You've already seen the Emmy predictions covering the top comedy races from me and our two experts Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Rob Licuria (AwardsHeaven). Now here's how we rank the major drama contests.

Photo: Jon Hamm in "Mad Men." Photo credit: AMC.

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No surprise that reigning country queen Taylor Swift is among the leading contenders in Tuesday's announcement of first-round nominees for the ninth annual CMT Music Awards. Swift landed three nominations, including bids for video of the year and female video for "You Belong to Me." Swift took home both of these awards last year for "Love Story" and in 2008 for "Our Song."

Taylor Swift is the only woman to win video of the year twice and is tied with Keith Urban ("Better Life," 2006; "Days Go By," 2005) and Toby Keith ("American Soldier," 2004; "Courtesy of the Red, White and Blue," 2003), both of whom are back in that race this year. Urban contends with "Til Summer Comes Around" while Keith vies with "American Ride."

Taylor Swift is also contending for collaborative video for her duet with Kellie Pickler on "Best Days of Your Life." Pickler picked up a female video nom as did Reba McEntire and Carrie Underwood. Underwood's video for "Cowboy Casanova" is also up for the top award, and her rendition of "Temporary Home" on the CMT show "Invitation Only" is nominated for the performance prize.

A trio of acts scored four nominations apiece -- Jason Aldean, Lady Antebellum and Sugarland. Aldean and Lady Antebellum both contend for video of the year for "The Truth" and "Need You Now," respectively. Sugarland was shut out of the top race, landing competing bids for duo video of the year ("Keep You," "Nightswimming/Joey") as well as two noms for their collaboration with the B-52s on "Love Shack," a highlight of last year's CMT Awards.

Brad Paisley is back in the hunt for his first video of the year win with a bid for "Welcome to the Future." Last year, Paisley was the big winner at the CMT Awards, taking home his first male video award ("Waiting on a Woman") plus laurels in two other categories: collaborative video ("Start a Band" with Keith Urban) and performance of the year ("Country Boy" with Alan Jackson, George Strait and Dierks Bentley).

Eight of the nine categories have eight contenders apiece. Online voting that runs till May 3 will winnow these to four finalists in each category, which will be announced May 11. Then another round of online voting through June 8 will determine the winners.

Voting for video of the year is different. There are 10 semifinalists, which will be cut down to a final five that will be revealed at the start of the awards ceremony airing live on CMT June 9 from Nashville's Bridgestone Arena. The winner of the top prize will be determined by votes cast online and via text message during the kudocast.

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 Photo: Taylor Swift performing on the 8th annual CMT Awards. Credit: CMT

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Taylor Swift and reigning champ Carrie Underwood face off against six male artists for the top prize at the 45th annual Academy of Country Music awards on April 18. Three of the men in the race are former winners of entertainer of the year -- Kenny Chesney (2004-2007), Toby Keith (2002, 2003) and George Strait (1989). Another two are multiple male vocalist of the year champs -- Brad Paisley (2006-2008) and Keith Urban (2004, 2005) -- while the final entry -- the Zac Brown Band -- are relative rookies. The ACM entertainer of the year will be determined by online voting as will the four newcomer awards.

Perennial ACM host Reba McEntire and Blake Shelton announced the nominations Tuesday morning on CBS' "The Early Show." McEntire -- the 1994 entertainer of the year -- contends this year for female vocalist, an award she has won seven times already. Shelton is vying for vocal event of the year for "Hillbilly Bone."

While Lady Antebellum did not earn an entertainer of the year bid, the group lead with seven other nominations including vocal group, album, single and song. Both Underwood and Miranda Lambert have six nominations while Swift has five.

Expect Swift -- who swept the CMAs last fall with four wins including the coveted entertainer of the year title -- to do just as well at the ACMs. In addition to her entertainer of the year bid, Swift contends for female vocalist and is up for three awards for "You Belong With Me" -- video of the year, song of the year performer and song of the year co-writer.

At last fall's CMAs, Swift ended the three-year reign of Kenny Chesney as the top entertainer. His loss there had been foretold by his defeat for the same award -- after four wins in a row -- at last spring's ACMs to Carrie Underwood. Underwood -- who co-hosted the CMA Awards -- had won female vocalist there for the previous three years but was bested by Swift.

Underwood has won that same award at the ACMs for the last three years and contends again this year. Her CMA co-host, Brad Paisley, won his third consecutive CMA male vocalist prize last fall and is defending his three-year winning streak at the ACMs.

Even the most die-hard country music fans have a tough time explaining the difference between the Country Music Assn. (CMA), which handed out awards last fall, and the Academy of Country Music (ACM), which passes out honors every spring. The only differences besides the dates are network affiliation and geography -- the CMA Awards air on ABC from Nashville; the ACM Awards are doled out on CBS from Las Vegas. Both awards are bestowed by industry organizations with many of the same voters and -- no surprise -- many of the same winners.

In the 45-year history of the ACM Awards, just 23 men and 24 women have won the vocalist prizes. And only 21 different acts have been named entertainer of the year. The CMAs are no different, with many of the champs there having won first at the ACM Awards or vice versa. Over 43 years, the CMA Awards has seen 23 men and 24 women take top vocal honors while 29 different acts have ranked as entertainer of the year.

For the full list of nominees, visit the ACM website.

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Photo: Reba McEntire and Blake Shelton. Credit: CBS

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Even the most die-hard country music fans have a tough time explaining the difference between the Country Music Assn. (CMA), which handed out awards Wednesday night, and the Academy of Country Music (ACM), which passes out honors every May. The only differences besides the dates are network affiliation and geography -- the CMA Awards air on ABC from Nashville while the ACM Awards are doled out on CBS from Las Vegas. Both awards are bestowed by industry organizations with many of the same voters and -- no surprise -- many of the same winners.

In the 45-year history of the ACM Awards, just 23 men and 24 women have won the vocalist prizes. And only 21 different acts have been named entertainer of the year. The CMAs are no different, with many of the champs there having won first at the ACM Awards or vice versa. Over 43 years, the CMA Awards have seen 23 men and 24 women take top vocal honors while 29 different acts have ranked as entertainer of the year.

Expect Taylor Swift -- who swept the CMAs this year with four wins including the coveted entertainer of the year title -- to do just as well at the next edition of the ACMs. At the CMAs, Swift beat three-time reigning entertainer of the year Kenny Chesney. His loss there was foretold by his defeat for the same award-- after four wins in a row -- at last May's ACMs, losing to Carrie Underwood.

Underwood -- who co-hosted the CMA Awards -- had won female vocalist there for the last three years, but was bested by Swift this year. However, her co-host, Brad Paisley, picked up his third consecutive male vocalist prize. And Underwood and Paisley have won for the last three years at the ACMs.

The CMA was founded first, in Nashville in 1958, just one year after the Grammy Awards parent organization, the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences, was formed in Los Angeles. The association's mission was to serve as an industry think tank and networking organization for Nashville music makers, not to present awards. The first country music kudos were bestowed in 1965 by the upstart new Country and Western Music Academy, formed one year earlier by country artists who had ditched honky-tonk Nashville for the glamour of Hollywood. That group eventually morphed into the ACM. In 1967, the CMA started passing out prizes too.

West Coasters like Merle Haggard dominated the early ACM awards, while Nashville faves Johnny Cash and Charlie Pride swept the CMAs. However, within a decade both groups were honoring the same artists with one exception -- Toby Keith, who's probably been punished by CMA members for not making Nashville his home.

Traditionally, the CMAs have more viewers than the ACMs, but both are so popular that they're aired during sweeps months, and sometimes one or both beat the Nielsen ratings scored by the Emmy Awards. Indeed, the popularity of the CMAs and ACMs ignited an explosion of award shows on TV.

Until 1970, the only major awardscasts were the Oscars, Emmys and Tonys. The Grammys only existed on TV in a rather dull, taped one-hour special billed as "Best on Record." When the CMAs nabbed a spot in prime time, NBC crammed it into its regular weekly "Kraft Music Hall."

Then, in 1971, the Grammys went live in a stand-alone awardscast. When Paul McCartney showed up to accept an award for the busted-up Beatles, the crowd and TV viewing audience went crazy, and ABC had a hit on its hands. Foolishly, however, the alphabet network gave up the broadcast rights to the Grammys just one year later when the recording academy wanted to move the show to Nashville.

CBS not only grabbed the rights to the Grammys but launched a live, stand-alone CMA show. The ACM awardscast was launched in 1972 too. Suddenly, there were three music-award shows on TV at the same time, and all of them scored socko ratings.

Wondering who'll triumph when the Academy of Country Music Awards are bestowed on Sunday (8 p.m. ET/ PT, CBS)? You'd be smart to heed the predix of Chris Willman. Chris has not only written professionally about the music biz for Entertainment Weekly, the L.A. Times and other leading media, but he feels special kinship with country tunes. Check out his book "Rednecks & Bluenecks: The Politics of Country Music" (New Press, 2007).

As a longtime pal to Gold Derby, Chris has written up his predix exclusively for you! I hope this doesn't smack of ingratitude, but I dare to challenge one of his forecasts, while admitting that the odds probably favor his view. Considering how Carrie Underwood keeps romping through the category for best female vocalist, she may seem likely to do so again, but I'm betting my ranch (if I had one, but I don't) on Taylor Swift. Yeah, yeah, Taylor Swift may be considered too young (she's 19) and new to the scene for such a lofty embrace from the industry establishment, but I think she's wowed us all with her serious chops (singer, musician, songwriter), sales, beauty and charm. And I mean WOW! But now let's pass off to what Chris thinks . . . .(Here is a full list of nominees per category to consult while reading.)

Imagine if "Slumdog Millionaire" won best picture… and then nothing else, or maybe one technical award. Impossible, right? Yet that's what we're faced with at the country awards shows every year. At the ACMs Sunday night, Kenny Chesney is a shoo-in to win entertainer of the year, the top prize. This will mark the fifth consecutive time he's picked it up. (He's also gotten that top honor at the competing CMA Awards four out of the last five years.) But it seems entirely possible that that's the only trophy he'll bring home this year. Chesney can't lose entertainer of the year, but he almost can't win anything else.

Last year, Chesney had 11 ACM nominations, but only walked away with two awards — one, of course, for entertainer of the year; the other was a shared award for vocal event of the year, for a song on which he had a cameo. This year, he only pulled in three nominations, for entertainer, male vocalist and vocal event. I don't think he has as good a shot at winning vocal event this year as last: His partnership with Mac McAnally on "Down the Road" seems destined to lose to "Start a Band," the Brad Paisley / Keith Urban collaboration. And Chesney is really the underdog in the male vocalist race, where he's lost to Paisley the last two years.

How is it that Chesney can win the top prize every year but lose the lesser male vocalist prize to Paisley every year? That may be a mystery, but it's not an unfathomable one. I think Paisley's sense of humor, songwriting and guitar chops, faithfulness to traditional country sounds, and, yes, even vocal ability make him a favorite in the industry. But as Chesney himself has said in award show press rooms, the entertainer of the year belt really goes to the person who is considered the biggest ambassador for country music in the wider world, pulling in the huge tour numbers and getting the most media attention. And that continues to be Chesney. No offense to Chesney, but voters tend to pick male vocalist on artistry and entertainer of the year on sheer numbers and mass-market palatability.

Kenny Chesney blasted the Academy of Country Music last year for allowing Internet voting to determine who would win the entertainer of the year, which he claimed for the fourth straight year. Now Chesney is back in that race this year. He competes against Brad Paisley, George Strait, Carrie Underwood and Keith Urban in nominations announced today. Not only is the ACM still allowing online voting, they're permitting fans to text their choice for this most prestigious of prizes during the live April 5 CBS telecast.

That new twist should make Kenny Chesney even madder. After all, backstage at last year's awards, Kenny Chesney fumed to reporters: "They took it from what the award really represents into a sweepstakes to see who can push people's buttons the hardest on the Internet. It's complete disrespect of the artist, what they've lowered it to. It really diminishes the integrity of the music that we're making. And I can say that because I won."

Yet last year, Chesney's official website and MySpace page both encouraged fans to vote for him — to "bring it home for KC." They provided links to the online voting. And at his official website today, there is an out-of-date link urging fans to vote for Chesney when the Great American Country music channel counted down the top 50 videos of 2008 — he ended up ranking 19th and 34th.

Photo: Allen J. Schaben/ L.A. Times

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At last night's CMA Awards, it came as no great surprise when Kenny Chesney won entertainer of the year for the fourth time in five years. After all, that top prize tends to reward the artist who's king of the road tour and CD sales. That's Kenny Chesney, who continues to be a top draw on the concert circuit, playing to more than a million people a year while racking up seven platinum albums in the last decade.

In a way, it was fitting that 1999 winner Shania Twain made the presentation. Like Twain, who counts only this one win among her 10 Country Music Assn. kudos nominations, Chesney has little hardware from the CMA beyond these four awards. He has amassed 29 nominations but has managed only three other wins — for recording and producing the 2004 album of the year "When the Sun Goes Down" and for his vocal collaboration last year on "Find Out Who Your Friends Are." Indeed, Chesney has lost male vocalist for seven years running.

The latter fact suggests one ominous possibility. Since the CMA award is the Oscar of the Nashville music scene, it seems to be saying something curious and revealing about what the industry secretly thinks of that beer-chuckin', back-slappin', girl-chasin' good ole boy: They respect Kenny Chesney as someone who can sell CDs and concert seats, but he's not really respected as a vocal artist.

Among those Chesney edged out for the entertainer prize last night were two men who have beaten him in that category: show co-host Brad Paisley, who repeated as male vocalist winner and three-time male vocalist champ Keith Urban, who interrupted Chesney's streak as entertainer of the year with a win in 2005. And while Chesney lost new artist of the year (then known as Horizon award) in 1999 to Jo Dee Messina, Paisley won in 2000, as did Urban the following year.

Chesney also triumphed over George Strait, a five-time male vocalist winner and entertainer of the year in 1989 and 1990. Last night, Strait had to be content with becoming the all-time CMA champ with 22 awards total (out of a staggering 75 nominations). He picked up four trophies as both artist and producer of the best single ("I Saw God Today") and best album of the year ("Troubadour"). While this was only his second single to win after 1996's "Check Yes or No," it was Strait's fifth win for an album after "It Just Comes Natural," 2007; "Carrying Your Love With Me," 1997; "Blue Clear Sky," 1996; and "Does Fort Worth Ever Cross Your Mind," 1985.

Even the most die-hard country music fans have trouble distinguishing between the awards bestowed tonight by the Country Music Assn. (CMA) and the Academy of Country Music (ACM) kudos handed out every May. Both prizes come from industry organizations with many of the same voters and, not surprisingly, many of the same winners.

Tonight's hosts — Brad Paisley and Carrie Underwood — were the top vocalists with both groups last year and are competing again this year. The chief differences between the two kudos: The CMAs are based in Nashville and the ceremony is telecast by ABC; the ACMs are based in Hollywood and the show is telecast on CBS. For a list of all the CMA nominees, click here.

Kenny Chesney has taken the top prize of entertainer of the year at the ACMs for four years running and at three of the last four CMAs, including the most recent two. Tonight Chesney competes against 2005 winner Keith Urban, veteran George Strait, hot duo Sugarland and Paisley. Todd Marten takes an in-depth look at this race over at his Pop & Hiss blog. As Todd points out, "touring success and mainstream appeal figures heavily into the prize, and Chesney, according to Pollstar, had the second-highest-grossing tour of 2007, behind only the Police. In July, Billboard speculated Chesney would be near the top again when 2008 figures were tallied." So there is little doubt who will win that CMA trophy again, eh?

While a dozen different prizes will be handed out tonight, the three-hour kudocast devotes a big chunk of time to performances. Among the roster of talent lined up are all five entertainer of the year nominees, as well as four of the female vocalist contenders (Underwood, Miranda Lambert, Martina McBride and Taylor Swift ), male vocalist nominee Alan Jackson (the other four nominees are entertainer of the year contenders), and all five new artist nominees (Jason Aldean, Rodney Atkins, Lady Antebellum, James Otto and Kellie Pickler).

When the CMA was founded 50 years ago in Nashville (one year after the Grammy Awards parent organization, the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences, was formed in Los Angeles), the association's mission was to serve as an industry think tank and networking organization for Nashville music makers, not to present awards. Then along came the upstart Country and Western Music Academy, formed in 1964 by country artists who had ditched honky-tonk Nashville for the glamour of Hollywood. That group, which eventually morphed into ACM, started handing out prizes the following year. The CMAs followed suit in 1967, showcasing country talent on NBC's "Kraft Music Hall."

At that time, the only live kudocasts were the Oscars, Emmys and Tonys. The Grammys were presented in a rather dull, taped one-hour special billed as "Best on Record." Then in 1971, the Grammys went live and Paul McCartney showed up to accept an award for the recently busted-up Beatles. Both the crowd and the TV viewing audience went crazy and ABC had an unexpected hit on its hands. Foolishly, however, the alphabet network gave up the broadcast rights one year later when the Grammys wanted to move their show to Nashville. CBS not only grabbed the rights, but also launched a live, stand-alone CMA show. And the ACM award show also began airing in 1972. Suddenly, there were three live music-award shows on TV and all of them scored socko ratings.

Kenny Chesney may have blasted the Academy of Country Music for allowing online voting to determine entertainer of the year, but his record label sure encouraged his fans to get him that fourth win in a row. As Joanne points out in the comment section of our original item, "What a hypocrite! Go to his website where he encourages people to vote for him. In bold blue letters. If he thought this system was wrong, why did he support it on his website?"

Backstage at the ACMs on Sunday night, Chesney was singing a different tune. "They took it from what the award really represents into a sweepstakes to see who can push people's buttons the hardest on the Internet," he fumed to reporters in the pressroom. "It's complete disrespect of the artist, what they've lowered it to. It really diminishes the integrity of the music that we're making. And I can say that because I won."

Kenny Chesney's plea to fans to vote for his ACM award is no longer posted at his site since the contest is over, but, as Oskar Garcia of the AP reports, "Chesney's MySpace page still carried a large banner Monday urging fans to 'bring it home for KC,' with links to the academy's online page and messages from fans lower on the page. "

If Chesney did not know about this online effort by his record label, how can he now keep this award? And if he did know, should he consider a second career as an actor?

Kenny Chesney took the Academy of Country Music Awards back out behind the woodpile to give 'em the whoopin' they deserve — well, actually, backstage at the ceremony in Vegas.

Hooray for the good ole boy! This year ACM chiefs pulled a dumb stunt by having website users pick the winner of the award for entertainer of the year.

That's the equivalent to the Oscars handing over the decision on what wins best picture to anonymous hooligans visiting Oscars.org. (I know, I know, sometimes ya gotta wonder if they wouldn't come up with a better picture.) But, hey, who do the ACMs think they are? The People's Choice Awards? MTV Awards? Kid's Choice? "American Idol"? Those are all decided by Internet fans.

The ACMs are supposed to matter because they're a peer-group prize bestowed — chiefly — by West Coast-based pros in the country-music biz. By contrast, that other, similar trophy doled out by the Country Music Association has its home in Nashville. The two kudos used to honor different artists, but nowadays they tend to mirror each other six months apart (ACMs aired during May TV sweeps; CMAs during November TV sweeps).

"They took it from what the award really represents into a sweepstakes to see who can push people's buttons the hardest on the Internet," Chesney fumed to reporters back in the press room. "It's complete disrespect of the artist, what they've lowered it to. It really diminishes the integrity of the music that we're making. And I can say that because I won."

Of course, he didn't say nuthin' like on stage when he won. Instead, he gushed: "This one is really actually special because long before I had a hit record, the fans always came to the shows. And I want to thank you guys for voting and for being there for me. " If Kenny hadn't been all nice and thankful at the podium, his daddy might've taken Kenny back behind the woodpile.

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