Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Get Storm Info
   Satellite | Radar
   Aircraft Recon
   Advisory Archive
   Experimental
   Mobile Products
   E-mail Updates
   Audio/Podcasts
   GIS Data | RSS XML/RSS logo
   Help with Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic and E Pacific
   Analysis Tools
   Gridded Marine
   Help with Marine
Hurricane Awareness
   Be Prepared | Learn
   Storm Surge
   Frequent Questions
   Research
   Hurricane Hunters
   Saffir-Simpson Scale
   Forecasting Models
   Glossary/Acronyms
   Storm Names
   Breakpoints
Hurricane History
   Seasons Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
   Climatology
   Most Extreme
About the NHC
   Mission and Vision
   Personnel | Visitors
   NHC Virtual Tour
   Library
   Joint Hurr Testbed
   The NCEP Centers
Contact UsHelp
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Hurricane RICHARD


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
 
RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND
0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY.  THE EYE
ACTUALLY BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR THAT RICHARD HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN.  STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER INLAND.  RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE IT ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.  MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD KEEP RICHARD FROM RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE BACK OVER WATER. 
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WEAKENS RICHARD TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND NOW INDICATES
DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ONCE RICHARD BECOMES A WEAK
CYCLONE IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT IS A LITTLE
FASTER THEREAFTER...LEANING TOWARD A SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE 
SHALLOW BAM MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 17.3N  88.6W    80 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.6N  89.7W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.2N  91.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.2N  92.2W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 20.4N  93.3W    25 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
NHC Active Storms  -  Atlantic and E Pacific Marine  -  Storm Archives
Hurricane Awareness  -  How to Prepare  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 29-Oct-2010 12:09:27 GMT