Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Nielsen JWS Research marginals mega-poll (and Galaxy and Morgan)

The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose automated phone polling on the weekend were widely noted at the time. The Sydney Morning Herald sells its managing director John Scales as “a renowned pollster” who was director of Morgan from 1992 to 1995, and research director at Crosby Textor from 2002 until earlier this year. However, its methodology is untried, at least in the Australian context: presumably pollsters go to the expense of hiring interviewers for a very good reason (UPDATE: Lukas in comments points to the assessment of legendary US polling analyst Nate Silver, that “there’s not really convincing evidence about whether IVR polls [robopolls] are inferior to regular ones”). Nonetheless, the general tenor of the results is in keeping with polling overall, give or take a few surprises. Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.

Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.

New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper; Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.

Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.

Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.

We also have Galaxy polling another 800 voters in four Queensland marginals – Bonner, Forde, Herbert and Longman – and found happier results for Labor than the Queensland sample from the weekend’s super-survey, with a swing of 3.5 per cent rather than 5.4 per cent. Morgan has also published small-sample polls from Bennelong (300) and La Trobe (200) conducted just this evening, which respectively have the Liberals leading 50.5-49.5 and Labor leading 53-47.

UPDATE: And now state-by-state breakdowns from the past two weeks of Newspoll, both of which had the national result at 52-48. The state two-party are results are 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (a 1.7 per cent swing), 52-48 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4 per cent swing), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (0.7 per cent swing to Labor), 56-44 to Labor in South Australia (3.6 per cent swing to Labor) and 57-43 to the Coalition in Western Australia (3.7 per cent swing to the Coalition).

UPDATE 2: Recent state-level polling results in terms of Labor swing:

TOTAL NSW VIC Qld WA SA
JWS Research -1.1 -2.1 2.4 -5.3 -0.5 -1.6
Galaxy marginals -1.7 -3.1 1.6 -4.3 -2.1 0.0
Newspoll (2 week) -0.7 -1.7 0.7 -2.4 -3.7 3.6
Nielsen (2 week) -1.7 -2.7 3.0 -3.4 -2.7 0.6
Essential (2 week) -1.7 -5.7 0.7 -3.4 0.3 1.6

3,759 Comments

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  1. 3751
    Radguy
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 3:04 am | Permalink

    Julia has carried her party fairly well.

  2. 3752
    Steam driven Interweb
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 3:07 am | Permalink

    What happened at the queensland townhall meet? jules survived it unscathed?

    She wowed them :-)

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/18/2986841.htm

    Oh good, at least the meme “she didn’t lose” will be in the media tomorrow => best case scenario. If the rabid rabbott had won by 1 vote it would be plastered WALL-to-WALL all over the MSM:
    phew, jules is in :D

  3. 3753
    Radguy
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 3:10 am | Permalink

    vote loss to Greens by there cynical popularism & carping OFF Labor polisys to steal Labor primarys

    Ooh vicious Ron. You can turn a phrase.
    That’s the spirit!
    Yes I am a cynic.

  4. 3754
    Steam driven Interweb
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 3:11 am | Permalink

    notice how the insipid fairfax doesn’t even have that on it’s front page (jules winning) but rather has the bold headline “Abbott’s Debt Pledge” sickening!

  5. 3755
    Steam driven Interweb
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 3:22 am | Permalink

    Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt

    this constant mantra make me sick to the stomach

    If I had a company with turnover $1,000,000 a year, I earned $300,000 revenue, and then borrowed $40,000 to update my server/workstations? would any half decent (brain-dead) businessman (typical lib voter) say I was getting in over my head???? sheer madness.

  6. 3756
    Radguy
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 3:22 am | Permalink

    I don’t remember the last time I bought a paper. It’s not a young person thing to do.
    I click occasional links here. They usually put me off them even more.
    We should be careful though, strong competition and high quality journalism are important for balanced news reporting. 1% beats 0% good journalism any day.

  7. 3757
    Steam driven Interweb
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 3:26 am | Permalink

    sorry “front page” referred to their web front page

  8. 3758
    Paul_J
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 4:44 am | Permalink

    Looks a lot better for Jules now she has gotten the town hall out of the way. Did she perform better or was it a case of 2nd up wins?

    I’m no where as optimistic as you guys of a win and have had a bad feeling about it for 3 weeks now regardless of the polling due mainly to the biased MSM and the difficulty selling something that didn’t happen as an achievement. The bright spot for me though is the amount of young women who will vote for Julia. I’m still at nearly 100% labor yes with women under 30 in western Sydney. I ask them about their friends and they say most of them are voting for Julia as well. A woman told me last night she believed some conservative types will vote for her secretly purely based on gender.

    My rigid right wing mates wife will vote for Gillard much to his disgust and so will her friends and this is in Lindsay as are a lot of the women who I have spoken to. My assesment after spending a month probing and haranging people in the west here is there is dissapointment about Rudd but they are generally over it and ones who arn’t are going to vote for the greens as they dislike Abbott. My entire family are voting for the greens except for me, even the right voter and swinging voters are as well.

    PS: My wife has only just realised Abbott is a creep and that came about after she watched an add that quoted one of his misogynistic remarks.

  9. 3759
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 5:35 am | Permalink

    New thread.

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