SportsDystopia

This has been, to put it mildly, a very strange season at the plate for Ryan Howard.  With just 8 games to play in the season, Howard’s numbers currently stand at .248, 46 HR, 141 RBI.  That isn’t just an odd line considering his batting average, historically speaking, it’s unprecedented.

Howard’s 141 RBI’s are already enough to put him at #96 on the list of all-time single season RBI leaders, and it’s likely he’ll climb a few spots on the ladder before all is said and done (He has 27 RBIs in his last 17 games, so 150 is well within reach).  I had originally set out to see who else was in the top #100 that had hit below .250 for a season.  It turned out, there wasn’t anybody.  Okay, I figured.  Howard’s been hot all month (hitting .371 for September), he’ll probably crack .250 for the year, was there anybody else under .260?  Nope.

Now I was really intrigued, so I gave the entire top 500 all-time seasons (119 RBIs and over to get into that club) a good going over.  Out of that 500, there were exactly four- that’s right, only FOUR seasons where someone had batted under .260, and I had to go pretty far down the list to find them.  The highest was Twins great Harmon Killebrew in 1962 , tied for #267 on the list with a line of .243, 48 HR, and 126 RBI.  The others, if you’re curious, were #325 Cecil Fielder in 1992 (.244, 35 HR, 124 RBI), #349 Gorman Thomas in 1979 (.244, 45 HR, 123 RBI) and #413 Jeff Kent in 1997 (.250, 29 HR, 121 RBI). 

What about the guys still in front of Howard?  Well, the lowest batting average for anybody ahead of him on the list was Roger Maris’ immortal 1961 season, which he finished at .269, 142 RBI, and of course, his 61 home runs, which are likely still the most non-chemistry influenced homers ever hit in a year.  Maris is the only other one below .275, and the entire list contains just 10 guys who hit below .300!

And if Howard can manage just 6 more RBI, he’ll crack the top 50, where there’s only one other sub .300 season, Vern Stephens in 1949, at .290 and 159 RBI.  There is an awfully big difference between .290 and .250, of course.

So, what gives?  The answer lies in the other thing he’s historically proficient at, striking out.  Howard’s on pace to break his own record for whiffs, which he set last year at 199- he has 192 entering saturday.  There is a HUGE difference in his batting average with runners on base .318, and his average with the bags empty, .190.  Howard is obviously not a terribly selective hitter, so when the sacks are empty, opposing pitchers are free to pitch outside the zone, and count on him to chase breaking balls in the dirt or high heat.

His power currently stands alone in baseball, and even after only 3 and a half seasons in the bigs, he has to be considered for anybody’s short list for most raw power at the plate ever.  If he can develop a more discerning eye for pitches in the next couple years, he could turn into the most unstoppable offensive machine the game has ever seen.

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