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Who will wear Cinderella's shoes?

By Digger Phelps
ESPN.com
Archive

Sears Blue Hoops Crew breaking down the tourney.

March Madness is upon us and with it comes one of the most exciting times of the sports year. Which team(s) will be wearing Cinderella's shoes? Which heavyweights will flex their muscle? Nobody knows for sure, but here are my thoughts on the upcoming tournament.

Top-ranked Kansas certainly has no easy task getting to Indianapolis. With Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland and Michigan State filling out the top five seeds, Kansas will likely be tested in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. Three of those five have won national titles since 1999, and there are numerous Sweet 16 and Final Four appearances. If you like heavyweights, the Midwest is your regional!

If you are looking for a sleeper here, be aware of Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are athletic and can beat anyone in the country on a given day. Double-digit-seeded ACC teams have had a good track record lately, so don't be shocked if Tech makes a run. And if Oklahoma State knocks off Georgia Tech in Round 1, don't be surprised to see the Cowboys give Ohio State all it can handle. Only 13 of 20 No. 2 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 over the past five years, so the stats back it up

In the West, Syracuse is built for tournament success. They aren't a deep team, and with Arinze Onuaku's injury sidelining him early on, fatigue may be a factor. But the Orange's defense will give most teams fits, and not many will have an answer for the athletic Wesley Johnson. The fact the Orange lost their first Big East tournament game is a bad historical omen, but that shouldn't stop Jim Boeheim's team from getting to the Elite Eight -- or further. Kansas State has made a living this season getting to the free throw line. Will the Wildcats have to adjust to how an NCAA tournament game is officiated? Will they see the same number of free throw attempts? Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente are a great duo, and the Wildcats will go as far as the tandem can take them. Two of the lowest seeded at-large teams are in this regional -- Minnesota and Florida. Last season, the six lowest-seeded at-large teams went 5-1 in the first round. So whether or not you feel the Gophers and Gators belong in the tournament, don't sell their chances short.

It will be interesting to see how the Kentucky freshmen handle the tournament stage. John Calipari had his share of great freshmen at Memphis -- and they were terrific in the tournament. I'd be shocked if Kentucky fell short of Indianapolis. West Virginia is likely the Wildcats' toughest competition, as the Mountaineers made a great case for a No. 1 seed by winning the Big East tournament. Da'Sean Butler could carry WVU a long way. Last season Cleveland State pulled a 13-over-4 upset versus Wake Forest. Could Wofford give Wisconsin a game this season? The Terriers are used to low-scoring, grind-it-out types of games, so the Badgers' style shouldn't surprise Wofford. Will 3-seed New Mexico make the Mountain West proud? It's the highest seed ever for a Mountain West team, but the conference's 8-22 tournament record doesn't suggest the Lobos will make a deep run

Many thought Duke would be battling West Virginia to be the fourth No. 1 seed, but on Selection Sunday, the Blue Devils wound up the No. 3 overall seed and appear to be in a regional that sets them up well for a run at their first Final Four since 2004. The No. 2 seed in the regional is Villanova, which has lost five of its past seven games. No. 3 seed Baylor hasn't won a tournament game since 1950. No. 4 seed Purdue has scored 42 and 44 points in two games against tournament teams since losing the heart and soul of the team, Robbie Hummel. No. 5 seed Texas A&M; has never won more than two games in a single tournament. Notre Dame went from the bad side of the bubble to a 6-seed in two weeks! The Blue Devils haven't beaten a team seeded higher than fifth since 2001. And they may not have to beat one this season to reach Indianapolis. If you're looking for a couple of deep sleepers to make a run, Cal could surprise a lot of people. The Bears played the early part of the year without Theo Robertson, and with Pac-10 Player of the Year Jerome Randle, they are capable of pulling off a win or two in the tournament. And remember what I said earlier about those last teams in? Same goes here for Utah State. A lot of people didn't think the Aggies belonged in the field. Could this be the 12-5 upset and Sweet 16 run, just like Arizona pulled off last season?

In the end, Kansas possesses all the attributes of a national champion: senior leaders, depth, great point guard play, a big man and a tournament-tested coach. Look for the Jayhawks to be the last team standing and the fourth straight No. 1 seed to win the title.

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