... (for the week of Sept 6th through Sept 12th) This past week of predictions may have been my best so far this year. I predicted that Earl would pass 100 to 150 miles east of the outer banks weaken to a cat 2 around 36N this was while Earl was down north of Puerto Rico. Earl weakened to cat 2 around 32N & passed approx 75 miles east of the outer banks. I called for Earl to hit western New Foundland as an extratropical storm, but Earl ended up hitting Nova Scotia as a tropical storm. Based on less than 30 miles off on track near the outer banks , almost dead on with intensity despite models & the forecast showing a stronger system at 36N. The point that I showed recurvature further away from the U.S despite some models taking this into New England I will grade myself 90% accuracy on Earl using my scale above. I also called for Fiona to weaken & follow a weakness left behind by Earl & head towards Bermuda which is exactly what happened. I called for Gaston to form east of the Leeward Islands setting the stage for this week. Gaston did form but then weakened to a remnant low east of the Leewards. The only real flaw in this past week was not predicting T.D #10 to form in the gulf which happened on Sunday. Overall I will grade myself 90% for this past week considering the challenges & going slightly against model data. For this week, lets start with what is now Tropical Storm Hermine from T.D #10 in the gulf. I expect Hermine to strengthen to 70mph & approach Hurricane strength while moving inland near the Texas/Mexico border. If this moves further north than that it would weaken due to dry air moving down from the N.W. A blocking high to the north along witha trough to the west should funnel Hermine right into the border. Former Gaston is east of the Leeward Islands moving west and remains weak. I expect this system to remain weak due to dry air intrusion from the east and an upper low to its west. Gaston should move into the Greater Antilles at most as a tropical depression despite some intensity models showing a hurricane. This system will stay tangled with the islands through the week and I expect no redevelopment. By late week we could see a strong wave develop into Igor in the east Atlantic and this could make it across going into next week. We could also see Julia form off Africa as well as the Cape Verde train is full speed ahead.|
Be sure to check out my tropical update videos right here
|2003, jims top 5 #1)Halifax NS (Juan) #2)Cozumel (Claudette), #3)Brownsville (Erika), #4)Oviedo DR (Odette) #5)Elizabeth city N.C (Isabel).|
2004 top 5 #1)Ft Walton/Pensacola (Ivan) ,#2)Cape hatteras (Gaston),#3)Acklins Isl BH (Frances), #4)Cozumel (0),#5)Cabo Corrientes Cuba (Ivan).
2005 top 5 Punta Allen MX (Emily), #2)Gulfport MS (Katrina), #3)Pascagoula MS (Katrina), #4)Vero bch (0), #5)Biloxi MS (Katrina) "notice the Mississippi heavy leaning"
2006 top 5 #1)vero bch (Ernesto), #2)Pascagoula MS(0), #3) Sable Isl NS (0), #4)Mobile Al (0), #5)Cape Hatteras (0),
2007 top 5 #1)Elizabeth city NC (Gabrielle), #2)Belize (Dean),#3)Bluefields Nicaragua (0), #4)Antigua (0), #5)Martinique(Dean).
2008 top 5 #1)St Martin (Omar), #2)Antigua/guadeloupe (0), #3)Grand Bahama (0), #4) Destin (0), #5) Vero to Lake worth (Fay) .Ticking time bomb=Morgan city La(Gustav)
2009 top 5 #1) Grand Bahama (0), #2)Cancun Mx (0) , #3) Bluefields Nicaragua (Ida), #4 Ft Lauderdale (0), #5 Pascagoula MS,(Ida)
VERY HIGH THREAT.......Vero Bch,FL....Ft Walton bch,FL....Ft Lauderdale,FL (TS Bonnie)
....Pascagoula MS....Boynton bch,FL....
MODERATE THREAT...Punta Allen,MX....Grand Bahama Isl....Tampico,MX
....CatIsl BAH....Grenada....Manzanillo,Cuba....Elizabeth city,N.C.... Martinique....Aklins Isl BAH....
Miami,FL.(ts Bonnie)...Great Exuma BAH....Bimini BAH.(ts bonnie)...Barbados....Biloxi,MS
....San Salvador BAH....
Ticking timebomb.....Beaufort,South Carolina