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Senate Results NSW

Quota: 567,810. Antony Green's Seat Profile



Elected Candidates

HEFFERNAN Bill (Liberal/National Party)

HUTCHINS Steve (Australian Labor Party)

FIERRAVANTI-WELLS Concetta (Liberal/National Party)

FAULKNER John (Australian Labor Party)

NASH Fiona (Liberal/National Party)

FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

Antony Green's Analysis

The key feature of the NSW distribution of preferences is the way that Liberals For Forests and the Christian Democrats harvest preferences throughout the count, choking off the flow of preferences to the Greens. This prevents the Greens from passing the Labor vote at the end of the count, resulting in Labor winning the final vacancy on Green preferences. The most important preferences were those of the Australian Democrats. Had Democrat preferences flown to the Greens rather than Liberals for Forests and the Christian Democrats, then the final vacancy would have been won by the Greens' John Kaye. Instead, Labor's Michael Foreshaw won the sixth and final vacancy, the state splitting 3 Coalition, 3 Labor, the National Party's Fiona Nash winning a seat previously held by the Australian Democrats' Aden Ridgeway.

Counts

At Count 1

Total Primary Votes by Group

Comments: On primary votes, the Coalition win three seats and Labor two, with what looks like a tight tussle between Labor and the Greens for the final vacancy. However, the preference deals in NSW were labyrinthine, and as the count unfolds, Glen Druery of Liberals for Forests makes a dramatic rise from a lowly tenth ranking at the start of the count.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Liberal/National Party 0 1,748,676 3.0797
Australian Labor Party 0 1,445,024 2.5449
The Greens 0 291,884 0.5141
Christian Democratic Party 0 103,763 0.1827
Australian Democrats 0 87,377 0.1539
One Nation 0 76,023 0.1339
H.E.M.P. 0 24,022 0.0423
Family First 0 22,218 0.0391
The Fishing Party 0 21,324 0.0376
liberals for forests 0 21,185 0.0373
Lower Excise Party 0 19,157 0.0337
Outdoor Recreation Party 0 13,822 0.0243
Group A Independents 0 13,635 0.0240
Progressive Labour Party 0 13,179 0.0232
Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party 0 12,920 0.0228
Australians Against Further Immigration 0 11,477 0.0202
No GST 0 9,714 0.0171
Group K Independents 0 7,041 0.0124
New Country Party 0 6,218 0.0110
The Great Australians 0 4,699 0.0083
Socialist Alliance 0 4,295 0.0076
Save the ADI Site Party 0 3,278 0.0058
Non-Custodial Parents Party 0 2,932 0.0052
Australian Progressive Alliance 0 2,764 0.0049
Citizens Electoral Council 0 2,478 0.0044
Nuclear Disarmament 0 2,168 0.0038
Group D Independents 0 1,638 0.0029
Ungrouped Candidates 0 1,082 0.0019
Group W Independents 0 559 0.0010
Group W Independents 0 116 0.0002

At End of Count 177

Election of 3 Liberal/National candidate, two Labor candidates, and the exclusion of numerous candidates

506 ticket votes originally from Group W Independents distributed by preference 3 to GALLAGHER Mick (No GST). 53 below the line preferences also distributed.

1,393 ticket votes originally from Group D Independents distributed by preference 3 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests). 245 below the line preferences also distributed.

2,014 ticket votes originally from Nuclear Disarmament distributed by preference 3 to KAYE John (The Greens). 154 below the line preferences also distributed.

2,304 ticket votes originally from Citizens Electoral Council distributed by preference 3 to HOWLETT Bruce (Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party). 174 below the line preferences also distributed.

2,539 ticket votes originally from Australian Progressive Alliance distributed by preference 3 to RIDGEWAY Aden (Australian Democrats). 225 below the line preferences also distributed.

1,082 below the line preferences for Ungrouped candidate distributed.

116 below the line preferences for Group U distributed.

Comments: By this count, only one candidate remains in each of 23 groups. Groups excluded so far include five groups with ticket votes along with one group and the ungrouped column with no ticket votes.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Australian Labor Party -560 308,844 0.5439
The Greens +2,307 294,191 0.5181
Christian Democratic Party +178 103,941 0.1831
Australian Democrats +3,098 90,475 0.1593
One Nation +236 76,259 0.1343
Liberal/National Party -439 44,807 0.0789
H.E.M.P. +75 24,097 0.0424
liberals for forests +1,498 22,683 0.0399
Family First +200 22,418 0.0395
The Fishing Party +225 21,549 0.0380
Lower Excise Party +63 19,220 0.0338
Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party +2,356 15,276 0.0269
Outdoor Recreation Party +73 13,895 0.0245
Group A Independents +151 13,786 0.0243
Progressive Labour Party +35 13,214 0.0233
Australians Against Further Immigration +65 11,542 0.0203
No GST +639 10,353 0.0182
Group K Independents +88 7,129 0.0126
New Country Party +56 6,274 0.0110
The Great Australians +42 4,741 0.0083
Socialist Alliance +89 4,384 0.0077
Save the ADI Site Party +41 3,319 0.0058
Non-Custodial Parents Party +53 2,985 0.0053

At End of Count 201

Successive exclusion of MARKS Grahame (Non-Custodial Parents Party), MOON Kylie (Socialist Alliance), McHOLME Brett (The Great Australians) and BROWN Geoff (Save the ADI Site Party)

2,636 ticket votes originally from Non-Custodial Parents Party distributed by preference 3 to BROWN Geoff (Save the ADI Site Party) and then by preference 5 to HOWLETT Bruce (Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party). 349 below the line preferences also distributed.

3,697 ticket votes originally from Socialist Alliance distributed by preference 3 to KAYE John (The Greens). 687 below the line preferences also distributed.

4,563 ticket votes originally from The Great Australians distributed by preference 3 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests). 178 below the line preferences also distributed.

2,907 ticket votes originally from Save the ADI Site Party distributed by preference 3 to KAYE John (The Greens). 412 below the line preferences also distributed.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Australian Labor Party +139 308,983 0.5442
The Greens +7,145 301,336 0.5307
Christian Democratic Party +40 103,981 0.1831
Australian Democrats +131 90,606 0.1596
One Nation +77 76,336 0.1344
Liberal/National Party +59 44,866 0.0790
liberals for forests +4,587 27,270 0.0480
H.E.M.P. +112 24,209 0.0426
Family First +62 22,480 0.0396
The Fishing Party +36 21,585 0.0380
Lower Excise Party +48 19,268 0.0339
Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party +2,702 17,978 0.0317
Outdoor Recreation Party +26 13,921 0.0245
Group A Independents +24 13,810 0.0243
Progressive Labour Party +54 13,268 0.0234
Australians Against Further Immigration +64 11,606 0.0204
No GST +50 10,403 0.0183
Group K Independents +18 7,147 0.0126
New Country Party +37 6,311 0.0111

At End of Count 223

Successive exclusion of GRAHAM Greg (New Country Party), ZITEK Martin (Group K Independents), KITSON David (Australians Against Further Immigration) and WOLDRING Klaas (Progressive Labour Party)

5,941 ticket votes originally from New Country Party distributed by preference 3 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests). 370 below the line preferences also distributed.

6,989 ticket votes originally from Group K Independents distributed by preference 7 to GALLAGHER Mick (No GST). 158 below the line preferences also distributed.

10,735 ticket votes originally from Australians Against Further Immigration distributed by preference 5 to GALLAGHER Mick (No GST). 871 below the line preferences also distributed.

13,011 ticket votes originally from Progressive Labour Party distributed by preference 3 to BALDERSTONE Michael Taylor (H.E.M.P.). 257 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: By this stage of the count, preference deals are having an important impact. Candidates like Glen Druery from Liberals for Forests and Mick Gallagher from No GST have engaged in complex preference deals and are passing candidates that did not arrange preference swaps with other small parties. In particular, No GST has risen from 17th position at the start of the count to 9th.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Australian Labor Party +106 309,089 0.5444
The Greens +207 301,543 0.5311
Christian Democratic Party +79 104,060 0.1833
Australian Democrats +146 90,752 0.1598
One Nation +286 76,622 0.1349
Liberal/National Party +127 44,993 0.0792
H.E.M.P. +13,083 37,292 0.0657
liberals for forests +5,991 33,261 0.0586
No GST +17,783 28,186 0.0496
Family First +53 22,533 0.0397
The Fishing Party +49 21,634 0.0381
Lower Excise Party +147 19,415 0.0342
Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party +77 18,055 0.0318
Outdoor Recreation Party +34 13,955 0.0246
Group A Independents +134 13,944 0.0246

At End of Count 247

Successive exclusion of ETTRIDGE David (Group A Independents), BELGRAVE Leon A (Outdoor Recreation Party), HOWLETT Bruce (Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party) and SMITH Robert (The Fishing Party)

11,754 ticket votes originally from Group A Independents distributed by preference 5 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

13,098 ticket votes originally from Outdoor Recreation Party distributed by preference 3 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

12,156 ticket votes originally from Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party distributed by preference 4 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

2,304 ticket votes originally from Citizens Electoral Council distributed by preference 6 to RIDGEWAY Aden (Australian Democrats)

2,636 ticket votes originally from Non-Custodial Parents Party distributed by preference 10 to O'LOUGHLIN Dave (Lower Excise Party)

20,604 ticket votes originally from The Fishing Party distributed by preference 7 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

5,036 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: The full extent of Liberals for Forests prefence deals are revealed by these four exclusions. Deals now push the party ahead of One Nation and leave the party trailing the Australian Democrats by just 4,000 votes. So far Liberals for Forests has more than quardupled its vote.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Australian Labor Party +357 309,446 0.5450
The Greens +215 301,758 0.5314
Christian Democratic Party +310 104,370 0.1838
Australian Democrats +3,346 94,098 0.1657
liberals for forests +57,687 90,948 0.1602
One Nation +1,109 77,731 0.1369
Liberal/National Party +588 45,581 0.0803
H.E.M.P. +139 37,431 0.0659
No GST +545 28,731 0.0506
Family First +222 22,755 0.0401
Lower Excise Party +2,975 22,390 0.0394

At End of Count 253

O'LOUGHLIN Dave (Lower Excise Party) excluded

18,459 ticket votes originally from Lower Excise Party distributed by preference 7 to GALLAGHER Mick (No GST)

2,636 ticket votes originally from Non-Custodial Parents Party distributed by preference 20 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

1,295 below the preferences also distributed

Comments: No GST and Liberals for Forests continue to harvest preferences.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Australian Labor Party +89 309,535 0.5451
The Greens +118 301,876 0.5316
Christian Democratic Party +48 104,418 0.1839
Australian Democrats +89 94,187 0.1659
liberals for forests +2,749 93,697 0.1650
One Nation +126 77,857 0.1371
No GST +18,652 47,383 0.0834
Liberal/National Party +132 45,713 0.0805
H.E.M.P. +265 37,696 0.0664
Family First +106 22,861 0.0403

At End of Count 259

WOODS Joan (Family First) excluded

20,692 ticket votes originally from Family First distributed by preference 3 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party). 2,169 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: Unlike other states, Family First did not do well with preferences. Most preferences flowing to Family First had first been caputerd by Liberals for Forests. So having received few preferences by this stage, Family First are excluded, their preferences flowing to the Christian Democrats.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Australian Labor Party +130 309,665 0.5454
The Greens +150 302,026 0.5319
Christian Democratic Party +21,694 126,112 0.2221
Australian Democrats +146 94,333 0.1661
liberals for forests +76 93,773 0.1651
One Nation +132 77,989 0.1374
No GST +246 47,629 0.0839
Liberal/National Party +216 45,929 0.0809
H.E.M.P. +64 37,760 0.0665

At End of Count 265

BALDERSTONE Michael Taylor (H.E.M.P.) excluded

22,548 ticket votes originally from H.E.M.P. distributed by preference 8 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

13,011 ticket votes originally from Progressive Labour Party distributed by preference 11 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

2,201 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: The persuasive powers of Glenn Druery in preference negotions were further revealed at this count. Liberals for Forests gained the preferences of two leftish parties in the Progressive Labour Party and H.E.M.P. When Druery is eventually excluded, these preferences flow to the Greens, but the Greens would rather have received the preferences earlier in the count.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Australian Labor Party +257 309,922 0.5458
The Greens +805 302,831 0.5333
liberals for forests +35,757 129,530 0.2281
Christian Democratic Party +34 126,146 0.2222
Australian Democrats +224 94,557 0.1665
One Nation +191 78,180 0.1377
No GST +310 47,939 0.0844
Liberal/National Party +160 46,089 0.0812

At End of Count 271

TIERNEY John (Liberal/National Party) excluded

41,780 ticket votes originally from Liberal/National Party distributed by preference 7 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party). Around 4,309 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: The exclusion of the fourth Coalition candidate at this count helps the cause of the Christian Democrats. However, the combined Labor and Green vote exceeds a quota. The Greens preferences flow straight to Labor, while Labor's preferences to the Greens flow by complex means after first passing through Liberals for Forests and partly though the Christian Democrats. As long as Labor stays ahead of the Greens, the only outcome now possible is a Labor victory. If Labor falls behind the Greens, Labor preferences would not necessarily flow to the Greens, though victory by anyone else would depend on who remained in the count.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Australian Labor Party +447 310,369 0.5466
The Greens +185 303,016 0.5337
Christian Democratic Party +42,562 168,708 0.2971
liberals for forests +836 130,366 0.2296
Australian Democrats +867 95,424 0.1681
One Nation +897 79,077 0.1393
No GST +215 48,154 0.0848

At End of Count 277

GALLAGHER Mick (No GST) excluded

6,989 ticket votes originally from Group K Independents distributed by preference 24 to RIDGEWAY Aden (Australian Democrats)

18,459 ticket votes originally from Lower Excise Party distributed by preference 9 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

10,735 ticket votes originally from Australians Against Further Immigration distributed by preference 7 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

506 ticket votes originally from Group W Independents distributed by preference 9 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

9,307 ticket votes originally from No GST distributed by preference 9 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

2,158 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: After a dramatic rise in the count, Mick Gallagher of No GST is finally excluded, most of the vote currently residing with him now flowing to Liberals for Forests. Liberals for Forests now pass both the Christian Democrats and the Australian Democrats.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Australian Labor Party +245 310,614 0.5470
The Greens +445 303,461 0.5344
liberals for forests +39,310 169,676 0.2988
Christian Democratic Party +402 169,110 0.2978
Australian Democrats +7,270 102,694 0.1809
One Nation +441 79,518 0.1400

At End of Count 283

NEWSON Judith (One Nation) excluded

72,306 ticket votes originally from One Nation distributed by preference 18 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party). 7,212 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: As has become the norm, no other parties chose to direct preferences to One Nation. The party is now excluding, its preferences flowing to the Christian Democrats.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Australian Labor Party +1,387 312,001 0.5495
The Greens +649 304,110 0.5356
Christian Democratic Party +74,410 243,520 0.4289
liberals for forests +1,322 170,998 0.3012
Australian Democrats +1,546 104,240 0.1836

At End of Count 289

RIDGEWAY Aden (Australian Democrats) excluded

74,428 ticket votes originally from Australian Democrats distributed by preference 11 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

2,539 ticket votes originally from Australian Progressive Alliance distributed by preference 6 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

6,989 ticket votes originally from Group K Independents distributed by preference 39 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

2,304 ticket votes originally from Citizens Electoral Council distributed by preference 9 to KAYE John (The Greens)

17,980 below the line preferences also distributed

Comments: Critical to the final outcome at this point is the fact the Democrat preferences do not flow to the Greens. Instead, Democrat preferences flowed to Liberals for Forests at this count and the Christian Democrats at the next count. This prevented the Greens from closing the gap on Labor. Note that Liberals for Forests had attracted very few below the line votes during the count. As a result, at this stage the Christian Democrats had a small lead over Liberals for Forests, resulting in Glenn Druery's exclusion at the next count. Note that even if the Christian Democrats had been excluded at this count, Labor would still have won the final vacancy. The crucial point in determining the final vacancy in NSW was the ability of Labor to keep its lead over the Greens.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Australian Labor Party +6,314 318,315 0.5606
The Greens +10,087 314,197 0.5533
Christian Democratic Party +8,539 252,059 0.4439
liberals for forests +78,988 249,986 0.4403

At End of Count 295

DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests) excluded

11,754 Votes originally from Group A Independents distributed by preference 52 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

74,428 Votes originally from Australian Democrats distributed by preference 25 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

5,941 Votes originally from New Country Party distributed by preference 43 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

1,393 Votes originally from Group D Independents distributed by preference 62 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

4,563 Votes originally from The Great Australians distributed by preference 42 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

12,156 Votes originally from Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party distributed by preference 42 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

2,539 Votes originally from Australian Progressive Alliance distributed by preference 21 to KAYE John (The Greens)

7,516 Votes originally from H.E.M.P. (Ticket 1 of 3) distributed by preference 38 to KAYE John (The Greens)

7,516 Votes originally from H.E.M.P. (Ticket 2 of 3) distributed by preference 38 to KAYE John (The Greens)

7,516 Votes originally from H.E.M.P. (Ticket 3 of 3) distributed by preference 43 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

20,857 Votes originally from liberals for forests distributed by preference 44 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

18,459 Votes originally from Lower Excise Party distributed by preference 52 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

10,735 Votes originally from Australians Against Further Immigration distributed by preference 15 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

13,011 Votes originally from Progressive Labour Party distributed by preference 18 to KAYE John (The Greens)

2,636 Votes originally from Non-Custodial Parents Party distributed by preference 45 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

506 Votes originally from Group W Independents distributed by preference 30 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

13,098 Votes originally from Outdoor Recreation Party distributed by preference 17 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

9,307 Votes originally from No GST distributed by preference 50 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

20,604 Votes originally from The Fishing Party distributed by preference 66 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

5,151 below the line preferences also distributed

Comments: The scale of Glenn Druery's preference deals are revealed by the large number of ticket votes distributed at this count. Crucially, the Democrat ticket votes now flowed to the Christian Democrats, which left the Labor total ahead of the Greens. Despite this count putting the Christian Democrats into first place, it is the fact that the Greens remain in third place which determines the final vacancy.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Christian Democratic Party +151,307 403,366 0.7104
Australian Labor Party +65,863 384,178 0.6766
The Greens +32,623 346,820 0.6108

Candidate Excluded

KAYE John (The Greens)

3,697 Votes originally from Socialist Alliance distributed by preference 21 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

2,539 Votes originally from Australian Progressive Alliance distributed by preference 35 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

7,516 Votes originally from H.E.M.P. (Ticket 1 of 3) distributed by preference 49 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

7,516 Votes originally from H.E.M.P. (Ticket 2 of 3) distributed by preference 49 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

2,014 Votes originally from Nuclear Disarmament distributed by preference 64 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

2,304 Votes originally from Citizens Electoral Council distributed by preference 31 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

13,011 Votes originally from Progressive Labour Party distributed by preference 29 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

2,907 Votes originally from Save the ADI Site Party distributed by preference 65 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

269,921 Votes originally from The Greens distributed by preference 26 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

34,776 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: With the exclusion of the Greens, Labor pulls ahead to win the final vacancy.

New Totals
Party Name Transfer New Total New Quota
Australian Labor Party +336,951 721,129 1.2700
Christian Democratic Party +8,548 411,914 0.7254

Candidate Elected

FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)