The Insider's Choice for Election Analysis

2010 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART

October 8, 2009

Below is a list of the competitive and potentially competitive House races for .

Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.

Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member
* denotes possible incumbent retirement
# denotes possible serious primary challenge

Democrats currently have 28 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
Republicans currently have 14 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

LEAN DEMOCRATIC

DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick R+6
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell R+5
AR-1 Marion Berry R+8
CA-11 Jerry McNerney R+1
CA-18 Dennis Cardoza D+4
CA-47 Loretta Sánchez D+4
CO-3 John Salazar R+5
CT-4 Jim Himes D+5
FL-2 Allen Boyd R+6
FL-22 Ron Klein D+1
GA-8 Jim Marshall R+10
GA-12 John Barrow D+1
HI-1 OPEN (Abercrombie) D+11
IL-8 Melissa Bean R+1
IL-11 Debbie Halvorson R+1
IN-2 Joe Donnelly R+2
IN-9 Baron Hill R+6
IN-8 Brad Ellsworth R+8
IA-3 Leonard Boswell D+1
KS-3 Dennis Moore R+3
KY-6 Ben Chandler R+9
MI-9 Gary Peters D+2
MO-4 Ike Skelton R+14
NJ-3 John Adler R+1
NM-1 Martin Heinrich D+5
NY-1 Tim Bishop R+0
NY-13 Mike McMahon R+4
NY-19 John Hall R+3
NY-20 Scott Murphy R+2
NY-25 Dan Maffei D+3
NC-11 Heath Shuler R+6
OR-4 Peter DeFazio* D+2
OR-5 Kurt Schrader D+1
PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper R+3
PA-4 Jason Altmire R+6
PA-10 Chris Carney R+8
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D+4
PA-12 John Murtha R+1
SC-5 John Spratt R+7
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin R+9
TN-6 Bart Gordon R+13
TN-8 John Tanner R+6
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez R+4
VA-9 Rick Boucher R+11
VA-11 Gerald Connolly D+2
WA-3 Brian Baird D+0
WI-3 Ron Kind D+4

47 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-5 Parker Griffith R+12
AR-2 Vic Snyder R+5
CO-4 Betsy Markey R+6
DE-AL OPEN (Castle) D+7
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas R+4
IL-14 Bill Foster R+1
MI-7 Mark Schauer R+2
MS-1 Travis Childers R+14
NV-3 Dina Titus D+2
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter R+0
NY-24 Michael Arcuri R+2
NY-29 Eric Massa R+5
NC-8 Larry Kissell R+2
OH-1 Steve Driehaus D+1
OH-16 John Boccieri R+4
OH-18 Zack Space R+7
TX-17 Chet Edwards R+20
VA-2 Glenn Nye R+5
WI-8 Steve Kagen R+2

18 DEMOCRATS
1 REPUBLICANS

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-2 Bobby Bright R+16
FL-8 Alan Grayson R+2
ID-1 Walter Minnick R+18
MD-1 Frank Kratovil R+13
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes) D+3
NM-2 Harry Teague R+6
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy D+1
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak) D+3
VA-5 Tom Perriello R+5

9 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS

 

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP

LEAN REPUBLICAN

LIKELY REPUBLICAN

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
IL-10 OPEN (Kirk) D+6
LA-2 Joseph Cao D+25
NY-23 VACANT R+1
PA-6 OPEN (Gerlach) D+4

4 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
CA-3 Dan Lungren R+6
CA-44 Ken Calvert R+6
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12
MI-11 Thad McCotter R+0
MN-6 Michele Bachmann R+7
NE-2 Lee Terry R+6
OH-2 Jean Schmidt R+13
OH-12 Patrick Tiberi D+1
PA-15 Charlie Dent D+2
WA-8 Dave Reichert D+3

9 REPUBLICANS
1 DEMOCRATS

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AK-AL Don Young R+13
CA-45 Mary Bono Mack R+3
CA-48 John Campbell R+6
CA-50 Brian Bilbray R+3
FL-10 C. W. Bill Young R+1
FL-12 OPEN (Putnam) R+6
FL-13 Vern Buchanan R+6
FL-16 Tom Rooney R+5
IL-6 Peter Roskam D+0
IL-13 Judy Biggert R+1
KS-4 OPEN (Tiahrt) R+14
MN-3 Erik Paulsen R+0
MO-9 Blaine Luetkemeyer R+9
NV-2 Dean Heller R+5
NJ-7 Leonard Lance R+3
NY-26 Chris Lee R+6
SC-1 Henry Brown R+10
SC-2 Joe Wilson R+9
TN-3 OPEN (Wamp) R+13
TX-10 Michael McCaul R+10
VA-10 Frank Wolf R+2

21 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS

* = potential retirement

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