Showing newest 13 of 30 posts from October 2004. Show older posts
Showing newest 13 of 30 posts from October 2004. Show older posts

Thursday, October 28, 2004

Analysis of the Polls a Fortnight Before the Election, and My Exact Predictions

I shall look at the "battleground" states, and compare the current polling with two previous listings. Bush leads will be in blue; Kerry leads in red; ties in green. New Hampshire, Hawaii, and Florida are now also considered toss-up states, and so have been added to my analysis.

From Rasmussen state-by-state polls of electoral votes:

Pennsylvania (21)

47%-47 (Oct. 2 poll)
Kerry 47 Bush 46 (Oct. 13)
Kerry 49 Bush 46 (Oct. 24)

Ohio (20)

Bush 48 Kerry 47 (Oct. 3)
Bush 49 Kerry 47 (Oct. 14)
Bush 50 Kerry 46 (Oct. 26)

Michigan (17)

46-46 (Sep. 30)
Kerry 49 Bush 46 (Oct. 13)
Kerry 51 Bush 46 (Oct. 24)

Wisconsin (10)

Bush 49 Kerry 46 (Oct. 1)
No new poll for my second post
Kerry 48 Bush 47 (Oct. 18)

Minnesota (10)

46-46 (Sep. 26)
No new poll . . .
Bush 49-46 (Oct. 26)

Colorado (9)

Bush 48 Kerry 44 (Oct. 2)
No new poll . . .
Bush 50 Kerry 45 (Oct. 20)

Iowa (7)

Bush 48 Kerry 45 (Sep. 26)
Kerry 50 Bush 46 (Oct. 12)
Bush 48 Kerry 46 (Oct. 24)

Nevada (5)

Bush 47 Kerry 45 (Sep. 24)
No new poll . . .
Bush 49 Kerry 47 (Oct. 27)

New Mexico (5)

46-46 (Aug. 18)
No new poll
Bush 48 Kerry 44 (Oct. 27)

Florida (27)

Bush 48 Kerry 48 (Oct. 25)

New Hampshire (4)

Kerry 49 Bush 47 (Oct. 20)

Hawaii (4)

No information.

Rasmussen currently has Bush leading the electoral college 222-203 (538 total; 270 needed to win), and among likely voters 48.9% to 46.9%.

I'm predicting that Bush will take Ohio, Minnesota, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Florida. Kerry will take Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Hawaii. Assuming the other projections in Rasmussen stay the same, that is a Bush victory: 296-242 (54 points and 32 states to 18; I predicted a 60-point margin of victory and 32-18 on September 10th). If Bush loses Florida (with all else the same), it's a tie: 269-269. If he loses Minnesota, Iowa, and New Mexico, he wins 274-264. If he loses Florida and Minnesota, he loses: 259-279. If he loses both Florida and Ohio he loses 249-289. But that seems unlikely. If he loses Ohio and Minnesota, he loses: 266-272. But he can reverse that by taking either New Hampshire or Hawaii (winning, 270-268).

If Kerry can manage to take Minnesota, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico, with all else the same in my prediction, that would be a tie too. Bush grabbing New Hampshire or Hawaii could break either tie (273-265). The House determines who wins in a tie, and it is controlled by Republicans. But I am sticking to Bush winning both Florida and Ohio. The most likely battleground states that he would lose are Minnesota and Iowa. This would still be a victory for him: 279-259. Kerry needs some major victories and upsets to pull this off, if Rasmussen polling is a good indication of actual voting. Florida is clearly the most important state still up for grabs. If Kerry can "steal" Florida from Bush, with all else the same, it is a tie (but then Bush would win with a House vote).

My actual predictions for each state, then, are as follows:

President George W. Bush (32 states; 296-242 in the electoral college, or +54 points; September 10th prediction: 32-18 [states not specified], and +60 points; I also predicted on that date a 53-45% margin of the popular vote, with 2% for Nader, and I am sticking to it. Vice-President Cheney predicted 52-47 a few days ago)

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming

Senator John Kerry (18 states and Washington D.C.)

California
Connecticut
Delaware
Washington D.C.
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

I have long predicted that Bush would carry the South. Now I will predict that he will take every single Southern state. The only reason Florida is even close is because of the large transplanted liberal Northern retiree population. All Kerry can win are the liberal east and west coast states and industrial midwestern states with large cities and lots of factories (labor unions) and working class people and minorities (which usually vote Democratic).

The The Real Clear Politics website polls for the battleground states are now as follows (after my two previous listings):

Penn.

Kerry 49 Bush 45
(same)
Kerry 49 Bush 47 (average: 10/22-10/28)

Ohio

Bush 49 Kerry 47
Kerry 48 Bush 47
Kerry 48 Bush 46 (average: 10/20-10/28)

Mich.

Kerry 49 Bush 46
Kerry 50 Bush 44
Kerry 48 Bush 45 (average: 10/20-10/28)

Wisc.

Bush 49 Kerry 44
Bush 47 Kerry 44
Bush 47.2 Kerry 46.6 (average: 10/14-10/28)

Minn.

46 46
Kerry 47 Bush 43
46 46 (average: 10/19-10/28)

Colo.

Bush 50 Kerry 45
(same)
Bush 49 Kerry 45 (average: 10/14-10/27)

Iowa

Kerry 48 Bush 47
(same)
Bush 47 Kerry 46 (average: 10/23-10/28)

Nev.

Bush 49 Kerry 45
(same)
Bush 50 Kerry 46 (average: 10/19-10/27)

N.M.

47 47
(same)
Bush 48 Kerry 45 (average: 10/15-10/28)

Florida

Bush 49 Kerry 46
Bush 49 Kerry 47 (average: 10/20-10/28)

New Hampshire (4)

Kerry 47 Bush 45 (average: 10/14-10/21)

Hawaii (4)

Bush 45 Kerry 44 (average: 10/13-10/20)

RCP currently has Bush leading the electoral college 232-207 and among likely voters 48.4% - 46.1%.

RCP's last five major polls listed all favor Bush:

Reuters/Zogby (1206 LV)
10/25 - 10/27
48% - 46% - 1% (Nader) Bush +2

ABC/Wash Post (1747 LV)
10/24 - 10/27
49% - 48% - 1% Bush +1

TIPP (792 LV)
10/24 - 10/27
47% - 44% - 2% Bush +3

ICR (741 LV)
10/22 - 10/26
48% - 45% - 2% Bush +3

CNN/USAT/Gallup (1195 LV)
10/22 - 10/24
51% - 46% - 1% Bush +5

Notable Bush Trends in Some Recent Polls for the Battleground States

Fla.

Zogby (10-28) 48-47
Quinnipiac (10-26) 49-46
LA Times (10-26) 51-43

Pa.

Quinnipiac (10-26) 49-47

Iowa

ARG (10-27) 48-47
CNN/USAT/Gallup10/23-26 50-46

Minn.

Zogby (10-28) 46-45
Humphrey Inst (10-27) 47-44
Rasmussen (10-26) 49-46

Mich.

Zogby (10-28) 47-45

N.M.

Zogby (10-28) 49-43

Nevada

Zogby (10-27) 51-44

Hawaii

SMS Research (10-20) 46-45
Honolulu Advertiser (10-18) 43.3-42.6

Possible Bush "upsets" in Michigan or Pennsylvania could change the outcome considerably, as those states have 17 and 21 electoral votes, respectively.

Real Clear Politics states in its October 25th commentary on the electoral college:

Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico are fully in play: eight days before the election Bush holds leads in the RCP State Averages in all four of these states. This is seriously complicating Kerry's strategy in getting to 270 Electoral Votes. Conventional wisdom for months, including RCP's, had been that whoever won two of the "big three" Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida would almost certainly become President.

While it may still be likely that whoever carries two out of those three will win the election, it is not the cut and dry proposition it was earlier. President Bush can offset a loss in Ohio (and New Hampshire) by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida (and New Hampshire), by winning three of those four states. Winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine's 1 Electoral Vote and holding New Hampshire would also allow President Bush to gain reelection while losing Florida.

. . . The problem for Senator Kerry is he has no backup plan to not winning in either Florida or Ohio. The problem for President Bush is that Kerry is still very much alive in both those states. All of Bush's backup Electoral scenarios will be irrelevant if he loses FL and OH and Kerry hangs on to PA and MI.


Wednesday, October 27, 2004


Vision of the Seas is the largest and perhaps loveliest, of Royal Caribbean's Vision-class series of vessels.The multilevel Centrum is the hub of this ship. It's an airy, light-filled atrium with gliding glass elevators, palm trees, panoramic windows, gleaming brass, and chairs and low tables placed in cozy groupings.Go for a seaside jog on the top deck, spend a few pampering hours at the spa, swim in the dome covered solarium pool . . .

Friday, October 22, 2004


Don't leave America in the lurch . . .

. . . by voting for Kerry!

Update on My Website Google "Top Ten" Stats

On April 12th, 2004, I did a blog post consisting of showing how high my web pages ranked on the search engine Google, using the following terms. I was curious to see if there was any change over six months. The titles below are linked to my web pages. The first number is the ranking in the Google search in April. The second is how high it is listed now (October 22nd, 2004).

1 / 1 Bible and Tradition
1 / 1 The Papacy (or, Papacy)
1 / 1 Sacramentalism
1 / 2 Development of Doctrine
1 / 2 Communion of Saints
1 / 1 John Henry Newman
1 / 1 Malcolm Muggeridge
1 / 1 Theological Liberalism
2 / 1 Traditionalist Catholics
2 / 2 Sacred Tradition
2 / 2 Anti-Catholicism
[it still lists my old web page that is defunct! My new one, though, comes in at #14]
3 / 2 Justification
3 / 2 Holy Trinity
4 / 6 Purgatory
4 / 4 Scripture and Tradition
5 / 5 Eucharist
5 / 4 C.S. Lewis
5 / 5 G.K. Chesterton
5 / 4 Penance
6 / 5 Blessed Virgin Mary
6 / 8 Heresies
8 / 11 Christian Apologetics
9 / 49 Sola Scriptura
[another paper of mine is listed at #19]
9 / 4 Catholic Apologetics
10 / 6 Church Fathers

==================================
So site ranking (of the above searches) has improved overall, with eight gains and seven losses. The last two pages listed showed the biggest gain. Here are some new ones I found:

5 Protestantism
17 Ecumenism
3 Sacrifice of the Mass
1 Salvation Outside the Catholic Church
[a single paper; actually by Fr. John A. Hardon. My topical web page along these lines comes in at #2]
5 Salvation Outside the Church
1 John Hardon
2 Moral Theology
5 Traditionalism
[my book on the subject]
4 Catholic Converts
2 Eastern Orthodoxy
14 Orthodoxy
2 Infallibility
6 + 7 Private Judgment
[two papers; link for the second]
13 Christian Philosophy
10 Cosmological Argument
1 Theistic Arguments
6-9 Tim Enloe
[additional links: two, four]
6 Eric Svendsen [paper]
8 + 9 William Webster
[two papers; link for the second]
4 +5 Dr. James White
[two papers' link for the second]
5 + 9 Jason Engwer
[two papers; link for the second]
4 Penance
3 Romantic Theology
2 Anglicanism
3 Catholicism
2 Denominationalism [paper]
3 David T. King

That adds up to a total of 10 #1's, 40 in the Top Five, and 55 Top Ten "hits." Thanks so much for reading! It is my pleasure to be of some service to you.

Thursday, October 21, 2004

Michigan (and a Few Other "Toss-Up" States) Threatening to Vote Sensibly??!!!

My home state, Michigan (which I have given to Kerry in my election predictions, since it has voted Democratic in the last three elections) may surprise many people by going for Bush. A poll by the Detroit News, released today, showed Bush in the lead (contrary to several recent national polls for Michigan): 47% - 43%. Here are some excerpts:

=====================================
Political experts say Kerry must take Michigan to win the election. Should Bush win a majority here, he’ll likely cruise to a comfortable victory.

Bush has a commanding 18-point lead among men, but Kerry leads by seven points among women [ahem]. In Metro Detroit, Kerry held a 48 percent to 41 percent lead while Bush led outstate, 51 percent to 38 percent. Kerry is expected to do well in the city of Detroit, while Bush needs to take Oakland and Macomb counties [just north of Detroit] and turn out his base on the west side of the state to win.

Among Protestant voters, Bush led 52 percent to 39 percent, and Catholics favor the president 51 percent to 39 percent [maybe I should stop calling Catholics "the dumbest voters in America" LOL -- probably feminists can claim that distinction]. Infrequent church-goers generally favor Kerry, while those who regularly attend worship services generally back Bush. Those who identify themselves as pro-life support Bush, 66 percent to 26 percent. Those who say they are pro-choice back Kerry, 59 percent to 30 percent.
===========================

Undecideds are at 7.2%, while Ralph Nader gets 1.2% The survey was of 400 likely, registered voters, on October 18-19.

Other Good News:

A Fox News Poll of 10-17/10-18 had Bush ahead 49-44 in Ohio (20 electoral votes)

CNN/USATGallup for 10/16-19 had Bush ahead in Wisconsin (10) 50-44.

Mason-Dixon 10/15-10/18 has Bush leading in Iowa (7) 49-43.

Bush is leading in some polls now in New Hampshire (4), so that Real Clear Politics has placed the state back in the "toss-up" category.

As of today, that same website has Bush winning in the electoral college 227-189.

The Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll has Bush leading 49-46, and shows Bush leading in electoral votes 222-190. Recent Rasmussen polling has Minnesota (10) and Ohio (20) both tied at 47-47, and New Hampshire (4) has also been placed in the toss-up category.

The overall trend (in my opinion) seems to be a slight surge for Bush, though the swing / battleground / toss-up states are proving quite "stubborn" and slow to make up their collective minds.

Wednesday, October 20, 2004


Electoral map as of 10-19-04 (click on map for larger image), according to the "Real Clear Politics" website. I have been predicting a Bush win in Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico. If he wins those states, and we give all the other undecided electoral votes to Kerry (assuming the rest of the projections are accurate), Bush wins 279-259. If Kerry takes Ohio and the rest is the same, Kerry wins 279-259 (but if Bush can win either Minnesota or Wisconsin in that scenario, it is a tie: 269 each, and the Republican-majority House decides the election). Real Clear Politics states that Bush has to win both Florida and Ohio to win (he's up 4 or 5 in Florida). Kerry has to win one or the other. If he loses both states (according to RCP), he has little chance of winning. Pray for the voters in Ohio! :-)

Photograph of Cardinal Newman, 1885, by Louis Barraud. The poet Francis Turner Palgrave described Newman a year later: "[his voice had] much of its old strange sweetness . . . the look of almost anxious searching had passed into the look of perfect peace. His mind was not only bright as ever [at 85], but with the cheerfulness and humour of youth. [He welcomed me with] great and perfect humility."

Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Questions & Answers on Cardinal Newman's Philosophical & Epistemological Commitments (Contra Tim Enloe)

For background, see my compilation of Tim's remarks: Cardinal Newman the Big Boogeyman, and my paper, The Philosophical Premises of Newman's Views on Doctrinal Development and Religious Belief. See also the previous version of the latter paper, which was a dialogue with Tim. Tim's words will be in blue. Bolded emphases are presently added. Italics are in the originals.

Tim's "Generally Negative" Assessment of Cardinal Newman's Thought

This was documented in the "Boogeyman" paper above. Among many other things, Tim has stated that Newman utilizes "stupid slogans," that he is "stuffy and pretentious;" he remarked with dripping sarcasm about the famous, very influential Essay on Development, that it was "the capstone of all Christian historiographical work, forever and ever, amen," and a "brilliant theory," and referred to him as "'the Great One', Whose Hallowed Little Pinky Contains the Summa of All Patristic Knowledge." Even without sarcasm, Tim (in stunningly sophomoric fashion) mocks "Newman's supposed 'brilliance'." Tim thinks that "the whole 'development' game is fundamentally flawed at its root," because, after all, he has "read enough of [well-known Church historian Philip] Schaff." He looks forward to a "future project where I would basically rip Newman's realist arguments to shreds with Abelard and Ockham's anti-realist arguments, just to show how silly the whole project of trying to attain The Grand Meaning is in the first place" -- which would be "fun."

He doesn't have much interest in Newman (widely considered one of the greatest theological minds of the 19th century and indeed, of all time); in fact he "would be happy not even talking about Newman at all." Very recently (lest anyone think he believes differently now) he reiterated this yawning apathy: "I’m really not all that interested in Newman . . . Newman is a “curiosity” for me; nothing more." Tim believes that "Newman was largely only a gifted amateur in historical work." He feels somehow qualified to opine that "I've seen through numerous citations of some of his lesser known works how he seems nearly totally unable to handle the idea of historical sequence and chronological context. He's 1/3 flashy rhetoric, 1/3 philosophical speculation, and 1/3 historical hobby-ist." Why? Well, because he is "refracting Newman through my serious studies of rhetoric, philosophy, and actual historical texts" (Tim doesn't even yet have a BA degree in history). He thinks little of what he describes as "the 'Newmanian' claptrap of 'development as undeniable key to properly understanding Church history'."

Tim finds Newman "to be much heavier on classical rhetorical conventions than on actual intellectual substance." He remains quite skeptical: "I have read enough of him to be legitimately very suspicious of his approach." Tim is very confident in this regard, and "remain[s] unrepentant regarding my philosophical objections to Newman's philosophical historiography." Even Newman's celebrated ability in prose doesn't escape Tim's discerning judgment. He describes this as "sheer flowery wordiness" and "fantastic embellishments." Tim himself freely admits to his "generally negative opinion on Newman and his theory." Indeed, within the last week of this writing, Tim again expressed his overall opinion: "I’m more convinced now than ever before that my general critiques of him have been and still are right."

Was Cardinal Newman a "Rationalist"?

Tim wrote:

Catholic Newmanites . . . do not really even have to take the historical details seriously. For it is not the details that matter, but the process--or at least, The Great Idea that "objectively" speaking "The Process" has happened and that we can accurately reconstruct it via our rational(istic) intellects. But that's the biggest problem with the whole thing: it's sheer assumption that it's own concept of "The Process" is somehow rationally self-evident. Just formulate the premises and spin the syllogisms and VOILA! "certainty of faith". It's all smoke and mirrors, convincing only to rationalists, who are, oddly it seems, utterly blind to how the exact same rationalistic process can be and has been used to justify many different concepts of "The Process" than their own. That's why I pit Schaff against Newman and reject them both. . . . It's all about "faith" you see. Faith that only their minds have the accurate insight into supra-historical reality, that is.

(11-28-03)

I don't have to actually read Newman to be able to criticize the inherent rationalism of that mode of arguing . . .

(12-1-03)

Newman's . . . development has to be waved like a magic wand all over the historical record. . . . waving "development" around as if it's the universal answer to the reams of historical problems created by Roman Catholic claims is at best a non-answer, and at worst a mere rationalistic chimera . . .

. . . the mere concept of “development” somehow logically necessitates adopting the general Roman Catholic view of Church history.

(September 2002)

. . . the intrinsic and question-begging rationalism of Newman's theory of development of doctrine, . . .

(October 2004)

No doubt you will continue to believe that I "don't understand" Newman merely because I disagree with him and call him a "rationalist" . . .

(October 2004)

Replies:

Elliot Bougis, a Protestant blogmaster, wrote, contra Tim, in his excellent blog post, "Necessary Thoughts":
I think Tim oversimplifies Newman’s approach. First, not only should his theory of development be understood in light of Newman’s theory of assent as he articulated it over ten years into An Essay in Aid of a Grammar of Assent. I can’t do justice to explaining Newman’s epistemology, so I’ll refrain from doing it injustice. Suffice it to say, though, that I think Tim too hastily stuffs Newman’s views into the rationalism of Paley and Butler. Newman’s Grammar of Assent, as basically a work of personalism, was so bold precisely because it resisted the impersonal rationalism of Paley. In this vein, I strongly encourage Tim, or anyone, to read Fr. Stanley Jaki's meditation on the Grammar.

Fr. Jaki disagrees with classifying Newman as a "rationalist":
Then there is the Grammar's method that looks very similar to what later took by storm the philosophical and theological scene under the name phenomenology. It stands for a systematic aversion, to use a Pauline phrase again, to reasoned assurance about things that do not appear, that is, are not phenomena. Finally, there is the perspective of the Grammar, a perspective of unabashed personalism.

(Jaki [1] )

Anthony Kenny, philosopher and President of the British Academy, gives a much more accurate appraisal of Newman's philosophical acumen, foresight, and influence:

In the analytic tradition, which is dominant here and in much of the United States, the beginning of modern philosophy is often taken to be the writing, by Gottlob Frege, of an essay entitled Begriffschrift in 1879.

. . . Ten years before the Begriffschrift, in the Grammar of Assent, Newman had made many of the same distinctions which Frege was to make, sometimes in the same terms, sometimes in different terms. Newman distinguished between the apprehension of a proposition and assent to a proposition, between the notional or logical content of a proposition and the realization of its content in the imagination. But whereas Frege disjoined logic from psychology in order to discard the psychology, Newman disjoined the two to downgrade the logic. Unknown to Newman, the logic which he downgraded was in its last days.

. . . in recent decades professional philosophers in the analytic tradition have become interested in the topics which concerned him.

. . . Wittgenstein turned in his last years to the traditional problems of epistemology, seen from a new standpoint. His posthumously published On Certainty covers many of the same topics as the Grammar of Assent, uses many of the same illustrations, and draws some of the same conclusions.

The most influential philosopher of religion in the analytic tradition at the present time, Alvin Plantinga of Notre Dame University, has devoted much of his best work to the question which is at the centre of Newman's book: How can religious belief be justified, given that the evidence for its conclusions seems so inadequate to the degree of its commitment?

(Kenny, 98-100)


Historian of philosophy, Frederick Copleston, S.J. best describes the exact relationship of Newman's thought to philosophy per se:

Newman's approach to the philosophical topics which he discussed was that of a Christian apologist. That is to say, he wrote from the point of view of a Christian believer who asks himself to what extent, and in what way, his faith can be shown to be reasonable. Newman made no pretence of temporarily discarding his faith, as it were, in order to give the impression of starting all over again from scratch . . . it was a question of faith seeking understanding of itself rather than of an unbelieving mind wondering whether there was any rational justification for making an act of faith . . . his attempt to exhibit the insufficiency of contemporary rationalism and to convey a sense of the Christian vision of human existence led him to delineate lines of thought which, while certainly not intended to present the content of Christian belief as a set of conclusions logically deduced from self-evident principles, were meant to show to those who had eyes to see that religious faith was not the expression of an irrational attitude or a purely arbitrary assumption.

. . . Newman . . . is more concerned with showing the reasonableness of faith as it actually exists in the great mass of believers, most of whom know nothing of abstract philosophical arguments . . . he tries to outline a phenomenological analysis . . .

. . . it is obvious that the belief in God with which he is primarily concerned as a Christian apologist is a real assent to God as a present reality, and an assent which influences life or conduct, not simply a notional assent to a proposition about the idea of God . . . from this it follows that Newman is not, and cannot be, primarily interested in a formal demonstrative inference to God's existence.

(Copleston, 270-271, 279)


He specifically details Newman's opposition to rationalism:
He argues . . . that the rationalist conception of reasoning is far too narrow and does not square with the way in which people actually, and legitimately, think and reason in concrete issues. It must be remembered that his contention is that faith is reasonable, not that its content is logically deducible according to the model of mathematical demonstration.

(Copleston, 276)

Copleston agrees with Kenny that Newman was a man ahead of his time, rather than merely a creature and product of it, as Tim often implies:
. . . the growth of interest in his philosophical thought and in his style of apologetics has coincided with the spread of movements in philosophy and in apologetics which, on our looking back, are seen to have certain affinities with elements in Newman's reflections.

(Copleston, 287-288)

Was Cardinal Newman More Inclined to Realism or to Nominalism?

Tim wrote:

. . . I would basically rip Newman's realist arguments to shreds with Abelard and Ockham's anti-realist arguments, just to show how silly the whole project of trying to attain The Grand Meaning is in the first place.

(11-27-03)

. . . for him it wasn't the "facts of history" that were important, but the alleged grander metaphysical meaning of history underneath all the facts.

(11-18-03)

Newman, on the other hand, seems to be simply a clever epistemological theory piggybacking on a fundamentally Hellenistic ontology (Realism) for the purpose of defending a purely sectarian truth claim that simply can't be defended in any other way.

To the extent that Newman posits that history is about “essences” unfolding “logically” through time, he is a Realist, and subject to all the standard objections to Realism—namely, the one I’ve raised about a rationalistic, deductive approach to reality that can’t be falsified because it itself provides the only means for deciding whether something is “true” or “false”. You say that Newman’s theory isn’t like this at all, but I’m not convinced. I have read a little bit of Newman myself, and I see him speaking of “logic” as if it is legislative of reality.

(September 2002)

. . . I disagree with him and call him a . . . "Realist" . . .

(October 2004)

Replies:

Fr. Stanley Jaki makes it very clear where Newman's affinities lie:
Newman was taken up so much with the concrete, tangible facts as to create time and again the momentary impression of being a latter-day follower of Ockham, if not a replica of Mister Gradgrind teaching but facts and nothing but facts.

(Jaki [2], 201)

Philosopher Anthony Kenny agrees:

He was nominalistic in temper . . .

(Kenny, 100)


Newman wrote:

We reason in order to enlarge our knowledge of matters, which do not depend on us for being what they are.

. . . Science, working by itself, reaches truth in the abstract, and probability in the concrete; but what we aim at is truth in the concrete.

. . . There is no such thing as stereotyped humanity; it must ever be a vague, bodiless idea, because the concrete units from which it is formed are independent realities. General laws are not inviolable truths; much less are they necessary causes.

(Grammar, 222-224)

. . . as to reasonings in concrete matters, they are never more than probabilities, and the probability in each conclusion which we draw is the measure of our assent to that conclusion . . . Abstract argument is always dangerous . . . I prefer to go by facts.

(Grammar, 136)

We are in a world of facts, and we use them; for there is nothing else to use.

(Grammar, 272)

By means of sense we gain knowledge directly; by means of reasoning we gain it indirectly, that is, by virtue of a previous knowledge.

(Grammar, 210)


What is the Relationship of Cardinal Newman's Thought to Aristotle and Scholasticism?

Tim wrote:

I've stated several cogent reasons for my suspicions about Newman. The only thing lacking is myself providing, say, a side-by-side comparison between Newman and Aristotle or Newman and Schaff so that my reasons can be fleshed out with specifics. I don't have time to do that right now, and this whole Newman tangent is just a huge waste of my time, anyway.

(12-1-03)

This reminds me very much of Aristotle's concept of "development", which focuses on "essences" residing inside the material stuff and controlling their form of expression. And Newman does use the word "essence" several times, which only strengthens my suspicions in that regard.

(12-1-03)

Somewhere in my notes I have some things I copied out of Aristotle and somewhere else some things I copied out of Newman. I bet if I put them together the convergence of concepts and language would at least prima facie support my objections.

(12-1-03)

Replies:

Fr. Jaki notes in passing that this was not Newman's school of thought:
The answer is not to be sought in Newman's reading of Thomas Aquinas or other scholastics, a reading rather limited.

(Jaki [1] )

Jaki gives his opinions as to Newman's greatest philosophical influences, stating that his:

. . . reading of modern philosophers which, with the exception of J. S. Mill, was not extensive at all. He showed much too great a sympathy for Bacon, Locke, and Bishop Butler, for him the par excellence British philosophers.

(Jaki [1] )


James M. Cameron weighs in on Newman's Christian philosophical pedigree as well:

We are inclined simply to say that he is in the tradition of Augustine and Anselm. Credo ut intelligam is the pervading maxim of his thought and to love the truth, and thus to believe or to move towards belief, is to be filled with the Divine love. Again, we may see in him an anticipation of the Kierkegaardian doctrine of the leap of faith, a leap which presupposes a cognitive gap, as it were, between what we know and what we are called upon to believe.

(Cameron)


Philosopher Anthony Kenny asserts:
Newman . . . was a philosopher in the British empiricist tradition. When he argues he argues with Locke and Hume. He was ill at ease, in his Catholic as well as his Anglican days, with scholastic philosophy.

(Kenny, 100)

Biographer Ian Ker wrote about the initial reception of Newman's primary philosophical work, Grammar of Assent:

Predictably, it was criticized in the Month and the Tablet for its obvious lack of conformity with scholastic philosophy. Newman was not very concerned: it was clear to him that syllogistic reasoning would not solve the problem he had attempted to meet.

. . . The reviews in secular journals were not concerned with the absence of scholastic philosophy, but they noted that the Grammar was in the tradition of Butler's Analogy and the Oriel 'Noetics' rather than of contemporary thought.

(Ker, 637-638)


Fr. Copleston denies that Aristotle was a key player for Newman:
As a student Newman acquired some knowledge of Aristotle. And though nobody would call him an Aristotelian, the Greek philosopher certainly exercised some influence on his mind . . . Of British philosophers he certainly studied Francis Bacon, and he knew something of Hume, whom he considered acute but dangerous; but in the Apologia he states that he never studied Berkeley. For Locke, however, he felt a profound respect . . . 'there is so much in his remarks upon reasoning and proof in which I fully concur . . . ' Besides Locke we must mention Bishop Butler, who exercised an obvious and admitted influence on Newman's mind . . . Of German thought, however, Newman appears to have known little . . . As for Scholastic philosophy, Newman knew little about it . . . the old-fashioned textbook Thomism would hardly have been congenial to Newman's mind . . . His approach was quite different.

(Copleston, 273-274)

What Was Cardinal Newman's Opinion of Idealism, Platonism, and Universals?

Tim wrote:

When I speak of “Realism”, I am speaking of the philosophical view that Universals (also called “generals”, “properties”, and “essences”) are ontologically distinct from actually existing Particulars that exemplify them. Plato’s writings contain at least two versions of Realism (though one philosopher I’ve read says that only one of Plato’s positions is actually Realism and the other is Idealism, so there’s sometimes difficulties even with some of the terms) and Aristotle’s view is another kind of Realism. Through its thorough-going endorsement of Aquinas the Roman Catholic Church is wedded firmly to Aristotelianism, and thus, to Realism.

(September 2002)

Replies:

Fr. Stanley Jaki, author of many books on Christianity and science, who also has a Ph.D. in physics, and specializes in philosophy of science, states about Newman:

He has more scorn than praise for the universals. He does not once take into consideration that every human word stands for a universal. Time and again he seems to give comfort to those who, then as now, take the view that the question of universals can be disposed of by labeling it a scholastic problem.

. . . Perhaps part of Newman's saving grace was that he left uncut half of the pages of his copy of Meiklejohn's translation of Kant's Critique of Pure Reason. At any rate, he saw through Kant and the German idealists. His comment on the monograph on them by Chalybaus, professor of philosophy at the university of Kiel, was as brief as devastating: "I do not think I am bound to read them . . . for notoriously they have come to no conclusion." Transcendental Thomists, better to be called Aquikantists, may take note. If conclusions, to which assent is to be given, can ever be the fruit of mere philosophical reasoning, however genuine, they certainly cannot issue from the miscegenation which transcendental Thomists try to bring about between Aquinas and Kant.

(Jaki [1] )

In a similar article, Fr. Jaki expands upon this:

. . . when Newman explicitly speaks of universals, he comes very close to denying any real content in them . . . He has little use for general man, which he calls the auto-anthropos. For him universals are wholly subservient to individual things.

. . . Newman's thinking is poles apart from Kantianism, and even from that Aquikantianism that is transcendental Thomism, as shown by his flat declaration: "By means of sense we gain knowledge directly." The Kantian principle whereby the mind's categories create reality is contradicted by Newman's statement: "We reason in order to enlarge our knowledge of matters, which do not depend on us for being what they are."

(Jaki [2], 201; citing Grammar, 210, 222)


Ian Ker highlights Newman's goal in his Grammar of Assent:

Newman insists that his purpose is not metaphysical, like that of the idealists who defend the certainty of knowledge against sceptical empiricists, but is 'of a practical character, such as that of Butler in his Analogy', namely, to ascertain the nature of inference and assent.

In the last analysis, then, the Grammar is not a 'metaphysical' work. But that does not mean it is a 'psychological' study. Rather, it is a philosophical analysis of that state of mind which we ordinarily call certitude or certainty and of the cognitive acts associated with it; and as such, it has come to be recognized as a classic by philosophers of religion.

(Ker, 646, 649)


We have seen in the section above this one how Newman was in the school of philosophy exemplified by Locke, Bacon, and Butler. Now, how do those men view idealism, Platonism, and universals? Baptist theologian Bernard Ramm wrote specifically about this, in discussing Butler's famous Analogy of Religion:
In philosophical background he was deeply committed to Locke . . . Locke was famous for his attack on the notion of innate ideas . . . Cardinal Newman was also much impressed with the Analogy and believed Butler to be the most authoritarian voice in Anglican theology . . .

Butler placed himself within this Lockian empirical tradition with its emphasis upon limitation of knowledge . . . Butler renounced both rationalism and idealism and cites Descartes as an example of a philosopher resting his case
upon hypotheses, i.e., upon unverifiable contentions . . . He defends a strict empiricism and a strict inductionism. It is a system which attempts to make both theology and apologetics vigorously empirical and deductive contrasting sharply with any speculative approach to these two areas . . .

Butler follows the pathway of common sense, a reserved agnosticism, and a rejection of speculative metaphysics. He seeks to ground religion -- to use a recent expression -- in brute fact. He is against Plato, Augustine and Thomas in so far as Thomas represents a speculative metaphysics. The ultimate data of religion must be of the same stuff as the ultimate data of science. It must be that sort of stuff which has unquestionable authority to the man of common sense . . .

Butler is telling the world that there is no a priori knowledge of God that is coercive. God's existence and ways are to be deciphered from His handiwork, and our conclusions are not absolutes but probability statements . . . According to Butler no absolute proof for anything exists. The prudential man acts on the slope of the evidence, and when he detects the direction towards which the evidence slopes he acts accordingly . . .

His apologetics proper is built upon the combined principles of probability and analogy, although he does warn us that the proof of Christianity is essentially the total impact of the evidence. Probability provides the grounds for action and analogy the direction.

(Ramm, 107, 109-113, 116)

Philosopher John F. Crosby stresses Newman's emphasis on the "personal":

Newman had a definite pastoral reason for his fascination with real assent. He realized that we human beings are so constituted as to be moved to action much more through the imagination than through the intellect. If our apprehension of the world is mediated too much by universals and general notions, we are left in the position of spectators. But the more we apprehend the world and other persons in their concreteness, the more engaged we become with them, the more capable of acting towards them, and so the more we live as persons.

. . . We have here, then, another reason for Newman’s uncanny power of exercising personal influence in his sermons. If he had spoken more abstractly and had aimed mainly at mediating universal knowledge, he would disappear from his words, and his influence on us would be only intellectual, not personal. In fact, his influence is highly personal because he has this rare gift of affecting us with the concrete reality of God and the soul.

(Crosby)


Newman eschews traditional metaphysics and idealism, according to philosopher Anthony Kenny:
Newman disliked metaphysics of the German kind:

"Let it be considered how rare and immaterial . . . is metaphysical proof: how difficult to embrace, even when presented to us by philosophers whose clearness of mind and good sense we clearly confide: and what a vain system of words without ideas such men seem to be piling up . . ."

The words of the young Newman are politer than those of the young A J Ayer a century later: but the attitude to metaphysics is not dissimilar.

(Kenny, 100-101; citing Newman, Sermons chiefly on the theory of religious belief, preached before the University of Oxford, London: Rivington, 2nd ed., 1844, 210)
Frederick Copleston concurs:

. . . when he is reflecting on grounds for belief in God, he tends to neglect impersonal metaphysical arguments addressed simply to the intellect and to concentrate on the movement of the mind which, in his opinion, brings a man up against God as a present reality, as manifested in the voice of conscience . . . He does not profess to provide demonstrations modelled on those of mathematics. Given this approach, it is not surprising that the name of Newman has often been linked with that of Pascal.

. . . As for Platonism, which in certain respects he found congenial, Newman's knowledge of it seems to have been obtained mainly from certain early Christian writers and the Fathers.

(Copleston, 272-273)


Newman wrote:

. . . universals are ever at war with each other; because what is called a universal is only a general; because what is only general does not lead to a necessary conclusion . . . Let units come first, and (so-called) universals second; let universals minister to units, not units be sacrificed to universals.

Each thing has its own nature and its own history. When the nature and the history of many things are similar, we say that they have the same nature; but there is no such thing as one and the same nature; they are each of them itself, not identical, but like. A law is not a fact, but a notion.

(Grammar, 223-224)

Experience tells us only of individual things, and these things are innumerable.

(Grammar, 44)

Belief, on the other hand, being concerned with things concrete, not abstract . . .

(Grammar, 87)


What Was Cardinal Newman's View as to the Limitations of Syllogistic Logic?

Tim wrote:

I have read him speaking of the supposed inevitably of certain doctrines gradually unfolding in a certain way as people progressively make irresistable [sic] logical inferences from indubitable premises.

(12-1-03)

Replies:

Newman wrote:
. . . science has . . . little of a religious tendency; deductions have no power of persuasion. The heart is commonly reached, not through the reason, but through the imagination, by means of direct impressions, by the testimony of facts and events, by history, by description. Persons influence us, voices melt us, looks subdue us, deeds inflame us. Many a man will live and die upon a dogma; no man will be a martyr for a conclusion. A conclusion is but an opinion; it is not a thing which is . . . To say that a thing must be, is to admit that it may not be.

. . . Logic makes but a sorry rhetoric with the multitude; first shoot round corners, and you may not despair of converting by a syllogism . . . Logicians are more set upon concluding rightly, than on right conclusions. They cannot see the end for the process . . . man is not a reasoning animal; he is a seeing, feeling,
contemplating, acting animal.

. . . no religion yet has been a religion of physics or of philosophy. It has ever been synonymous with revelation. It never has been a deduction from what we know; it has ever been an assertion of what we are to believe.

(Grammar of Assent, 89-92)

Newman expert James M. Cameron commented on these thoughts of Newman's:
These are fighting words, designed to cheer us up, as of course they do. What they say is that in practice the conclusions of demonstrative arguments do not interest us very much, do not move us; whereas considerations that, reduced to propositional form, fall short of demonstrative force, may nevertheless, put forward by persons we admire or in tones of voice that excite us, lead us to do and sometimes to die.

(Cameron)

Biographer Ian Ker elaborates upon similar themes:
It is in fact, Newman argues, the cumulation of probabilities, which cannot be reduced to a syllogism, that leads to certainty in the concrete. Many certitudes depend on informal proofs, whose reasoning is more or less implicit. As we view the objects of sense, so we grasp the proof of a concrete truth as a whole 'by a sort of instinctive perception of the legitimate conclusion in and through the premisses.' Such implicit reasoning is too personal for logic.

(Ker, 645)

Philosopher Anthony Kenny puts it very succinctly:
The Aristotelian syllogistic which Newman sniffed at is now seen as only a small fragment of formal logic. But post-Frege logic, however expanded, and the philosophy of logic which deals with meaning, entailment, and formal proof, still needs to be supplemented, if we are to give a philosophical account of the human mind, with a theory of mental acts of the kind that Newman gave.

(Kenny, 99)

And Newman observes:
. . . logic is useful . . . but it does not give us to know even one individual being.

(Grammar, 226)

Was Cardinal Newman's Theory of Doctrinal Development a Variant of the Teleological Argument (Argument From Design) -- Particularly William Paley's?

Tim wrote:

. . . years ago I had read the major sources Newman himself cites, Butler and Paley, and I was already very familiar with the species of argument which Newman's theory represents: namely, that of the "teleological argument". Now if, in fact, you, who have been an apologist for so much longer than I have, are yourself familiar with works such as Butler and Paley, and the classical theistic proofs, . . .

And if you can be aware that Newman made heavy use of Butler and Paley and that design arguments per se were all the rage in the 19th century precisely because secularists were increasingly pushing naturalistic evolution, I simply cannot understand how you could also be so dismissive of "philosophical" points relative to Newman's arguments.

(October 2004)

Replies:

Elliot Bougis again responds to Tim's mistaken categorization:
My second reason for saying Tim simplifies Newman’s supposedly Paleyesque telelogicalism is because Newman consciously rejected it himself. See Edward T. Oakes’s review in First Things of Philip Johnson’s The Wedge of Truth, especially the last two paragraphs. Newman’s theory of assent, and consequently of the development of doctrine, was highly patristic and phenomenological, and distinctly less scholastic and rationalistic (cf. Etienne Gilson’s preface to the Image Books edition of Newman’s Grammar of Assent.) Newman has such a “teleological”, which is to say personal, view of historical theology because he has an even more deeply personal view of faith and reason. God speaks to us in His revelation, both immediately in our souls and, albeit more mediately, to our reason in the theological and ecclesiological developments of that revelation. To deny His voice in Christian revelation is tantamount to denying His hand in the development of His Church.

Edward T. Oakes writes, in the above-mentioned article:
The problem with this whole line of argumentation is not just that the intelligent design partisans need to reread their Hume, although they do. The man they really need to consult is, once again, Cardinal Newman, who leveled devastating artillery against the argument from design, especially in The Idea of a University, which despite its well–deserved fame has long gone underutilized by philosophers of religion, perhaps because his critique of their work is so devastating. In any event, he rightly calls any attempt to read the nature of God directly from the universe “physical theology,” which, he says, he has ever viewed with the greatest suspicion: “True as it may be in itself, still under the circumstances [it] is a false gospel. Half of the truth is a falsehood.”

[Univ. of Notre Dame edition, 1982, p. 340, from chapter, "Christianity and Physical Science," section 10]
. . . One concludes this book not only grateful for the Pope’s letter on evolution, where all of Johnson’s mistakes are assiduously avoided, but also in admiration for the Holy Father’s lavish praise of Cardinal Newman in his more recent encyclical Fides et Ratio. For in the fewest possible sentences Newman has summarized every logical flaw in this book: “Half the world knows nothing of the argument from design—and when you have got it, you do not prove by it the moral attributes of God—except very faintly. Design teaches me power, skill, and goodness [meaning here, cleverness in craftsmanship], not sanctity, not mercy,
not a future judgment, which three are of the essence of religion. . . . I believe in design because I believe in God, not in a God because I see design.”

So much for Tim's attempt to link Newman directly to Paley and the teleological argument. He is much more in the line of thought of Butler's analogical thinking. Philosopher David Hume (the rationalist) is the one who accepted the argument from design, or teleological argument, which is interesting because many folks (even philosophers) seem to have this goofy idea that Hume was an atheist and that he destroyed the teleological argument. This is not true. In any event, Newman rejected it, contra Tim's claims that his theory of doctrinal development was actually a species of it.

Likewise, Mark A. Kalthoff, in his article, "A Different Voice from the Eve of The Origin: Reconsidering John Henry Newman on Christianity, Science, and Intelligent Design", contradicts Tim's very limited and inaccurate understanding of Newman, especially in his final two sections, "The Critique of Inductive Theology or Newman Contra Paley" and "Newman Ponders the Intelligent Design Movement". Here are some excerpts:
Thus although the natural sciences properly appeal to Baconian and inductive methods, Newman insisted that "it was nothing more than a huge mistake to introduce the method of research and of induction into the study of Theology at all".

While granting that physical theology may claim some merits and that it has rendered "great services" to faith generically conceived, Newman doubted whether genuine Christian faith really owed anything to the work of physicists. To begin with, he argued that the Design Argument owed nothing to Baconianism or modern science. Its force today, he maintained, is no different than is was in ancient Greece.

Well then, so much for Paley, or (perhaps for that matter) for Michael Behe's "irreducibly complex" bacterial flagellum or, maybe even, for William Dembski's "explanatory filter."

He continued by suggesting that physical theology could be positively evil. "If it occupies the mind," he asserted, "it [tends] to dispose it against Christianity." Natural theology proper can only trade in laws. Accordingly, it cannot contemplate miracles, which, argued Newman, "are of the essence of the idea of a Revelation." In short, the god of physical theology was likely to become an "idol." Powerful? Yes. Good? Yes. Wise? Yes. But no more; and, therefore, concluded Newman, the god of natural theology "is not very different from the God of the Pantheist. … I really doubt," he ended, "whether I should not prefer that [the natural theologian] should be an Atheist at once than such a naturalistic, pantheistic religionist. His profession of theology deceives others, [and] perhaps deceives himself".

Elsewhere Dembski has argued that "design should be readmitted to full scientific status." Newman would certainly squirm. Here also would surface Newman's distrust of the connection between design theory and Christian apologetics, a connection endorsed by more than one ID leader, including a director of The Discovery Institute and the publishers of Touchstone magazine.

So while Newman would sympathize with ID theorists' attacks on metaphysical naturalism, he would reject their attempt to reinstate design in science, and consider their assault on evolution much ado about a red herring. The upshot, then, when rating Newman on Intelligent Design remains mixed; apparently one count for, one against, and one shoulder shrug. This ambivalence is important to acknowledge in our day of polarized conversation between parties often bent on dichotomizing for selfish reasons.

In the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy article, "The Epistemology of Religion," it is stated in section 5: "The Relevance of Newman":

Although pre-dating the current debate, Newman's rejection of Locke's and Paley's evidentialism is relevant to the problematic of contemporary epistemology of religion. First he quite clearly rejected the hegemony of epistemology. His procedure was to examine how in fact people made up their minds on non-religious issues and argue that by the same standards religious beliefs were justified. As a result he qualified evidentialism by insisting that an implicit and cumulative argument could lead to justified certainty.

Newman wrote:
I have not insisted on the argument from design, because I am writing for the 19th century, by which, as represented by its philosophers, design is not admitted as proved.

(Letter to W. R. Brownlow, April 13, 1870 in Letters and Diaries, [Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1961], vol. XXV, p. 97, referring to his Grammar of Assent)

And again:
Thus I was brought to the popular argument for a Creator drawn from the marks of what is commonly called Design in the physical world. Led on by Lord Bacon, I found I could not give it that high place among the arguments for religion which is almost instinctively accorded to it by a religious mind. Such a mind starts with an assumption which a man who is not religious requires in the first instance to be proved. A believer in God recognises at once, and justly recognises, the marks of design which are innumerable in the structure of the universe, and has his faith and love invigorated and enlarged by the sight of so minute and tender a Providence. But how is an objector to be met who insists that the problem before us is, when viewed in itself, simply which of two hypotheses is the best key to the phenomena of nature—a system founded on cause and effect, or one founded on a purpose and its fulfillment? It is a controversial question,—not as to what is true to hold, but as to what is safe to maintain. Many things are true in fact which cannot be maintained in argument. What is true to one man is not always true to another. Final causes, says Lord Bacon, "are properly alleged in metaphysics; but in physics are impertinent, and as remoras to the ship, that hinder the sciences from holding on their course of improvement, {106} and as introducing a neglect of searching after physical causes." [Note 6] (Vide my Idea of a University, p 222.) Was Bacon an infidel or a sceptic?"

I happen to disagree with Cardinal Newman (my Catholic intellectual hero) on this point (lest Tim or anyone think I never do that). I am rather fond of the teleological and cosmological arguments, and always have been. They were never intended to "prove" the entire attributes of God in the first place (Newman seems to be vague on that point), only that He is creator and designer, and I think they succeed in that purpose (i.e., by making His existence highly probable and plausible), in conjunction with modern scientific findings.

The point at hand (to remind readers) was Tim's claim that Newman's theory of doctrinal development was practically a species of the teleological argument, stemming directly from Paley because of intellectual and chronological proximity. Materials cited above suggest quite otherwise.

This should be more than sufficient proof that Tim's theory of the "intellectual origins" of the Essay on Development is false. He claimed that he understood a lot about Newman's theory because he had read the precursors of it: Butler and Paley (he even partially justified his non-reading of the Essay on this basis). But since Newman disagreed with the latter and rejected the teleological argument, it can hardly be the case that the Essay was a variant of the thinking of both.

What Did Cardinal Newman Think of Natural Theology?

Fr. Jaki observed:
About the first way, the evidence of nature, he is never enthusiastic, though never doubtful either. It appears but fleetingly in the Grammar.1 At any rate, in his time the cosmological argument was the victim of a philosophically atrophied natural theology in which the argument from design held the center stage. Newman was certainly to the point that the argument from design cannot be a starting point.

(Jaki [1] )

Philosopher John F. Crosby concurs:

Newman could never warm to the God of the philosophers. He kept his distance from the traditional cosmological arguments for the existence of God. He did not deny their validity or their legitimate place in the Church, but he said that they “do not warm me and enlighten me; they do not take away the winter of my desolation, or make the buds unfold and the leaves grow within me, and my moral being rejoice.”

. . . The metaphysical necessities of the natural theologian tend to block the view of the living, personal God, who reveals Himself not just in what He necessarily is but also in what He unpredictably does. In one early sermon Newman exults in the fact that Christianity discloses to us not a divine principle but a Divine Agent. “Here, then, Revelation meets us with simple and distinct facts and actions, not with painful inductions from existing phenomena, not with generalized laws or metaphysical conjectures, but with Jesus and the Resurrection.”

(Crosby)


Philosopher Anthony Kenny concluded:
With regard to the justification of religious belief, Newman gives up the intention of demonstrating either natural religion or Christianity . . . 'For me', says Newman, 'it is more congenial to my own judgement to attempt to prove Christianity in the same informal way in which I can prove for certain that I have been born into this world, and that I shall die out of it.'

Newman's proof for Christianity will only work for those who are prepared for it, imbued with religious opinions and sentiments identified with natural religion.

. . . one may ask: Why should one believe in God and in a future judgement at all? In response to this question Newman makes his celebrated appeal to the testimony of conscience. He is not confident in the probative force of the traditional arguments to the existence of God from the nature of the physical world.

(Kenny, 114-115; citing Grammar, Oxford: Clarendon Press edition, edited by Ian Ker, 264)

Conclusion

We find, then, that Tim Enloe's assertions about Cardinal Newman's philosophical and epistemological commitments are contradicted at every turn by the informed opinion of Newman scholars and experts and Newman's own explicit descriptions of his own beliefs. He couldn't be more wrong than he is, and I suggest that he ought to ignore the great thinker altogether if this is how he feels he must treat him, or else read a great deal more before commenting further and getting even deeper into the rut and dead-end that he has already gotten himself into by (trying to express it as charitably as I can) unwise and uninformed comments.

SOURCES:

Bougis, Elliot, "Necessary Thoughts" (on his blog, October 2004).

Cameron, James M., "John Henry Newman: Apostle of Common Sense?," Faith and Reason, Winter 1989.

Copleston, Frederick, A History of Philosophy: Volume 8: Modern Philosophy: Bentham to Russell, Part II, Graden City, NY: Doubleday Image, 1967.

Crosby, John F., "Newman on the Personal," First Things 125 (August/September 2002): 43-49.

Jaki, Stanley L. [1], Meditation on Newman's Grammar of Assent, Faith and Reason, Spring 1989.

Jaki, Stanley L. [2], "Newman's Assent to Reality, Natural and Supernatural," pp. 189-220 in Newman Today, edited by himself, San Francisco: Ignatius Press, 1989.

Kalthoff, Mark A., "A Different Voice from the Eve of The Origin: Reconsidering John Henry Newman on Christianity, Science, and Intelligent Design". [from the American Scientific Affiliation]

Kenny, Anthony, "Newman as a Philosopher of Religion," pp. 98-122, in David Brown, editor, Newman: A Man For Our Time, Harrisburg, PA: Morehouse Publishing, 1990.

Ker, Ian, John Henry Newman: A Biography, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1988 (764 large pages)

Newman, John Henry, An Essay in Aid of a Grammar of Assent, 1870, Garden City, NY: Doubleday Image, 1955.

Oakes, Edward T., "Books in Review: The Wedge of Truth: Splitting the Foundations of Naturalism," First Things 109 (January 2001): 48-52. Subtitled: "Newman, Yes; Paley, No." See further extensive discussion of the teleological argument, including Newman's views, in the follow-up piece, "Edward T. Oakes and His Critics: An Exchange," April 2001, 5-13.

Ramm, Bernard, Varieties of Christian Apologetics, Grand Rapids, MI: Baker Book House, 1962.

Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, "The Epistemology of Religion," section 5: "The Relevance of Newman".

Superb Article on Terrorism & the Election

The Therapeutic Choice, by Victor Davis Hanson (National Review Online).



Friday, October 15, 2004

Update on Presidential Polls

From Rasmussen state-by-state polls of electoral votes:

Pennsylvania (21) 47%-47 (Oct. 2)
Kerry 47 Bush 46 (Oct. 13) Kerry +1

Ohio (20) Bush 48 Kerry 47 (Oct. 3)
Bush 49 Kerry 47 (Oct. 14) Bush +1

Michigan (17) 46-46 (Sep. 30)
Kerry 49 Bush 46 (Oct. 13) Kerry +3

Wisconsin (10) Bush 49 Kerry 46 (Oct. 1) ---- no new poll

Minnesota (10) 46-46 (Sep. 26) ---- no new poll

Colorado (9) Bush 48 Kerry 44 (Oct. 2) ---- no new poll

Iowa (7) Bush 48 Kerry 45 (Sep. 26)
Kerry 50 Bush 46 (Oct. 12) Kerry +5

Nevada (5) Bush 47 Kerry 45 (Sep. 24) ---- no new poll

New Mexico (5) 46-46 (Aug. 18) ---- no new poll

In my previous post, I gave Kerry the votes from Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Bush all the other battleground states where he led in Rasmussen polls. Those included Iowa, which is now trending for Kerry. So if we give Kerry Iowa, too, Bush wins 299-239, or by 60 points, which was exactly my prediction a month ago, and (roughly) two months before that. It's fun being a prophet!

However, it appears that the Florida race is now (slightly) tightening up again (merciful heavens, please!). Rasmussen has moved it from a Bush state to a toss-up (so that their total projected tally (minus all toss-up states) is now Bush 213, Kerry 194. But they do still have Bush leading 49-46 in Florida. Assuming the worst -- that Kerry takes Florida, then Bush wins by a lesser margin: 272-266 (almost identical to 2000). I am sticking to my prediction that Bush takes Florida again, but either way, he wins.

The overall Rasmussen Presidential Tracking poll has Bush up 49-46, as of October 15th.

The The Real Clear Politics website polls for the battleground states are now as follows (black print listings are my last post's tallies; red are the current ones):

Penn. Kerry 49 Bush 45
(same)

Ohio Bush 49 Kerry 47
Kerry 48 Bush 47 Kerry +1

Mich. Kerry 49 Bush 46
Kerry 50 Bush 44 Kerry +1 Bush -2

Wisc. Bush 49 Kerry 44
Bush 47 Kerry 44 Bush -2

Minn. 46 46
Kerry 47 Bush 43 Kerry +1 Bush -3

Colo. Bush 50 Kerry 45
(same)

Iowa Kerry 48 Bush 47
(same)

Nev. Bush 49 Kerry 45
(same)

N.M. 47 47
(same)

Florida Bush 49 Kerry 46

Kerry has all the leads that have been gained here, but not enough to win the electoral college, unless he can take Ohio, which might make it very close. Rasmussen still has Bush two percentage points ahead in Ohio. I still believe that Bush will take the state.

The average of several polls from this website has Bush leading 48-46. Zogby reports a 48-44 Bush lead, as of 10-14-04.


Thursday, October 14, 2004

The Trials & Tribulations (but Mostly Joys) of Being an Apologist

Jose Molina asked in BlogBack,

Dave, can I ask you a question? How are you able to do what you do?

By God's grace! "God is at work in you, both to will and to work for his good pleasure" (Philippians 2:13). I love this work, because God put that desire in me. This is what I am here on this earth to do. Everyone has a vocation. They just have to be willing to discover it and to pursue it for the sake of the Kingdom.

I'm Catholic and I love Jesus, the Bible, and the Church very much, but I cannot imagine doing apologetics or being a theologian. It seems like a tedious, nuanced, and perhaps frustrating vocation.

Sometimes, but most of the time it is very enjoyable. I have the freedom to pursue whatever motivates me at the time, and to follow my theological interests. There always seems to be something at any given time: doors or opportunities to do more apologetics. I simply walk through them. It's not like being a professor who has to do certain things, give lectures that maybe bore him, or write a paper he doesn't feel like doing. I do have that luxury, though, of course, I get relatively little remuneration.

You must peruse obscure books and chase ideas and beliefs down rabbit holes

Naw, I enjoy it. It's fun, because, like I said, I do whatever interests me at the time. If I am challenged, I get extremely motivated, because I love challenges.

and what do you get for all your hard work? You get people leveling insults like the following: [several examples given from my sidebar]

LOLOL. Every job has its frustrations. I'm sure all of you who have a boss looking over your shoulder, or boring work you don't enjoy, or weird co-workers, or who haven't been promoted or appreciated at work as they should be, or who are struggling with running your own business, have more frustrations than I do.

Opposition proves that I am hitting nerves and that I must be saying something that is effectively getting out my message. This is always the case (excepting those times when we really do screw up and cause people to get angry through our own fault). Virtually all the insults come from anti-Catholics. That's par for the course. They act that way with almost anyone who opposes (or exposes) their falsehoods about the Church or about people (personal attacks), and their false theology. I'm delighted about that, because it strongly indicates that I am doing something right.

Jesus told us we would have opposition, and would be hated (and to even rejoice when we are persecuted). The sad, tragic thing is that it so often comes from fellow Christians. This is how Satan divides the Body of Christ and conquers. I receive far less insults and ad hominem nonsense and slanderous bilge from atheists than I do from anti-Catholic Protestants.

I get a lot "back" from my work. I know I am helping people, because they are nice and considerate enough to let me know that. That's very rewarding and fulfilling because it is what I am trying to accomplish. It makes you feel good, and makes all the trials worth it. This is a "service" profession. I know that I am doing what I am supposed to be doing, under God.

There's nothing like being right in the center of God's will. That's how life is supposed to work, and we aren't happy if we step outside of that "circle." I get to do what I enjoy doing (writing, dialoguing, research, sharing the gospel and the fullness of Catholic truth). I even get paid for it (something, anyway; I can always use more; the bills and debts seem to never end).

The personal attacks are more than made up for by kind folks like you and many others, who have encouraged me and said that they appreciate my labors. You can see those positive remarks on my sidebar and in my two papers, Catholic Accolades for This Website and Non-Catholic Accolades . . . That's enough for me. I know what is behind the personal attacks, so they are ultimately of little concern. Sometimes I get upset, because I am a human being and hate to be lied about and misunderstood, like anyone else, but mostly I consider them almost a joke; a source of humor. When I read the stuff I posted on my sidebar, I bust a gut laughing, it is so funny to me. My wife, of course, plays a crucial role in helping me deal with that junk, too, as I noted in my post about my 20th anniversary. I couldn't have done this without her.

It was much, much harder as a Protestant campus missionary from 1985-1989, because then I got virtually no positive feedback at all from anyone (except my wife Judy). I was doing all this work and only getting negative feedback, and was poor as a dog (at one point we even had to move in with my parents for a year, as a married couple). Two churches I was attending essentially did hardly anything to support me financially (though both gave me reason, initially, to believe that they would). I didn't seem to be accomplishing anything (this was before the Internet and I was confined to passing out paper materials).

It was a very difficult experience to go through. I never questioned God, but I sure didn't understand what was happening to me. It seemed absolutely absurd and ludicrous. I became quite cynical for a while; again, not about God, but about those who call themselves Christians, and who claim to "have a heart for missions." Now it is vastly different, because I have published books, and my website, and blog, and published articles in journals. Everyone needs to have that encouragement on the human level. I couldn't have done what I tried to do in the 80s very long (which is why I gave up in late 1989, thinking that I had been a total failure and not having any idea what I would do for a living).

But that was God's will. Everything is in God's Providence. We must rest in that, whether it is good or bad from our perspective. I think it is fairly obvious in retrospect that He was testing me to see how much I really was committed to my calling. This is how life and the Christian walk is. I had to go through that living hell to get to the fairly good place (humanly-speaking) where I am now. It's never "perfect." But if I pass whatever tests God has for me now, maybe it will be better in the future. Maybe not, too. I (like most of us) will probably have to endure many more trials before the end of my earthly sojourn. I want to accept whatever God has planned for me in the future. We all need to follow the light that He has revealed to us.

All in all, then, I am very happy doing this work. I love to get to my computer and do some more writing and sharing. I always loved ideas, long before I was ever serious about Christianity, and have an insatiable intellectual and theological (even historical) curiosity, so God used those desires (which were ultimately from Him, anyway) to lead me to the field of apologetics.Thanks for asking and for your encouragement! I appreciate it very much. And now I have another "paper"! LOL

James White's Response to My Open Letter

[Link to my Open Letter]

Posted on his blog, 10-14-04:

10/14/04: Quick response to Dave Armstrong’s “Open Letter.”

Dave: Regarding your suggestion that you and I spend an hour on the DL “chatting” and getting to know each other: I don’t believe that would be a proper investment of an hour of our webcast. While at times we do less than serious things for portions of the show, I don’t think “getting to know your local Roman Catholic apologist” has ever appeared on the proposed topics list (not that I generally make one anyway). My conversation on the Dividing Line to which you refer was about people who have no knowledge of my writings or my debates making absurd but deeply personal accusations based fully and completely upon ignorance. And the caller, aside from having said I was yellow-bellied, had no “history” with me that goes back for years and is less than pleasant, including, in just the past few months, illegally altered and utilized copyrighted materials. One does not simply sweep such history under the rug and “make nice.”

If you wish to come on The Dividing Line, then we shall surely seek to accommodate you. However, I would wish to discuss the issues that separate us. You say Roman Catholicism is biblical. I say it is not. Most of the material on the web just keeps repeating the same old things over and over again. Shall we address key exegetical issues, relating to justification, election, atonement, the New Covenant, etc.? This is the kind of interaction the listeners of The Dividing Line appreciate and can utilize. If you would like to do this, we can make arrangements.

Regarding a written debate (something about which you have written often on your blog), I am currently under contract for two books, wish I had time to be working on a third, and have three major articles to write before January. I am teaching a Jan term class, and have been traveling more than ever in my entire life (and more than I really would like). Over the next 18 months or so I am tentatively scheduled to visit England, Singapore, and Israel, all in a teaching capacity. Unless you could suggest a topic that would truly offer something widely useful and helpful that is not covered elsewhere, I do not see how I would be wise to invest time in such an adventure.

Sincerely,

James

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I will not be commenting on this any further, since I desire to "end" our often-ugly interaction on a positive note. I made what I thought was a very reasonable and constructive, positive offer. You see the response to it above.

People can, of course, comment as they wish here. I will likely not agree with everything stated below (just so James won't think my silence means consent to all opinions expressed). But I am certainly curious about the reactions of Catholics, as I also am in the reactions of James' circle of friends and admirers (though not sure where to see those in written form -- unless they are expressed here).