Pro Football



Posts published by Brian Burke

February 8, 2010, 1:23 am

Analyzing Sean Payton’s Gutsy Calls

Coach Sean Payton made courageous decisions on the way to New Orleans’s first Super Bowl title.


January 28, 2010, 10:00 am

Be Skeptical of My Super Bowl Prediction: Colts in a Close One

The final game probability of the season from Advanced NFL Stats: Colts 52 percent, Saints 48 percent.


January 25, 2010, 1:09 am

Exciting Game, Unsatisfying Ending: New Formula for Overtime Needed

After watching the overtime in the Saints-Vikings game, do you think the system needs fixing? If so, what would you suggest?


January 21, 2010, 9:25 am

Jets’ Win Probability vs. Colts: 28 Percent

The numbers don’t give the Jets much of a chance, but if Mark Sanchez avoids turnovers and the Jets get a couple of breaks, we should be in for quite a show in Indianapolis.


January 14, 2010, 6:00 am

Win Probabilities, and the Importance of Playoff Run Defense

Once playoff time rolls around, having the better run defense appears to be the best predictor of success.


January 13, 2010, 10:00 am

Fourth-Down Attempts Are Up. Is There a Belichick Factor?

Are N.F.L. coaches catching on to the latest research that says kicking on fourth down isn’t always the smart call? Fourth-down conversion attempts were more common in 2009 than in any other year of the decade.


January 7, 2010, 6:00 am

Wild-Card Round Probabilities: Odds Are Against Best Team

There is the best team. And then there is the champion. And only sometimes are they the same.


December 31, 2009, 6:00 am

Week 17 N.F.L. Game Probabilities

By Week 17, we’re lucky if we have a few games that matter. Fortunately this year, we have that and more.


December 24, 2009, 6:00 am

Week 16 N.F.L. Game Probabilities, and the Blowout of the Decade

According to one metric, the Giants-Redskins game on Monday night was the most lopsided game of the decade.


December 17, 2009, 6:30 am

Week 15 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: What Is the Effect of Resting Starters?

It’s that time of season when teams that have clinched their playoff seeds are resting their players, and this makes game predictions especially difficult.


December 10, 2009, 6:00 am

Week 14 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: The Unluckiest Teams

The Giants and the Jets have been among the unlucky teams in 2009, along with the Redskins, the Steelers, the Buccaneers and the Rams, according to Advanced NFL Stats.


December 3, 2009, 6:00 am

Week 13 N.F.L. Game Probabilities, and Playoff Projections

It’s Week 13 and the playoff picture is coming into focus. One of the interesting applications for a game probability model is to estimate the likelihood that teams will make the playoffs.


November 25, 2009, 11:00 am

Week 12 N.F.L. Game Probabilities

With the Broncos’ performance in significant decline and their quarterback situation unsettled, Denver is not the same team that surprised us earlier in the year.


November 19, 2009, 7:00 am

N.F.L. Week 11 Probabilities, and a Forecast for Jets-Patriots

The Jets’ real problem this season is interceptions. Their rate has climbed from a better-than-average 2.4% to a near-league-worst 5.3%. Only the Browns have had a higher percentage of passes intercepted this season.


November 16, 2009, 12:51 am

Defending Belichick’s Fourth-Down Decision

New England Coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th-down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Was the decision a good one?


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The New York Times will report on the Giants and Jets throughout the season. You can also find links to coverage from around the league, tips for your fantasy football team and discussion with other football fans.

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Recent Posts

February 08

Analyzing Sean Payton’s Gutsy Calls

Coach Sean Payton made courageous decisions on the way to New Orleans's first Super Bowl title.

January 28

Be Skeptical of My Super Bowl Prediction: Colts in a Close One

The final game probability of the season from Advanced NFL Stats: Colts 52 percent, Saints 48 percent.

January 25

Exciting Game, Unsatisfying Ending: New Formula for Overtime Needed

After watching the overtime in the Saints-Vikings game, do you think the system needs fixing? If so, what would you suggest?

January 21

Jets’ Win Probability vs. Colts: 28 Percent

The numbers don't give the Jets much of a chance, but if Mark Sanchez avoids turnovers and the Jets get a couple of breaks, we should be in for quite a show in Indianapolis.

January 14

Win Probabilities, and the Importance of Playoff Run Defense

Once playoff time rolls around, having the better run defense appears to be the best predictor of success.

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