Hurricane TV

Jim's predictions for the week!!

DISCLAIMER:These weekly predictions are just for fun(although I may be right from time to time) DISCLAIMER:I am not a meteorologist,I am not a professional forecaster. I check satellite,Models & upper air flows to make my decisions ,basically throwing the dice. Sometimes I may notice something the forecast models do not pick up on. For official advisories and forecast's go to The National hurricane center.
Updated every Monday.(Times may vary) but there will be updated predictions for significant hurricane threats
Accuracy basis per week=0%=a storm forms a day or two after saying no development or completely off on every aspect of current system for the week & something else forms I did not predictor nothing forms & I predicted a named storm---30%= may get 1 thing right such as strength, but way wrong on direction & or time of landfall.---50%= after predicting no development a storm forms on the 5th day of period or I am right on strength & off on movement or visa versa---70%=after predicting no development a storm forms on 6th day of forecast or everything right except strength & or a bit off of movement of system.---100%= I predict no development & nothing happens or I predict everything pretty accurate except for just off on movement give or take 100 miles off or so..
WEEK#1=100%--#2=100%--#3=0%----#4=100%----#5=75%----#6=30%----#7=100%----#8=60%----#9=70%----#10=20%----#11=60%----#12=80%----#13=80%----#14=90% =965 for the year 68.92%
Season accuracy after the 2001 Hurricane season 70.77%
Season accuracy after the 2002 Hurricane season 75.20%
Season accuracy after the 2003 Hurricane season 53.20%
Season accuracy after the 2004 Hurricane season 68.87%
Season accuracy after the 2005 Hurricane season 51.56%
Season accuracy after the 2006 Hurricane season 70.62%
Season accuracy after the 2007 Hurricane season 72.76%
Season accuracy after the 2008 Hurricane season 58.46%
Season accuracy after the 2009 Hurricane season 75.20%

Predictions from Monday stay up no matter how bad until the following Sunday or Monday,this is the challenge of a 6/7 day forecast
... (for the week of Sept 6th through Sept 12th) This past week of predictions may have been my best so far this year. I predicted that Earl would pass 100 to 150 miles east of the outer banks weaken to a cat 2 around 36N this was while Earl was down north of Puerto Rico. Earl weakened to cat 2 around 32N & passed approx 75 miles east of the outer banks. I called for Earl to hit western New Foundland as an extratropical storm, but Earl ended up hitting Nova Scotia as a tropical storm. Based on less than 30 miles off on track near the outer banks , almost dead on with intensity despite models & the forecast showing a stronger system at 36N. The point that I showed recurvature further away from the U.S despite some models taking this into New England I will grade myself 90% accuracy on Earl using my scale above. I also called for Fiona to weaken & follow a weakness left behind by Earl & head towards Bermuda which is exactly what happened. I called for Gaston to form east of the Leeward Islands setting the stage for this week. Gaston did form but then weakened to a remnant low east of the Leewards. The only real flaw in this past week was not predicting T.D #10 to form in the gulf which happened on Sunday. Overall I will grade myself 90% for this past week considering the challenges & going slightly against model data. For this week, lets start with what is now Tropical Storm Hermine from T.D #10 in the gulf. I expect Hermine to strengthen to 70mph & approach Hurricane strength while moving inland near the Texas/Mexico border. If this moves further north than that it would weaken due to dry air moving down from the N.W. A blocking high to the north along witha trough to the west should funnel Hermine right into the border. Former Gaston is east of the Leeward Islands moving west and remains weak. I expect this system to remain weak due to dry air intrusion from the east and an upper low to its west. Gaston should move into the Greater Antilles at most as a tropical depression despite some intensity models showing a hurricane. This system will stay tangled with the islands through the week and I expect no redevelopment. By late week we could see a strong wave develop into Igor in the east Atlantic and this could make it across going into next week. We could also see Julia form off Africa as well as the Cape Verde train is full speed ahead.
Be sure to check out my tropical update videos right here


2003, jims top 5 #1)Halifax NS (Juan) #2)Cozumel (Claudette), #3)Brownsville (Erika), #4)Oviedo DR (Odette) #5)Elizabeth city N.C (Isabel).
2004 top 5 #1)Ft Walton/Pensacola (Ivan) ,#2)Cape hatteras (Gaston),#3)Acklins Isl BH (Frances), #4)Cozumel (0),#5)Cabo Corrientes Cuba (Ivan).
2005 top 5 Punta Allen MX (Emily), #2)Gulfport MS (Katrina), #3)Pascagoula MS (Katrina), #4)Vero bch (0), #5)Biloxi MS (Katrina) "notice the Mississippi heavy leaning"
2006 top 5 #1)vero bch (Ernesto), #2)Pascagoula MS(0), #3) Sable Isl NS (0), #4)Mobile Al (0), #5)Cape Hatteras (0),
2007 top 5 #1)Elizabeth city NC (Gabrielle), #2)Belize (Dean),#3)Bluefields Nicaragua (0), #4)Antigua (0), #5)Martinique(Dean).
2008 top 5 #1)St Martin (Omar), #2)Antigua/guadeloupe (0), #3)Grand Bahama (0), #4) Destin (0), #5) Vero to Lake worth (Fay) .Ticking time bomb=Morgan city La(Gustav)
2009 top 5 #1) Grand Bahama (0), #2)Cancun Mx (0) , #3) Bluefields Nicaragua (Ida), #4 Ft Lauderdale (0), #5 Pascagoula MS,(Ida)

Picks for the 2010 season released on June 1st for a named storm coming within 60 miles

VERY HIGH THREAT.......Vero Bch,FL....Ft Walton bch,FL....Ft Lauderdale,FL (TS Bonnie)
....Pascagoula MS....Boynton bch,FL....
MODERATE THREAT...Punta Allen,MX....Grand Bahama Isl....Tampico,MX
....CatIsl BAH....Grenada....Manzanillo,Cuba....Elizabeth city,N.C.... Martinique....Aklins Isl BAH....
Miami,FL.(ts Bonnie)...Great Exuma BAH....Bimini BAH.(ts bonnie)...Barbados....Biloxi,MS
....San Salvador BAH....
Ticking timebomb.....Beaufort,South Carolina


If you have a comment or question about my predictions or about hurricanes,post it here at canetalk.com | During this week back in?

MODELS/PREDICTIONS

24 hour GFS model
48 hour GFS model
GFS/NAM models 11days,SW Atl animation
Long range model runs
NAM 5 day loop
ECMWF Euorpean model in color(fox tampa)
ECMWF homepage model Atlantic animation
Navy FNMOC world WXMAP Nogaps
gfs,cmc,nogaps,gfdl,wrf,ecmwf(PSU)
Animated versions of cmc,gfs,gfdl,nogaps,(FSU)
UKMET
Weather underground Jeff Masters models tropical info
WINDS

current upper level winds
upper level winds in 48 hrs
Scatterometer storm surface winds
Current & past winds at all levels
MJO forecast
Tropical cyclone formation potential
African dust animation
is it warm or cold core system?
BOUY & SHIP DATA

(MAP)Buoy data
Ocean pressures from sailwx.info
ship obs & locations from sailwx
Sea level pressure anomalies


AFRICAN WAVES
Observations of waves in africa(WU)
closeup satelites of waves in Africa
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

sea surface temperatures(global daily)
Atlantic water temp map (WU)
Closeup water temp map of NE US
Closeup water temp map of SE US
SST animation NOAA atlantic basin
Easier to read water temp maps from TPC
NCEP hurricane potential, from SSTs to water temps
World ocean temperature anomalies over the past 12 weeks
SST Depths and heat potential (AOML)
SATELLITE LOOPS & TIDES
Crown Weather services zooms in on storm
Wave forecast's for western Atlantic basin
LSU vapor loop showing dry air
Vortical hot tower animation on developing systems
Color enhanced vapor loop
Water vapor earth scan lab channel 3 LSU
LSU loop current animation
hurricanecity satellite page history etc;
Expected high tides for areas affected by tropical systems listed in alphabetical order


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