

The Jets were helped by Jacksonville’s loss, but that means they will have to face an undefeated Colts team on Dec. 27, and that game will probably mean something only if the Jets beat Atlanta on Sunday. The Jets need Tennessee to take a bite out of the Dolphins on Sunday. Could that happen? Sure. But the game that could really change the Jets’ fortunes would be if Buffalo were to upset New England in Buffalo. If that happened, it would open another potential avenue to the playoffs through the division for the Jets. The Patriots finish the season with games against Jacksonville (7-7) and at Houston (6-7).

Chase Stuart, a lawyer, Jets fan and statistical analyst, writes for the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog.

Miami started the season 0-3, with losses in Atlanta and San Diego sandwiched around a heartbreaking Monday Night defeat against the Colts. Since then, the Dolphins have won 7 of their last 10 games and are in position to make the playoffs as either a wild card or as the A.F.C. East winner.

If the Dolphins end up in the postseason, they will become just the 20th team in N.F.L. history to make the playoffs after falling three games below .500 during the season. Only one of those teams, the 1963 Bills, had such a turnaround in the pre-merger era. This isn’t surprising: as more teams make the playoffs and the season becomes longer, this sort of feat becomes easier. Additionally, realignment in 2002 created four-team divisions in each conference, allowing teams the chance to come from way back to win small divisions without dominant teams. In the 32 seasons from 1970 to 2001, when larger divisions and fewer playoff teams were the general rule, only 14 teams came from three games under .500 to make the playoffs; if Miami does so, it will be the fifth team in the eight seasons since realignment to do so.

Here’s a look at the five most unlikely playoff teams based on their struggles out of the gate:

5) 2002 Jets. Nine teams in league history have started 1-4 and made the playoffs, but none looked as hopeless as the 2002 Jets.

After winning in overtime in the opener thanks to two Chad Morton kickoff return touchdowns, the Jets lost the next three games by the combined score of 102-13. After starting 1-4 and then 2-5, Herm Edwards gave a now classic soundbite before the Jets traveled to San Diego to face the 6-1 Chargers. After that reminder of why we play, the Jets finished the season 7-2, including a key win in Foxboro to knock the defending champs out of the playoffs. The Jets would need help on the last Sunday to gain entry; only with a Jets win and a Dolphins loss could New York win the A.F.C. East. In the early game, the Patriots defeated Miami in overtime, with the winning kick coming more than halfway through the first quarter of the Jets’ late afternoon game. When news broke in the Meadowlands, the crowd erupted, the Jets blew out the Packers, and one of the most unlikely playoff berths in league history was earned.
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(Recommended: A funny story from Bill Bates at the end of this video clip)

Where were you when you watched this game? The NFL Network will rebroadcast the classic 1993 Thanksgiving game between the Dolphins and the Cowboys at 9 a.m. Eastern this morning.

If 1993 doesn’t ring a bell, think Leon Lett. And snow.

Here’s part of the news release sent by the N.F.L.:

The Thanksgiving defeat was the Cowboys’ final loss of the season as they won their next eight games including Super Bowl XXVIII.

This NFL Classic Games telecast features the complete NBC broadcast with announcers Dick Enberg and Bob Trumpy calling the action along with all of the network’s original graphics. The game was watched by 38.4 million viewers on NBC and is the most watched NFL regular season game in the last 19 years (since 49ers-Giants on ABC Monday Night Football drew 41.5 million on December 3, 1990).

Happy Thanksgiving to all Fifth Down readers and their families.

If the Jets (4-4) want to get into playoff contention, they can’t worry about scoreboard watching.

But that doesn’t mean Jets fans can’t worry about other results. It’s not too early to look at possible tie breakers: The Jets’ 1-3 record in the division is a trouble spot, but their 4-3 mark in the conference is competitive.

Here is this week’s rooting interest lineup, in order of importance:

STEELERS (6-2) over Bengals (6-2) in Pittsburgh. The Jets have to hope the Steelers pull away in the A.F.C. North at the expense of the Bengals. Why? Because the Jets will finish the season with a game against Cincinnati. If that game has playoff implications for the Jets, at least they will be able to take matters into their own hands. The Jets do not play the Steelers this season.

COLTS (8-0) over Patriots (6-2) in Indianapolis. It is a given that Jets fans will root against the Patriots every week. Here, there’s a little extra incentive: A New England loss coupled with a Jets victory over Jacksonville would set up a first-place showdown between the Jets and Patriots next weekend in Foxborough.

EAGLES (5-3) over Chargers (5-3) in San Diego. No need to worry about the N.F.C.’s Eagles, and if a Philadelphia win hurts the Giants, too bad. The Giants had their chance to help themselves and the Jets last week against the Chargers but lost in the final minute. The Jets do not play San Diego this season.

BUCCANEERS (1-7) over Dolphins (3-5) in Miami. The Dolphins are the one team that can play the role of Jason from “Friday the 13th” because they have two wins over the Jets. The sooner the Jets can put Miami in their rear view mirror the better. Time to unveil that brand new Josh Freeman jersey.

TITANS (2-6) over Bills (3-5) in Nashville. Are the Bills a threat? Probably not. But they definitely won’t be if the Titans beat them on Sunday.

BROWNS (1-7) over Ravens (4-4) in Cleveland. It is O.K. to root for this Brady, as in Brady Quinn, who will be making his first start since Week 3 with the hope of jump-starting the Browns’ woeful offense. And it’s O.K. to root for the former Jets coach Eric Mangini, who needs all the support he can get these days.

Extra Point: If the Jets-Patriots game in New England next week is for first place, does anyone want to guess what the line will be? The Jets will have the chance to win the season series over New England for the first time since 2000.

When Dolphins Coach Tony Sparano decided to go for a 2-point conversion after Miami took a 30-19 lead against the Jets on Sunday, it didn’t seem to make sense. With 8:48 left, an extra point would have forced the Jets to score two touchdowns to take the lead. When Miami failed to convert, the Jets had the chance to tie the score with one touchdown (with a 2-point conversion) and a field goal.

On Monday, Sparano offered this explanation: “I just didn’t know how many more at-bats that team was going to get, O.K.? The way the game was going, and with where we were offensively in this football game, I had no idea how many more at-bats that team was going to get.”

The Jets’ domination on both sides of the ball probably factored into Sparano’s thinking. The Jets had four scoring drives in the second half — three of them for touchdowns — while Miami generated only 10 first downs and 104 total yards in the game.

The Dolphins’ 2-point attempt came after their only offensive touchdown, and Sparano said he wanted to stay aggressive. “In my mind, we were down there, we just finished a good drive, we had some momentum, and we had a good play,” he said.

The Jets had a chance to capitalize on Sparano’s move when Braylon Edwards scored on a 17-yard touchdown pass with 5:52 remaining. The Jets appeared to convert their own 2-point attempt when Sanchez completed a pass to Wallace Wright — the score would have been 30-27 — but the Jets were penalized for an illegal shift.

Had the Jets made it a 3-point game, who knows? The Jets drove to the Miami 8 in the closing moments, and a short field goal could have tied the score at 30-30. Instead, the Jets went for it on fourth down at the Miami 15 with 1:16 remaining, and an incomplete pass by Sanchez gave the ball back to the Dolphins and secured Miami’s 30-25 victory.

Extra point: Are you satisfied with Sparano’s thinking in going for 2?

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. – The Jets’ special-teams coordinator, Mike Westhoff, made a rare Monday media appearance, in order to explain how his unit yielded a pair of return touchdowns to Ted Ginn Jr. in a loss Sunday to Miami.

Westhoff said those returns made the difference in the outcome.

“The worst,” he called the performance. “Worst ever for me. I was happy with some things. I’m never happy with much of anything if we don’t win the game, or make plays that dramatically win it. But this, absolute worst.”
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Update | 4:09 p.m. EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — The Jets lost in unusual fashion Sunday. Their quarterback, Mark Sanchez, accounted for three touchdowns. Their defense recorded six sacks and tamed the Wildcat. Their kicker, Jay Feely, matched his career long with a 55-yard field goal.

And they still lost, 30-25, to the Miami Dolphins, a rival they described all week as hated, a division foe who beat them in wild, weird fashion for the second time in 20 days.

The Jets now head into their bye week with little idea of exactly what kind of team they are. In the first half of the first season under Coach Rex Ryan, the Jets won four games and lost four games, proving consistent only in their inconsistency.

On Sunday, their defense played well, for the most part, as did Sanchez. But the Dolphins received 21 points from two kickoffs returned for touchdowns by Ted Ginn Jr. and a fumble returned for a touchdown by defensive end Jason Taylor.

The Jets drove as far as the Dolphins’ 12-yard line, late in the fourth quarter, after Sanchez completed a 16-yard pass to Dustin Keller on fourth down. But the Jets did not move the ball on the ensuing four downs. And so it ended.

Update | 3:52 p.m. That’s six sacks now for the Jets defense, spread among six different players. This was a team that had been lamenting its inability to get to the passer, but throughout this game they have.

Update | 3:45 p.m. Tight end Dustin Keller did have one bad drop today, but it appears his chemistry with quarterback Mark Sanchez is much improved. Midway through the fourth quarter, Keller has seven receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown came on a 16-yard pass, where Keller had to stretch for the ball to haul it in near the goal line. Both Sanchez and Keller said in recent weeks that they had spent extra time after practice working on their timing, watching film, etc. Looks like it’s helping, at least this Sunday.

Update | 3:32 p.m. To recap that wild third quarter, all of the following happened in 15 football minutes:
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Matchup to Watch: Jets’ Run vs. Miami’s Front Seven
The Jets have run the ball at a blistering pace. They amassed more than 300 yards rushing in each of their last two games — the second time in N.F.L. history a team has done that in consecutive weeks; the first was in 1975.

The Dolphins rank fourth in the league in run defense (86.3), and the Jets will be without Leon Washington, who is out for the season. The Jets will be counting on the rookie Shonn Greene, above (144 yards rushing against the Raiders), Thomas Jones (602 yards, fourth in the N.F.L.) and an offensive line that has started 23 straight games together, the most in the league.

Number to Watch

20

Days separating games between the Dolphins and the Jets, a rarity, even for division rivals. Both teams will use essentially the same game plans and mostly the same players. And the Dolphins hope the result is the same.

If Sunday’s Jets-Dolphins game is the last one between the teams at Giants Stadium — and it will be barring a playoff matchup, with the new stadium set to open next year — then this series has been an amazing ride.

The Jets have dominated, winning 17 of 25 games. But both teams have had their share of memorable results.

The first game, in 1984, set the tone. The Dolphins were 9-0, and Dan Marino was on his way to setting the N.F.L. record for passing yards in a season (5,084). The Jets (6-3) held him in check for most of the game and had a 17-14 lead early in the fourth quarter. But the Dolphins scored the final 17 points in a 31-17 victory.

Here are my choices for the five most memorable:

1) THE MONDAY NIGHT MIRACLE Jets 40, Miami 37, Overtime (Oct. 23, 2000)

Be honest. Who stayed to the end of this one?

This battle for first place turned into a Dolphins rout in a hurry. After one quarter, Miami led, 17-0. When Lamar Smith scored on a 3-yard run with 12 seconds left in the third quarter, the Dolphins led, 30-7, and the game was as good as over. Miami had one of the best defenses in the N.F.L., having allowed 51 points in its first 6 games. The Jets had been having trouble just moving the ball; they didn’t get their first first down against the Dolphins until there were 6 minutes 33 seconds left in the first half.

Al Michaels was broadcasting the game — Do you believe in miracles? In the fourth quarter, the Jets scored 30 points and amassed 20 first downs. After tying the score at 30-30 with 3:55 remaining, the Jets allowed a Miami touchdown 22 seconds later. But Jumbo Elliott’s touchdown reception on a tackle eligible play with 42 seconds left sent the game into overtime.

John Hall’s 40-yarder at 1:22 a.m. put the finishing touches on the comeback, which stands as the greatest in Jets history.

2) KEN O’BRIEN OUTDUELS DAN MARINO Jets 51, Miami 45, Overtime (Sept. 21, 1986)

The teams combined for 884 yards passing — which remains the N.F.L. record — but that barely tells the story.
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(Editor’s note: This post ran on Friday, but we’re bumping it up to today for readers who might have missed it and who may be interested in the nuts and bolts of the Wildcat. Rex Ryan and the Jets may want to study up, too. They couldn’t stop it last night.)

Chris Brown, a coaching consultant and attorney, writes about football strategy, theory and philosophy at SmartFootball.com.

Although labeled a “fad,” a “gimmick” and even “disrespectful,” the Wildcat offense lives. In fact, when the Jets take on a Miami team whose quarterback, Chad Henne, will be making only his second career start, the Wildcat may be their primary concern.
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Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press Miami’s Ronnie Brown looking to throw during a Wildcat play against the Jets as Calvin Pace (97) closes in. Brown scored the winning touchdown on a 2-yard run with six seconds left.

The Fifth Down will be providing gametracking and live commentary from tonight’s Jets-Dolphins game on “Monday Night Football.” Greg Bishop will provide the smart analysis from Miami; I will provide some smart-aleck commentary from Fifth Down headquarters in Manhattan.

Update | 12:34 a.m. Last update, but Greg just called in some choice quotes:

Coach Rex Ryan: “It was a complete embarrassment by our defense and by me. I’ll take full responsibility for that. I’ve never been in a game like that in my life.”

Ryan on the loss: “We’re still in first place, but it doesn’t feel like it right now.”

Ryan on Henne: “We made that quarterback look like Dan Marino.”

Calvin Pace on Henne: “Against a second-year clown quarterback, we didn’t affect him enough. I guess you have to give him credit. The defense lost the game today.”

Calvin Pace on the Wildcat: “I can’t respect that stuff, all that Wildcat. We’re in the N.F.L. Don’t come here with that nonsense.”

Update | 12:11 a.m. Ryan in the postgame: “We’ve got to play a hell of a lot better on defense than we did.”

Update | 11:47 p.m. The Jets fall to 3-2 after a 3-0 start. The Dolphins improve to 2-3 after an 0-3 start.

The rematch looks like it will be fun. Thanks for reading.

Update | 11:46 p.m. It falls incomplete well short of the end zone. No one even made a play for it.

Wow. Great game, great finish, but a second straight loss for the Jets.

Update | 11:46 p.m. Three seconds left after the kickoff. One heave left for the Jets.

Update | 11:43 p.m. Ronnie Brown up the gut — TOUCHDOWN!! The Dolphins take a 31-27 lead with six seconds left.

Update | 11:42 p.m. Incomplete pass on second down — Henne rolled right then tried to throw back across, but Fasano couldn’t free himself to get out there. Third down.

Dagger for the Jets, who just couldn’t stop them on the final drive.

The Dolphins’ line just shoved them into the end zone to clear a path for Brown.

Update | 11:41 p.m. Brown runs left on first down, but Rhodes drags him down at the 2! Huge play to save a touchdown. Dolphins call time with 17 seconds left.

Biggest test yet for the Jets’ defense.

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Matchup spotlight:

Jets’ run defense vs. Miami rushing attack
Linebacker Calvin Pace returns against the Dolphins on Monday night, just in time to face the top-ranked running game in the N.F.L. As dominating as the Jets’ defense has been this season, it has struggled somewhat against the run.

The Jets are allowing an average of 100.3 yards on the ground, good for 13th in the N.F.L., or nine spots below where they rank in total defense. Against Miami, the Jets face Ronnie Brown (369 yards, 4 touchdowns), Ricky Williams (248 yards, 2 touchdowns) and a ground game that averages 183.5 yards. Can the Jets slow the Dolphins enough to force the young quarterback Chad Henne to beat them?

Number to watch: 4

As in fourth down. Neither team has failed to convert a fourth-down attempt this season, and both rank among the best at stopping fourth-down conversions.

Words of wisdom and disgust after Week 3.

“We were beat by a grown-man team, a team we want to be like one day.” — Buccaneers Coach Raheem Morris, after a loss to the Giants.

“I’d like to say that this is exactly what I predicted, but we played three outstanding football teams. We’re 3-0 right here. Maybe that says something about us.” — Jets Coach Rex Ryan.

“I think that guy should be embarrassed. Maybe Sanchez’s post-rookie player card should have that runover on the end of it. He should be embarrassed. They should make it a Fathead.” — Jets linebacker Bart Scott, after quarterback Mark Sanchez bulled past the Titans’ Michael Griffin for the final yard on a 14-yard touchdown run.

“We not only got the monkey off our back, we got King Kong off our back.” –the Lions’ owner, William Clay Ford, after Detroit posted its first win since the 2007 season.

“You either want it or you don’t. A lot of these guys don’t want it.” — Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall, after Washington fell to 1-2 with a loss to Detroit.
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