Kyrgyzstan Unrest Poses Dilemma for US Military

(April 8) -- After a day of deadly street clashes in the capital of Bishkek, the political opposition claims to have seized power in the mountainous Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan. But the country's stability -- and the future of the U.S. military presence there -- is now in question.

Protesters stormed government buildings in Bishkek on Wednesday after riot police opened fire on demonstrators who had gathered in the capital to rally against government corruption and economic mismanagement. Dozens were reported killed, and Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev fled the capital after the failed crackdown. An acting government has now emerged, headed by former Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva. On her Twitter feed, Otunbayeva declared last night that "power is in the hands of people's government."

Stakes are high for the U.S. Kyrgyzstan is home to the Manas Transit Center, a key way station for troops deploying to Afghanistan and an important supply hub for military operations in Central Asia. The United States has kept troops at Manas since late 2001, when officials negotiated basing and overflight rights to support the military campaign against al-Qaida.

With President Barack Obama's decision to deploy an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan, Manas is more important than ever. In 2008, Air Force aerial refueling tankers based out of Manas flew 3,294 refueling missions over Afghanistan, and more than 170,000 coalition personnel passed through the base on their way to or from Afghanistan. As additional troops arrive, many of them will pass through Kyrgyzstan.

Manas is just a short drive outside the capital, and it is unclear what, if any, impact the unrest has had on military operations there. In a press conference today, Otunbayeva said that "nothing will be changed" in Kyrgyzstan's base agreement, according to Agence France-Presse.

In response to a query, Air Force Maj. Rickardo Bodden, chief spokesman for the 376th Air Expeditionary Wing at Manas, said, "The Transit Center at Manas has taken appropriate measures to continue to support operations in Afghanistan. Due to operational security reasons, we will not discuss specific details about protection of our personnel and assets."

Kyrgyzstan, a landlocked country of around 5.4 million, may be a key transit point for U.S. military operations in Afghanistan, but the presence of U.S. troops there has been a major irritant to Russia, which sees the former Soviet republic as part of its legitimate sphere of interests. Last year, Kyrgyzstan's parliament voted to close the U.S. base after Russia offered $2 billion in aid and credit to the impoverished country.

After months of behind-the-scenes maneuvering, U.S. officials struck a deal with the Kyrgyz government to keep the base, after agreeing to a substantial rent hike. The United States reportedly promised to pay $60 million a year to use the base, a major increase over the $17.4 million previously paid in annual rent. In a nod to local sensitivities, the base was redesignated a "transit center."

Losing Manas would have been a major setback for U.S. operations. In 2005, Air Force Col. Randy Kee, then the commander of the 376th Air Expeditionary Wing, said the Kyrgyz base had become the "primary logistics hub" for Operation Enduring Freedom. That same year, neighboring Uzbekistan cut off U.S. access to Karshi Khanabad (also known as "K2"), a former Soviet airbase that had been an important staging area for operations in Afghanistan, and many of K2's operations shifted to Manas.

Since then, Kyrgyzstan's importance to the U.S. effort in Afghanistan has only grown. Among the chief reasons: As rising violence in Pakistan threatens U.S. and coalition supply lines, the U.S. is keener than ever to ensure that northern supply routes to Afghanistan remain open. Underscoring Kyrgyzstan's strategic role, Gen. David Petraeus, the head of U.S. Central Command, paid a visit last month to the country.

Continued unrest in Kyrgyzstan could pose a serious problem for U.S. military planners. After Wednesday's events, Bakiyev fled the capital. His whereabouts are not confirmed, although news reports say he flew to southern Kyrgyzstan, where he maintains a regional power base.

Bakiyev came to power in the so-called Tulip Revolution of 2005, a wave of popular revolts that unseated the government of President Askar Akayev. Kevin Jones, a research scholar at the Center for International Security Studies at Maryland and an expert on Kyrgyzstan, said Bakiyev may be looking to stage a comeback. "The protests in 2005 started in [the southern city of] Jalalabad, and his family and political supporters were a key reason for the initial success and longevity of those protests," Jones said.

He said it was possible that Bakiyev could mount some type of counterprotests in Jalalabad, but added, "I would be surprised if he would be able to hold the long-term support of Osh, the second largest city in the country."

Reached by telephone, Muzaffar Saipov, a resident of Osh, said the situation in the southern city "was stable." He said the regional governor had been removed from office, and an interim governor, Kuzbat Tezykbayev, had been named in his place. "In Osh, the situation is normal, pretty stable. People are out and about, going about their normal business," he said. "But people are anxious."

In a curious twist, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Wednesday that Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Kadyrbek Sarbayev and Maxim Bakiyev, the son of the president, were on their way to Washington when the violence broke out.

"We have postponed those consultations for obvious reasons, but I expect that while the foreign minister is here, we'll have some meetings with him here in Washington," Crowley said.

Given the still fluid situation in Kyrgyzstan, it is hardly clear, however, whether the foreign minister would be speaking with the backing of those in power back at home.