Now that many Oscar contenders are being widely seen by media and industry wags, I think the race for best picture is becoming clearer. Here's my snapshot of the track as I see it now from my box seat at the Toronto International Film Festival. I won't get to see "The Social Network" until I return to New York on Thursday, but early reviews are in. And they're great, suggesting that we have an official front-runner.

BEST PICTURE
(Front-runners)
"127 Hours"
"Black Swan"
"Inception"
"The King's Speech"
"The Social Network"
"Toy Story 3"
"The Kids Are All Right"

(Possible)
"Blue Valentine"
"Hereafter"
"How to Train Your Dragon"
"Never Let Me Go"
"Secretariat"
"The Way Back"
"Winter's Bone"

MAJOR CONTENDERS STILL NOT SEEN:
"How Do You Know"
"The Fighter"
"For Colored Girls"
"Love and Other Drugs"
"True Grit"

Photos: "The Social Network" (Columbia), left, and "127 Hours" (Fox Searchlight)

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"That's it! The best actress race is already over!" gasped a notable Oscar-tracking journo after witnessing Natalie Portman's dazzling diva turn in Darren Aronofsky's ballet thriller, "Black Swan," at the Toronto International Film Festival.

I was equally wowed and tempted to agree with that Oscar assessment except for one cautious reminder. At this point on last year's calendar we didn't know that the eventual winners of the last Academy Awards for best actress and actor -- Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side") and Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart") -- were even in the running.

That said, it's still fun to make fierce pronouncements, so let's leap as boldly as Portman does on screen while she performs "Swan Lake": Yes, she's out front. Yes, Portman will be very hard to beat because she's got many strong advantages.

1) DIVA APPEAL: In "Black Swan," Portman gives in dance what many past winners did in song -- the full-throttle diva performance: Barbra Streisand ("Funny Girl"), Liza Minnelli ("Cabaret") and Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose"). Unfortunately, ballet has played only a minor role at Oscars past, so it's hard to look backward for guidance to what will happen ahead. "The Turning Point" spawned two best actress nominees (who probably canceled each other out in the voting), Shirley MacLaine and Anne Bancroft, but they played dancers past their prime, not bouncing ferociously and constantly on stage.

2) GET PHYSICAL: Throughout the two hours of "Black Swan," Portman gives an even more athletic performance than Hilary Swank did when boxing her way to an Oscar victory for "Million Dollar Baby."

3) THE BABE FACTOR: Those notoriously frisky good ol' boys in the motion picture academy have clearly turned the best actress competition into a beauty contest in recent years: Sandra Bullock ("Blind Side"), Charlize Theron ("Monster"), Nicole Kidman ("The Hours"), Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"), Julia Roberts ("Erin Brockovich"), Gwyneth Paltrow ("Shakespeare in Love") plus many more examples in between and earlier. Portman is knockout gorgeous in "Black Swan."

4) THE SEX FACTOR: Overt eroticism used to be a turnoff at the Oscars in more prudish times, but nowadays we're seeing those academy gents get excited by sexy roles. Some cynics say Kate Winslet ("The Reader") and Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball") wouldn't have won without their brazen sex scenes. In "Black Swan," Portman has steamy masturbation and lesbian scenes.

"Natalie Portman’s dazzling tour de force makes her an instant leading contender in every best-actress race," Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood) proclaimed about her performance in "Black Swan" after its premiere at the Telluride Film Festival.  The London Times decreed Portman so "astounding" in Darren Aronofky's ballet thriller that "awards are sure to follow."

Portman is so lovely that she could certainly fit this year's "The Babe Factor" at the Oscars, where the best-actress race has largely been a beauty pageant for more than a decade (Sandra Bullock, Marion Cotillard, Reese Witherspoon, Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron, Halle Berry, Julia Roberts, etc.). It can't hurt that she has a steamy lesbian scene in "Black Swan" that will surely get noticed by those notoriously frisky good ol' boys in the motion picture academy.

But is Portman really such a shoo-in for best actress? And what about "Black Swan" getting into the best picture race? Aronofky's "The Wrestler" didn't make the cut for best picture of 2008, but there were only five nominees back then.

Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood, Indiewire) includes "Black Swan" on her list of top 13 strongest rivals to be nominated for the top 10 best-pic slots, but she's not confident about its chances. She says, "I wonder how 'Black Swan' will fare on the academy side. It may be painful for older voters to watch" because of its violence on screen. Nonetheless, Thompson believes "actors may laud Portman."