Here's a roundup of Emmy Award predictions from the best pundits on the planet: Mike Ausiello (Entertainment Weekly), Kristin dos Santos (E! Online), Maggie Furlong (AOL TV Squad), Joseph Kapsch (Zap2It), Steve Pond (The Odds, The Wrap), Matt Roush (TV Guide) plus the Gold Derby/The Envelope team of Chris "Boomer" Beachum, Rob Licuria and me. Read category-per-category analysis here.

COMEDY SERIES
"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
"Glee" — Dos Santos
"Modern Family" — Ausiello, Beachum, Furlong, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pond, Roush
"Nurse Jackie"
"The Office"
"30 Rock"

COMEDY ACTOR
Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory") — Ausiello, Beachum, Dos Santos, Furlong, Pond, Roush
Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm")
Matthew Morrison ("Glee")
Tony Shalhoub ("Monk") — Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil
Steve Carell ("The Office")
Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock")

COMEDY ACTRESS
Lea Michele ("Glee") — Dos Santos
Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("The New Adventures of Old Christine")
Edie Falco ("Nurse Jackie") — Ausiello, Beachum, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pond, Roush
Amy Poehler ("Parks and Recreation")
Tina Fey ("30 Rock")
Toni Collette ("United States of Tara") — Furlong

SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTOR
Chris Colfer ("Glee") — Kapsch, O'Neil
Neil Patrick Harris ("How I Met Your Mother")
Jesse Tyler Ferguson ("Modern Family")
Eric Stonestreet ("Modern Family") — Beachum, Dos Santos, Licuria, Pond
Ty Burrell ("Modern Family") — Ausiello, Furlong, Roush
Jon Cryer ("Two and a Half Men")

SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTRESS
Jane Lynch ("Glee") — Ausiello, Beachum, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pond, Roush
Julie Bowen ("Modern Family")
Sofia Vergara ("Modern Family")
Kristen Wiig ("Saturday Night Live")
Jane Krakowski ("30 Rock")
Holland Taylor ("Two and a Half Men")

DRAMA SERIES
"Breaking Bad" — Dos Santos
"Dexter"
"The Good Wife"
"Lost" — Furlong
"Mad Men" — Ausiello, Beachum, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pond, Roush
"True Blood"

DRAMA ACTOR
Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") — Ausiello, Furlong
Michael C. Hall ("Dexter") — Beachum, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pond, Roush
Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights") — Dos Santos
Hugh Laurie ("House")
Matthew Fox ("Lost")
Jon Hamm ("Mad Men")

DRAMA ACTRESS
Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")
Glenn Close ("Damages")
Connie Britton ("Friday Night Lights")
Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife") — Ausiello, Beachum, Dos Santos, Furlong, Kapsch, Licuria, O'Neil, Pond, Roush
Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: Special Victims Unit")
January Jones ("Mad Men")

It's not often that I let myself be bulldozed into a prediction, but Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Rob Licuria (AwardsHeaven) make such a compelling argument for Michael C. Hall ("Dexter") to win the Emmy for lead actor in a drama that, OK, I admit I'm stealing their predix.

But I do so with queasiness. As they attest, this contest is a tossup. However, I do quarrel with two of their views. They rank Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") too high and Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights") too low. Hamm, I think, has no chance to win. He has one nice scene in his Emmy episode when he cries while recalling his brother's suicide. Big deal. (Uh, oh -- that sounds so callous, doesn't it?) Chandler's episode is the loudest, most bombastic, as he bullies his high-school football players. Sometimes the biggest acting prevails. Click here to watch Boomer, Rob and I dish this race via webcam video.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("The Getaway")
2. Hugh Laurie, "House" ("Broken")
3. Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Full Measure")
4. Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Gypsy and the Hobo")
5. Matthew Fox, "Lost" ("The End")
6. Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights" ("East of Dillon")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: My e-mail to Tom and Chris last week was something like "Help me, I can't make heads or tails of this category! It's too difficult!" After re-watching all of the episodes in succession, I haven't changed my tune. I don't recall a category in recent Emmy history so stacked with wonderfully chosen episodes showcasing stunning dramatic masterpiece performances from the cream of the crop of TV dramatic acting.

It pains me to put Kyle Chandler in sixth place. His work in this episode is absolutely fantastic. Two scenes in particular, as he address and/or scolds his team, are wonderful. He would be a winner in any other year, and the sixth spot is by no means a slight on him at all, but somebody has to fill up the slots, and by comparison, I think that the show he is on, the network, and the relative small screen time, do hurt his chances a little.

Similarly, Matthew Fox is absolutely amazing in the "Lost" finale. The last 15 minutes in particular are mesmerizing, devastating and emotionally pitch-perfect. If the episode was whittled down to his scenes alone, he would be much more competitive, but voters have to sit through a double episode, where Fox is not featured for long stretches of time. Surely that will disadvantage him. Again, I stress that he could easily win, if voters respond to the emotion of the final scenes like I did. Watch him die on the jungle floor as the plane flies over his pained-but-happy face and tell me that he doesn't deserve the Emmy.

Jon Hamm has never had a better chance at winning the Emmy that this year. In his episode, the gruff, tough exterior of his Don Draper persona is smashed away by the unwelcome reveal to his wife about his true identity and shameful past. Another masterclass in acting, everything he is feeling is right there on his face. I was blown away by his performance, and thought it would be enough to win him the Emmy, until I saw a few of the other guys in this category.

Bryan Cranston, technically (based on this episode alone) should probably be lower on this list. I don't think it is anywhere near as good as his previous submissions or even some of the other episodes of the third season of "Breaking Bad" ("Fly", for example). But, as a two-time consecutive past winner on a Drama Series-nominated show, I think that he automatically has a bit of an edge over the other guys in this category. And don't get me wrong, the penultimate scene in the episode is dynamite. Don't be surprised if he wins again.

Hugh Laurie has a whole movie-length episode to showcase his character's battle with mental illness, and he doesn't disappoint. The range is there, the characteristics of Dr House that fans and critics alike have grown to cherish are there. The screen time is definitely there. There's even some impact. I initially thought that he might have the front-runner status because there is a perception out there that nobody is more overdue that him. Yet, I just couldn't bring myself to put him in 1st place.

That's because Michael C Hall finally has the episode with which he will likely (finally) take that Emmy that has so far eluded him. Coming off a Golden Globe and SAG win, and John Lithgow's earlier Guest Actor triumph, I think this is Hall's year. The episode does not disappoint -- range, screen time, impact especially with the final haunting scene in the bathroom -- Hall nails it. However, because this category has made me crazy over the last few days, I choose him with a caveat and that is ANYBODY in this group can win this award. I won't be surprised, and would have loved to submit a 6-way tie. But for now, with the proviso that I had to pick a winner, I'm siding with Hall, squeaking over the line in front of Laurie, with Cranston always a deserving threat for another win, and Hamm, Fox and Chandler my sentimental favorites.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1. Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("The Getaway")
2. Hugh Laurie, "House" ("Broken")
3. Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Full Measure")
4. Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Gypsy and the Hobo")
5. Matthew Fox, "Lost" ("The End")
6. Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights" ("East of Dillon")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: All six men deserved to be nominated, and every one of them deserves to actually win this category. That fact is abundantly true based on their incredibly well-chosen episode submissions but also for their seasons and overall contributions to their shows. It is the finest group of nominees and episodes I can remember. Analyzing the category and ranking the nominees is agonizing. Here is my best effort.

Chris "Boomer" Beachum, Rob Licuria (AwardsHeaven) and I agree that Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife") will win the Emmy for best drama actress, but we're not confident. Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer") submitted the best sample episode to judges. Usually, that decides who wins. Sedgwick has something else going for her. After four defeats so far, she's long overdue to triumph. So this contest is a squeaker — really too close to call. But since we're pundits we have to call it anyway. Watch how we squirm with nervousness in our webcam smackdown.

DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife" ("Threesome")
2. Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" ("Maternal Instincts")
3. Glenn Close, "Damages" ("Your Secrets Are Safe")
4. Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights" ("After the Fall")
5. Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit" ("Perverted")
6. January Jones, "Mad Men" ("The Gypsy and the Hobo")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: January Jones has never been better than in Season 3 of "Mad Men" and is a deserving nominee, but I couldn't help but feel that she was a little out of her league here. Opposite Jon Hamm in this pivotal episode, I think she came across a little wooden and more reactionary rather than being the highlight/standout of the episode (aka Jon Hamm himself). Against the caliber of some of these other actresses, I think Jones brings up the rear in this category.

Mariska Hargitay also does not do anything that I would call particularly Emmy-worthy in her episode. She is good. In fact, she is always good, but I can't see "winner" in this one. Sorry. I think her nomination is the reward.

Connie Britton has some excellent material in her episode, but she suffers from not having as much impact as is often necessary. Her acting style is natural, almost underplayed in most respects, and while she has some brilliant writing to showcase her charm and wit (even defiance), the lack of "fireworks" disadvantages her. But I really like her alot, and think she is one of the best actresses on TV right now, and definitely deserving of an Emmy sometime soon.

Glenn Close is Glenn Close. Enough said. That she has a mediocre episode without anything remotely Emmy-worthy harms her chances at a three-peat. But I've learned over the years to never count out Glenn Close. She is all-powerful. And she has two scenes in particular -- one in the flash-forward car accident, and one opposite Lily Tomlin, that are really impressive.

Kyra Sedgwick officially has the best episode of the bunch. Range, impact, screen time. All winners. Some of her scenes with the dying teenage boy are absolutely perfect. Plus, she is likeable, popular in the industry, and well overdue.

But I have Julianna Margulies in the top spot because I think that her episode is enough for her to scrape across the line. She has been criticized for being too subtle, but I think she does enough to evoke the pain, humiliation and confusion of the jilted wife of the philandering politician husband. The subtlety isn't a bad thing. It's just that Emmy voters love their fireworks. It doesn't hurt that she is the star of the biggest new network show of the season and a nominee for best drama series.

DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1. Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife" ("Threesome")
2. Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" ("Maternal Instincts")
3. Glenn Close, "Damages" ("Your Secrets Are Safe")
4. January Jones, "Mad Men" ("The Gypsy and the Hobo")
5. Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit" ("Perverted")
6. Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights" ("After the Fall")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: First of all, I want to thank the voters for getting rid of some major stars (Sally Field and Holly Hunter) who could no longer be justified with nominations based on their most recent seasons. I wish they had done the same with Mariska Hargitay, who continues to essentially receive one showcase episode each year, but whose show has had a major downfall in quality in the last few years. I don't think she really has a shot this time to win.

"I'm happy to be in the same barn with all these other cats," Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights") says in our podcast chat about being nominated for best drama actor at the Emmys opposite Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"), Matthew Fox ("Lost"), Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") and Hugh Laurie ("House"). "It makes me walk a few inches higher off the ground, believe me."

To listen to the audio of our podcast, click on the right-pointing arrow below.

Chandler is not merely in the company of prestigious rivals, he has a real chance to beat them. Ken Tucker of Entertainment Weekly predicts Chandler will prevail, and Tucker may be right. Chandler picked a good episode of "Friday Night Lights" to give to Emmy judges — "East of Dillon," in which he has a powerful locker-room scene, bellowing to the high-school football team he coaches, "If you don't want to be here, get out of my house!" Actually, Chandler didn't really pick the episode himself, as he revealed in our podcast. "I let other people choose it because I couldn't go through the whole season and objectively try to pick something," he says. "I asked people who are respected and who are involved with the show.

"My strategy was to have no strategy," Chandler says in reference to his Emmy candidacy. Though he took a hands-off approach to episode selection, he nonetheless paid attention to the shrewd Emmy campaign run by DirecTV, which included sending all 14,000 members of the TV academy DVDs of the complete fourth season as NBC aired them just weeks before Emmy voting.

"I saw a lot of the material before it went out," he says. "I thought it was fantastic for that support. That's what it's all about. Standing behind the product. To go out there, do all that and pull it off, we've all got our hands in the air."

Photo: NBC / DirecTV

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

Entertainment Weekly's Mike Ausiello and I mostly agree on who'll win Emmys in the top series races Aug. 29. However, there are significant differences in our rankings per category, and there is drastic disagreement over how we size up the contest for best comedy actor. I've got Tony Shalhoub ("Monk") in first place, Mike's got him in last!

Note: My predix are still a bit tentative. I haven't seen a few of the episodes submitted to Emmy judges by nominees as examples of their best work. When I finish up that viewing in a few days, I may make a few changes. Mike may want to make a few last-minute switcheroos too? Meantime, thank you, Mike, for piping in.

BEST DRAMA SERIES	Mike Ausiello	Tom O'Neil
1.	"Mad Men"	"Mad Men"
2.	"Breaking Bad"	"Lost"
3.	"The Good Wife"	"Dexter"
4.	"Dexter"	"The Good Wife"
5.	"Lost"	"Breaking Bad"
6.	"True Blood"	"True Blood"

BEST DRAMA ACTOR	Mike Ausiello	Tom O'Neil
1.	Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"	Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
2.	Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"	Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
3.	Hugh Laurie, "House"	Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"
4.	Matthew Fox, "Lost"	Hugh Laurie, "House"
5.	Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"	Matthew Fox, "Lost"
6.	Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"	Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS	Mike Ausiello	Tom O'Neil
1.	Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"	Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
2.	Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights"	Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights"
3.	Glenn Close, "Damages"	Glenn Close, "Damages"
4.	January Jones, "Mad Men"	Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"
5.	Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"	Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU"
6.	Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU"	January Jones, "Mad Men"

BEST COMEDY SERIES	Mike Ausiello	Tom O'Neil
1.	"Modern Family"	"Modern Family"
2.	"Glee"	"Glee"
3.	"30 Rock"	"30 Rock"
4.	"The Office"	"Nurse Jackie"
5.	"Curb Your Enthusiasm"	"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
6.	"Nurse Jackie"	"The Office"

BEST COMEDY ACTOR	Mike Ausiello	Tom O'Neil
1.	Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"	Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
2.	Steve Carell, "The Office"	Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"
3.	Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"	Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
4.	Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm"	Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
5.	Matthew Morrison, "Glee"	Steve Carell, "The Office"
6.	Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"	Matthew Morrison, "Glee"

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS	Mike Ausiello	Tom O'Neil
1.	Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"	Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
2.	Amy Poehler, "Parks & Recreation"	Toni Collette, "United States of Tara"
3.	Tina Fey, "30 Rock"	Lea Michele, "Glee"
4.	Toni Collette, "United States of Tara"	Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
5.	Lea Michele, "Glee"	Amy Poehler, "Parks & Recreation"
6.	Julie Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine"	Julie Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine"

Photo: Academy of Television Arts & Sciences

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

Never mind which TV shows and stars are favored by Emmy voters. Yahoo measured the lists of Emmy nominees according to which ones were searched most by their Web browsers during the eligibility period spanning June 1, 2009, to May 31, 2010.

TOP SEARCHED BEST SERIES, DRAMA

1. "Lost"

2. "True Blood"

3. "Dexter"

4. "Mad Men"

5. "Breaking Bad"

6. "The Good Wife"
 


TOP SEARCHED BEST SERIES, COMEDY
1. "Glee"

2. "The Office"

3. "Modern Family"

4. "30 Rock"

5. "Nurse Jackie"

6. "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
 

TOP SEARCHED BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
1. Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
2. Hugh Laurie, "House"

3. Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"

4. Matthew Fox, "Lost"

5. Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"

6. Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"

If you don't receive the Los Angeles Times' print edition, you don't see The Envelope's print supplements covering the Emmy derby. Here's a bit of what you're missing — Gold Derby's rundown of the acting races among drama series.

Remember: The Emmy is different from the Oscar, Grammy and Tony, which are decided by popular ballot. It's a juried award. Teams of 50 to 200 actors choose the winner of each performance category after viewing DVDs of sample series episodes or full TV movies and miniseries. When trying to predict the winners, you must know the episodes, which are cited next to programs' titles on the lists below.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights" ("East of Dillon")
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad" ("Full Measure")
Matthew Fox, "Lost" ("The End")
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter" ("The Getaway")
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men" ("The Gypsy and the Hobo")
Hugh Laurie, "House" ("Broken")

SPOTLIGHT: Two-time winner Cranston faces serious challenges from Hall, who recently won the Golden Globe and SAG Award, and Chandler, who gives an explosive performance in his episode fuming at his football team, "If you don't want to be here, get out of my house!" Having the longest episodes may benefit Fox, who entered the "Lost" finale, and Laurie, who undergoes Vicodin detox in a two-hour "House" special.

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
January Jones, "Mad Men" ("The Gypsy and the Hobo")
Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights" ("After the Fall")
Glenn Close, "Damages" ("Your Secrets Are Safe")
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU" ("Perverted")
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife" ("Threesome")
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer" ("Maternal Instincts")

SPOTLIGHT: Close has won for the last two years, but beware: Margulies is an awards darling. She won an Emmy for "ER" (1995) and recently romped at the Golden Globes and SAG for "The Good Wife." Her Emmy episode submission is strong, featuring a quiet crying scene when faced with rumors of her husband's infidelity.

It's no coincidence that "Mad Men" premiered its new season last night — just days before ballots are shipped to Emmy voters to pick winners. TV networks like AMC often air new seasons of Emmy contenders at strategic times to boost award hopes.

Cable series can be more flexible about air dates than can broadcast channels, which usually conform to traditional launch times, such as September or January. But there are exceptions. NBC waited till May sweeps before airing the most recent season of "Friday Night Lights," which originally aired on DirecTV last fall. End of the Emmy eligibility period was May 31. Voting on nominations began June 4. Therefore, NBC gave "Friday Night Lights" perfect scheduling placement, and it paid off with two top nominations for the first time ever: bids for best lead actor and actress for Kyle Chandler and Connie Britton.

Such strategic Emmy scheduling dates back to "Sex and the City," which premiered on HBO on June 6, 1998. It wasn't eligible for awards that September, of course, but it was given high profile during voting season in order to position the show in the minds of TV academy members in the future. For the next few years, "Sex and the City" continued to air its newest season in June just as voters were casting ballots on the previous season. The strategy paid off with repeated nominations in top races, including a victory as best comedy series of 2001.

HBO employed similar scheduling strategies for "Six Feet Under" and "Entourage," which never won best series but nonetheless scored frequent top nominations. The notable exception to the HBO approach was "The Sopranos." Its first two seasons aired January to April in 1999 and 2000. Season 3 aired March 4 to May 20, 2001. Season 4 was telecast from Sept. 15 to Dec. 2, 2002. "The Sopranos" was consistently nominated for best drama series but lost its first four bouts to "The Practice" and "The West Wing." It wasn't until its fifth time up that "The Sopranos" finally won best drama series for the first time after episodes aired between March 7 and June 6, 2004.

You've already seen the Emmy predictions covering the top comedy races from me and our two experts Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Rob Licuria (AwardsHeaven). Now here's how we rank the major drama contests.

BEST DRAMA SERIES	Tom O'Neil	Rob Licuria	Chris Beachum
1.	"Mad Men"	"Mad Men"	"Mad Men"
2.	"Dexter"	"The Good Wife"	"Dexter"
3.	"The Good Wife"	"Dexter"	"Lost"
4.	"Lost"	"Breaking Bad"	"Breaking Bad"
5.	"Breaking Bad"	"Lost"	"The Good Wife"
6.	"True Blood"	"True Blood"	"True Blood"

BEST DRAMA ACTOR	Tom O'Neil	Rob Licuria	Chris Beachum
1.	Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"	Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"	Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
2.	Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"	Matthew Fox, 'Lost"	Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
3.	Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"	Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"	Hugh Laurie, "House M.D."
4.	Hugh Laurie, "House M.D."	Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"	Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"
5.	Matthew Fox, 'Lost"	Hugh Laurie, "House M.D."	Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"
6.	Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"	Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"	Matthew Fox, 'Lost"

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS	Tom O'Neil	Rob Licuria	Chris Beachum
1.	Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"	Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"	Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
2.	Glenn Close, "Damages"	Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights"	Glenn Close, "Damages"
3.	Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"	January Jones, "Mad Men"	January Jones, "Mad Men"
4.	Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights"	Glenn Close, "Damages"	Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights"
5.	Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order"	Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"	Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"
6.	January Jones, "Mad Men"	Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order"	Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order"

Photo: Jon Hamm in "Mad Men." Photo credit: AMC.

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.

Judging from a historical perspective, Connie Britton and Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights"), Matthew Fox ("Lost") and January Jones ("Mad Men") are long shots to win Emmys, according to our contributor Chris "cking33" Hine. He sent an alert to Gold Derby noting that these stars scored their first nominations in the middle or end of their shows' runs and adds:

Never has an actor received a nomination under such circumstances and won. Winners have always either:

1. Been nominated before and

2. Won for the first year of their show.

Even James Spader, while he was nominated and won for the final year of "The Practice," that was his first year on the show, so it doesn't exactly fit the criteria. And even after he won in 2007, after not being nominated in 2006, he was still a two-time winner. You'd have to double-check the facts on this, but I thought it was interesting, and would seem to
suggest that the above four actors and actresses have no chance of winning this year. Mariska Hargitay came close to doing it in 2004, had all the momentum, but then Allison Janney won again (and then proceeded to embarrass poor Mariska by bringing her onstage during her acceptance speech).

Chris posted similar views here in our forums and invites additional comment.

Photo: "Friday Night Lights." Credit: NBC / DirecTV.

Get Gold Derby on Twitter. Join the Gold Derby Group at Facebook. Become friends with Tom O'Neil on Facebook. Get Gold Derby RSS feed via Facebook. RSS Feedburner. RSS Atom.