Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through April 4, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Last season practically all the fun was taken out of the CW renewal process well before Christmas (unless you count Reaper, a show not produced by the CW owners that never really had a chance). This season looks to be exactly the opposite, because a decision on Life Unexpected may not be known until the CW upfront presentation on  May 20. Hang onto your tickets ladies and gentlemen!

Note that Life Unexpected’s ratings Index includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show Indexes contain many repeat airings, so it’s difficult to make an apples to apples comparisons without looking at individual episode numbers. That’s why the show is colored orange in the list with an Index of 1.04.

One Tree Hill is on far more solid ratings ground, barring something unforseen, it has the ratings for renewal.

Melrose Place is dead, certain to be canceled, out of the race, headed for the glue factory.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through March 28, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Life Unexpected’s not dead yet. Its adults 18-49 ratings have been better in the spring than have the already renewed 90210’s. While its women 18-34 ratings haven’t been up to the levels of the CW shows that are already renewed, its ratings do lean female. Can the CW afford to give up on a show with its ratings?

Note that Life Unexpected’s ratings Index includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show Indexes contain many repeat airings, so it’s difficult to make an apples to apples comparisons without looking at individual episode numbers. That’s why the show is colored orange in the list with an Index of 1.07.

One Tree Hill is on far more solid ratings ground, barring something unforseen, it has the ratings for renewal.

Melrose Place is dead, certain to be canceled, kaput, whatever.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through March 21, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Life Unexpected continues to hang on to hope. It’s stayed reasonably steady in the ratings, although not at a level where I’m confident of its renewal. For those fans wanting another straw to hang onto, while it’s not at Gossip Girl levels of CW wished for female 18-34 ratings, it at least skews towards women, with about 50% higher female 18-34 ratings (1.15) as male 18-34 (.75) last night. I would not expect a decision on it until the last minute (no later than May 20).

Note that Life Unexpected’s ratings Index includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show Indexes contain many repeat airings, so it’s difficult to make an apples to apples comparisons without looking at individual episode numbers. That’s why the show is colored orange in the list with an Index of 1.07.

One Tree Hill is on far more solid ratings ground. Conventional wisdom is that One Tree Hill renewal is dependent on contractual issues. It has the ratings for renewal.

Melrose Place has no role left to be played other than canceled.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through March 14, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Life Unexpected continues to play its unique (for the CW) “bubble” show role perfectly. When things seems to be getting a bit bleak, it gives fans a bit more hope. Example: After having settled into a 0.8-0.9 adults 18-49 ratings range, it increased to a preliminary 1.0 rating last night, when other 8pm broadcast shows took dives. A little more hope, but not enough to get it out of the woods.

Life Unexpected’s adults 18-49 ratings have drifted below the range where I’d be confident of its renewal, but its certainly still possible. I would not expect a decision until the last minute (mid-May).

Note that Life Unexpected’s ratings Index includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show Indexes contain many repeat airings, so it’s difficult to make an apples to apples comparisons without looking at individual episode numbers. That’s why the show is colored orange in the list with an Index of 1.06.

One Tree Hill is on far more solid ratings ground. Conventional wisdom is that One Tree Hill renewal is dependent on contractual issues. It has the ratings for renewal.

Melrose Place has no role left to be played other than canceled.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through March 7, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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At least for the Renew / Cancel Index, show uncertainty is fun, and Life Unexpected serves up the first real (ratings driven) uncertainty for a CW show in two seasons. Now that it’s no longer scheduled to repeat each week, there will be even more interest in its once a week ratings. Will the lack of repeats boost its single episode ratings? Last night’s numbers suggest no, but next week may be the real test.

Enjoy!

Life Unexpected’s adults 18-49 ratings have drifted below the range where I’d be confident of its renewal. Note that Life Unexpected’s ratings Index includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show Indexes contain many repeat airings, so it’s difficult to make an apples to apples comparisons without looking at individual episode numbers. That’s why the show is colored orange in the list with an Index of 1.08.

One Tree Hill is on far more solid ratings ground. Conventional wisdom is that One Tree Hill renewal is dependent on contractual issues. It has the ratings for renewal.

Melrose Place has no uncertainty behind it. It will be canceled.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through February 28, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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I’ve been doing these Renew / Cancel posts in their current form for two seasons, and until now there hasn’t been a CW show with an uncertain future (that will be determined by ratings) worthy of “bubble” status until Life Unexpected.

It’s got all the right “bubble show” ingredients. Ratings that are just below middle of the road. The network brass making somewhat positive remarks about it. And an extra twist, it repeats well during the same week, to a largely different audience.

Fans, get ready for the nail biting!

Life Unexpected’s adults 18-49 ratings have drifted below the range where I’d be confident of its renewal, but I’m still leaning that way. Note that Life Unexpected’s ratings Index includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show Indexes contain many repeat airings, so it’s difficult to make an apples to apples comparisons without looking at individual episode numbers.

One Tree Hill is on more solid ratings ground. If it comes down to OTH vs. LUX (although I’m not saying that will be the case), I’d be pretty sure OTH gets the renewal.

Smallville’s return will be determined by the wishes of the producers and cast. It certainly has the ratings.

3/4 Update: Smallville Renewed By The CW For A Tenth Season

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through February 21, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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News that Supernatural, Gossip Girl, 90210 and Vampire Diaries all received early renewals (not surprisingly) leaves only Smallville, One Tree Hill and Life Unexpected among the only real unknowns on the current CW schedule, since Melrose Place will certainly be canceled.

Life Unexpected’s adults 18-49 ratings have drifted below the range where I’d be confident of its renewal, but I’m still leaning that way. Robert noted that the show has done relatively well in repeat airings on Wednesday (which the Index doesn’t take into account). That could lead to a ratings boost when it shifts to one airing per week. Note that Life Unexpected’s ratings Index includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show Indexes contain many repeat airings, so it’s difficult to make an apples to apples comparisons without looking at individual episode numbers.

One Tree Hill is on more solid ratings ground. If it comes down to OTH vs. LUX (although I’m not saying that will be the case), I’d be pretty sure OTH gets the renewal.

Smallville’s return will be determined by the wishes of the producers and cast. It certainly has the ratings.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story

Renew / Cancel Posts Are Taking A Break, Look For the Next CW Renew / Cancel Post On February 23.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 31, 2010):

• Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
• Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
• Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
• Renewed For The 2010-11 Season

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Life Unexpected’s adults 18-49 ratings for its first three episodes (1.1, 1.1, 1.0) put it solidly in the middle range of CW shows and if it can hold there it looks good for renewal. Note that Life Unexpected’s ratings average includes only new episodes, while the rest of the CW show averages contain many repeat airings.

And, if to do no more than let folks know who haven’t been paying attention, Melrose Place will certainly be canceled at the end of the season.

*I have frozen The Beautiful Life’s Index at its value the week of cancellation.

This is a breakdown of CW scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:

Read the full story