Oscar video: Who will win best picture, best original screenplay and other tight races?
"Avatar," "Locker," "Basterds": The state of the race
Bullock campaigns, Streep takes the 5th
"Avatar," "Locker," "Basterds": The state of the race
Bullock campaigns, Streep takes the 5th
Much like erratic swings in the stock market, the fates and fortunes of films in the Oscar race rise and fall with each passing awards show and critic's top 10 list.
A closer look at the winners from the film awards handed out so far this season would seem to indicate a clear favorite for best picture at the Academy Awards on Sunday: "The Hurt Locker."
The Kathryn Bigelow-directed film has been nominated by each of eight major industry guilds and critics groups that we looked at for the chart at left -- and it won half of the top honors.
The next closest competitor: "Up in the Air," with two wins and nominations from all but one group.
"Precious," "Inglourious Basterds" and "Avatar," ranked by number of nominations by the eight groups, round out the top five in the newly expanded field of 10 best picture nominees.
Down at the bottom of the list, with no nods among the eight groups: "The Blind Side," starring acting nominee Sandra Bullock. But just like the whims of the financial markets, you can never count a movie out until the final bell sounds.
-- Brady MacDonald
L.A. Times reviews of the 10 best picture nominees:
* The Hurt LockerThe publisher of a nonfiction book that Cameron and his Lightstorm Entertainment production company had optioned about the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki is recalling the title.
Charles Pellegrino's "The Last Train From Hiroshima" tells the story of several figures who were part of the fateful mission that saw the Enola Gay drop an atomic bomb on Japan at the end of WWII. But according to the Associated Press, the book, which was released in January and currently has about 18,000 copies in print, has run aground because of questions about Pellegrino's research, including the not-small matter of whether two of the main characters he wrote about indeed existed. Today, publisher Henry Holt has said it will cease shipping the book to stores and give a full refund to retailers and wholesalers who want to return the title.
And it's unlikely the world's most famous director will want to cherrypick material from a contested book for a movie rooted in a true story.
Of course, it's possible Cameron could still produce or direct a Hiroshima film based on other material. But given the questions about the book -- and given that Cameron recently said in an interview that "it looks like we won't be seeing anything substantial emerge for at least the next little bit" on the movie anyway -- you can pretty much bet this won't be a priority. Which, Cameron fans will be quick to note, could be one more obstacle cleared on the path to "Avatar 2."
-- Steven Zeitchik
Photo: The ruins of Hiroshima. Credit: Stanley Troutman / Associated Press
“Avatar” picked up another award Tuesday night, but Oscar prognosticators probably shouldn't read anything into it -- “The Hurt Locker,” "Up in the Air" and “Inglourious Basterds” weren’t eligible.
James Cameron’s blockbuster was named best live-action 3-D feature by the month-old International 3D Society, kicking off its inaugural Lumiere Awards at Grauman's Chinese Theater in Hollywood.
“Up,” also in the running for Academy Award best picture honors, was honored as best animated 3-D feature, and another Pixar work, “Partly Cloudy,” won in the category for best short 3-D motion picture/narrative.
The International 3D Society was formed Jan. 21 with a stated mission of advancing “the achievement of professionals working in the arts and technologies of Stereoscopic 3D.” Its board of governors includes a diverse group -- studio executives, the heads of 3-D and post-production houses and even a PhD at UC Berkeley's school of optometry. The awards were voted on by more than 100 film industry 3-D experts, a spokesman for the group said.
Among other winners Tuesday were the Imax film “Under the Sea 3D” as best 3-D documentary, “G-Force” as best 2-D-to-3-D converted feature, and “Avatar’s” Neytiri (played by Zoe Saldana) as best 3-D character of the year.
-- Lee Margulies
Photo of Neytiri from "Avatar": WETA / Associated Press
So how important is the auditioning process in the making of a film? It depends on whom you ask. James Cameron certainly has a different approach than Lee Daniels, for instance.
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James Cameron (and friends) on 'Avatar's' box office domination
Box-office pundits, including our own colleague Ben Fritz, are abuzz over the question of whether "Dear John" could finally take down "Avatar" at the box office this weekend, knocking the film off its No. 1 perch for the first time since it opened the week before Christmas.
To do that, the Nicholas Sparks-derived tearjerker would probably need to make at least $20 million and hope that enough Avatar-inclined men stay home in anticipation of the Peyton Manning show on Sunday; in other words, prospective filmgoers would need to opt for the man in blue over the blue men.
That's a tall order even on Super Bowl weekend, and even as "Avatar" has been in theaters for nearly two months. "Dear John" simply may not be tearjerky enough -- the premiere we attended didn't include nearly as many in the crowd reaching for Kleenexes as you might have expected -- and Sparks has a tendency toward solid but not overwhelming numbers his first frame out. (The last three films based on his books all opened remarkably close to one another, in the $12-million to $14-million range.)"Ghostbusters," for instance (which held for 10 consecutive weeks) is a supernatural adventure with a "Saturday Night Live" level of comedy. "Crocodile Dundee" (nine weeks) is a fish-out-of-water comedy and an outback adventure. "Beverly Hills Cop" (14 weeks) is a fish-out-of-water comedy that's also a (relatively) dense police procedural. Even "Titanic" combined one movie with another: Cameron-esque spectacle and a melodramatic love story (and Leonardo DiCaprio, a genre unto himself).
It's admittedly hard to pinpoint a single overarching reason why a film will hold the top spot for months. But given these examples, it's also clear that when you have one movie that's really two, you may also have a film that will be flocked to by one audience and then quietly, over time, discovered by another.
In this light, Avatar's achievement is even more surprising,since it's really only trying to be one thing -- an action epic (that love story isn't exactly "Gone With the Wind)." But it does bring a second element -- only it's not narrative, but technological. Most people buying tickets to the Cameron-fest at this late date may not have been initially interested but are coming out because they want to see if the film really looks as good or as different as everyone says it does. Or, as the anecdotal reports are suggesting, they've seen it, but they want to see it again in a different format. Sometimes it's good to have comedy to go along with your action. And sometimes it's just good to have some cool-looking blue people.
-- Steven Zeitchik
Photo: "Avatar." Credit: 20th Century Fox
With about 24 hours of distance from, and clarity on, the Oscar nominations, it's as refreshing as a glass of lemonade to find that the choices look as diverse and sprightly as they did in the bleary hours of Tuesday morning.
It's not just that nearly every major genre -- the action epic, the coming-of-age love story, the science-fiction saga, the uplifting drama, the dark drama, the cartoon romp and the war movie -- is represented but that the best examples of the form made the cut. That's clear from the triumph of "District 9" over "Star Trek," but it's true right on down the line, with "Up," "Precious" and pretty much every nominee with an (inferior) analogue, including "Blind Side" over its less worthy inspirational-sports-movie counterpart, "Invictus."
Some argue that the extra five slots mean little, a chance for the academy to make a naked play for viewers. But there's something to be said for simply making sure -- in a way that's organic, not name checking -- that films that are executed well get their best picture due regardless of genre, just as the academy (mostly) used to do, before it went all dark and niche and ignored entire categories. And that's exactly what the group did this year. Even those who rolled their eyes at "The Blind Side" were hard-pressed, when pressed, to come up with a convincing alternative.
("The Hangover" is probably the best counterexample. And it's a fun movie. But it's not a perfect comedy even by its own standards, more anarchic and outrageous. Besides, the academy is always going to adhere a little to tradition, and a story of a spitfire woman fighting an intractable social problem follows in the footsteps of "Erin Brockovich" and other worthy films. You need to look a lot harder to find an Oscar precedent for "The Hangover." Comedies are hard, say its defenders. And they are. But playing hockey is hard too, yet you won't see Alexander Ovechkin making any acceptance speeches at the Kodak.)
It's not fashionable to react to an Oscar announcement with an absence of complaining. Which is why some are intent on keeping the kvetching alive. Most of the movies that round out the bottom five, bray the naysayers, have a snowball's chance in Fiji of actually winning. (That's actually true. The voting system works such that you need a broad consensus of voters, not just die-hards, to capture the top prize, so even if a few hundred academy members are moved to vote for "District 9" as their No. 1 choice, the film won't win.) So why, they say, did the academy even bother? The race that will unfold in the next few weeks is no different from the race in any previous years between a couple of elite films.-- Steven Zeitchik
(For full Oscar coverage and commentary, click on my colleague Kenneth Turan's take on the field's diversity, John Horn's piece on the causes and effects of the high-grossing Oscar nominees, Claudia Eller and Ben Fritz reporting on the nominees' attempt at a box-office bounce and Patrick Goldstein on the gauntlet that the Grammys have thrown down to the Oscars.)
Photo: Sandra Bullock and Quinton Aaron in "The Blind Side." Credit: Warner Bros.
Last year at this time, "Slumdog Millionaire" was such a prohibitive favorite that at some point all the other contenders seemed to take the rest of the season off.
This year hasn't been nearly as predictable, nor as uniform. Favorites have had a shakier hold on their categories, and no movie has spread as widely across ballots as "Slumdog" did. Which has gotten pundits (at least until recently) excited about the prospect of a left-field phenomenon.
But as the award season moves from confusion to clarity — as it began to do when “Avatar” won best film and best director prizes at the Golden Globes on Sunday night — it also risks veering into certainty. It increasingly looks like this year won’t have a “Crash” or a “Departed,” which each made late, post-Globes surges to win best picture at the Oscars. Much of awards season thrives on suspense, so that’s not exactly a good thing.
Pundits do note a few areas could see drama. By handing best actress prizes to both Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock, the Globes cleared up nothing on that two-woman race; until SAG chooses between them this weekend, it’s almost impossible to handicap a winner. Kathryn Bigelow remains a strong candidate to take the best director prize away from ex-husband James Cameron, especially if the Directors Guild endorses her with its top honors Jan. 30.
This year there’s also a full week between the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s Globes announcements and the deadline for academy nomination ballots, which means that the HFPA could stir the pot by getting “The Hangover” back on voters’ minds and into that 10th best picture slot. Which, given that it could mean Mike Tyson holding court at Kodak Theatre, may or may not be a good thing.
But those are dramas of an underwhelming sort. For all the shrugging and upturned palms this year coming out of the New Hampshire primary of awards season, the Toronto International Film Festival, the surprises are fast dwindling. Oscar prospects for Jeff Bridges (best actor), Christoph Waltz and Mo'nique (best supporting actor and actress), “Inglourious Basterds” (original screenplay) and "Up in the Air" (adapted screenplay) are pretty much sure bets. And "Avatar" is looking and more and more steely in the best picture category. There appear to be few opportunities for Jets-like upsets and in turn few great awards-season subplots.
Then again, as counterintuitive as it may seem, “Avatar” represents a comeback story of its own. Sure, it’s not exactly “Slumdog” — Fox gave its director just a little bit more leeway (and money) than Warner Bros. did Danny Boyle. And the movie didn’t require a last-minute bailout from another studio to see the light of day.
But given that James Cameron disappeared for more than a decade with barely a playful hint as to his professional life outside an “Entourage” storyline, there’s something oddly left field about his candidacy too. And given initial skepticism about whether his movie would be a commercial and awards-season smash — let alone match the insanely high bar of “Titanic” — the 3-D film’s success lends it a distinctly "Slumdog"-ish, beat-the-odds quality.
“At the time of ‘Titanic,’ when we won the Golden Globe and we were on our way to being No. 1, I’m thinking ‘Enjoy this ride; it’s never going to happen again,’ ” Cameron said backstage at the Globes on Sunday night. “With ‘Avatar,’ we thought it was a shameless engine of commerce. We’re not going to try to impress the critics. And here we are again.” Given the growing inevitability of this race, that’s true in more ways than one.
-- Steven Zeitchik
Photo: "Avatar." Credit: WETA/Twentieth Century Fox
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