There's good news and bad news for Rory Reid in the Nevada Gubernatorial race. The good news is that he's gaining, up to 43% after being at 38% in our July poll of the state. The bad news is that Brian Sandoval is standing solid at the same 52% he had in our July poll. So although it is now a single digit race that's just a reflection of Reid picking up undecideds rather than winning over Sandoval supporters, and with Sandoval polling consistently over 50% the path to victory for Reid continues to look exceedingly difficult.
This race ultimately comes down to the independents. Both candidates have their party bases pretty well locked up with Sandoval taking 88% of Republicans and Reid 82% of Democrats. But Sandoval's winning independents by a 62-33 margin and that's what's fueling his overall lead. To put his 29 point advantage with them in perspective, Sharron Angle's lead with them in the Senate race is only 8 points.
Sandoval is proving to be one of the most attractive Republican Gubernatorial candidates in the country. 52% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to only 32% who see him negatively. Even moderates see him positively by a 46/38 spread and that's exceedingly rare for Republicans this year- the only other GOP candidates we've seen on positive ground with moderates are Scott Brown on the Senate side and Michigan's Rick Snyder, Hawaii's Duke Aiona, and Pennsylvania's Tom Corbett on the Gubernatorial side. Much of Rory Reid's trouble has been blamed on the family brand but that sells Sandoval short- he's one of the better candidates the GOP has anywhere this year.
It's overwhelmingly the case across the country this year that in states with an unpopular outgoing Governor the office is going to change parties but Nevada is bucking that trend. Republican Jim Gibbons is one of the least popular folks holding his position in the whole country with a 25% approval rating and 61% of voters disapproving of him but it doesn't seem to be rubbing off on Sandoval.
Perhaps in a different political climate or against a weaker opponent (like his dad's) Rory Reid could have been elected Governor of Nevada but there's going to have to be a big game changer in the final three weeks for Sandoval not win this one.
Full results here
Showing newest 15 of 37 posts from October 2010. Show older posts
Showing newest 15 of 37 posts from October 2010. Show older posts
Thursday, October 14, 2010
4 races where the undecideds matter
We're getting to the point in the cycle where in a lot of races the undecideds just don't matter that much because there are so few. Nevada is the best example of this. There's really no one left trying to decide whether to support Harry Reid or Sharron Angle. At this point that race is mostly going to be determined by who can persuade their voters to get out to the polls.
We have polled four close races in the last few weeks though where the undecideds really do matter and could determine who ends up winning: in the Colorado Senate race and Florida Governor race they could make a big difference for the Republicans and in the Illinois contests for both Governor and Senate they could make a big difference for the Democrats.
In Colorado and Florida both most of the undecided voters are GOP leaning. In Colorado 53% of them voted for John McCain and 38% for Barack Obama. In Florida they skew even more strongly to the Republicans- 60% voted for McCain and only 33% for Obama.
Usually you would expect those folks to end up coming home but here's another fact about those voters: they hate the GOP candidates. Buck's favorability with undecided voters is 5/42. Scott's is 3/47. So those voters are going to have to decide between their competing instincts of supporting the GOP and opposing these particular GOP candidates.
Buck trailed by 1 point on our most recent poll and Scott by 5. Their chances will improve greatly if they can find a way to convince those undecided voters to stick with the party.
We find a similar situation in reverse for the contests for Governor and Senate in Illinois. The folks who were undecided for Governor the last time we polled there had voted for Barack Obama by a 67/20 margin in 2008. Pat Quinn trailed by 7 points in our poll but if the undecided Obama voters went for him and the undecided McCain voters went for Bill Brady that would take the Brady lead all the way down to a single point. The only problem for Quinn with that scenario? His approval rating with the undecideds was 14/42. If he can get those folks to go for party over person and suck it up and vote for him he might be able to pull across the finish line.
The story in the Senate race is similar, although not quite to the same degree. There 46% of the undecideds are Democrats to only 27% who are Republicans. Giannoulias' favorability is 11/30 with them. Alexi really doesn't have too much ground to make up, at least in our polling, so if those party mates end up going with him it might just be enough to put him over the top for a small victory.
The undecideds are becoming a moot point in a lot of races but they're worth keeping an eye on in these ones.
We have polled four close races in the last few weeks though where the undecideds really do matter and could determine who ends up winning: in the Colorado Senate race and Florida Governor race they could make a big difference for the Republicans and in the Illinois contests for both Governor and Senate they could make a big difference for the Democrats.
In Colorado and Florida both most of the undecided voters are GOP leaning. In Colorado 53% of them voted for John McCain and 38% for Barack Obama. In Florida they skew even more strongly to the Republicans- 60% voted for McCain and only 33% for Obama.
Usually you would expect those folks to end up coming home but here's another fact about those voters: they hate the GOP candidates. Buck's favorability with undecided voters is 5/42. Scott's is 3/47. So those voters are going to have to decide between their competing instincts of supporting the GOP and opposing these particular GOP candidates.
Buck trailed by 1 point on our most recent poll and Scott by 5. Their chances will improve greatly if they can find a way to convince those undecided voters to stick with the party.
We find a similar situation in reverse for the contests for Governor and Senate in Illinois. The folks who were undecided for Governor the last time we polled there had voted for Barack Obama by a 67/20 margin in 2008. Pat Quinn trailed by 7 points in our poll but if the undecided Obama voters went for him and the undecided McCain voters went for Bill Brady that would take the Brady lead all the way down to a single point. The only problem for Quinn with that scenario? His approval rating with the undecideds was 14/42. If he can get those folks to go for party over person and suck it up and vote for him he might be able to pull across the finish line.
The story in the Senate race is similar, although not quite to the same degree. There 46% of the undecideds are Democrats to only 27% who are Republicans. Giannoulias' favorability is 11/30 with them. Alexi really doesn't have too much ground to make up, at least in our polling, so if those party mates end up going with him it might just be enough to put him over the top for a small victory.
The undecideds are becoming a moot point in a lot of races but they're worth keeping an eye on in these ones.
Limbaugh would be weak against Nelson
Rush Limbaugh's one of the most influential figures in American politics who's never run for office...but what if he did run for office? His home state of Florida has an incumbent Democratic Senator up for reelection next cycle in Bill Nelson and we tested to see how Rush would do as the Republican challenger against Nelson.
The answer is not so well. Nelson leads Limbaugh 50-36 in that hypothetical match up. Nelson would have his party base pretty well locked up, independents would go for him overwhelmingly by a 58-30 margin, and even 21% of Republicans say they'd prefer Nelson to Limbaugh.
Limbaugh simply isn't very well liked. A majority of voters in the state, at 53%, have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 35% who see him positively. He is pretty well liked with Republicans at a 64/22 spread but independents strongly dislike him at 23/67 and certainly it's no surprise that only 13% of Democrats like him.
It's no surprise Limbaugh wouldn't be the toughest challenger to Nelson but whoever the Republicans put up is likely to have an uphill battle. Nelson's approval numbers aren't outstanding at a 40/35 spread. But what stands out is that he's unusually popular with Republicans in this highly polarized political climate (26% approval) and he's on positive ground with independents at 38/35. The reason his overall numbers aren't great is that he has only a 55% approval rating with Democrats but most of the ones who don't approve of him would still vote for him anyway given the choice between him and a Republican.
We also tested a more likely Nelson opponent in Connie Mack IV. He trails a hypothetical contest 42-33, doing better with independents than Limbaugh and losing fewer Republicans. Mack is an unknown quantity to 60% of voters in the state with 18% of those familiar with him rating him favorably and 21% unfavorably.
A PPP poll in July looking forward found Nelson leading Jeb Bush 46-44 and George LeMieux 49-28. This race has the potential to be competitive but the Republicans can't nominate just anyone to make it so.
Full results here
The answer is not so well. Nelson leads Limbaugh 50-36 in that hypothetical match up. Nelson would have his party base pretty well locked up, independents would go for him overwhelmingly by a 58-30 margin, and even 21% of Republicans say they'd prefer Nelson to Limbaugh.
Limbaugh simply isn't very well liked. A majority of voters in the state, at 53%, have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 35% who see him positively. He is pretty well liked with Republicans at a 64/22 spread but independents strongly dislike him at 23/67 and certainly it's no surprise that only 13% of Democrats like him.
It's no surprise Limbaugh wouldn't be the toughest challenger to Nelson but whoever the Republicans put up is likely to have an uphill battle. Nelson's approval numbers aren't outstanding at a 40/35 spread. But what stands out is that he's unusually popular with Republicans in this highly polarized political climate (26% approval) and he's on positive ground with independents at 38/35. The reason his overall numbers aren't great is that he has only a 55% approval rating with Democrats but most of the ones who don't approve of him would still vote for him anyway given the choice between him and a Republican.
We also tested a more likely Nelson opponent in Connie Mack IV. He trails a hypothetical contest 42-33, doing better with independents than Limbaugh and losing fewer Republicans. Mack is an unknown quantity to 60% of voters in the state with 18% of those familiar with him rating him favorably and 21% unfavorably.
A PPP poll in July looking forward found Nelson leading Jeb Bush 46-44 and George LeMieux 49-28. This race has the potential to be competitive but the Republicans can't nominate just anyone to make it so.
Full results here
Why Murkowski's in it...and Crist is not
Polls we conducted last weekend found that Lisa Murkowski has a real chance to win the Alaska Senate race while Charlie Crist is pretty much done. What's causing their divergent fortunes? Here are some of the reasons:
1) In Alaska independent voter makes up 47% of the electorate, making them the largest voting group in the state. In Florida independents make up only 19% of the electorate, making them the smallest voting group in the state. Crist is actually doing better with independent voters, at 50%, than Murkowski is with them at 38%. But for Murkowski it's a much bigger part of the pot.
2) Murkowski still has some credibility with Republicans while Crist does not. The day Crist left the Republican Party that was it for his popularity with most voters in his old party. Now only 23% of GOP voters approve of the job Crist is doing as Governor and just 14% plan to vote for him this fall. Murkowski's decision to go it alone has certainly hurt her popularity with GOP voters- only 41% approve of her job performance- but the 31% of the Republican vote she's still getting compares very favorably to Crist.
3) The actual GOP nominee in Florida is a considerably stronger candidate than the one in Alaska. Marco Rubio's favorability rating is 45/43, not exactly phenomenal but ahead of the curve in a year when voters aren't responding positively to very many politicians. Joe Miller, on the other hand, is one of the most unpopular candidates anywhere this year at a 35/58 favorability. Republicans are a bit tepid about him and Democrats and independents pretty universally dislike him. If Miller was a more appealing fellow Murkowski might be just as doomed as Crist.
Those are some of the biggest reasons why Murkowski has a real chance while all Crist can do is pray for Kendrick Meek to drop out.
1) In Alaska independent voter makes up 47% of the electorate, making them the largest voting group in the state. In Florida independents make up only 19% of the electorate, making them the smallest voting group in the state. Crist is actually doing better with independent voters, at 50%, than Murkowski is with them at 38%. But for Murkowski it's a much bigger part of the pot.
2) Murkowski still has some credibility with Republicans while Crist does not. The day Crist left the Republican Party that was it for his popularity with most voters in his old party. Now only 23% of GOP voters approve of the job Crist is doing as Governor and just 14% plan to vote for him this fall. Murkowski's decision to go it alone has certainly hurt her popularity with GOP voters- only 41% approve of her job performance- but the 31% of the Republican vote she's still getting compares very favorably to Crist.
3) The actual GOP nominee in Florida is a considerably stronger candidate than the one in Alaska. Marco Rubio's favorability rating is 45/43, not exactly phenomenal but ahead of the curve in a year when voters aren't responding positively to very many politicians. Joe Miller, on the other hand, is one of the most unpopular candidates anywhere this year at a 35/58 favorability. Republicans are a bit tepid about him and Democrats and independents pretty universally dislike him. If Miller was a more appealing fellow Murkowski might be just as doomed as Crist.
Those are some of the biggest reasons why Murkowski has a real chance while all Crist can do is pray for Kendrick Meek to drop out.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Breaking Down the Enthusiasm Gap
Here's a lesson everyone interested in polling needs to get down between now and the election: the enthusiasm gap is not spread evenly across the country.
We've polled 23 different states since switching over to likely voters. Likely voters in those states this year report having voted for Barack Obama by an average of 1 point. Obama won the 23 states by an average of 9 points. So taken as a whole we're seeing on average an electorate that's 8 points more Republican friendly than in 2008.
Here's the thing though: just because these 23 states average an electorate that's 8 points more Republican doesn't mean that's the case for all of them individually. Some of them are seeing gaps much larger than 8 points. And some of them are actually seeing a slightly more Democratic electorate than in 2008.
Let's start with those states where we find a more Dem friendly electorate this time around. They are West Virginia, Kentucky, and Alaska. What do those states have in common? They saw basically none of the Democratic surge for Obama in 2008 that the rest of the country did. Obama did the same as John Kerry in West Virginia and saw only a 3 point improvement in Kentucky and a 4 point improvement in Alaska, compared to the 10 point improvement nationally.
It stands to reason that in states where there was not a big gain in Democratic turnout in 2008, there's also not going to be a big drop in Democratic turnout in 2010. We've been getting a lot of flack because our West Virginia poll yesterday showed a McCain +11 electorate when he won the state by 13 that basically boils down to 'where is the enthusiasm gap?' The truth is that the Presidential race was the turnout driver in 2008 and West Virginia Democrats don't like Barack Obama. The Senate race is the turnout driver this year and West Virginia Democrats love Joe Manchin.
It's a close race and he could still lose but it's misguided to think that because Democratic turnout is going to be way down nationally that it will be in West Virginia, just as it would have been a mistake in 2008 to assume that because Democratic turnout was way up nationally that it would also be in West Virginia.
Now let's look at some of the states where we see particularly steep drops in Democratic turnout this year: Hawaii (19 point shift), Michigan (15 point shift), Wisconsin (14 point shift), New Mexico (11 point shift), Delaware (11 point shift), North Carolina (10 point shift), Illinois (10 point shift), and Nevada (10 point shift.) What do those states all have in common? They saw some of the biggest surges in Democratic performance in 2008 compared to 2004. So it's really no big surprise that they would see some of the biggest reversions to normal in a midterm year.
It's not a 100% correlation but generally speaking the places where Democrats improved their performance the most in 2008 are going to have the biggest dropoffs in turnout this year. And the places where Democrats saw little or no improvement have the smallest dropoffs.
Here's the full breakdown:
We've polled 23 different states since switching over to likely voters. Likely voters in those states this year report having voted for Barack Obama by an average of 1 point. Obama won the 23 states by an average of 9 points. So taken as a whole we're seeing on average an electorate that's 8 points more Republican friendly than in 2008.
Here's the thing though: just because these 23 states average an electorate that's 8 points more Republican doesn't mean that's the case for all of them individually. Some of them are seeing gaps much larger than 8 points. And some of them are actually seeing a slightly more Democratic electorate than in 2008.
Let's start with those states where we find a more Dem friendly electorate this time around. They are West Virginia, Kentucky, and Alaska. What do those states have in common? They saw basically none of the Democratic surge for Obama in 2008 that the rest of the country did. Obama did the same as John Kerry in West Virginia and saw only a 3 point improvement in Kentucky and a 4 point improvement in Alaska, compared to the 10 point improvement nationally.
It stands to reason that in states where there was not a big gain in Democratic turnout in 2008, there's also not going to be a big drop in Democratic turnout in 2010. We've been getting a lot of flack because our West Virginia poll yesterday showed a McCain +11 electorate when he won the state by 13 that basically boils down to 'where is the enthusiasm gap?' The truth is that the Presidential race was the turnout driver in 2008 and West Virginia Democrats don't like Barack Obama. The Senate race is the turnout driver this year and West Virginia Democrats love Joe Manchin.
It's a close race and he could still lose but it's misguided to think that because Democratic turnout is going to be way down nationally that it will be in West Virginia, just as it would have been a mistake in 2008 to assume that because Democratic turnout was way up nationally that it would also be in West Virginia.
Now let's look at some of the states where we see particularly steep drops in Democratic turnout this year: Hawaii (19 point shift), Michigan (15 point shift), Wisconsin (14 point shift), New Mexico (11 point shift), Delaware (11 point shift), North Carolina (10 point shift), Illinois (10 point shift), and Nevada (10 point shift.) What do those states all have in common? They saw some of the biggest surges in Democratic performance in 2008 compared to 2004. So it's really no big surprise that they would see some of the biggest reversions to normal in a midterm year.
It's not a 100% correlation but generally speaking the places where Democrats improved their performance the most in 2008 are going to have the biggest dropoffs in turnout this year. And the places where Democrats saw little or no improvement have the smallest dropoffs.
Here's the full breakdown:
| State | 2008 Vote | 2010 Electorate | Shift |
| Hawaii | Obama +45 | Obama +26 | R+19 |
| Michigan | Obama +16 | Obama +1 | R+15 |
| Wisconsin | Obama +14 | Tie | R+14 |
| New York | Obama +27 | Obama +14 | R+13 |
| Pennsylvania | Obama +10 | McCain +1 | R+11 |
| Delaware | Obama +25 | Obama +14 | R+11 |
| New Mexico | Obama +15 | Obama +4 | R+11 |
| Maine | Obama +17 | Obama +7 | R+10 |
| New Hampshire | Obama +10 | Tie | R+10 |
| Illinois | Obama +25 | Obama +15 | R+10 |
| North Carolina | Obama +1 | McCain +9 | R+10 |
| Florida | Obama +3 | McCain +7 | R+10 |
| Nevada | Obama +12 | Obama +2 | R+10 |
| Colorado | Obama +9 | Tie | R+9 |
| Ohio | Obama +4 | McCain +3 | R+7 |
| Connecticut | Obama +22 | Obama +15 | R+7 |
| Missouri | Tie | McCain +7 | R+7 |
| California | Obama +24 | Obama +21 | R+3 |
| Louisiana | McCain +18 | McCain +20 | R+2 |
| Texas | McCain +11 | McCain +11 | None |
| West Virginia | McCain +13 | McCain +11 | D+2 |
| Kentucky | McCain +16 | McCain +13 | D+3 |
| Alaska | McCain +21 | McCain +14 | D+7 |
Question Suggestions
We're polling Illinois, North Carolina, and Washington this weekend. Question suggestions beyond the obvious horse race stuff appreciated...we end up using as many as we can.
Sink continues to lead
Alex Sink continues to lead the Florida Governor's race by a 46-41 margin over Rick Scott.
The big story in this race is the independents. In most states across the country Republicans are dominating with them but the intense unpopularity of Scott is making this contest an exception to that rule. 61% of independents have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 20% who see him in a positive light and as a result Sink holds a 53-26 lead with that group, accounting for her entire overall lead.
Scott has at least improved his standing a little bit from PPP's last poll of the race, which found him down by 7. That's largely because the Republican base has warmed up to him in the weeks following his contentious primary win. In August he had only a 57-13 advantage over Sink with GOP voters and that has now expanded to 77-10. He is actually winning over more Democrats, at 13%, than Sink is Republicans and that's quite a change from earlier in the race.
Still Scott is, along with Dan Maes of Colorado, Joe Miller of Alaska, and Christine O'Donnell of Delaware, one of the four most unpopular Republican candidates in the country. 52% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of him to 33% with a positive one. He has virtually no appeal to either Democrats or independents.
Scott's nomination is going to get most of the credit if Sink does go on to win this race but she is actually proving to be one of the more appealing Democratic candidates across the country this year, with a 44/38 favorability spread. In a normal election year that might not be particularly impressive but in this political climate where voters feel very negatively toward most politicians those numbers are well ahead of the curve.
For Sink's relative popularity and Scott's remarkable unpopularity, he could still win this race. The 13% of voters who remain undecided are a largely Republican leaning group. 60% of them voted for John McCain in 2008 to only 33% who voted for Barack Obama. They strongly dislike Scott, giving him a 3/47 favorability rating. But if they decide to put aside their reservations about Scott personally and stick with the party they're accustomed for this race would be extremely close. Allocate the undecided McCain voters to Scott and the undecided Obama voters to Sink and it's just a 1 point race.
For the time being though Sink is holding off the national tide against her party and a win for her would be one of the party's brightest spots on what is likely to be an otherwise gloomy election night.
Full results here
The big story in this race is the independents. In most states across the country Republicans are dominating with them but the intense unpopularity of Scott is making this contest an exception to that rule. 61% of independents have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 20% who see him in a positive light and as a result Sink holds a 53-26 lead with that group, accounting for her entire overall lead.
Scott has at least improved his standing a little bit from PPP's last poll of the race, which found him down by 7. That's largely because the Republican base has warmed up to him in the weeks following his contentious primary win. In August he had only a 57-13 advantage over Sink with GOP voters and that has now expanded to 77-10. He is actually winning over more Democrats, at 13%, than Sink is Republicans and that's quite a change from earlier in the race.
Still Scott is, along with Dan Maes of Colorado, Joe Miller of Alaska, and Christine O'Donnell of Delaware, one of the four most unpopular Republican candidates in the country. 52% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of him to 33% with a positive one. He has virtually no appeal to either Democrats or independents.
Scott's nomination is going to get most of the credit if Sink does go on to win this race but she is actually proving to be one of the more appealing Democratic candidates across the country this year, with a 44/38 favorability spread. In a normal election year that might not be particularly impressive but in this political climate where voters feel very negatively toward most politicians those numbers are well ahead of the curve.
For Sink's relative popularity and Scott's remarkable unpopularity, he could still win this race. The 13% of voters who remain undecided are a largely Republican leaning group. 60% of them voted for John McCain in 2008 to only 33% who voted for Barack Obama. They strongly dislike Scott, giving him a 3/47 favorability rating. But if they decide to put aside their reservations about Scott personally and stick with the party they're accustomed for this race would be extremely close. Allocate the undecided McCain voters to Scott and the undecided Obama voters to Sink and it's just a 1 point race.
For the time being though Sink is holding off the national tide against her party and a win for her would be one of the party's brightest spots on what is likely to be an otherwise gloomy election night.
Full results here
Crazy E-Mail of the Day
Someday I will get a lucid e-mail from a conservative critiquing our polling... but it hasn't happened yet:
From: Jeff Ammon [mailto:jammons45@yahoo.com]
Sent: Wednesday, October 13, 2010 12:16 PM
To: PPP Information
Subject: What a joke
| It amazes me that going through ALL of your polls my friends and family see that you have the Dems all much better rated then the real pollsters like Gallup, Rassmussan, Fox, etc. Why is that? Why do you slant your findings by polling more known dems? It's obvious and we are making known not to pat attention to your polls as they are ALL slanted to the left of the truth. Three weeks from now you're going to see just how ridiculous your attempts have been and you can all go cry in your beer. YOu should ba ashamed that you can't hear and feel the peoples disgust. |
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Rubio continues to lead
In the Florida Senate race Charlie Crist is getting 42% of the Democratic vote and Kendrick Meek is getting 41%. It's been clear for months that unless one of the candidates broke away with the Democratic vote Marco Rubio would coast to victory and with only three weeks left until the election that's looking more and more likely. Rubio leads with 44% to 33% for Crist and 21% for Meek.
Perhaps more interesting at this point is what would happen if either Meek or Crist was to drop out of the race and create a one on one with Rubio. Crist and Rubio would tie at 46% each. Crist would have an overwhelming 66-31 lead with independents, but would win the Democratic vote by only a 69-20 margin. That 20% of Democrats for Rubio suggests that some segment of Meek's supporters would be none too pleased about him being forced out of the race and would not gravitate toward Crist.
In a head to head between Rubio and Meek, Rubio would lead 48-41. Meek performs weaker than Crist because although he would lead with independents by an 11 point margin that's nothing compared to the 35 point advantage that Crist has with that group.
In all likelihood Crist and Meek are both in it to the end. Crist is actually slightly more popular than Rubio, sporting a 47% approval rating to Rubio's 45% favorability. And Crist does have a strong lead with independents in the three way race, 50-27. But independents make up only 19% of the voters in Florida to 40% who are Republicans and with his former party Crist's support has pretty much evaporated to just 14%. Rubio's the only candidate in the race with a really strong base and the 82% of GOP voters he's getting right now has him in a very strong position to win and quite possibly win big.
Full results here
Perhaps more interesting at this point is what would happen if either Meek or Crist was to drop out of the race and create a one on one with Rubio. Crist and Rubio would tie at 46% each. Crist would have an overwhelming 66-31 lead with independents, but would win the Democratic vote by only a 69-20 margin. That 20% of Democrats for Rubio suggests that some segment of Meek's supporters would be none too pleased about him being forced out of the race and would not gravitate toward Crist.
In a head to head between Rubio and Meek, Rubio would lead 48-41. Meek performs weaker than Crist because although he would lead with independents by an 11 point margin that's nothing compared to the 35 point advantage that Crist has with that group.
In all likelihood Crist and Meek are both in it to the end. Crist is actually slightly more popular than Rubio, sporting a 47% approval rating to Rubio's 45% favorability. And Crist does have a strong lead with independents in the three way race, 50-27. But independents make up only 19% of the voters in Florida to 40% who are Republicans and with his former party Crist's support has pretty much evaporated to just 14%. Rubio's the only candidate in the race with a really strong base and the 82% of GOP voters he's getting right now has him in a very strong position to win and quite possibly win big.
Full results here
Reid holds a small lead
When PPP last polled the Nevada Senate race in July Harry Reid was ahead by 2 points. Fast forward 3 months and nothing has changed. Reid leads Sharron Angle 47-45 with minor candidates and none of the above combining for 7% and only 1% of voters still undecided.
Reid continues to be unpopular with 44% of voters approving of him and 52% disapproving. Feelings toward him are pretty much completely polarized along party lines with 83% of Democrats giving him good marks and 88% of Republicans unhappy with the job he's doing. Independents split against him by a 34/61 margin.
Although Reid's approval numbers are bad he's come a long way since PPP's first Nevada poll of the cycle, back in January, which found him at a 36/58 spread. The arena of a campaign has caused Democrats to warm up to him considerably and although his 34% favor with independents is bad it's actually up 10 points from 24% at the start of the year.
Nevada voters like Angle even less than they like Reid. Her favorability is 41/53. Her numbers with independents are a lot better than her opponent's, at 50/46. But 22% of Republicans view Angle negatively, indicating a much higher degree of reservation about her within her own party than Reid sees in his.
Reid is winning over 85% of Democrats while Angle is getting just 83% of Republicans. In 90% of races across the country this year Republicans are more unified than Democrats but this is the rare exception and it's the biggest reason why Reid is still clinging to a lead. Angle is ahead 48-40 with independents but given Reid's -27 approval spread with them it ought to be a lot more and it's another reminder that Republican primary voters may have bailed out Reid.
The combination of Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian and 'none of the above' on the Nevada ballot may be one of the most overplayed political stories of 2010. Each is getting only 2% on our poll. In addition to polling the full ballot we also asked a head to head Reid/Angle question. On that measure folks who had supported someone other than Angle or Reid on the full ballot supported Angle by only a 33-32 margin. So the presence of all those other things on the ballot is basically a wash despite all the ink that has been devoted to it.
Reid's small lead comes with a projected electorate that voted for Barack Obama by only 2 points in 2008, in contrast to his actual 12 point victory in the state. That's one of the largest enthusiasm gaps we're seeing anywhere in the country and if Democratic interest in the election picks up down the stretch Reid could see his lead expand to a more comfortable margin. If that doesn't change this is bound to be one of the closest races in the country on election night.
Full results here
Reid continues to be unpopular with 44% of voters approving of him and 52% disapproving. Feelings toward him are pretty much completely polarized along party lines with 83% of Democrats giving him good marks and 88% of Republicans unhappy with the job he's doing. Independents split against him by a 34/61 margin.
Although Reid's approval numbers are bad he's come a long way since PPP's first Nevada poll of the cycle, back in January, which found him at a 36/58 spread. The arena of a campaign has caused Democrats to warm up to him considerably and although his 34% favor with independents is bad it's actually up 10 points from 24% at the start of the year.
Nevada voters like Angle even less than they like Reid. Her favorability is 41/53. Her numbers with independents are a lot better than her opponent's, at 50/46. But 22% of Republicans view Angle negatively, indicating a much higher degree of reservation about her within her own party than Reid sees in his.
Reid is winning over 85% of Democrats while Angle is getting just 83% of Republicans. In 90% of races across the country this year Republicans are more unified than Democrats but this is the rare exception and it's the biggest reason why Reid is still clinging to a lead. Angle is ahead 48-40 with independents but given Reid's -27 approval spread with them it ought to be a lot more and it's another reminder that Republican primary voters may have bailed out Reid.
The combination of Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian and 'none of the above' on the Nevada ballot may be one of the most overplayed political stories of 2010. Each is getting only 2% on our poll. In addition to polling the full ballot we also asked a head to head Reid/Angle question. On that measure folks who had supported someone other than Angle or Reid on the full ballot supported Angle by only a 33-32 margin. So the presence of all those other things on the ballot is basically a wash despite all the ink that has been devoted to it.
Reid's small lead comes with a projected electorate that voted for Barack Obama by only 2 points in 2008, in contrast to his actual 12 point victory in the state. That's one of the largest enthusiasm gaps we're seeing anywhere in the country and if Democratic interest in the election picks up down the stretch Reid could see his lead expand to a more comfortable margin. If that doesn't change this is bound to be one of the closest races in the country on election night.
Full results here
Manchin retakes lead
Joe Manchin has reclaimed the lead in the West Virginia Senate race by a 48-45 margin. He trailed by 3 points in a PPP poll three weeks ago and his improved standing is a clear example of the biggest potential game changer nationwide for this year's election in the final three weeks- if Democratic voters wake up some of their candidates' fates could shift quite a bit.
In 2008 56% of the voters who came out for President in West Virginia were registered Democrats while 29% were registered Republicans. The poll we did in mid-September found that the folks planning to vote in this year's election were considerably more GOP leaning- only 51% Democrats and 37% Republicans. But Democratic interest has perked up quite a bit over the ensuing three weeks and the likely electorate is now composed of 55% Democrats and 33% Republicans, still slightly more GOP friendly than in 2008 but enough to put Manchin back into the lead.
Perceptions of where this race stands have changed dramatically over the last three weeks and could be the reason Democratic voters are now becoming more engaged. In mid-September a Manchin victory was seen as inevitable but since then it's become clear the race is actually a toss up. That realization that Manchin actually does need their votes to win seems to have produced a greater sense of urgency with the Democratic base about getting out and voting next month.
Manchin's 68% approval rating on this poll is the highest PPP has measured for any politician in the country in 2010. Majorities of Democrats (80%), independents (60%), and Republicans (50%) alike are happy with the job he's doing. John Raese on the other hand has seen his favorability numbers slide over the last three weeks to the point where now just 39% of voters see him favorably and 46% have an unfavorable opinion.
Manchin's net approval is 53 points better than Raese's net favorability yet this is still only a 3 point race because the political climate remains toxic for Democrats in the state. Barack Obama's approval rating in the state is only 33%. Out of 32 states PPP has polled in this year that is Obama's worst approval anywhere.
34% of voters in the state both approve of the job Manchin is doing as Governor and disapprove of the job Obama is doing as President. For those folks the dislike of Obama outweighs the affection for Manchin- they're supporting Raese by a 59-34 margin. There are a few other worrisome findings for Manchin in the poll as well- even though he leads 47% of voters would prefer he remained Governor to 38% who want him in the Senate. And 53% think the national Democratic party is too liberal, which should help with GOP arguments that even if Manchin himself is not too liberal his election would help keep the liberals in charge in Washington.
All things considered though things look a little sunnier for Manchin than they did 3 weeks ago. There's no doubt this is a toss up race but it appears that things have at least stopped getting worse for him as they were throughout the month of September.
Full results here
In 2008 56% of the voters who came out for President in West Virginia were registered Democrats while 29% were registered Republicans. The poll we did in mid-September found that the folks planning to vote in this year's election were considerably more GOP leaning- only 51% Democrats and 37% Republicans. But Democratic interest has perked up quite a bit over the ensuing three weeks and the likely electorate is now composed of 55% Democrats and 33% Republicans, still slightly more GOP friendly than in 2008 but enough to put Manchin back into the lead.
Perceptions of where this race stands have changed dramatically over the last three weeks and could be the reason Democratic voters are now becoming more engaged. In mid-September a Manchin victory was seen as inevitable but since then it's become clear the race is actually a toss up. That realization that Manchin actually does need their votes to win seems to have produced a greater sense of urgency with the Democratic base about getting out and voting next month.
Manchin's 68% approval rating on this poll is the highest PPP has measured for any politician in the country in 2010. Majorities of Democrats (80%), independents (60%), and Republicans (50%) alike are happy with the job he's doing. John Raese on the other hand has seen his favorability numbers slide over the last three weeks to the point where now just 39% of voters see him favorably and 46% have an unfavorable opinion.
Manchin's net approval is 53 points better than Raese's net favorability yet this is still only a 3 point race because the political climate remains toxic for Democrats in the state. Barack Obama's approval rating in the state is only 33%. Out of 32 states PPP has polled in this year that is Obama's worst approval anywhere.
34% of voters in the state both approve of the job Manchin is doing as Governor and disapprove of the job Obama is doing as President. For those folks the dislike of Obama outweighs the affection for Manchin- they're supporting Raese by a 59-34 margin. There are a few other worrisome findings for Manchin in the poll as well- even though he leads 47% of voters would prefer he remained Governor to 38% who want him in the Senate. And 53% think the national Democratic party is too liberal, which should help with GOP arguments that even if Manchin himself is not too liberal his election would help keep the liberals in charge in Washington.
All things considered though things look a little sunnier for Manchin than they did 3 weeks ago. There's no doubt this is a toss up race but it appears that things have at least stopped getting worse for him as they were throughout the month of September.
Full results here
Monday, October 11, 2010
Voting Time
We have numbers from Florida, Nevada, and West Virginia coming this week. Here are your choices for next week:
-California. It's been 4 weeks now since we polled there- are Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer holding strong? And we get more calls about the marijuana referendum than anything else these days so I know folks are always up for more numbers on that.
-Illinois. We polled there a few weeks ago but it's one of the few states with really close races for both Senate and Governor so no problem with doing it again.
-New Hampshire. I'm still interested in the question of whether John Lynch is in trouble or not- the polling is all over the map- and the polls also differ on if Democrats have any remaining chance at winning that Senate race.
-Ohio. Lots of polls show Ted Strickland more or less tied. A fair number still show him down by a lot too. I'd be interested to see where we fall in there.
-Pennsylvania. I think the conventional wisdom is that the Senate race is over but conventional wisdom is perfectly capable of being wrong- there have been a couple polls showing it as close as 3 or 5 points over the last couple weeks and it would be worth taking a look at whether Joe Sestak's getting back into this thing.
-Washington. For a while it looked like Patty Murray was pulling away but now it seems the polls might be going back in the other direction and the numbers we found for her within Dave Reichert's Congressional district last weekend were not all that encouraging. We haven't polled here since July.
-Wisconsin. The public polls have developed into a consensus that Feingold's down by about 7 points or so but his internal polling shows a rosier race and the state has a competitive Governor's race as well.
Voting is open until Wednesday morning.
-California. It's been 4 weeks now since we polled there- are Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer holding strong? And we get more calls about the marijuana referendum than anything else these days so I know folks are always up for more numbers on that.
-Illinois. We polled there a few weeks ago but it's one of the few states with really close races for both Senate and Governor so no problem with doing it again.
-New Hampshire. I'm still interested in the question of whether John Lynch is in trouble or not- the polling is all over the map- and the polls also differ on if Democrats have any remaining chance at winning that Senate race.
-Ohio. Lots of polls show Ted Strickland more or less tied. A fair number still show him down by a lot too. I'd be interested to see where we fall in there.
-Pennsylvania. I think the conventional wisdom is that the Senate race is over but conventional wisdom is perfectly capable of being wrong- there have been a couple polls showing it as close as 3 or 5 points over the last couple weeks and it would be worth taking a look at whether Joe Sestak's getting back into this thing.
-Washington. For a while it looked like Patty Murray was pulling away but now it seems the polls might be going back in the other direction and the numbers we found for her within Dave Reichert's Congressional district last weekend were not all that encouraging. We haven't polled here since July.
-Wisconsin. The public polls have developed into a consensus that Feingold's down by about 7 points or so but his internal polling shows a rosier race and the state has a competitive Governor's race as well.
Voting is open until Wednesday morning.
Nevada Senate Preview
Our Nevada Senate poll coming out tomorrow is like pretty much all of them since Sharron Angle won the Republican nomination- within a few points in one direction. Usually the conventional wisdom is that a tie race means the incumbent will lose but in the case of Nevada there are a couple big reasons why the tie might go to Harry Reid.
The first is that the polling in Nevada was the worst of any swing state in 2008 (well actually it turned out Nevada wasn't a swing state but everyone thought it was because the polling showed a close race.) And the polling was all off in the same direction- underestimating Barack Obama's margin of victory. Obama won the state by 12 points: our final poll had him up by only 4, Mason Dixon had him up by only 4, Rasmussen had him up by only 4, and CNN had him up by only 7. Some pollsters did do a better job- Suffolk showed a 10 point lead, Zogby an 11 point one, and AP a 12 point one.
So the precedent is there for pollsters- especially the ones who have been doing most of the polling for this year's race- to underestimate Democratic performance in the state. Now there are also a couple reasons why that would not be the case again. The first is that it's quite possible the voters pollsters missed in 2008- Obama wave voters- are exactly the same kind of folks who won't be back out to vote this year for a midterm election.
The second is that those below the radar in 2008 voters may now be included in pollsters' samples- I can only speak for what we do but we're calling folks who voted in the 2004 general, 2006 general, or 2008 general so we should have a lot of the people we missed last time in our samples this time. Still it strikes me as much more likely that the polls are systematically underestimating Harry Reid than the other way around.
The other reason the tie might go to Reid is that the polling in Nevada is assuming a much larger gap between Democratic and Republican turnout compared to 2008 than we're seeing most places. In our poll tomorrow the sample reports having voted for Barack Obama by only 2 points, compared to his actual 12 point victory in the state. Even with that big dropoff in turnout from Democrats the race is still very close- but if even half of that enthusiasm gap was chopped between now and November Reid would be in a very strong position. And we have seen indication already this cycle that Democratic interest perks up as election day gets closer.
I certainly think Angle can win by a small amount but if you asked me who has the better chance of winning this by 5 or 6 points I definitely think it's Reid.
The first is that the polling in Nevada was the worst of any swing state in 2008 (well actually it turned out Nevada wasn't a swing state but everyone thought it was because the polling showed a close race.) And the polling was all off in the same direction- underestimating Barack Obama's margin of victory. Obama won the state by 12 points: our final poll had him up by only 4, Mason Dixon had him up by only 4, Rasmussen had him up by only 4, and CNN had him up by only 7. Some pollsters did do a better job- Suffolk showed a 10 point lead, Zogby an 11 point one, and AP a 12 point one.
So the precedent is there for pollsters- especially the ones who have been doing most of the polling for this year's race- to underestimate Democratic performance in the state. Now there are also a couple reasons why that would not be the case again. The first is that it's quite possible the voters pollsters missed in 2008- Obama wave voters- are exactly the same kind of folks who won't be back out to vote this year for a midterm election.
The second is that those below the radar in 2008 voters may now be included in pollsters' samples- I can only speak for what we do but we're calling folks who voted in the 2004 general, 2006 general, or 2008 general so we should have a lot of the people we missed last time in our samples this time. Still it strikes me as much more likely that the polls are systematically underestimating Harry Reid than the other way around.
The other reason the tie might go to Reid is that the polling in Nevada is assuming a much larger gap between Democratic and Republican turnout compared to 2008 than we're seeing most places. In our poll tomorrow the sample reports having voted for Barack Obama by only 2 points, compared to his actual 12 point victory in the state. Even with that big dropoff in turnout from Democrats the race is still very close- but if even half of that enthusiasm gap was chopped between now and November Reid would be in a very strong position. And we have seen indication already this cycle that Democratic interest perks up as election day gets closer.
I certainly think Angle can win by a small amount but if you asked me who has the better chance of winning this by 5 or 6 points I definitely think it's Reid.
Candidates matter...except when they don't
I think Democrats are going to lose the House, with Republicans quite possibly picking up a lot more seats than they even need for a majority. At the same time I think Democrats will hold onto the Senate and that it may be by a larger margin than people are expecting, with the party perhaps holding onto its seats in places like Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, and West Virginia where the party lucked out because the GOP nominated weak candidates.
That's a reminder that candidates matter- but they matter a lot more in Senate elections where voters really get to know them than in House elections that are much more likely to be determined by the national tide. We've seen time and again in Senate races this year that the better voters get to know the Republican candidates the less they like them. But unfortunately for Democrats I don't know that voters ever get to know the House candidates well enough for that same effect to occur.
I've had 3 reminders of this in the last week:
1) In Colorado voters prefer Republicans on the generic Congressional ballot by a 47-44 margin. At the same time Democrat Michael Bennet is leading the Senate race 46-45. There's a simple explanation for that- Ken Buck is weaker than your average GOP candidate would have been. Independents are generally leaning toward Republicans 39-38. But they prefer Bennet to Buck 48-38. They may be slightly inclined to support a GOP candidate but not that GOP candidate.
2) We saw a similar story last week in Connecticut. Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot in the state by a slightly scary margin of only 44-42. Independents go toward the GOP by a 43-29 spread and 12% of Democrats are planning to vote Republican while only 8% of Republicans go the other way. But in the US Senate race, where a majority of voters have a negative opinion of Linda McMahon, those trends are all flipped on their heads. Richard Blumenthal earns a tie with independents and gets 15% of Republicans to McMahon's 11% of Democrats. Blumenthal's turned out to be a much weaker candidate than Democrats would have expected 9 months ago but he's going to be fine because he drew an even weaker opponent.
3) On our Nevada poll this weekend we asked just for the heck of it how folks would have voted if the Republican nominee had been Danny Tarkanian. He did 8 point better than Sharron Angle, most notably winning independent voters by 26 points when her advantage with them is only 8. Independents in Nevada want to vote against Harry Reid, but a lot of them consider him to be a lesser evil than Angle. But if Angle was a House candidate would she ever have been exposed to enough scrutiny to make voters realize they didn't like her?
If House candidates got the same level of exposure Senate ones do there are probably some races Democrats would win that they're going to lose...but the simple reality is that they don't and Democrats won't benefit from candidate unforced errors the way they are on the Senate side.
That's a reminder that candidates matter- but they matter a lot more in Senate elections where voters really get to know them than in House elections that are much more likely to be determined by the national tide. We've seen time and again in Senate races this year that the better voters get to know the Republican candidates the less they like them. But unfortunately for Democrats I don't know that voters ever get to know the House candidates well enough for that same effect to occur.
I've had 3 reminders of this in the last week:
1) In Colorado voters prefer Republicans on the generic Congressional ballot by a 47-44 margin. At the same time Democrat Michael Bennet is leading the Senate race 46-45. There's a simple explanation for that- Ken Buck is weaker than your average GOP candidate would have been. Independents are generally leaning toward Republicans 39-38. But they prefer Bennet to Buck 48-38. They may be slightly inclined to support a GOP candidate but not that GOP candidate.
2) We saw a similar story last week in Connecticut. Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot in the state by a slightly scary margin of only 44-42. Independents go toward the GOP by a 43-29 spread and 12% of Democrats are planning to vote Republican while only 8% of Republicans go the other way. But in the US Senate race, where a majority of voters have a negative opinion of Linda McMahon, those trends are all flipped on their heads. Richard Blumenthal earns a tie with independents and gets 15% of Republicans to McMahon's 11% of Democrats. Blumenthal's turned out to be a much weaker candidate than Democrats would have expected 9 months ago but he's going to be fine because he drew an even weaker opponent.
3) On our Nevada poll this weekend we asked just for the heck of it how folks would have voted if the Republican nominee had been Danny Tarkanian. He did 8 point better than Sharron Angle, most notably winning independent voters by 26 points when her advantage with them is only 8. Independents in Nevada want to vote against Harry Reid, but a lot of them consider him to be a lesser evil than Angle. But if Angle was a House candidate would she ever have been exposed to enough scrutiny to make voters realize they didn't like her?
If House candidates got the same level of exposure Senate ones do there are probably some races Democrats would win that they're going to lose...but the simple reality is that they don't and Democrats won't benefit from candidate unforced errors the way they are on the Senate side.
Previewing Florida Senate
Tomorrow we'll have out Florida Senate numbers looking both at the three way race and head to head contests between Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist and Rubio and Kendrick Meek.
Right now pollster.com has Meek and Crist combining for 50% with Rubio at 44%. A lot of folks have looked at those numbers in the last few weeks and concluded that if one out of Meek and Crist would just drop out their combined support would be enough to defeat Rubio.
One number in the results we'll release tomorrow points to a big problem with that theory: 48% of Floridians want Republicans in charge of the next Senate while only 43% want Democrats in charge.
So let's say Meek did drop out and Crist became the de facto Democratic candidate. Right now Crist is winning 14% of the Republican vote and is getting 23% of the vote from independents who want Republicans to control the Senate. Would he be able to hold onto those GOP leaning voters if he was more or less the Democratic nominee? No way to know for sure but I'm skeptical.
And if by some chance Crist got out, there's no doubt Meek would have trouble winning over his Republican supporters. Only 35% of the GOPers sticking with Crist say they'd choose Meek over Rubio.
Would the odds of someone other than Rubio winning this seat improve dramatically if Crist or Meek was to drop out? Absolutely- but it would not be a slam dunk by any means.
Right now pollster.com has Meek and Crist combining for 50% with Rubio at 44%. A lot of folks have looked at those numbers in the last few weeks and concluded that if one out of Meek and Crist would just drop out their combined support would be enough to defeat Rubio.
One number in the results we'll release tomorrow points to a big problem with that theory: 48% of Floridians want Republicans in charge of the next Senate while only 43% want Democrats in charge.
So let's say Meek did drop out and Crist became the de facto Democratic candidate. Right now Crist is winning 14% of the Republican vote and is getting 23% of the vote from independents who want Republicans to control the Senate. Would he be able to hold onto those GOP leaning voters if he was more or less the Democratic nominee? No way to know for sure but I'm skeptical.
And if by some chance Crist got out, there's no doubt Meek would have trouble winning over his Republican supporters. Only 35% of the GOPers sticking with Crist say they'd choose Meek over Rubio.
Would the odds of someone other than Rubio winning this seat improve dramatically if Crist or Meek was to drop out? Absolutely- but it would not be a slam dunk by any means.
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