Gold Derby

Tom O'Neil has the inside track on Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and all the award shows.

Category: SAG Awards

'Modern Family' returns – to claim another Emmy?

September 22, 2010 |  7:44 am

Modern family dvdTuesday, the DVD of "Modern Family's" first TV season went on sale. Tonight at 9 Pacific/Eastern, the show's sophomore season debuts with an episode titled "The Old Wagon" in which Phil (Ty Burrell) and Claire (Julie Bowen) get misty-eyed with nostalgia when they plan to give up their old Dunphy station wagon.

In our message boards, our posters are hoping the recent Emmy sweep of "Modern Family" (six trophies, include best comedy series, writing and supporting actor for Eric Stonestreet) will give it momentum heading into the next Golden Globes and SAG Awards, where it performed poorly earlier this year.

The Times' Home section has recent features about the homes showcased in the TV show. One reveals that the "Modern Family" home of Phil and Claire  is in Cheviot Hills and has a couch from Sofa U Love. In another, the TV series' production designer, Richard Berg, describes the Dunphy décor as "Pottery Barn-Restoration Hardware traditional modern."

Below, a TV Guide video of the cast performing a table read of an upcoming episode script.

Photo: DVD of Season 1 of "Modern Family." Credit: ABC

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Should SAG be honoring Ernest Borgnine?

August 19, 2010 |  3:11 pm

Ernest Borgnine Oscar winner Ernest Borgnine ("Marty") is to receive the lifetime achievement award from the Screen Actors Guild on Jan. 30, six days after he turns 94. In making the announcement, SAG president Ken Howard said, "Whether portraying brutish villains, sympathetic everymen, complex leaders or hapless heroes, Ernest Borgnine has brought a boundless energy which, at 93, is still a hallmark of his remarkably busy life and career. It is with that same joyous spirit that we salute his impressive body of work and his steadfast generosity."

While Borgnine's work ethic is admirable — he has three films due out this year — his personal politics are less than laudable. Four years ago, he waded into the discussion about the merits of the movie "Brokeback Mountain," the first film to feature A-list talent in a gay love story. As Borgnine told Entertainment Weekly, "I didn’t see it and I don’t care to see it. I know they say it’s a good picture, but I don’t care to see it." Then he added, "If John Wayne were alive, he’d be rolling over in his grave!"

Such sentiments were widespread enough in Hollywood to cause "Brokeback Mountain" to stumble in the home stretch of the awards derby. The film was the front-runner after having been named the best picture of the year by 23 award groups, including the Producers Guild, BAFTA, Indie Spirits, Los Angeles Film Critics Assn., New York Film Critics Circle, the Broadcast Film Critics Assn. and the Golden Globes (where "Crash" wasn't even nominated).

Then "Brokeback Mountain" lost all four of its SAG Awards bids and would go down to defeat in these same races at the Oscars. The SAG ensemble prize was claimed by best picture winner "Crash," the SAG lead actor award went to eventual Oscar champ Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote") over Heath Ledger and supporting actress was taken likewise by Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener") over Michelle Williams. Supporting actor nominee Jake Gyllenhaal was beaten by Paul Giamatti ("Cinderella Man") at SAG while both of them lost to George Clooney ("Syriana") at the Oscars.

While academy voters rewarded "Brokeback Mountain" director Ang Lee and screenwriters Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana as well as composer Gustavo Santaolalla, they could not award this breakthrough film the best picture prize. How many of them were like Borgnine and didn't even watch it? 

Photo: Ernest Borgnine holds his best actor Oscar for "Marty" at the Academy Awards in 1956. Credit: AMPAS

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2010 derby: Key award dates

August 4, 2010 | 12:01 pm

Here are some of the important kudos dates we know so far:

Derby Horses Oscar statuette

Aug. 9 – Teen Choice Awards
Aug. 29 – Primetime Emmys
Sept. 12 -- MTV Video Music Awards
Nov. 22 -- International Emmys
Nov. 29 – Gotham Awards
Dec. 8 – WGA TV nominees announced
Dec. 16 – SAG nominations
Jan. 4, 2011 – WGA film nominees announced
Jan. 16, 2011 – Golden Globes
Jan. 22, 2011 – Producers Guild of America Awards
Jan. 25, 2011 – Oscar nominations
Jan. 30, 2011 – Screen Actors Guild Awards
Feb. 5, 2011 – Writers Guild of America Awards
Feb. 13, 2011 – BAFTA
Feb. 13, 2011 – Grammys
Feb. 27, 2011 – Oscars

Illustration by Ty Wilson

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Oscars guided by guild awards in nominations

February 2, 2010 | 10:01 am

Oscars New Members movie news 1357986 This year, 19 of the 20 SAG acting nominees are contending at the Academy Awards. The only one not to make the cut was SAG supporting actress contender Diane Kruger ("Inglourious Basterds"), who was replaced on the Oscars ballot by Maggie Gyllenhaal ("Crazy Heart").

Last year, 18 of the 19 SAG acting nominees repeated at the Academy Awards. As double SAG nominee Kate Winslet was bumped up by the Oscars from supporting to lead for "The Reader," she was denied a lead nod for "Revolutionary Road." However, that film's Michael Shannon managed to knock SAG nominee Dev Patel of "Slumdog Millionaire" out of the supporting race.

Two years ago, 15 of the 20 SAG nominees went on to compete at the Oscars. Three years ago, it was also 19 of the 20 with the one variation coming from the same film -- "The Departed" -- as SAG nominee Leonardo DiCaprio was replaced at Oscar time by Mark Wahlberg.

Four of the five SAG-nominated ensembles appear in Oscar-nominated best pictures with only "Nine" not making it into the top 10. Last year, four of the five SAG-nominated ensembles also did so, with SAG contender "Doubt" replaced by "The Reader." "Slumdog Millionaire" won both awards. Two years ago, only one SAG ensemble nominee -- "No Country for Old Men" -- made it into the best picture race, although that film won both prizes as well. Three years ago, it was three of five, with "Little Miss Sunshine" taking the SAG prize but losing the top Oscar to "The Departed."

Last year, all five of the lead actress nominees also competed for both awards. Two years ago, it was four of five as the only SAG nominee not needing a babysitter come Oscar night was Angelina Jolie ("A Mighty Heart"), whose spot went to "The Savages" star Laura Linney.

As with this year, last year's supporting actress race matched up only four to five as the promotion of Winslet for "The Reader" left room at the Oscars for the addition of Marisa Tomei ("The Wrestler"). Two years ago, this race was also four for five with SAG nominee Catherine Keener ("Into the Wild") replaced by Saoirse Ronan ("Atonement").

Last year, lead actor also matched up perfectly. Two years ago, it went three for five with the SAG nominees as relative newcomers Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild") and Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") were replaced at the Oscars by Hollywood vets Johnny Depp ("Sweeney Todd") and Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah").

Last year's supporting actor race was four for five with Shannon replacing Patel. Two years ago, SAG nominee Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men") was replaced by Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War").

This year, the DGA lineup is repeated at the Oscars. Last year's DGA picks for best director matched up with four of the five academy choices as DGA nominee Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight") was edged out at the Oscars by Stephen Daldry ("The Reader"). Two years ago, DGA nominee Sean Penn ("Into the Wild") lost his Oscar slot to Jason Reitman, who helmed best pic nominee "Juno."

Of this year's 10 PGA nominees for best picture, eight of them earned Oscar nods. The exceptions: One box office champ -- "Star Trek" -- was replaced by another -- "The Blind Side" -- and one set of Oscar favorites -- Clint Eastwood and "Invictus" -- was replaced by another -- the Coen brothers and "A Serious Man."

Last year, the PGA went four for five with the Oscar contenders as "The Dark Knight" was bumped by "The Reader." Two years ago, it was also four for five with PGA nominee "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" replaced by "Atonement."

This year, only two of the five WGA nominees for original screenplay -- "The Hurt Locker" and "A Serious Man" -- are contending at the Oscars. Last year, just one of the five WGA nominees for original screenplay made it into the Oscar race -- eventual winner Dustin Lance Black ("Milk"). Two years ago, the WGA picks lined up with the Oscar nominees except for "Knocked Up," which was knocked out of the competition by the team that whipped up "Ratatouille."

The adapted screenplay Oscar race only includes two of the WGA nominees as well -- "Precious" and "Up in the Air." Last year, the Oscars went four for five with only the WGA nominees for "The Dark Knight" bumped by David Hare, who adapted "The Reader." Two years ago, Sean Penn, who wowed the WGA with his adaptation of "Into the Wild," was snubbed at the Oscars as was the scripter for "Zodiac." They were replaced by "Atonement" adapter Christopher Hampton and first time writer-director Sarah Polley.

The Oscar nominees for best cinematography line up with the American Society of Cinematographers choices with the exception of "Nine" lenser Dion Beebe, who was replaced by "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" shooter Bruno Delbonnel. Last year, ASC nominee Roger Deakins ("Revolutionary Road") was replaced at the Oscars by Tom Stern for "Changeling." Two years ago, the ASC went five for five.

This year, the Oscar nominees for editing include just three of the American Cinema Editors' picks as the cutters for "Inglourious Basterds" and "Precious" replace those for "Star Trek" and "Up in the Air." Last year, the nominees lined up, and two years ago, ACE nominee "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" was replaced by "Michael Clayton."

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My fearless, peerless, 100% perfect Oscar nomination predictions

January 31, 2010 |  7:04 pm

Oscar nominations will be unveiled Tuesday morning. Here's what the derby track looks like in my crystal ball.

BEST PICTURE
"Avatar"
"District 9"
Oscar nominations Academy Awards news"An Education"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Invictus"
"Precious"
"A Serious Man"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"

Vulnerable on the list above are "District 9," "Invictus" and "A Serious Man," which can be bumped by "The Hangover," "The Messenger," "A Single Man" or "Star Trek."


BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
James Cameron, "Avatar"
Lee Daniels, "Precious"
Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air"
Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"

These seem to be set in stone.


BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney, "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth, "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"

Jeremy Renner may be bumped by Viggo Mortensen ("The Road").


BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"
Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious"
Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"

Emily Blunt ("The Young Victoria") might dethrone one of the above.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"
Christian McKay, "Me and Orson Welles"
Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"

This is one of the toughest categories to predict because there are too many other strong contenders, including Matt Damon ("Invictus"), Alec Baldwin ("It's Complicated"), Anthony Mackie ("The Hurt Locker") and Alfred Molina and Peter Sarsgaard ("An Education"). I put Christian McKay on my list because he gives a flashy portrayal of one of Hollywood's most idolized heroes, Orson Welles, in what is arguably a lead performance. Like Woody Harrelson, I think he even has a longshot chance to beat Christoph Waltz, but McKay's campaign DVD was sent rather late. That could hurt his chance of getting on this list.

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Is Sandra Bullock an inevitable Oscar champ?

January 25, 2010 |  6:34 pm

Attention, Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart") and Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side"): You don't automatically have the Oscar in the bag just because you won both the Golden Globe and SAG Award. Several lead stars pulled off the same coup and lost at the Academy Awards: Julie Christie ("Away From Her"), Renee Zellweger ("Chicago") and Russell Crowe ("A Beautiful Mind").

Golden Globe SAG Award Oscar news

Jamian Edward Bailey posted some comments at Facebook in response to some of my reportage on SAG Award winners that are appropriate to this topic, so I'd like to share them here. Words and stats below are Jamian's:

There are several actors who won the Golden Globe and not the SAG, but they went on to win the Oscar. They were Jessica Lange (1994), Mira Sorvino (1995), Hilary Swank (1999), Jim Broadbent (2001), Chris Cooper (2002), Nicole Kidman (2002), Sean Penn (2003), George Clooney (2005).

Instances where actors won the SAG, but not the Globe and went on to the Oscar were Susan Sarandon (1995), Frances McDormand (1996), Cuba Gooding Jr. (1996), Robin Williams (1997), Roberto Benigni (1998), Kevin Spacey (1999), Michael Caine (1999), Halle Berry (2001), Catherine Zeta-Jones (2002), Morgan Freeman (2004), Cate Blanchett (2004), Sean Penn (2008).

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Best performance by a SAG Awards prophet: Peter Travers

January 24, 2010 |  8:11 am

Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) not only had the best score out of 15 pundits predicting 13 contests at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, he got 12 categories correct. The only race he got wrong: he opted for Edie Falco ("Nurse Jackie") for best TV comedy actress instead of winner Tina Fey ("30 Rock").

SAG Awards predictions Screen Actors Guild winners 2

Joining Travers in getting all five film races right were Nathaniel Rogers (Film Experience), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily), Chuck Walton (Fandango) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today). Below is the full list of scores. See the original breakdown of predictions here.

PREDICTING 13 FILM AND TV RACES
12
– Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
11 – Peter Howell (Toronto Star), Nathaniel Rogers (Film Experience), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today)
10– Scott Feinberg (AndTheWinnerIs), Chuck Walton (Fandango)
9 – Pete Hammond (Notes on a Season, TheEnvelope), Tariq Khan (Fox News)
8 – Guy Lodge (InContention), Steve Pond (The Odds, TheWrap)
7 – Marshall Fine (Star Magazine, Hollywood and Fine), Paul Gaita (The Circuit, The Envelope) Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby, The Envelope)

PREDICTING 5 FILM RACES
5– Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily)
3 – Brad Brevet (RopeOfSilicon), Erik Davis (Cinematical), Lou Lumenick (New York Post)
2 – Thelma Adams (Us Weekly)

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Is the SAG Ensemble award really an Oscar prophet?

Experts predict who'll win the SAG Awards

Photo by Tom O'Neil / For The Times

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Justin Timberlake, Sandra Bullock among SAG Awards presenters

January 23, 2010 |  9:07 am
SAG Awards presenters news SAG

Here are some of the stars who'll bestow laurels to colleagues at the Screen Actors Guild Awards tonight (9 ET/ PT, TBS and TNT): Christina Applegate, Simon Baker, Alec Baldwin, Benjamin Bratt, Sandra Bullock, George Clooney, Marion Cotillard, Penelope Cruz, Jenna Fischer, Morgan Freeman, Brian Geraghty, Jon Hamm, Felicity Huffman, Kate Hudson, Anna Kendrick, Nicole Kidman, Diane Kruger, Jane Lynch, Anthony Mackie, Helen Mirren, Michelle Monaghan, Mo'Nique, Carey Mulligan, Chris O’Donnell, Anna Paquin, Jeremy Renner, Ray Romano, Kyra Sedgwick, Gabourey Sidibe, Meryl Streep, Justin Timberlake, Stanley Tucci, Christoph Waltz and Sigourney Weaver.

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Photo: SAG

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Is the SAG ensemble award really an Oscar prophet?

January 23, 2010 |  8:57 am

The ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards has a widespread reputation for foretelling what film will win best picture at the Oscars. The logic goes like this: Since actors comprise the largest branch within the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences (1,300 out of 5,800 members), the thespians within the guild are a good gauge of how all actors think. And since actors weigh films according to collective dramatic impact, the SAG ensemble award is a rough equivalent to the Oscars' best picture prize.

SAG Awards predict Oscars news

If that's the case, forget "Avatar" or "Up in the Air" winning the top Oscar on March 7. Neither is nominated for the SAG ensemble prize. The five contenders: "An Education," "The Hurt Locker," "Inglourious Basterds," "Nine" and "Precious."

But how accurate has the ensemble award really been in the past? Well, by comparison to how well the other SAG awards predict, for example, the Oscar champs for best actor and actress (more than 66%), the ensemble award has one of the worst prediction rates: Only seven of the 14 winners of best ensemble won the top Oscar. However, what's interesting is that two of those winners were the biggest upsets in recent Oscar history: "Shakespeare in Love" and "Crash." Here are the past victors:

* = Oscar best-picture winner

2008 – "Slumdog Millionaire" *
2007 – "No Country for Old Men" *
2006 – "Little Miss Sunshine"
2005 – "Crash" *
2004 – "Sideways"
2003 – "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" *
2002 – "Chicago" *
2001 – "Gosford Park"
2000 – "Traffic"

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SAG Awards: Who will win and WHY

January 22, 2010 |  1:10 pm

Tariq Khan (Fox News) is one of the shrewdest award scholars I know. After he generously contributed his SAG Awards predictions to this roundup we pooled from many top experts, he agreed to write up detailed explanations for the rop races. Words below are Tariq's:

SAG Awards predictions 83290154 news

FILM ACTOR: I think Jeff Bridges has it, though an upset by George Clooney is certainly possible because "Up in the Air" has been far more widely seen than "Crazy Heart." Still, Bridges is a very respected actor and even those who haven't seen the film will want to reward him.

FILM ACTRESS: I went back and forth on this for hours before finally settling on Meryl Streep. The reason? She's acting royalty and Sandy Bullock isn't. And even though "Julie and Julia" may seem lightweight, comedy has a better success rate with the SAG voters (remember Johnny Depp's upset win for "Pirates of the Caribbean" six years ago? ) than other groups. However – even if Bullock loses that doesn't mean that she can't win the Oscar.

FILM ENSEMBLE: "Inglourious Basterds" has it all – a large cast, a wartime setting, several memorable characters and a blend of comedy and drama that has proven victorious in this race in the past ("The Birdcage," "The Full Monty," and "Gosford Park.") It has much more widespread appeal than "Precious" and "The Hurt Locker," and I guarantee you that it has been more widely seen by SAG members than the other four films combined.

TV DRAMA ACTOR: I don't think "Dexter" is seen by enough people for Michael C. Hall to win. Hugh Laurie benefits from the huge ratings from "House," not to mention the cool British thespian factor.

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