While most Emmy pundits correctly forecast the top races for best comedy and drama series, movie, mini and lead acting in movies/mini, we botched so many others. What happened?

Some pundits like me put too much emphasis on evaluating the episodes submitted to Emmy voters as examples of their best work. Usually, the longest episodes win, but appearing in two-hour specials of "Monk" and "House M.D." didn't help Tony Shalhoub or Hugh Laurie. Instead, another voter bias paid off for Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory"): appearing drunk in "The Pants Alternative." Hollywood voters are suckers for that — Jeff Bridges just nabbed an Oscar for the awful "Crazy Heart" to prove it. Perhaps the theme of substance abuse helped Bryan Cranston to prevail for a third year in a row as crystal-meth cook in "Breaking Bad." Is it a coincidence that Edie Falco triumphed as a pill-gobbling hospital worker in "Nurse Jackie"?

Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer") had the strongest episode submission among all nominees for best drama actress, but we made the mistake of believing that buzz and momentum would carry along Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife") after previously winning the Golden Globe and SAG Award (and an Emmy victory in 1995 for "E.R."). Ditto for Globe and SAG champ Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), who gave judges the powerhouse season finale episode but still wasn't enough to stop the Cranston momentum.

However, "The Amazing Race" Emmy juggernaut finally stalled. It didn't get derailed by "American Idol," as I had predicted, but by "Top Chef." That was one of the biggest shocks of the night along with Archie Panjabi's victory as supporting drama actress for "The Good Wife."

Entertainment Weekly's Mike Ausiello and I mostly agree on who'll win Emmys in the top series races Aug. 29. However, there are significant differences in our rankings per category, and there is drastic disagreement over how we size up the contest for best comedy actor. I've got Tony Shalhoub ("Monk") in first place, Mike's got him in last!

Note: My predix are still a bit tentative. I haven't seen a few of the episodes submitted to Emmy judges by nominees as examples of their best work. When I finish up that viewing in a few days, I may make a few changes. Mike may want to make a few last-minute switcheroos too? Meantime, thank you, Mike, for piping in.

Photo: Academy of Television Arts & Sciences

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Never mind which TV shows and stars are favored by Emmy voters. Yahoo measured the lists of Emmy nominees according to which ones were searched most by their Web browsers during the eligibility period spanning June 1, 2009, to May 31, 2010.

TOP SEARCHED BEST SERIES, DRAMA

1. "Lost"

2. "True Blood"

3. "Dexter"

4. "Mad Men"

5. "Breaking Bad"

6. "The Good Wife"
 


TOP SEARCHED BEST SERIES, COMEDY
1. "Glee"

2. "The Office"

3. "Modern Family"

4. "30 Rock"

5. "Nurse Jackie"

6. "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
 

TOP SEARCHED BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
1. Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
2. Hugh Laurie, "House"

3. Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"

4. Matthew Fox, "Lost"

5. Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"

6. Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"

• Three-time Emmy champ Laura Linney is the subject of a lengthy profile in this Sunday's magazine section of the New York Times. Among the highlights of the piece: when writer Frank Bruni accompanied Linney to a rehearsal for the recent Tony Awards where the nominated actress clearly was in her element. "'You just have to see this!' she exclaimed at one point, tugging me backstage. 'It’s just too much fun, all the different casts bumping into each other.'" Along the way, Bruni also visited Linney on the set of her new Showtime series "The Big C," which is set to debut Aug. 16. This first regular TV role for the versatile talent sees her playing a teacher who must learn what is important in her life when told she has terminal cancer. The paycaster has proved to be a Hollywood haven for actresses like Linney, and it is currently showcasing Emmy nominees Toni Collette ("The United States of Tara") and Edie Falco ("Nurse Jackie"). NEW YORK TIMES

• The tuner "Next to Normal" -- which won this year's Pulitzer prize for drama -- welcomed three new cast members Tuesday. Husband and wife Marin Mazzie and Jason Daniely replace Tony winner Alice Ripley and Brian D'Arcy James as the couple coping with her mental illness, while understudy Meghann Fay is permanently stepping in for Tony nominee Jennifer Damiano as the less-than-understanding teenage daughter. PLAYBILL

• CBS has revealed that four of the companies to get a visit from an "Undercover Boss" in the upcoming second season are NASCAR, DirecTV, Great Wolf Resorts and Chiquita Brands. "We're thrilled with this season's new batch of bosses," said the show's creator and executive producer Stephen Lambert. They are NASCAR's senior vice president and chief marketing officer Steve Phelps; Mike White, chairman, president and CEO of DirecTV; Chiquita Brands chairman and CEO Fernando Aguirre; and CEO Kimberly Schaefer of Great Wolf Resorts. The hit show is in contention for best reality series at the upcoming Emmy Awards.

• Hanh Nguyen does a deft job live blogging the lively discussion of "The Big Bang Theory" cast and creators that kicked off the annual TV critics confab Wednesday. Among the tasty tidbits is one from Emmy nominee Jim Parsons, who said he loves Comic-Con, "but seeing the thousands of Sheldon t-shirts was a little disturbing." And when asked about the show's fans, he replied, "They're the sweetest, least psychotic bunch of people I've ever met." ZAP 2 IT

• Our good friend Mike Ausiello caught up with the "Big Bang" gang at Comic-Con last week for a video interview that was punctuated throughout with merriment. Among the subjects covered in the lively conversation were the Emmy snub for best comedy series, upcoming plot points and ongoing salary negotiations. ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY

• Joel Keller chats with Emmy winner Felicity Huffman on the set of "Desperate Housewives." The one-time Oscar lead actress nominee ("Transamerica") admitted, "I was anticipating doing more movies. I got a lot of movie scripts for a while... I don't really get them anymore." And she said, "Independent films have taken a dive. They're becoming harder and harder to do and somewhat extinct because there's a glut on the market, and they're just so hard to get funding. So I feel like the golden age of independent movies, at least the way they were being done, is over." TV SQUAD

• And our great pal Ray Richmond sat down with "Housewives" creator Marc Cherry, who said "he could see handing off his 6-year-old baby to someone else to run after the coming 7th season. In fact he thought it was likely, as he’s now penning a pilot for a potential new ABC series that he hopes will be up and running by next June. He wouldn't elaborate on what the pilot is about, only noting it 'will not be set in suburbia.'" Cherry also revealed to Ray, "I’ve got a contract that keeps me around ABC for a few more years. I hope (Housewives will be around) for a couple of more seasons, and my thing is I always will be executive producer and consultant on the show. It’s my baby. I can’t let go. I have control issues. They can’t totally get rid of me." DEADLINE

• Donna Hughes previews the just-released title track from the upcoming film "Country Strong." The ditty is done by Oscar champ Gwyneth Paltrow who stars as fallen singer Kelly Canter. As Donna notes, "The actress is no stranger to the music scene, having charted a hit single with Huey Lewis on a remake of 'Cruisin' from the film 'Duets' in 2000. She also happens to be married to Coldplay's Chris Martin." Country crooners Vince Gill and Patty Griffin perform background vocals on this debut single. Though the film won't be out till Dec. 22, the soundtrack is set for release on Oct. 26.  While there is no word yet on the full track listing, another singing star -- Tim McGraw -- appears in the film as Canter's husband/manager. He sets out to resurrect her career with the help of a songwriter she meets in rehab. THE BOOT

• Anne Thompson thinks that "Get Low" -- the new Robert Duvall picture about a hermit re-entering 1930s society -- "should be a soft lob down the middle for Oscar voters." As Anne notes, the film, which she saw at last year's Toronto filmfest, is doing well with the mainstream critics and she planned on attending Tuesday's premiere at the academy which was chronicled by our team. THE ENVELOPE

Photos, from top: Laura Linney in "The Big C" promotional still. Credit: Showtime; "The Big Bang Theory" 3rd season Blu-Ray cover art. Credit: Warner Home Video; Gwyneth Paltrow in "Country Strong." Credit: Screen Gems.

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While our Emmy experts Chris "Boomer" Beachum and Robert "Rob L" Licuria (Awardsheaven.net) are divided as to which guy will get an Emmy for guesting on a comedy series, they agree that today's "it girl" Betty White is a sure thing to win the guest actress race for hosting "Saturday Night Live." Indeed, there was so much Emmy love for this episode of the late-night staple that it also got nominations for directing, writing, art direction, hair styling, lighting and makeup.

Boomer and Rob each assess the state of this race below and have already made forecasts, as did I, for best comedy series as well as lead actor and actress.

GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY: BOOMER'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1. Betty White, "Saturday Night Live" ("Host: Betty White")
2. Tina Fey, "Saturday Night Live" ("Host: Tina Fey")
3. Kristin Chenoweth, "Glee" ("The Rhodes Not Taken")
4. Elaine Stritch, "30 Rock" ("The Moms")
5. Christine Baranski, "The Big Bang Theory" ("The Maternal Congruence")
6. Kathryn Joosten, "Desperate Housewives" ("The Chase")
7. Jane Lynch, "Two and a Half Men" ("818-JKLPUZO")

BOOMER'S COMMENTARY: This Emmy Award was practically won weeks before the episode even aired! Most everybody was excited about Betty White hosting "Saturday Night Live" when it was first considered and then announced, but she surpassed all of the lofty expectations with the help of the writers, director, cast, returning "SNL" stars and her own funny, funny, funny performance. It was truly one of the most incredible performances I have ever seen on "SNL" or any variety series!

Along with White, this category is completely loaded down with past Emmy winners in every spot except for Jane Lynch (who will most likely pick up an Emmy for "Glee" in another category). Tina Fey won this same category last year for a return trip to her SNL roots. She again gets to play Sarah Palin (as she did last year with her win) plus quite a few other characters in various sketches. The "Brownie Husband" commercial alone might sway the voters, but Betty White is just too much to overcome.

Kristin Chenoweth has the perfect role of a former glee club star and does an especially good job throughout her episode (both acting and singing). Elaine Stritch always elevates every moment of her time on "30 Rock," and this time is no exception. She has also won an Emmy for this role, but her screentime is more limited than for her winning year.

While I love Christine Baranski as Leonard's mother on "The Big Bang Theory," I thought her performance last year was better written and developed. Both Kathryn Joosten and Jane Lynch are good but must bring up the rear for this overloaded category this year.

GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY: ROB'S PREDIX
(Ranked by likelihood to win)
1. Betty White, "Saturday Night Live" ("Host: Betty White")
2. Christine Baranski, "The Big Bang Theory" ("The Maternal Congruence")
3. Kristin Chenoweth, "Glee" ("The Rhodes Not Taken")
4. Tina Fey, "Saturday Night Live" ("Host: Tina Fey")
5. Elaine Stritch, "30 Rock" ("The Moms")
6. Kathryn Joosten, "Desperate Housewives" ("The Chase")
7. Jane Lynch, "Two and a Half Men" ("818-JKLPUZO")

ROB'S COMMENTARY:I am still not sure why Jane Lynch or Kathryn Joosten were nominated in this category. Both excellent actresses and great roles, but this year and in the episodes they have submitted, it’s just not enough for what I consider to be an otherwise competitive category. Lynch has about three and a half minutes in one scene to shine, and although she has some great one liners, she doesn’t move from her seat and barely registers any other emotion other than a more toned-down Sue Sylvester (her character from "Glee"). This nomination is a bit of overkill I think. Ditto for Joosten, who is charming and ultimately heartbreaking as an old gal diagnosed with cancer. True-to-life sentiment and the high regard that voters hold for Ms. Joosten got her in this race, but I can’t see it being her winning here again this year.

OK, I was behaving quite cheekily when I promised 100% accuracy with my Emmy nominations predictions, but I did score quite well: 79%. Of my 101 predix, 80 proved to be correct. There turned out to be two more nominations in these categories, thanks to accountants granting an extra slot in squeaker contests. Below is the breakdown. See the list of nominees here.

X = wrong prediction

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Breaking Bad"
"Damages" - X
"Dexter"
"Mad Men"
"The Good Wife"
"Lost"

Nominee: "True Blood"

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"The Big Bang Theory" - X
"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
"Family Guy" - X
"Glee"
"Modern Family"
"30 Rock"

Nominees: "Nurse Jackie," "The Office"

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Simon Baker ("The Mentalist") - X
Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad")
Michael C. Hall ("Dexter")
Jon Hamm ("Mad Men")
Hugh Laurie ("House")
Timothy Olyphant ("Justified") - X

Nominees: Matthew Fox ("Lost"), Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights")

Entertainment Weekly's Mike Ausiello really knows his Emmy stuff. I shouldn't pick on him, but, hey, we're all killing time waiting for nominations to be announced Thursday morning. We're in need of interim entertainment. Mike just issued his predictions — like a tempting target. Mike and I are good pals, so I'm sure he won't mind me taking aim with nuclear weapons of mass destruction.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Breaking Bad" — Mike, Tom
"Damages" — Tom
"Dexter" — Mike, Tom
"Mad Men" — Mike, Tom
"The Good Wife" — Mike, Tom
"Lost" — Mike, Tom
"True Blood" — Mike

Oh, come on, Mike! You know that Emmy voters sleep with garlic cloves around their necks and silver crosses in their fists. Vampire shows never get close. Remember poor "Buffy the Vampire Slayer"?  That said, I admit "Damages" might also be among the walking dead. It was nominated last year but has been off the air for months and now is canceled. Instead, if we're both wrong, 2009 nominees "House M.D." or "Big Love" might return. Or else newbies "Sons of Anarchy" or "Treme" might sneak in.

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"The Big Bang Theory" — Tom
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" — Tom
"Entourage" — Mike
"Family Guy" — Mike, Tom
"Glee" — Mike, Tom
"Modern Family" — Mike, Tom
"The Office" — Mike
"30 Rock" — Mike, Tom

Mike's playing it safe by sticking with perennial nominees "Entourage" and "The Office," and he may be right. But I'm sure he's wrong to ditch "Curb Your Enthusiasm," which has been nominated every year of its eligibility. (It sat out last year's derby.) "Big Bang Theory" wasn't nominated for its first two seasons, but that was also true of "Scrubs," "Two and a Half Men" and "Everybody Loves Raymond," which finally broke through for Season 3. My theory is that super-hit "Bang" will finally explode.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Simon Baker ("The Mentalist") — Mike, Tom
Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") — Mike, Tom
Michael C. Hall ("Dexter") — Mike, Tom
Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") — Mike, Tom
Hugh Laurie ("House") — Mike, Tom
Timothy Olyphant ("Justified") — Mike, Tom

A temporary truce is called in this category, where we agree 100%!

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close ("Damages") — Mike, Tom
Sally Field ("Brothers and Sisters") — Mike
Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU") — Mike, Tom
January Jones ("Mad Men") — Mike, Tom
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife") — Mike, Tom
Katey Sagal ("Sons of Anarchy") — Tom
Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer") — Mike, Tom

I may have to surrender here. Mike knows that TV academy members are suckers for film stars, especially Oscar winners like Sally Field, so odds are good that she'll be nominated again. I'm betting on the crazed fan support behind the highest-rated show in FX network history to carry Sagal.

Here's who I predict will score bids when Emmy Awards nominations are unveiled Thursday morning:

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Breaking Bad"
"Damages"
"Dexter"
"Mad Men"
"The Good Wife"
"Lost"

ALTERNATES: "Big Love," "Friday Night Lights," "House M.D.," "Sons of Anarchy," "Treme"

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"The Big Bang Theory"
"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
"Family Guy"
"Glee"
"Modern Family"
"30 Rock"

ALTERNATES: "Community," "How I Met Your Mother," "Entourage," "Nurse Jackie," "The Office," "Parks and Recreation," "Weeds"

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Simon Baker ("The Mentalist")
Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad")
Michael C. Hall ("Dexter")
Jon Hamm ("Mad Men")
Hugh Laurie ("House")
Timothy Olyphant ("Justified")

ALTERNATES: Matt Bomer ("White Collar"), Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights"), Matthew Fox ("Lost"), Peter Krause ("Parenthood"), Denis Leary ("Rescue Me"), Bill Paxton ("Big Love"), Wendell Pierce ("Treme"), Kiefer Sutherland ("24")

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close ("Damages")
Mariska Hargitay ("Law & Order: SVU")
January Jones ("Mad Men")
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife")
Katey Sagal ("Sons of Anarchy")
Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer")

ALTERNATES: Sally Field ("Brothers and Sisters"), Anna Gunn ("Breaking Bad"), Holly Hunter ("Saving Grace"), Melissa Leo ("Treme"), Anna Paquin ("True Blood")

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Steve Carell ("The Office")
Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock")
Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm")
Matthew Morrison ("Glee")
Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory")
Tony Shalhoub ("Monk")

ALTERNATES: David Duchovny ("Californication"), Joel McHale ("Community"), Thomas Jane ("Hung"), Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men")

Recently, we tried to work out glitches of this new video chat system as I gabbed Emmys separately with our forums moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) or Chris "Boomer" Beachum. Now — presto — all three of us are together as we dish the contest for best comedy series. Beware: Chris and Rob are fanboys of "The Big Bang Theory" and unabashedly cheer it on while I am the opposite of that when it comes to "Flight of the Conchords," but they give me a good pummeling for it. Should we even bother having this slugfest? "30 Rock" has won for the past two years and may be irresistible again to members of an academy who work in the TV industry and take special delight in how cleverly it skewers, and illuminates, their biz.

PART ONE

PART TWO

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Somehow I've managed to coax six suckers brilliant kudos seers to join me in predicting the Emmy nominations that will be announced this Thursday morning: Michael Ausiello (EW.com), Matt Webb Mitovich (TVGuide.com), Marc Berman (MediaWeek), Ray Richmond (Hollywood Reporter) and our two resident Emmy gurus — our forums moderators Robert "Rob L" Licuria (AwardsHeaven.net) and Chris "Boomer" Beachum. To see how we fared predicting the Emmy top 10 lists, CLICK HERE! Below: how we size up the races for best drama and comedy series. To see our predix for best lead actor and actress, CLICK HERE!

KEEP READING - CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR PREDIX FOR BEST ACTOR AND ACTRESS IN DRAMA AND COMEDY SERIES!