Now that the fall TV shows have begun to play out, we have a better idea of which ones may be serious contenders at the next big batch of awards: Golden Globes. I asked our gurus, Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Rob Licuria, (AwardsHeaven) to pipe in with their early handicapping.

Boomer responded first with his breakdown. Below is how he sizes up the contest for TV drama series. Rob offered his slight edit: "I would move 'Damages' up to front-runners, add 'No Ordinary Family' to possibles."

Surprisingly, that means "Boardwalk Empire" is the only new show they list as a front-runner to be nominated. Normally, the Globes make a special point to spotlight hot new series, but the recent batch of new shows is getting a largely cool reception.

TV shows nominated last year are marked on the list below with an asterisk (*). "Mad Men" has won this category for the past three years, just as it did at the Emmys.

BEST TV DRAMA SERIES
(Front-runners)
"Big Love" *
"Boardwalk Empire"
"Breaking Bad"
"Dexter"  *
"The Good Wife"
"House" *
"In Treatment"
"Lost"
"Mad Men" *
"True Blood" *

(Possible)
"Blue Bloods"
"The Closer"
"Damages"
"Detroit 187"
"The Event"
"Friday Night Lights"
"Hawaii 5-0"
"Parenthood"
"Sons of Anarchy"
"Treme"

Photo: Charlie Hofheimer and Elisabeth Moss prove that "Mad Men" has remained hot this season. Credit: AMC

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"Lost" won the Emmy for directing once before, back in 2005 when the show won best drama series. Now it'll claim the trophy for helmers again, according to our gurus Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Rob Licuria (AwardsHeaven), who rank the nominees according to likelihood of winning.

ROB'S PREDIX
1. "Lost" ("The End," directed by Jack Bender)
2. "Mad Men" ("Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency," directed by Lesli Linka Glatter)
3. "Dexter" ("The Getaway," directed by Steve Shill)
4. "Breaking Bad" ("One Minute," directed by Michelle MacLaren)
5. "Treme" ("Do You Know What It Means" [pilot], directed by Agnieszka Holland)

BOOMER'S PREDIX
1. "Lost" ("The End," directed by Jack Bender)
2. "Treme" ("Do You Know What It Means,"  directed by Agnieszka Holland)
3. "Mad Men" ("Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency," directed by Lesli Linka Glatter)
4. "Breaking Bad" ("One Minute," directed by Michelle MacLaren)
5. "Dexter" ("The Getaway," directed by Steve Shill)

NOTE: An earlier draft of this blog post incorrectly stated that "Lost" never won an Emmy for directing. The fix has been made.

Photo: The "Lost" cast. Credit: ABC

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Here's who I predict will score bids when Emmy Awards nominations are unveiled Thursday morning:

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Breaking Bad"
"Damages"
"Dexter"
"Mad Men"
"The Good Wife"
"Lost"

ALTERNATES: "Big Love," "Friday Night Lights," "House M.D.," "Sons of Anarchy," "Treme"

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"The Big Bang Theory"
"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
"Family Guy"
"Glee"
"Modern Family"
"30 Rock"

ALTERNATES: "Community," "How I Met Your Mother," "Entourage," "Nurse Jackie," "The Office," "Parks and Recreation," "Weeds"

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Simon Baker ("The Mentalist")
Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad")
Michael C. Hall ("Dexter")
Jon Hamm ("Mad Men")
Hugh Laurie ("House")
Timothy Olyphant ("Justified")

ALTERNATES: Matt Bomer ("White Collar"), Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights"), Matthew Fox ("Lost"), Peter Krause ("Parenthood"), Denis Leary ("Rescue Me"), Bill Paxton ("Big Love"), Wendell Pierce ("Treme"), Kiefer Sutherland ("24")

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close ("Damages")
Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU")
January Jones ("Mad Men")
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife")
Katey Sagal ("Sons of Anarchy")
Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")

ALTERNATES: Sally Field ("Brothers and Sisters"), Anna Gunn ("Breaking Bad"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Melissa Leo ("Treme"), Anna Paquin ("True Blood")

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Steve Carell ("The Office")
Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock")
Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm")
Matthew Morrison ("Glee")
Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory")
Tony Shalhoub ("Monk")

ALTERNATES: David Duchovny ("Californication"), Joel McHale ("Community"), Thomas Jane ("Hung"), Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men")

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
(Front-runners)
Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights"
Glenn Close, "Damages"
Sally Field, "Brothers & Sisters"
Lauren Graham, "Parenthood"
Anna Gunn, "Breaking Bad"
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: SVU"
Holly Hunter, Saving Grace
January Jones, "Mad Men"
Melissa Leo, "Treme"
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
Anna Paquin, "True Blood"
Katey Sagal, "Sons of Anarchy"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"
Jeanne Tripplehorn, "Big Love"

SPOTLIGHT: "The Good Wife" star Julianna Margulies is a good bet to reign. Not only did she win a Golden Globe and a SAG Award earlier this year, but she was an Emmy fave during her heyday as nurse Carol Hathaway on "ER." Margulies was nominated six times (four in lead, twice in supporting), winning the supporting trophy in 1995.

(Possible)
Patricia Arquette, "Medium"
Regina King, "Southland"
Evangeline Lilly, "Lost"
Mary McCormack, "In Plain Sight"
Ellen Pompeo, "Grey's Anatomy"
Jada Pinkett Smith, "Hawthorne"
Kate Walsh, "Private Practice"

(Long shots)
Kim Delaney, "Army Wives"
Emily Deschanel, "Bones"
Marg Helgenberger, "CSI"
Anna Torv, "Fringe"

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS
(Front-runners)
Khandi Alexander, "Treme"
Christine Baranski, "The Good Wife"
Rose Byrne, "Damages"
Calista Flockhart, "Brothers & Sisters"
Sharon Gless, "Burn Notice"
Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers & Sisters"
Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men"
Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"
Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy"
S. Epatha Merkerson, "Law & Order"
Chloe Sevigny, "Big Love"
Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy"

Sure, "Lost" may have lost its way after winning the Emmy Award for best drama series for its first season in 2005, but many fans believe it ended well. Now, can it reclaim this category? Two-time winner "Mad Men" is undefeated here. "Dexter," "Big Love," "Breaking Bad" and "Damages" are overdue to win, and there are some scrappy rookies, including "Sons of Anarchy," "Treme" and "The Good Wife," rapping at the door.

Six nominees are projected for this category, but there were seven last year due to statistical closeness between the sixth- and seventh-placed vote-getters.

* = nominee last year

FRONT-RUNNERS
"Big Love" *
"Breaking Bad" *
"Damages" *
"Dexter" *
"The Good Wife"
"House" *
"Lost" *
"Mad Men" *
"Sons of Anarchy"
"Treme"

KEEP READING - THERE'S MORE

Our Emmy gurus Robert "Rob L" Licuria (Awards Heaven) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum mostly agree when handicapping the race for best supporting actress in a drama series. Also see their predictions for these races: lead drama actor, best drama actress, best supporting drama actor,  best drama series, best comedy series, best lead comedy actor, supporting comedy actor.

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1. Elisabeth Moss ("Mad Men")
2. Rose Byrne ("Damages")
3. Chloe Sevigny ("Big Love")
4. Khandi Alexander ("Treme")
5. Christine Baranski ("The Good Wife")
6. Cherry Jones ("24")

Alternates -- Sandra Oh ("Grey's Anatomy"), Chandra Wilson ("Grey's Anatomy")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: This category is WIDE OPEN for new nominees with the loss of both "In Treatment" ladies. One of the wisest decisions I have ever heard was the one made by Elisabeth Moss to move from lead to supporting. Not only will she be nominated, but she is now the favorite to win.

Rose Byrne should also be back from last year's nominees since she is almost a co-lead on her show and stands her ground with Glenn Close. Chloe Sevigny is coming off a recent Golden Globe win and probably gets her first nomination for "Big Love." Khandi Alexander is getting some of the best reviews of her career, so here's hoping she receives the first of many awards over the next few months and years.

Christine Baranski has earned several Emmy nominations due to her over-the-top acting style, so I think she will pick up another this year. Last year's winner Cherry Jones might be snubbed based on lack of material most of this season, but she might just sneak into the category once again.

BEST SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Elisabeth Moss ("Mad Men")
2. Rose Byrne ("Damages")
3. Chloe Sevigny ("Big Love")
4. Christina Hendricks ("Mad Men")
5. Sandra Oh ("Grey's Anatomy")
6. Chandra Wilson ("Grey's Anatomy")

Alternates: Katey Sagal ("Sons of Anarchy"), Khandi Alexander ("Treme")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: Moss has smartly moved to supporting this year, which almost seals the deal as far as a nomination is concerned. Byrne should return as well, and will fight it out with Moss for the crown, I think.

HBO shipped its Emmy campaign box to the 14,000 members of the TV academy a week or two earlier than usual, this one arriving in early April. In addition to the box with two booklets (one for DVDs of TV series, one for specials/movies/docus), a separate package was shipped containing three DVDs of the full miniseries "The Pacific." Not included were some shows that don't air till after the packages shipped. On May 5, HBO will send voters an additional package containing DVDs of "You Don't Know Jack" (Al Pacino as Dr. Jack Kevorkian), "The Special Relationship" (Michael Sheen and Dennis Quaid as British Prime Minister Tony Blair and U.S. President Bill Clinton) and Bill Maher's special "I'm Not Wrong."

Compare this year's Emmy box to the ones shipped in 2009, 2008 and 2007. Read the opinions of our forum posters to this year's box here.

BOX 1 CONTENTS: TV SERIES

"BORED TO DEATH"
"The Case of the Missing Screenplay"
"The Case of the Beautiful Blackmailer"
"Take a Drive"

"BIG LOVE"
"Strange Bedfellows"
"The Mighty and Strong

"CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM"
"Vehicular Fellatio"
"The Reunion"
"Denise Handicapped"
"The Bare Midriff"
"The Table Read"
"Seinfeld"

"ENTOURAGE"
"The Sorkin Notes"
"Scared Straight"
"Give a Little Bit"

"HOW TO MAKE IT IN AMERICA"
"Pilot"
"Crisp"

"HUNG"
"Pilot"
"The Pickle Jar or Twice as Fat"
"A … and a Dream or Fight the Honey"

"THE LIFE AND TIMES OF TIM"
"Tim's Beard/ Unjustly Neglected Drama"
"Pharmaceutical Sales/ Rep Gone Wild/ Amy's Got a Gun"
"London Calling/ Novelist"

"REAL TIME WITH BILL MAHER"
"July 31, 2009: Niall Ferguson, Rachel Maddow, Joe Queenan, Jeff Sharlet, Michael Ware"
"Sept. 25, 2009: Paul Krugman, Michael Moore, Former Gov. Eliot Spitzer, John Waters"

"THE RICKY GERVAIS SHOW"
"Space Monkey"
"Knob at Night"
"Charity"

"TREME"
"Do You Know What It Means"
"Meet de Boys on the Battlefront"

"TRUE BLOOD"
"Shake and Fingerpop"
"I Will Rise Up"

BOX 2 CONTENTS: MOVIES, SPECIALS, FAMILY, DOCUMENTARIES
"Temple Grandin"
"The 25th Anniversary Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Concert"
"Wanda Sykes: I'ma Be Me"
"Robin Williams: Weapons of Self Destruction"
"George Lopez: Tall, Dark & Chicano"
"A Family Is a Family Is a Family: A Rosie O'Donnell Celebration"
"Terror in Mumbai"
"Teddy: In His Own Words"
"By the People: The Election of Barack Obama"
"Schmatta: Rags to Riches to Rags"
"A Dog Year"

SEE MORE PHOTOS - CLICK HERE

• The Golden Globe and SAG winner "Glee" returned to the Fox lineup Tuesday night and made good use of lead-in "American Idol," nearly doubling its audience from last fall. The tuneful series, which had been off the air since December, drew 13.7 million viewers, compared with an average of 7.7 million for its first 13 episodes. Capping off the telecast was a sneak peek from next week's episode -- the video "Vogue" -- with sure-to-be Emmy nominee Jane Lynch re-creating Madonna's iconic 1990 hit, down to every last hand gesture and pose.

• HBO is certainly confident in the prospects for "Treme," which it renewed for a second season just two days after the premiere episode aired to an audience of 1.4 million on Sunday night. This critically acclaimed series about life in post-Katrina New Orleans may help the paycaster become a major player again in the Emmy race for best drama series. Since "The Sopranos" won the trophy in 2007 for its final season, HBO has nabbed only one nomination in the category, with "Big Love" losing to AMC's "Mad Men" last year.

• Mexico's version of the Oscars, the Ariels, also honored a female director for the first time, as "Five Days Without Nora" from Mariana Chenillo won seven awards Tuesday night, including best picture, original screenplay, actor (Fernando Lujan) and supporting actress (Angelina Palaez). While Chenillo won the award for best first work, veteran helmer Carlos Carrera took home best director for "Backyard," which also won best actress for Asur Zagada. Another first film, "Meet the Head of Juan Perez" by Emilio Portes, won supporting actor (Jose Sefami) and three technical awards. THR

• "South Park" airs its 200th episode Wednesday and will once more mock all of the celebrities it has skewered over the years. Creators Matt Stone and Trey Parker have a lot to celebrate besides reaching this production milestone. They have done quite well with the Emmys over the years, winning three of their eight bids for animated program of less than one hour (2005, 2007, 2009) as well as another in 2008 for an extended version of the show. Now they are teaming up with Tony-winning composer Robert Lopez ("Avenue Q") for the new Broadway musical "The Book of Mormon," which is slated to open next March. Jason Moore -- a Tony nominee for directing "Avenue Q," which won the 2004 best musical Tony Award -- will helm this production in conjunction with Parker, who, by the by, was a 1999 Oscar nominee along with composer Marc Shaiman for a ditty they composed for the "South Park" movie.

• New tuner "The Addams Family" may have hit a false note with the critics last week, but as Patrick Healy reports, the cash registers have been ringing ever since. "The show sold $851,000 in tickets last weekend on top of a $15 million sales advance, huge figures for a new Broadway run, and all but guaranteeing that it will be hard to snag a pair of good orchestra seats until fall. After five months of well-publicized creative difficulties for the show, this seeming paradox amounts to a theater world version of the golden fleece: the critic-proof smash." Whether it will win over Tony voters as well will be revealed on May 4, when nominations for the 64th annual awards are announced. NEW YORK TIMES

• Two Tony Awards winners -- Anika Noni Rose ("Caroline or Change") and Michael Cerveris ("Assassins") -- are to co-host the 55th annual edition of the Village Voice Obie awards on May 17 at Manhattan's Webster Hall. These kudos, founded in 1955, are unique among the Gotham theater kudos in that they celebrate both off- and off-off-Broadway productions.

• Oscar champ Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener") has proved she will tackle any part, no matter the challenge. She just swept the West End theater awards for her acclaimed performance as  Blanche DuBois in a revival of "A Streetcar Named Desire." Now comes word, via Nicole Sperling, that she is to play Jacqueline Kennedy in "Jackie," a biopic helmed by her fiancee, Darren Aronofsky ("The Wrestler"), from a script by Noah Oppenheim. Seven of the last 10 women to prevail in the lead actress race at the Oscars did so by playing real-life roles. This film will chronicle the four days following the assassination of John F. Kennedy in November 1963. No doubt Weisz wishes the just-announced September 2011 release of an oral history by the former first lady was available now. ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY

• The International Emmys bestowed prizes for digital content on Monday at MIP. As with the program awards, Britain dominated here too, winning both the fiction prize for "Primeval Evolved," an online companion to the now-canceled ITV series, and the nonfiction award for the Open University Web documentary "Virtual Revolution." New Zealand took home its first international Emmy for the interactive online children's mystery series "Reservoir Hill."

• The Razzies have not only announced the date for their awardsfest next year -- Feb. 26 -- but also the news that the ceremony may finally be shown on TV. Razzie chief John Wilson issued this statement: "With Sandra Bullock having just followed in the footsteps of Halle Berry, Bill Cosby and Ben Affleck to good-naturedly accept a Razzie statuette, the Golden Raspberry Award Foundation is exploring the possibility of a first-ever television broadcast of their award ceremonies next spring as well as developing other Razzie-branded entertainment properties." Eric Ortner will produce the award show for potential TV airing.

• Add Oscar-winning helmer Martin Scorsese ("The Departed") to the growing list of converts to the 3-D process for making movies. Tatiana Siegel reports that the veteran filmmaker will use the technology for his next project, "The Invention of Hugo Cabret." This adaptation of Brian Selznick's bestselling children's book -- set to begin production in June with a script by John Logan ("The Aviator") -- is slated for a Christmas 2011 release. VARIETY

Top photo: Jane Lynch in "Glee." Credit: Fox

Middle photo: "South Park" production still. Credit: Comedy Central

Bottom photo: Rachel Weisz at the 2005 Academy Awards. Credit: AMPAS

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Looks like "Treme" may help HBO to become a major player in the Emmy race for best drama series again. Ever since "The Sopranos" won the trophy after its final year, HBO has nabbed only one nomination in the category — "Big Love" last year. It lost to AMC's "Mad Men."

The L.A. Times not only gives "Treme" a tremendous review, but also an operatically boisterous reception. Mary McNamara says the creators of the gritty series about post-Katrina New Orleans "have proved that television as an art form can not only rival Dickens, but it also can hold its own against Wagner."

The New York Times says, " 'Treme' is a work of imagination that seeks to reacquaint the world with a struggling city’s reality."

The program's shot at being nominated for best drama series is bolstered by two factors: It's debuting so prominently during the home stretch of Emmy eligibility (which ends May 31), and there are now six or seven nominee slots in the category instead of the usual five.

Some "Treme" stars are top rivals for other Emmys: Wendell Pierce (lead drama actor),
Melissa Leo (lead actress), John Goodman (supporting actor) and Khandi Alexander (supporting actress).

If "Treme" does hit the Emmy jackpot, it'll be payback time for its creators, whose "The Wire" suffered shocking Emmy snubs despite receiving repeated raves from TV critics.

Photo: HBO

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Forecasting the Emmy race for best drama actor, our forum moderators Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) agree on five contenders for the six nomination spots: Simon Baker ("The Mentalist"), Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Jon Hamm ("Mad Men"), Hugh Laurie ("House M.D.") and the winner for the last two years Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad"). Boomer picks Wendell Pierce ("Treme") for the last spot; Rob opts for Bill Paxton ("Big Love"). Both agree that newcomer Timothy Olyphant ("Justified") poses a serious threat, but he can't count on an Emmy bid.

Also check out Rob and Boomer's predix for best drama series and comedy series.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR: BOOMER'S PREDIX
1. Michael C. Hall ("Dexter")
2. Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad")
3. Jon Hamm ("Mad Men")
4. Hugh Laurie ("House")
5. Simon Baker ("The Mentalist")
6. Wendell Pierce ("Treme")

Alternates -- Bill Paxton ("Big Love"), Timothy Olyphant ("Justified")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: I can't imagine a scenario where Michael C. Hall, Bryan Cranston, Jon Hamm and Hugh Laurie are snubbed this year. In fact, if Hall submits correctly he is probably the front-runner to win based on the best-reviewed season of "Dexter" yet and recent Golden Globe and SAG wins.  Simon Baker continues to headline one of the highest-rated dramas on TV, so he should be safe. It is that tricky sixth slot that is hardest to predict since 2009 nominee Gabriel Byrne did not have episodes airing this season. The best bet is most likely Bill Paxton, a very popular actor on one of last year's drama series nominees ("Big Love"), but I will go out on a limb and say that "Treme" from HBO is going to be a major player this year in many categories.  Wendell Pierce could be part of that awards wave.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR: ROB'S PREDIX
1. Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad")
2. Jon Hamm ("Mad Men")
3. Michael C. Hall ("Dexter")
4. Hugh Laurie ("House")
5. Simon Baker ("The Mentalist")
6. Bill Paxton ("Big Love")

Alternates: Kiefer Sutherland ("24"), Timothy Olyphant ("Justified")

ROB'S COMMENTARY: The top four above appear to be almost guaranteed a slot at this point, with last year's surprise newcomer (Simon Baker) poised to make a return appearance. The sixth contender is a bit of a toss-up, and I'm banking on Bill Paxton to finally break through the pack. He'll have to get past multiple past nominee (and swan song contender) Kiefer Sutherland, as well as Timothy Olyphant for his raved-about performance in the FX freshman series "Justified." Outside shots include Denis Leary ("Rescue Me") and perhaps even Matthew Fox ("Lost"). We are still not sure about where the "Parenthood" cast will submit, so Emmy fave Peter Krause remains on the sidelines for now.

Photos: Michael C. Hall (Showtime), Bryan Cranston (AMC)

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