Here's who I predict will score bids when Emmy Awards nominations are unveiled Thursday morning:

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Breaking Bad"
"Damages"
"Dexter"
"Mad Men"
"The Good Wife"
"Lost"

ALTERNATES: "Big Love," "Friday Night Lights," "House M.D.," "Sons of Anarchy," "Treme"

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"The Big Bang Theory"
"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
"Family Guy"
"Glee"
"Modern Family"
"30 Rock"

ALTERNATES: "Community," "How I Met Your Mother," "Entourage," "Nurse Jackie," "The Office," "Parks and Recreation," "Weeds"

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Simon Baker ("The Mentalist")
Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad")
Michael C. Hall ("Dexter")
Jon Hamm ("Mad Men")
Hugh Laurie ("House")
Timothy Olyphant ("Justified")

ALTERNATES: Matt Bomer ("White Collar"), Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights"), Matthew Fox ("Lost"), Peter Krause ("Parenthood"), Denis Leary ("Rescue Me"), Bill Paxton ("Big Love"), Wendell Pierce ("Treme"), Kiefer Sutherland ("24")

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close ("Damages")
Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU")
January Jones ("Mad Men")
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife")
Katey Sagal ("Sons of Anarchy")
Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")

ALTERNATES: Sally Field ("Brothers and Sisters"), Anna Gunn ("Breaking Bad"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Melissa Leo ("Treme"), Anna Paquin ("True Blood")

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Steve Carell ("The Office")
Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock")
Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm")
Matthew Morrison ("Glee")
Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory")
Tony Shalhoub ("Monk")

ALTERNATES: David Duchovny ("Californication"), Joel McHale ("Community"), Thomas Jane ("Hung"), Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men")

BEST REALITY/COMPETITION SHOW
(Front-runners)
"The Amazing Race"
"American Idol"
"America's Next Top Model"
"Celebrity Apprentice"
"Dancing with the Stars"
"Project Runway"
"So You Think You Can Dance"
"Top Chef"
"Survivor"

SPOTLIGHT: For seven years, "Amazing Race" has zoomed past TV's top-rated show in this awards race. Now Emmy-watchers wonder: Can "American Idol" ever catch up? Will the exit of Simon Cowell trip up its Emmy hopes? Will "Dancing with the Stars" be the show that finally trots ahead?

(Possible)
"America's Next Best Dance Crew"
"Big Brother"
"The Biggest Loser"
"Iron Chef America"
"Top Chef Masters"

(Long Shots)
"Dance Your ... Off"
"RuPaul's Drag Race"
"The Singing Bee"

Photo: "Amazing Race" (CBS)

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"American Idol" has lost the Emmy for best reality-competition show to "Amazing Race" for the last seven years, but the songbird smackdown finally has a good chance to win, thanks to what it plans to submit to judges.

All nominees must enter one episode as an example of their best work from the past TV season. Gold Derby has learned exclusively that "Idol" will submit last night's spectacular two-hour finale that had everything: Simon Cowell's farewell (no, they didn't drop a house on him); appearances by the Bret Michaels, Carrie Underwood, Kris Allen, Alice Cooper, Bee Gees, Michael McDonald, Christina Aguilera, Alanis Morissette; even "a Kanye West moment" when a former contestant grabbed the microphone and insulted Simon. Oh, yeah, and they also crowned a winner (Lee DeWyze). It's the most exciting Emmy episode entry ever.

Meantime, we've also learned that "Amazing Race" plans to enter "I Think We're Fighting the Germans, Right?" in which the teams reenact World War I. "Dancing with the Stars" will enter the season opener. "Top Chef": "Vivre Las Vegas" (contestants performed for French chefs in the season opener), "Project Runway": "Sew Much Pleasure" (guest judge Jessica Alba). Those five shows were all nominated over the last several years and will probably return again. Read the views of our forum posters here.

Photo: Crystal Bowersox, Lee DeWyze and Ryan Seacrest on "American Idol." Credit: Fox TV

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"The Amazing Race" wrapped up its 16th installment Sunday night with the kind of nail-biting finish that has won it seven consecutive Emmy Awards for best reality competition series.

Battling brothers Jordan and Dan Pious crossed the finish line first to win the $1-million prize. At the final roadblock in San Francisco, the pair was  quick to piece together a puzzle about memorable events over the first 11 legs of this race around the world. Their success left fan favorites cowboy brothers Jet and Cord McCoy in second place while one-time beauty queen and viral video sensation Caite Upton and her model beau Brent Horne had to settle for third spot.

The show chronicling a race around the world has never lost its Emmy category since it was created in 2003. That winning streak has soured two of its competitors. At last year's Emmys, "Survivor" star Jeff Probst won best reality TV host for the second year in a row over, among others, "Amazing Race" host Phil Keoghan. Probst told reporters backstage he thought, "Maybe 'Amazing Race' should do what Oprah did and pull itself out of competition." Moments later "Amazing Race" producer Bert Van Munster was asked by reporters if he'd do just that. He replied, "I'm going to discuss it with my committee here, but it's unlikely," adding "It was very intimidating to win for the seventh time."

And last month, Donald Trump spoke of his determination to avenge his Emmy losses for "The Apprentice" (2004, 2005) with a win this year for the third season of the celebrity version of the show. He told Randee Dawn of the Hollywood Reporter that the Emmys have "lost credibility. Instead of shows that deserve to win, they pick 'Amazing Race.' It's a very sad commentary." However, as Randee reported, "Perhaps Trump is sore over what happened in 2004, the first year that 'Apprentice' and 'Race' faced off. Ever assured, Trump recalls he was halfway out of his seat when the Emmy presenter began announcing 'Race' as the winner. 'I was standing up to go down there and pick up the Emmy,' he says. 'Incredible. It's a joke. If the Emmys want their ratings back, they have to pick shows that deserve it.'"

There's a cruel double standard applied to the repeat Emmy victories by "The Amazing Race" and "The Daily Show" — both of which have swept their categories (best reality program, best variety series, respectively) seven times in a row.

When "Race" prevailed, amazingly again (it's never lost this category in the seven years of its existence), there was grumbling back in the press room. No one suggested it didn't deserve to win. The harrumphing was all about, "Oh, it won again? Isn't enough enough?"

"Survivor" host Jeff Probst even had the lousy manners to say, "Maybe 'Amazing Race' should do what Oprah did and pull itself out of competition." Moments later "Amazing" producer Bert Van Munster was asked by reporters if he'd do just that. He replied, "I'm going to discuss it with my committee here, but it's unlikely."

However, when "The Daily Show" won again, none of the journalists seemed to mind, and nobody mentioned the Oprah option. Why?

The answer's obvious. Journalists think Jon Stewart is cool, so no one has the guts to suggest — out loud — that he should bow out. Daring to utter such a thing would risk instant ambush, flogging and crucifixion by peers. But if the basis for complaining about repeat victories is monotonous repetition, then both shows should be held to the same standard, shouldn't they?

If you wish to argue that "The Daily Show" deserves to win and "Amazing Race" doesn't (and no one I know has made that argument publicly), then consider this: A good case can be made that "The Daily Show" didn't deserve to win this year. It beat a nominee that was universally acclaimed to be one of the most relevant, important and brilliant programs of the past TV year: "Saturday Night Live" not only had a superb season, creatively speaking, but its riffs on U.S. presidential politics starring Tina Fey and Amy Poehler were the water-cooler talk of the nation. Did "The Daily Show" really deserve to beat that? Of course not. So how did it happen?

There are quirks of human nature that can be routinely observed as factors behind who wins Emmys. Let's start with Stewart's category: best variety series. Programs with multiple hosts seldom win Emmys. We see that all the time at the Daytime Emmys, where just a few weeks ago, for the first time in this TV award's history, a show with multiple hosts ("The View") finally won best talk show. That same voting bias hurts "Saturday Night Live." The show hasn't won this category since 1993 and that may be one of the reasons. Showbiz awards are all about hugs. When voters look over a ballot, they're more inclined to want to wrap their arms around one person than lots of people.

But there are four solo people emceeing the other four nominees in this category. One of them is just too mean. Even as much as he's liked and admired, no one, let's be honest, wants to hug Bill Maher. In fact, he's Emmy's biggest loser, with 22 defeats, no wins. David Letterman has always been a bit mean, but he's warmed up through the years. He used to win here frequently, but he's been pushed aside ever since Stewart emerged as the new Letterman, the new cool dude with snarky 'tude sitting behind a desk on TV.

The big stunner backstage at the Emmys was a comment by "Survivor" star Jeff Probst, who just won best reality TV host for the second year in a row. When asked by reporters what he thought about "Amazing Race" winning best reality/competition program for the seventh consecutive year, he said, "Maybe 'Amazing Race' should do what Oprah did and pull itself out of competition."

Moments later "Amazing Race" producer Bert Van Munster was asked by reporters if he'd do just that. He replied, "I'm going to discuss it with my committee here, but it's unlikely . . . . It was very intimidating to win for the seventh time."

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Sunday night's penultimate episode of the 14th installment of "The Amazing Race" offered another edge-of-your-seat finish. Sisters Jen and Kisha have been both up and down in the standings but never out. Last week, when Jen floundered in the swimming pool, they soldiered on, determined to finish strong. What a surprise then when host Phil Keoghan told them at the mat that the leg was not over and they had a chance to stay in the race for $1 million.

This week — even after being U-turned by brother-sister team Victor and Tammy and forced to complete both roadblocks — it looked like Jen and Kisha would make it into "Amazing Race's" final three. At the second of these roadblocks, Jen drank bottles of water as she choked down such fried delicacies as scorpion and starfish.  Ahead of Jamie and Cara when leaving the sidewalk stand, Jen then decided to make a pit stop before reaching the pit stop. That decision cost her precious time and she and her big sister were eliminated from "The Amazing Race."

For our forums poster Buffy Mars this was, "One of the biggest mistakes in 'Amazing Race' history." Jackie Schnoop of TV Squad thought, "Yeah, she had to pee. So what?! Dammit, it's a race for a million dollars and because she had to stop to use a port-a-potty, they lost by seconds!" And as Josh Wolk writes over at Entertainment Weekly, "Jen, you were wearing a robe. Pee your pants, no one would know! There can be an 'anything to win' dignity to such a thing, anyway."

"The Amazing Race" may be in the final stages of its 14th installment on CBS, but powerhouse episodes such as Sunday night's are why this six-time champ has never lost the Emmy Award for best reality/competition show, not even to TV's biggest ratings smash, "American Idol." The losers on this leg of "The Amazing Race" were an almost-foregone conclusion with brothers Mark and Michael facing a four-hour penalty. The most excitement was at the front of the pack.

This iteration of the race includes the first deaf contestant, Luke, who is teamed with his signing mother Margie. They have won several legs and are fierce competitors. Last week, they were pitted against sisters LaKisha and Jen as both teams struggled to find their way to the next route marker in Bangkok, Thailand. Each side felt the other had done it wrong and that set the stage for this week's confrontation.

First, Luke and Jen jostled at the clue box with Jen ending up calling the openly gay Luke a derogatory name. Then later in the leg, Luke and Jen got into it again at the next clue box with even more pushing and shoving. Finally, at the mat where they were only seconds apart, the gloves really came off. Jen said she thought Luke was a dirty player while Margie rushed to her son's defense and called out the sisters for mocking his deafness.

"The Amazing Race" emcee Phil Keoghan — who, surprisingly, wasn't nominated last year for the first Emmy awarded to reality show hosts — tried to calm down the combative contestants. His efforts were of no avail. With tensions mounting as the final four teams race for that million-dollar prize, expect even more fireworks. And expect "The Amazing Race" to be a strong contender for a seventh straight Emmy as best reality competition series with episodes such as this one.

Below is one snippet from the show. See more and vote for your favorite here.

Photo credit: CBS

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"American Idol" is being dogged by just the sort of controversy that makes Emmy Awards voters wary. As Richard Rushfield of Idol Tracker reports, "A source close to the show now tells us that Joanna Pacitti was disqualified to avoid the appearance of impropriety. In the last week, tabloids had been reporting on a private relationship between Pacitti and executives of 19 Management, one of the companies overseeing 'Idol.'"

While the show has slipped somewhat in the ratings this season, the addition of the fourth judge — Kara DioGuardi — has been seen as a plus. And by focusing on the personal stories of viable contestants rather than on the delusions of certain would-be singers, "American Idol" has re-established itself as a showcase for up and coming talent. Even the hint of impropriety about a single contestant would have damaged the credibility of the hunt for a new singing star.

Over its first seven seasons, "American Idol" has struck out at the Emmy Awards, winning only two of its 34 bids. And neither of those came in the top race of best reality competition program. Indeed, since that category was introduced in 2003, "The Amazing Race" has won all six years in a row.

And now, just as "American Idol" needs to show it is playing fair, the new season of "The Amazing Race" kicks off Sunday on CBS with the usual superb advance notices from the critics. As Ken Tucker of Entertainment Weekly writes, "There's a crackerjack assortment of 'Race' teams this season, and I really like the way the show has incorporated more '24'-style split-screen editing that lets you know where teams are in relation to each other during competitions. So far, the challenges and roadblocks are real tests of brains and endurance, with a notable lessening of those long jabbering-at-ticket-agents-in-foreign-airports montages that were becoming a drag."

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Photo: AmericanIdol.com

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As I note in my overview article about the Emmy program races (CLICK HERE), TV's top program, "American Idol," has never won best reality-competition show and, even more amazing, "Amazing Race" has never lost.

At the Creative Arts Emmy ceremony last Sunday I caught up with Kynt and Vyxsin — "a couple of Goth kids from Louisville," says Kynt — whose elimination episode of "Amazing Race" will decide that show's fate this year. That's the one that was judged by Emmy voters — and it's a doozie full of thrilling action as five teams compete in Mumbai, India, to thread 108 flowers into a wedding garland, deliver propane gas tanks to residents and ride a rickshaw to a tailor shop.

However, "American Idol" submitted an excellent episode too: the two-hour season finale that not only includes the gripping suspense over which of the two Davids (Cook or Archuletta) will win, but their joint performance of Nickelback's "Hero" and other socko musical turns by Donna Summer, ZZ Top, the Jonas Brothers and past "Idol" champ Carrie Underwood.

The episode selection is so good that "Idol" actually has a shot at winning this year — except for one, big, annoying thing. Nine minutes into the episode there's a stupid plug for Mike Myers' movie bomb "The Love Guru" that refuses to end. Will Emmy voters be so turned off that they'll, literally, turn the DVD screener of the episode off too early?

It's painful to watch. "Idol" producers force the two Davids to sit through a screening of "The Love Guru" and pretend to laugh, then they're subjected to a personal encounter with Guru Pitka himself, who barks unfunny advice at them. Even though the guru dons a beard, he yells at Cook for having facial hair: "It's not the '90s! The last time I saw stubble like that I was at a 'Melrose Place' party." And the prediction he snickers at Archuletta is totally creepy: "Soon you'll have hair in weird and wonderful places!" As if all of that isn't insufferable enough, the "Love Guru" plug continues further into the episode with — no, please, noooooo! — an actual visit by Myers to the set of "Idol," forcing poor Ryan Seacrest to make fumbling small talk and pretend to laugh at Myers' awful "jokes."

Please forgive these crazy Goth kids in this video. Kynt makes an Emmy goof right up front. "Amazing Race" has won the Emmy as best reality-competition show five times straight, not six. At least so far. Maybe, just maybe, this will come true on Sunday night -- thanks to the Love Guru.

Photos: ABC, Fox. Video: Los Angeles Times