Who should and will win the Emmys

The time for bemoaning the Emmy nominations is long over. The time is now to pick who will win and, more important from a critical standpoint, who should win. After the 62nd Annual Primetime Emmys air on Sunday (5 p.m., NBC), well, then we can all start the bemoaning again.

This year's Emmys will be hosted by NBC's Jimmy Fallon, giving him a platform to win over new fans (or reinforce the notion some have that he's not their kind of funny). The ceremony itself is arguably a little too network heavy and nostalgic, but with any luck all the worthy cable series that did get nominated will come out triumphant.

That said, the big winner on Sunday is likely to be ABC's great freshman sitcom "Modern Family." Ty Burrell, Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Eric Stonestreet are all deserving supporting actors, so here's hoping for a first-ever three-way tie. Julie Bowen and Sofia Vergara will also vie with each other as supporting actresses. Winning for comedy series is a lock.

Unless the Emmys is the Emmys. Meaning, you never know.

Here's a list of potential winners in the major categories:

Outstanding drama series: "Breaking Bad," "Mad Men" (AMC), "Lost" (ABC), "The Good Wife" (CBS), "Dexter," (Showtime) and "True Blood" (HBO). "The Good Wife" and "True Blood" are fine shows, but not Emmy shows. "Lost" is dangerous because it bowed out with much fanfare. And "Dexter" had a great season. But this is a battle between the two best shows on television. Should win: "Breaking Bad." Will win: Mad Men." Both are deserving - apples and oranges of brilliance. "Mad Men" has won it two years in a row and is likely to make it a trifecta. And yet there's a crazy genius to "Breaking Bad" (which should have won it for Season 2).

Outstanding comedy series: "The Office," "30 Rock" (NBC), "Glee" (Fox), "Modern Family" (ABC), "Curb Your Enthusiasm" (HBO) and "Nurse Jackie" (Showtime). There are precisely three funny comedies here - "Nurse Jackie" is not one of them, "The Office" used to be one of them and "Glee" is a hybrid that is mostly a musical. Should win: "Modern Family." Will win: "Modern Family." Consistently funny, clever and endearing, this rookie will upset the "30 Rock" string of victories.

Lead actor in a drama series: Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"; Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"; Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"; Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"; Hugh Laurie, "House"; and Matthew Fox, "Lost." Now that's a good lineup. Should win: Hamm. Will win: Hamm. Cranston deservedly won it two years in a row and if he pulls off the three-peat he would definitely be worthy. But it's time Hamm's understated performance of a man's existential crisis got acknowledged.

Outstanding lead actress in a drama series: Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit"; Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"; Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights"; Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"; Glenn Close, "Damages"; and January Jones, "Mad Men." That Katey Sagal from FX's "Sons of Anarchy" wasn't nominated here is beyond a snub - it's shameful. End of discussion. Should win: Britton. Will win: Margulies. The "Friday Night Lights" duo of Chandler and Britton deserved better for years. Maybe this year Britton, at least, can get some justice.

Lead actor in a comedy series: Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"; Steve Carell, "The Office"; Jim Parsons, "Big Bang Theory"; Matthew Morrison, "Glee"; Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"; and Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm." There's worry that "Monk" leaving the air will set off the sentimental vote. And "The Office" had a very down year. Plus - Morrison is wonderful, but not funny. The complex joke structure that Parsons must deliver could make a solid challenge. Should win: Baldwin. Will win: Baldwin. Tina Fey is brilliant, but there's no "30 Rock" without Baldwin. The wins keep coming.

Lead actress in a comedy series: Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"; Tina Fey, "30 Rock"; Lea Michele, "Glee"; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine"; Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"; and Toni Collette, "United States of Tara." The latter two are sensational actresses, but their shows are not comedies. Poehler had a great season on an underrated show. Should win: Fey. Will win: Fey. The multitude of laugh-out-loud moments seal it, and her streak continues.

For more discussion on Emmy nominees, including supporting actors and other categories, check out Tim Goodman's Bastard Machine fan page on Facebook, or follow him at www.twitter.com/bastardmachine. You can e-mail him at tgoodman@sfchronicle.com.

This article appeared on page F - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle