Florida (FL) Poll * October 28, 2010 * Rubio Leads Crist By 7 Points - Quinnipiac University

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October 28, 2010 - Rubio Leads Crist By 7 Points In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Sink Inches Ahead Of Scott In Governor's Race

Word format In the Florida U.S. Senate race, Republican Marco Rubio leads Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running as an independent, 42 - 35 percent among likely voters, while Democratic U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek gets 15 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
In the hotly-contested governor's race, State Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the Democrat, has 45 percent to 41 percent for Republican Rick Scott, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. Another 11 percent are undecided and 9 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind in this final week before Election Day.
Today's results compare with Quinnipiac University's October 13 survey showing Rubio with 44 percent, followed by Crist with 30 percent and Meek with 22 percent.
An October 12 poll of the governor's race showed Scott with 45 percent and Sink with 44 percent.
"Although the governor's race remains very close, CFO Alex Sink has had a good week," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But with one in eight voters still in play and Scott's supporters slightly more solid in support, this race looks like it will go to the finish line as a dead heat. "Gov. Charlie Crist has cut into Rubio's margin, but the former state House speaker remains the clear favorite to become Florida's next U.S. senator," said Brown. "With his supporters less likely to change their minds than those of his two opponents, Marco Rubio is in the driver's seat with only five days to go until Election Day. Most of the closure came not from Rubio voters deserting him, but from Congressman Kendrick Meek's voters moving to Crist."
In the Senate race, Rubio is carrying 77 percent of Republicans, 6 percent of Democrats and 38 percent of independent voters. Crist receives 19 percent of Republicans, 51 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of independents. Meek gets just 1 percent of Republicans, 36 percent of Democrats and 9 percent of unaffiliated voters.
"Gov. Crist has pulled within hailing distance of Rubio, but there are a couple of unique factors that probably work against him in the home stretch. First of all, he is listed at the bottom of the ballot below a number of unknown independent and minor party candidates. And, since he is without a party, he lacks the ground operation that the Democrats and Republicans have to turn out their voters," said Brown.
Sink gets 16 percent of Republicans, 85 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of independent voters. Scott wins 74 percent of Republicans, 8 percent of Democrats and 37 percent of independents.
There is a relatively small gender gap in both races. Rubio gets 45 percent of the male vote and 39 percent of the female vote. Crist gets 40 percent of men and 30 percent of women, while Meek gets just 9 percent of men and 22 percent of women.
In the race for governor, Ms. Sink gets 44 percent of men and 46 percent of women. Scott wins 45 percent of men and 38 percent of women.
"Given that Ms. Sink would become Florida's first female governor, the lack of a larger gender gap is perhaps surprising," said Brown. "She has some momentum, but anything can happen in the final days before Election Day."
Also in Ms. Sink's favor is that she is viewed more positively by the likely electorate. Among likely voters she is seen favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 39 percent, while Scott is viewed favorably by 34 percent and unfavorably by 50 percent.
"The relatively wide gap between Scott's unfavorable rating and his support in the horse race against Ms. Sink is unusual and probably reflects the Republican leaning of the electorate," said Brown.
From October 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 784 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Sink or Scott? (This table includes Leaners)
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Sink 45% 16% 85% 42% 44% 46% 22% Scott 41 74 8 37 45 38 67 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 1 4 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 11 8 5 17 10 12 8
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Sink or Scott? (This table includes Leaners)
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 28 Oct 12 Oct 01 2010 2010 2010 Sink 45 44 43 Scott 41 45 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 11 9 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS........ CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot AS RS Made up 90% 89% 91% Might change 9 11 8 DK/NA 1 - 1
2. Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 43% 18% 81% 38% 44% 43% 25% Unfavorable 39 62 8 40 39 38 53 Hvn't hrd enough 14 18 7 18 14 15 19 REFUSED 4 2 4 4 4 4 3
TREND: Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 28 Oct 12 Oct 01 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 43 42 39 Unfavorable 39 37 39 Hvn't hrd enough 14 18 19 REFUSED 4 3 3
3. Is your opinion of - Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 34% 61% 7% 29% 38% 30% 56% Unfavorable 50 24 77 54 46 55 38 Hvn't hrd enough 13 12 14 13 14 11 5 REFUSED 3 3 3 4 3 4 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 28 Oct 12 Oct 01 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 34 39 41 Unfavorable 50 46 40 Hvn't hrd enough 13 12 17 REFUSED 3 3 2
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican, and Charlie Crist running as an independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Meek, Rubio, or Crist? (This table includes Leaners)
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Meek 15% 1% 36% 9% 9% 22% 5% Rubio 42 77 6 38 45 39 64 Crist 35 19 51 43 40 30 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 2 7 10 5 9 4
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kendrick Meek the Democrat, Marco Rubio the Republican, and (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Meek, Rubio,or Crist? (This table includes Leaners)
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 28 Oct 13 Sep 30 2010 2010 2010 Meek 15 22 18 Rubio 42 44 46 Crist 35 30 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 7 4 3
4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS.......... CAND CHOICE Q4.. Tot KM MR CC Made up 89% 83% 95% 84% Might change 11 17 5 15 DK/NA - - - -
5. Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 33% 11% 63% 28% 32% 34% 22% Unfavorable 35 48 15 39 41 28 39 Hvn't hrd enough 28 36 20 31 25 32 36 REFUSED 3 4 2 3 1 6 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Kendrick Meek favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 28 Oct 13 Sep 30 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 33 33 29 Unfavorable 35 36 39 Hvn't hrd enough 28 28 31 REFUSED 3 2 1
6. Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 44% 78% 12% 36% 44% 44% 65% Unfavorable 42 13 67 53 44 39 24 Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 18 8 11 12 11 REFUSED 3 1 3 3 1 5 -
TREND: Is your opinion of - Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 28 Oct 13 Sep 30 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 44 48 49 Unfavorable 42 34 35 Hvn't hrd enough 11 17 14 REFUSED 3 1 1
7. Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters).............. WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 46% 22% 70% 53% 46% 46% 35% Unfavorable 44 68 19 39 47 41 61 Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 9 3 6 6 3 REFUSED 4 3 2 5 1 7 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 28 Oct 13 Sep 30 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 46 45 45 Unfavorable 44 47 47 Hvn't hrd enough 6 5 5 REFUSED 4 3 3