Close calls and near-death experiences

Updated September 6, 2010 11:30:00

There is no reason to think, as the final reckoning is made in the 2010 poll, that it will be Gillard v Abbott at the next general election. (Reuters)

Julia Gillard looks to have held off the assault of the Tony Abbot-led Coalition. But as she looks around the battle scarred remains of Fort Labor and counts the dead - 16 members lost - she can reflect on how the electoral dominance of 2009 is now a smoking ruin.

The price of survival has been high, a leader despatched, policies jettisoned, loudly declared principles dumped. Voters shearing off in their hundreds of thousands.

Labor's Mr "70 per cent" of the first two years was reduced in the final year to Ms "38 per cent".

Now Julia Galliard has to gather together the survivors of August 21. The bare 72 survivors, plus the fellow travellers she hopes will allow her to limp through to another electoral encounter no sooner than three years hence.

But the election battle we've just witnessed will pale against the blood letting we are about to see in Labor ranks, or so some political observers believe.

Certainly there are plenty of reasons for Labor to tear itself apart: resentment over abandoned policies, ideological warriors furious at being over-ruled by focus-group driven pragmatists.

Personal animosities have been exacerbated by the sudden dumping of Rudd and then by the leak and counter leak which threatened to swamp Labor's campaign.

The Rudd model - and the Liberal leadership coups before that - have established that no political leader is more than four bad Newspolls from removal.

From every angle Labor now looks like fertile ground for in-fighting on a thermo-nuclear scale.

But in the balance against that is the fragility of Labor's hold on government. A single by-election could threaten Labor's second term. There is no room for settling of scores. The Rudd malcontents and the anti-Rudd forces will have to live together or die together politically.

Self preservation or revenge, it's a difficult call.

Discipline is generally easier to maintain in a government on the edge of the precipice than one with a majority large enough to allow members to squabble over the spoils of office.

The near-death experience may be enough to inspire if not mutual trust and support in Labor ranks, at least a deferral of any active campaign of seeking revenge.

In fact it could be the Coalition which has more trouble adjusting to the new, delicately balanced political order.

"So close, but not quite," is the maddening thought that will occupy Liberal-National Party minds as they head back to the wrong side of the parliamentary chamber.

Rancour is the default setting in politics and it breeds much more vigorously in opposition than in government.

Tony Abbott has been a hero to many, his standing increasing through the months of his leadership. His campaign was strong if ultimately unsuccessful.

But that lack of success is the lasting legacy of his efforts - and criticism has been becoming more audible through the days of the post-election negotiations as the prospects of power faded.

His skills at the negotiating table, his grasp of policy and particularly of economic issues has come under critical scrutiny.

The clearest lesson of the last three years in Australian politics is that nobody knows what's coming. Kevin Rudd, in the weeks since his abrupt dismissal, has reportedly been asking various other MP's if they knew what was happening - or was he the only one in the dark.

Nobody foresaw the course of events over the past three years in either the Coalition or Labor ranks. And there is no reason to think, as the final reckoning is made in the 2010 poll, that it will be Gillard v Abbott at the next general election... whenever that is.

Marius Benson can be heard covering federal politics on ABC NewsRadio's breakfast program each week day morning.

Tags: government-and-politics, elections, federal-government, political-parties, labor-party, liberal-party, federal-elections, australia

First posted September 6, 2010 11:17:00

Comments (79)

Comments for this story are closed, but you can still have your say.

Negotiating skills:

06 Sep 2010 11:56:27am

"His (Tony Abbott's) skills at the negotiating table, his grasp of policy and particularly of economic issues has come under critical scrutiny."

A nice touch to the negotiations currently underway between the Green-Labor Coalition with the 'Not a Bloc' bloc of 'Independents' is alll the secret, backroom maneuvering and bargaining.

Julia Gillardtine's good at that, so I guess that gives her the edge over Tony.

Of course, any fool 'Independent' that lines up with Julia had better keep his back covered, because the very moment AFTER they've signed on the dotted line with the Government, they'll be relegated to the sidelines quicker than Bob Brown can stitch up a preference deal.

Cee Pee

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- g:
  
  06 Sep 2010 12:20:05pm
  
  erm.. are you implying that any fool independent who sides with the coalition WON'T be relegated to slidelines?
  
  You've just stated the inevitable, bleeding obvious. It takes no great insight.
  
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  - James B:
    
    06 Sep 2010 1:43:43pm
    
    Agree, this is classic "the sky is falling" scaremongering that you get from Abbott and his Coalition hoodlums.
    
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    - bob:
      
      06 Sep 2010 2:02:59pm
      
      "more scaremongering", yeah Labor wouldn't do that would they, certainly not, so who said that "work choices will be in by Monday" it must have been the wind.
      
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  - golfman:
    
    06 Sep 2010 2:30:07pm
    
    Given the indeps are rural based - like most of the national party - you would hardly think they'd be sidelined by a lib/nat coalition. Their policies would not be that different to the rural aligned national party - if anything it would give the lib/nat coalition an increased move towards making life better in the bush.
    
    Aligning with the labor/green coalition on the other hand would mandate the sidelining of the rural independants to allow for labor's ideology, the exact opposite of conservative rural ideologies.
    
    Unless, of course, labor no longer has an idealogy.
    
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- Arrow:
  
  06 Sep 2010 12:24:32pm
  
  I think a neutral observer would agree that Abbott's style is more "crash or crash through" whereas Gillard comes across as more "consultative".
  
  No matter which party you prefer, you have to wonder whether Abbott was the right man to try to win over the independents.
  
  Many of the Libs who supported Turnbull will be wondering the same.
  
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  - Peter Burrows:
    
    06 Sep 2010 1:17:27pm
    
    Julia more consultative you have got to be joking.
    
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    - socrates:
      
      06 Sep 2010 1:31:29pm
      
      Many of the Libs who supported Turnbull will be gleefully counting the 16 scalps Abbott helped deliver to the Coalition from a position where they were virtually unelectable.
      
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    - Lewis of The Hills:
      
      06 Sep 2010 2:31:38pm
      
      Don't forget to add the demise of a 1st term sitting prime minister PLUS the crippling of another to that tally.
      
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  - Mal Content:
    
    06 Sep 2010 2:43:16pm
    
    Are you dillusional? I think the Liberal supporters have made it abundantly clear that they like Tony as their leader. You can say what you like but TA is a moral leader who doesn't stoop to the low playing field of the Labor Party. I would much prefer someone who stands by their convictions compared to poll-driven anarchy.
    
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  - Gang of Four:
    
    06 Sep 2010 2:50:48pm
    
    "...Gillard comes across as more "consultative"...."
    
    Er, wasn't she part of Rudd's 'gang of four'?
    
    I thought the whole problem with them was they didn't consult with anyone much.
    
    True, she'll 'consult' with Bob Brown now that he's part of the Green Labor coalition.
    
    But not Labor backbenchers.
    
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- DaveMcRae:
  
  06 Sep 2010 12:28:23pm
  
  Actually, that can't be done - Any moment the Gillard govt reneges, or is felt to renege, on promises or procedure the independents will cross the floor - 1 or 2 on a no-cofidence motion and it's all over.
  
  This is how John Curtin's ALP came to power in 41. Read your history. Indepenents, 2 of, supported Menzies minority government - more than a year later and they were not delivering - gone.
  
  I know there are Liberal concern trolls who cried a river of tears over Rudd's dispatch even though they hate Labor. One can't imagine how many nutter heads will explode if independents cross the floor on a no-confidence motion and installs the other party.
  
  Anyway, I do think that Gillard has played this much more professionally. I think the big call is her promise to consult the independents weekly during sitting times. Brack's did this and he claims it made his government better - I think it will he as well.
  
  Abbott instead, is still campaigning via the coalition's media backers utilising, inter alia, tactics of fear that works for the stupid. Great for voters, I don't think it'll cut it with the independents. Won't stop them playing it out for the best deal, and good on them.
  
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  - jusme:
    
    06 Sep 2010 2:11:15pm
    
    assuming labor wins, i agree with your scenario dave.
    
    as for bloodletting, i think the labor party will go into a 3 month internal honeymoon period of sheer relief. lots of hugs, love and self congratulation.
    
    liberals and nationals will come to blows. nats blaming libs for losing via budget holes, jealous of the indi's new influence and popularity... libs blaming nats for pushing the indi's away and basically being nothing but bench warmers. turnbull quietly smug in the corner with a knowing smile.
    
    it's cruel to say, but it'll be the best entertainment since the colloseum back in 100 b.c.
    
    it's all good though. we learn by our mistakes.
    
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  - Amused Qld:
    
    06 Sep 2010 2:48:24pm
    
    You say Gillard has been the most professional in the negotiations.
    Bending over backwards, doing and saying whatever it takes, signing whatever they want without issue is NOT professional. Desperate is the word that comes to mind. Gillard is prosituting herself in a desperate manic attempt to be elected. As Glenn Milne says- so as not to be a dot in history.
    She is so needy she will do and say anything. Australia needs someone with a spine to run this country, not weak and lilly livered just to have their name in lights.
    
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- bj:
  
  06 Sep 2010 12:42:01pm
  
  Agree. Gillard can't be trusted (ask Kevin Rudd). She's a weathervane and will go whichever way the Greens and the left of her own party tell her. The Independents will be no more than ornaments in her government.
  
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  - Peter:
    
    06 Sep 2010 1:13:31pm
    
    You don't really understand how this works do you?
    
    The independents guarantee supply and confidence. So we get a budget and a government. Everything else has to be negotiated through.
    
    Now we know that the opposition will say no to everything. This means any legislation will need the support of indies and greens. They can afford to lose 1 or 2 if they get all of them, so perhaps the most bizarre of Katters demands will be left behind. But they can negotiate from a position of strength on each and every bill.
    
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    - bj:
      
      06 Sep 2010 2:20:03pm
      
      You don't really understand Julia Gillard or Labor Party culture do you?
      
      Breaking promises and finding excuses for doing so is stock in trade for the ALP and its leaders.
      
      The Independents will be bullied and outmanouvered by Gillard at every term.
      
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    - Tomboy:
      
      06 Sep 2010 2:40:47pm
      
      @ bj - how do you know that? What will Gillard do to bully and outmanoeuvre the independents? Your mind-reading skills are incredible!
      
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  - yogie:
    
    06 Sep 2010 1:27:43pm
    
    As opposed to abbott who can be trusted and who is not a weathervane on anything except policy.
    His consistency comes from him adopting a karma-sutra of positions of importance such as climate change and paid maternity.
    But you can trust him, he will change his mind as often as it suits him and you can trust that that will remain consistent.
    
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  - Two-f-Jeff:
    
    06 Sep 2010 1:37:37pm
    
    Well Kevin seems to be trusting Julia right now and backing her.
    
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    - bob:
      
      06 Sep 2010 2:08:13pm
      
      Only because he still thinks he has a shot a becoming PM again. Trust me he is pissed with Julia.
      
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- the yank:
  
  06 Sep 2010 1:02:41pm
  
  I think it is Abbott that better watch his back.
  For 11 and a half years the Nats have gotten crumbs off the Liberal table.
  Now they see three ex-Nats making real changes and they might well be asking why have we let ourselves be taken advantage of for so long.
  What would happen if the Nats just said bugger you to the Libs and just started talking to Labor to see what they might gain?
  It must hurt like hell to be so close to power and see it slip away.
  
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  - jenbrad:
    
    06 Sep 2010 2:05:18pm
    
    I've been wondering the same thing. Could the nats see more commonality with some of the greens' views and the policies of labor than liberals? Long gone are the days where Australia rides on the sheep's back and since the rural voters have had real power. Maybe watching the independents may encourage them to see where their own power could be increased ...
    
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    - Amused Qld:
      
      06 Sep 2010 2:50:48pm
      
      Where do you come from?? No way in the world would the Nationals ever, ever align themselves with the Greens.
      
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  - jusme:
    
    06 Sep 2010 2:21:26pm
    
    i agree yank.
    but the nats being the opportunists they are won't move 'til they see how the indi's pan out over the next 6 months or more.
    if the indi's are successful, nats'll follow suit and leave the coalition, as a group or singly, not sure.
    if the new gov fizzles, i reckon the nats will stay in their comfy coalition box.
    maybe crook will be the barometer.
    hell maybe some labor members will go independant. rudd? garrett?
    
    all guesses and assuming lab wins.
    
    if we end up with a lot more indi's, next election we may need a 2 week decision rule or something as someone else suggested.
    
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- Sean:
  
  06 Sep 2010 2:43:19pm
  
  I think Tony Abbott did a great job I mean look how many seats he cost Labor. He did a great campaign. I think Labors infighting was it's own downfall.
  
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befuddled:

06 Sep 2010 12:01:49pm

don't forget the rudd factor, if he doesn't get what he wants - watch out labor

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- Johnno:
  
  06 Sep 2010 12:15:46pm
  
  If Labor gets back into government, he'll get what he wants. Gets him out of the country more if nothing else.
  
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jim:

06 Sep 2010 12:09:55pm

Such Hyperbole. Couldn't even focus on what the underlying topic was so full of idiotic hysterical phrases like "blood letting", "tear itself apart", "on a thermo necular scale".

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- salo:
  
  06 Sep 2010 1:17:47pm
  
  You didn't miss much. The piece is long on conjecture and third-hand reporting and short on factual basis. The underlying assumption that Gillard will continue as PM may yet turn out to be false.
  
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rfnk:

06 Sep 2010 12:11:39pm

I think I just read an article by someone that says the independents will go with Labor and that after this dies down there'll be a whole lot of political manouvering going on because it was a close election so neither of the leaders can guarantee the support of their parties, so they'd better look out. Right? Gee thanks! Who'd have thought that might happen?

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custard:

06 Sep 2010 12:12:23pm

" Nobody foresaw the course of events over the past three years "

Voters in WA must have had some sense as to what they saw coming flatly rejecting Labor on both 2007 and 2010. Voters in the rust bucket states just got conned by Rudd/Gillard .

Labor deserve to thrown out given the whole knifing affair and their cynical attempt to hold on to power and instructed by the unions "whatever it takes".

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- Spinning Topsy:
  
  06 Sep 2010 2:47:32pm
  
  Don't know about "flatly rejecting Labor". Barnett leads a minority government - 25 ALp 23 Lib, 4 Ind 4 NAt or there abouts.
  
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Ron E Joggles:

06 Sep 2010 12:14:27pm

So, Marius, clearly you believe that Labor will command a majority in parliament - I hope you're right, but do you know something we don't?
And what about all those commentators who repeatedly insisted that the rural independents would ultimately back the Coalition? Could it be that the urban/suburban commentariat are utterly out of touch with (and ignorant of) regional and remote Australia?
As for retribution, I'm one Labor person who has never trusted the right-faction machine men - may the hair on their arses turn into fishhooks.

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Johnno:

06 Sep 2010 12:14:39pm

it will be interesting to see how much Labor bloodletting will be from losers, the irrelevant and others outside the parliamentary party and how much from those who were re-elected.

It seems that any comment from anybody (including nobodies like Mark Latham) are breathlessly reported by journalists who find policy too intellectually challenging to understand, let alone report.

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- jenbrad:
  
  06 Sep 2010 2:07:28pm
  
  I like that - maybe it's the twitter effect - words from someone's mouths are always worth more than reading and analysis.
  
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Daniel:

06 Sep 2010 12:20:09pm

It it long past time the Labour Left realised that they have no influence at all while they remain tied to the powerful Labour Right. The Nationals have it good with their relationship to the Liberals compared to how Labour handles its own factions.
Even the Greens are getting more concessions out of the ALP than its on Left faction manages.

In fighting and a split is the only thing which will save the Labour party in the long or mid term. Unless they want to keep watching the Greens and minor progressives take their place.

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Trump:

06 Sep 2010 12:22:35pm

She's not throught YET but if she does it will be ok as long as she Governs as she has the past few weeks and does NOTHING, that way no more damage can be done.

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Spin Baby, Spin:

06 Sep 2010 12:23:38pm

I actually think the Coalition can smell Labor's blood and will be after it if Labor form Government - another 6 months of Abbott attack and there is a good chance he could kill off Gillard as well and further destabilise the Government. He has destabilised it dramatically in the last 9 months, if he keeps going there is no telling where it will be at in another 6 months. I don't think the Lib Coalition will destabilise in opposition. On the contrary, they will be single-minded in their determination to further destabilise the Govt this term - attacking the Independents and the Green Labor alliance.

If however Abbott gets the nod from the Independents, I get the feeling they, including the Indies, will be pulled into a tight knit coalition government with a reform agenda for the bush, the like of which we have not seen before. The Agenda will be set and will flow through into big policies for the following term. While this is happening, the Labor Party will be self-destructing and it is quite possible several by-elections from Labor ranks will occur, strengthening Coalition numbers this term. If there were 3 seats the Coalition won in by-elections, I believe the Indies would still be kept "in the tent" as the Libs are big into loyalty - they kept the Nationals in coalition when they didn't need to - they didn't execute Howard like Labor did Rudd either.

The talk of a hung parliament is possibly the Indies thinking there may be one of their number that wants to go Labor and their determination to change that person's mind.

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- Kit:
  
  06 Sep 2010 12:59:53pm
  
  Well Spin Baby,
  You demonstrate how the opposition are focused on one thing, not the good of the country, not policy, just tearing their opposition apart. Is that really who we want running the country?
  
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  - socrates:
    
    06 Sep 2010 1:38:33pm
    
    Well Kit you have demonstrated how Labor is focused on just one thing - power at any cost. The head of a previous leader tops the list followed by a desperate rush to the polls before the momentum got too strong for the Coalition and a shambolic campaign where we saw at least two Gillards as Labor poll danced its way into campaign chaos. And the irony is they will probably be the next Government despite this appalling CV. And is that who you want running the country? Careful what you wish for. Personally I don't wish for either - but lets hope for the lessor of two incompetents.
    
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- cbez:
  
  06 Sep 2010 1:26:29pm
  
  I think the opposite will occur. I think that the elctorate will tire of Tony's aggressiveness and combativeness, and will start to switch of from him.
  
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- Glen:
  
  06 Sep 2010 1:35:07pm
  
  Abbott and the Coalition have been atrocious - as you point out, they have worked hard to destabilise the government. This is not what you want from a party seeking power, you want them to be offering a better alternative.
  
  Abbott was the worst choice for the Coalition, because rather than raising the Coalition up to the point that people wanted them in power, they tore Labor down to their own level. What does this mean? It means that many people chose to look elsewhere in voting, and this is why the Greens saw such a strong boost in votes. Abbott didn't provide a strong alternative, he provided a "Labor is worse than we are" campaign, with just about every major policy from the Liberals being either "me too" (like the parental leave policy) or negative ("Stop the boats, end the waste", block the NBN).
  
  Mind you, Gillard didn't do much better - rather than establish themselves as the positive party, the one working to better the nation, she let the party be pulled down to Abbott's level, fighting in the trenches rather than winning the hearts and minds of the electorate. The only positive about Gillard, the main reason I'd prefer Labor form government, is that her deputy, Wayne Swan, is clearly a very competent Treasurer. Indeed, if Labor had been smart, Swan would have been made PM, with Gillard kept as Deputy. Swan and Rudd are very similar types, the calm, competent leader. Gillard is the fighter, the one that goes on the attack. The fighter is much more effective as deputy.
  
  All of this is why, had Turnbull remained leader, I could have honestly seen myself voting Liberal at this election (vs Labor under Gillard), because Turnbull, for all his shortcomings, tried to raise the Coalition up, not pull Labor down.
  
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- RJP:
  
  06 Sep 2010 2:18:21pm
  
  I am astounded that you think an Abbott lead government will bring in reform. Tony who thinks an oppositions job is just to oppose. So what will we get from an Abbott government - the dodgy brothers NBN, a stop to school building, a budget black hole, a boatphone!!, a return to divisive politics, playing the race card at every opportunity and no real progress on anything. Oh and I forgot to mention the poor man's health reform agenda as well. Well if they choose Abbott I'm off to buy a cardigan because here we go back to 1953. Why oh why did the Libs dump Malcolm - i may have voted for them with him as leader.
  
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mbc:

06 Sep 2010 12:25:19pm

Abbott has so far demonstrated that he cannot negotiate with three people who think the same way that he does, three people from the same side of the tracks, three people with same ethnicity. What's going to happen should Abbott be let loose on the world?

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Sharon:

06 Sep 2010 12:26:05pm

The delays of the three independents in making a decision tells me that they're struggling with the obvious choice of supporting Gillard, and the reason for their torment is that when push comes to shove, they're conservative politicians who have traditionally followed the "conservative" parties.

Gillard is the obvious choice for key reasons: firstly, her books balance (it's the economy stupid), secondly, she's better placed to work with the real winners of the election (the Greens) and thirdly, she has an NBN policy to take Australia (and particularly the regions) into the 21st century.

So this leaves the underlying issue of "conservatism" and in that respect, these days there's less and less separating the two parties. Rudd was rightly observed as "Howard lite" in many areas, from social values through to his views on market-based economics. Julia Gillard is no different.

The Coalition, in my view, are not ready and do not deserve to govern. The hard right of the Liberal party cannot reconcile with the moderate view of its members and they are yet to find a balance between the two. The "born to rule" mentality needs to be replaced with a pragmatism that has yet to emerge.

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- golfman:
  
  06 Sep 2010 2:45:36pm
  
  "Gillard is the obvious choice for key reasons: firstly, her books balance (it's the economy stupid)"
  
  Just letting you know, 'election costings' are not 'the books' - they are wishful suggestions.
  
  Also, just to let you know, Labor's last 'balancing of the real books' was in 1989 - 21 years ago.
  
  Election costings are Julia's 'financial suggestions'. Labor's costings are nothing more than pre election 'feel good'. I'm sure their 2007 costings (delivered 24 hours before the election - hypocrisy perhaps?) balanced as well but yet now we're borrowing $100million/day even though Swannee has apparently 'fixed' our economy and saved us from the GFC. Interesting interpretation of the word 'fix'.
  
  What's more important than fanciful election costings is track record in government and on that basis the independents have a very easy comparison to make.
  
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themunz:

06 Sep 2010 12:27:03pm

After all the post election revelations of "honest Tony" deceptions, some blood letting seems in order.

It has been suggested, that had electors been aware of the truth, the election result would have reelected Labor.

The ABC and the rest of the media failed in their duty to uncover the truth.

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fred:

06 Sep 2010 12:28:53pm

huh? wha? did labor get back in? when did this happen? must've missed something...

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Spinner:

06 Sep 2010 12:37:20pm

A very interesting account Marius. But unfortunately, it probably does not reflect reality.

In the summer of 2010, under the leadership of the Dudd, Labor's electoral stocks had fallen to such depths that the possibility of winning about half of the votes in a federal election seemed about as likely as a snowflakes chance in hell.

Come the election, with a new leader, and surprise, surprise, not only was there a remarkable recovery from those earlier depths, but the party did score more votes than any other party in the election.

Is this just good luck, or should we perhaps realise that this has been nothing less than an amazing recovery.

This is just an insight into the strengths I believe we will see from the Labor government in this next term.

Gone are the days of one-man-band-ship as was the case under the Dudd, and here come the days of skilful consultation and negotiation which should have been the case under that earlier leader. Of course, maybe it wasn't possible under that earlier leader simply because he did not have the skills to pull it off. But the current leader, the Prime Minister certainly does have those skills, and will doubtless be demonstrating them with aplomb in the future.

Watch for a very satisfying period of politics in the nation's history, which having been conducted with such success as I am convinced it will be over the next three years, will see a return to majority government, albeit in "coalition" with a much less maligned Greens party, at the next federal general election.

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Chase:

06 Sep 2010 12:38:38pm

You write as if the (good) outcome had already happened.

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Paradise:

06 Sep 2010 12:40:38pm

Just a year ago, it was Rudd v Turnbull. The standard of debate had been high; gentlemanly, probing, fairly positive, forward-looking on climate change, water policy, education, tax reform. etc. Then behind the scenes, so it is thought, Murdochery moved into gear. No tax talk, no Henry rubbish, cuddle the miners in their new profitabilities, abandon climate change as crap, find a new leader to front the re-swelling conservative priapus and take on the fight, for the more slugging it out, the more irritation, the more Australia turns to confused conservatism. It's now normal to ask what's happening. That's what conservatis relies on, fundamental ignorance of the depth and details of what is needed. After all, it 'll cost money, this health, education, tax, climate dreaming. The rich can't afford it. Murdochery can rally all the forces necessary to thwart change. Even the mining peasants, fly-out-fly-in mortgage holders, are so glad to get first lick of the crumbs from the multi-national mining table, they joined in the TV ads to say "hands off our big nice friends and their flogging of our irreplaceable resources. I'm getting my bit and I need it." The swinging voter has swung, leaving Australia nearly swinging at the end of a conservative rope. Three cheers for the bottom line! Behind Abbott and Gillard are soured memories, fossils; not as much future.

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- Brian:
  
  06 Sep 2010 1:44:53pm
  
  Couldn't agree more, it was a carefully orchestrated campaign of Murdochery that got us into this mess and if he doesn't get his way, an Abbott Government, the campaign of hate will continue and get worse.
  
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  - arf:
    
    06 Sep 2010 2:13:40pm
    
    The 'machinations' were going on at a higher level than lil' ole' Oz.
    Remember, the ETS debacle arose from the Copenhagen non-agreement which, in turn, was more than a little affected by the FUD of the Climategate 'revelations'.
    The scam lies with whoever organised the hack.
    
    Murdoch? Well, perhaps. You only have to check the Newscorp opinion pieces to know what the party line there is! You might also want to go and check out who owns Murdoch...
    
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  - cicero:
    
    06 Sep 2010 2:30:53pm
    
    How right you both are. I fear the Coalition hate agenda that drove much of the campaign is being flogged all the way to the finish line. So now Labor and the Greens will 'destroy the social fabric'. All a bit 19th Century isn't it? Reminds me of the arguments used to prevent women from getting the vote...they'll scare the horses. And so it goes on. The Pellian manifesto, given a second life by right wing media, labels the Greens ungodly. Is it the Green's tolerance and compassion for those in need the Cardinal doesn't like, or the plan to make dental care accessible for all. How very evil of them! On the other side, perhaps a sumptuously furnished parochial study in which the good Cardinal scribbles his dark thoughts under the influence of a nice amontillado, courtesy of his parishioners; or perhaps the Tobacco industry. Finger nails just a little too long. Mr Abbott only a phone call away. Bring on part two.
    
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MACK1:

06 Sep 2010 12:43:15pm

The only thing we can confidently predict is a repeat of the NSW experience federally, now that the faceless men from the NSW Right have infected the national ALP. The question is, how long will the voters put up with the the continuing stagnation and incompetence, before they vote for the Coalition to get in and fix the mess?

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Inaction:

06 Sep 2010 12:44:02pm

At least Labor was bold enough to take action against its own hero when he was found wanting. You cannot promise and then not deliver. Liberals could not even let their alking dead PM go -- he pleaded his deputy to challenge so that he can go but deputy knew that the boss is surrounded by the sycophants.

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Andrew:

06 Sep 2010 12:46:16pm

Finally a piece reporting what is really going on rather then the pro-ALP/Greens bias that the ABC has flooded the nation with in the past week or two (eg the 'qanda' line up last week or the series of biased online polls used to summon the case for the left). For the independents to side with the ALP/Greens would not only disappoint their electorates but fail to read the will of the Australian people as recorded at the polls on July 24th.

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Shoe is on the other foot:

06 Sep 2010 12:53:01pm

I'd suggest that if the Coalition misses out, there is likey to be quite a bit of bloodletting going on at Coalition HQ.

You'd have to think that Robb & Hockey would be watching their backs given the costing fiasco (whether or not you think it's actually a 'differnece of opinion'). Then you have the election night 'punch-up' bewtween Truss/Joyce and Katter/Windsor. Then the not so subtle arm twisting of Bill 'The Devil' Heffernen and all the other phone calls in the middle of the night.

Talk about not putting a foot wrong in the lead-up to the election only to be a complete ballsup afterwards. Contrast this to the rabble which was Labor before the election and the solid, unified (at least on face value) party it's been since the election.

Facinating stuff.

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- jenbrad:
  
  06 Sep 2010 2:14:23pm
  
  No, I don't reckon so. I think Abbott and co will be slapping themselves on the back for a long time - after all, they got rid of Labor's majority, putting it in a situation where the coalition might form a majority government next time round. They're in a better state to do so from opposition of a minority government - they can stand back and shriek about how muc better they would have done things, they can oppose just about everything and make it all very difficult.
  
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Brian :

06 Sep 2010 12:56:38pm

The independents want to go with Abbott but they have met with him, tried to negotiate with him and seen first hand what a self interested bully boy he is. If the independents go with Gillard its because they know the truth about Abbott something which was keep from most Australians because the press didnt have the motivation or the balls to ask him any difficult questions.

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DRJB:

06 Sep 2010 12:58:39pm

Why do when spend so much time looking at our collective navels?

We need to raise our vision and look towards the future.

What is our vision for our future as Australian and global citizens?

What role do our elected representatives have in working with us to identify and achieve a sustainable future for us and our great, great, great grandchildren?

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Kit:

06 Sep 2010 1:02:42pm

It's interesting to note how all the coalition supporters have flocked to this one. The title suggested they were going to enjoy the blood letting, the article itself proposes different things perhaps.
Shows how you mustn't be sucked in by the headlines, he he :-)

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Maxi:

06 Sep 2010 1:10:59pm

Let the blood letting begins please, can't wait!

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wistow:

06 Sep 2010 1:21:04pm

A by-product of democracy is factionalism, so readily exposed pre and post election. Perhaps more people will be tuned into the wheeling and dealings of our elected pollies and on the horizons looms another check point and once again we will tick the box (s). Not only has this election been interesting (the players, etc.) and with the current formation of our new agenda by our three amigos, it will be the next election that will be the topping of the ice-cream, with or without Julia or Tony.

wistow

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Trump:

06 Sep 2010 1:22:21pm

It doesn't really matter any more this is a draw pretty much and the one who takes power will only do it by sleight of hand with the slimmest of margin, no mandate and in a caretaker position until the next election whenever that may be.

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Horrebow:

06 Sep 2010 1:26:28pm

The best thing to emerge from this result is a stern reminder that Politicians (read Public Servants) are there to serve US, not THEMSELVES and that the Australian electorate listens and watches.
The judgement served on the Labor party machine and upon the PM pretender has been measured and just.
Who gives a damn what the blood-hungry, power-drunk apparatchiks do next within the dungeons of this riven party?

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JM:

06 Sep 2010 1:29:57pm

"Tony Abbott has been a hero to many, his standing increasing through the months of his leadership."

You think so. Exactly to whom is Abbott a hero? Except maybe in his mind and yours.

" His campaign was strong if ultimately unsuccessful."

If you think "Stop the Boats" and "Great Big New [insert name of scary revenue measure or spending which Coalies don't like] is a strong campaign then the second part of your statement answers the first. Informed voters cringed at the Opposition Leader's feverish efforts at channelling an escaped lunatic and hoped that our primeval bandwidth was so bad that people overseas would not know what was happening.

As for your hopes of blood-letting over Labor's way, forget it. Those who should be removed will be, quietly. And you don't know the real story behind Rudd's departure so don't pretend by innuendo that you do. I think you would find it has little or nothing to do with the campaign failings of factional movers and shakers.

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- custard:
  
  06 Sep 2010 2:32:33pm
  
  "Informed voters cringed at .............."
  
  I felt I was very informed but I didn't get conned into backing the $43 billion white elephant.
  
  So what is the real story behind Kevin Rudd? I am sure there are many on these pages waiting to hear...............
  
  "Those who should be removed will be, quietly."
  
  The blood letting in Labor will be very public indeed, I for one can't wait.
  
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mooney:

06 Sep 2010 1:32:27pm

Kevin 11 sounds good to me. He'd win against the Monk hands down.

Julia is an absolute loser with bad judgement to boot. Back to the back bench for her.

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Mr Samuel DiGiovanni:

06 Sep 2010 1:42:40pm

Marius read the result the fact remains that queensland and parts of N.S.W went aginst labor the reason is pure and simple it was the rednecks in those states thast voted for abbott with the proparganda i wiil stop the boats the facts remains that victoria south australia and tasmania labor had historic high votes since fedeartion and libs had the worst results in those smae states so before you start jumping up and down that labor will tear itslef apart you should wait as i belive the party are professional enough to read the results

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NoNo:

06 Sep 2010 1:46:30pm

I agree with Marius. Gillard has done a superior job of negotiating and keeping the rest of her party 'shut up' than Abbott, with his unleashed warriors buggering up nearly every negotiation with insults and threats.

Gillard deserves to govern as she has shown herself to be a better brinkman than Abbott and that is what will be needed over the period until the next election.

My hope is that this Labour government gets back in and totally destroys itself in trying to pander to the Greens ultra left requirements and the 3 independents wishes of bettering the bush. I don't count the Hobart carpet salesman as independent regardless of what was on his ticket.

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Dave:

06 Sep 2010 1:56:58pm

No matter which party Katter, Windsor and Oakshott select, they will never support the mining tax. So what then happens when this gets voted down????

I also cant seem them legislating an increase to 33% in company taxes, seeing as Labor has promised to reduce the tax rate and this increase is a Greens priority.

This is going to be hilarious that's for sure

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Malcolm:

06 Sep 2010 2:05:13pm

One can only hope that your prediction of a Gillard Labor/Green/Independent government is the right call. However while I think there will be tension in the ALP I suspect that there will be some blood-letting in the Conservatives - especially after the cost estimate gaffe.

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TrevorN:

06 Sep 2010 2:10:10pm

Well, blood does need to flow on the Labor side and it would come as no shock if the knives start flashing soon, especially in NSW, no matter if they win or lose the election. It's even possble that some of the facelss men might get it in the neck this time.

And you can bet that the silent men that run the Liberals will be re-assessing the benifits of having Abbott there long term (win or lose) too. I reckon that Chris Pyne has been trying on the emperor's toga out in the back room just to see if it fits...

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Dazza:

06 Sep 2010 2:19:12pm

Oh, come on!! Why is nearly everyone on this forum trying to foresee what way the independants will go and who'll backstab who. Just shut-up and wait and see when the decision is made and then we'll see if the party which form's government will go great or stuff it up. Who cares at the moment?? Get real!!!

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Robert:

06 Sep 2010 2:35:16pm

Due credit was given to Abbott during the election campaign for managing to hold the line. I for one expected him to crack. But armed with a few slogans set on autowind and the dutiful support of the Murdochcracy, he managed to slip his way through virtually unscatherd. Black hole, what black hole? That labor lot, look what they have done to the economy! Stimulous, yes we supported the stimulous, the first one, not the second one mind. We got it exactly right!

But just when you thought it was all too good to be true along comes a hung parliament and wham, Tony reveals his true inner self. Sometimes flustered, always condescending, occassionally threatening, the bloke looks totally out of his depth. You can almost feel a tanty coming on when the independants side with labor.

Now of course there will be introspection within the labor party. Marius is right to point out that discipline is much easier to maintain for a government on the edge. Small mercies really.

But no even the most ardent liberal supporter would expect Abbott to be able to maintain the same discipline in opposition that he did during a 4 week election campaign. The last 2 weeks is surely evidence enough!

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Darryl:

06 Sep 2010 2:36:07pm

Blood Letting !! That's after a "normal" election...this now is anything but.

Labor has been disciplined under Gillard post election. Showing dignity and respect for the inquiries from the Independant's, she has maintained remarkable fortitude and skill.

And what do we get from Abbott and co? The usual exaggeration and fear mongering. Add a touch of arm wrestling, and unfunded $ bribes... and you get the unedifying spectacle. And many of the population fell for this!! When Abbott's intention is to make it difficult for the ignorant of prejudiced to see the truth, it is all the more scurrilous. And they think it is legitimate to rise to Government status on this basis?! They are about to get their reality check (I hope).

Reform of our political life is more necessary than ever.

I suspect the "blood-letting" will come later..... for the Conservatives. Abbott would no doubt continue his propogandist adversarial style. However it may become "outdated" (one would hope) by virtue of the fact that a NEGOTIATION style of governing will be necessary. Cheap one liners - along the lines of neon-lit "Boat People"- hopefully gets relegated to recent shameful history. Turnbull's star will rise again...IF he can clear out the dead wood from the Liberal's et al. Howard's ghost needs to be purged once and for all.

Labor will be breathing a sigh of relief that their reforms can continue (hopefully more finessed this time). If there is any blood-letting on the Labor side, it should happen with their media manipulators. Given the new paradigm with the Greens, Labor will have to reinvent the way it does politics....Indeed it is on the way, if Julia Gillard's conduct and words of recent times is anything to go by.

It will either be a very interesting reforming time, or, it will fall apart. If the latter, it will be in no small part due to whether Abbott continues in head-kicker style to ruin the show.

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AJB:

06 Sep 2010 2:38:03pm

According to the big miners the resource rent tax will only bring in around $1b a year, nothing close to the $5-$6 billion Labor are counting on. In todays Australian newspaper there is an article outlining this and states this is the reason the big miners backed off during the election campaign. By their calculations they are only going to be taxed a few hundred million a year as opposed to the billions Labor have sprouted off about.

Maybe the 3 Amigo's need to consider this, as well as treasury's numbers before the decide who's gonna get the job. Could be a deficit for many, many years to come if treasury got the numbers wrong due to Labors "assumptions" being over the top. Sound a little like the other sides little calculation error due to "assumptions" that were a little ambitious.

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