Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.
These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris uses the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.
There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.AFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th NY Jets 65 22 11 1 Miami 24 37 32 6 New England 9 36 43 12 Buffalo 1 5 14 80 AFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Pittsburgh 92 8 0 0 Baltimore 8 92 0 0 Cleveland 0 0 94 6 Cincinnati 0 0 6 94 AFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Tennessee 100 1 0 0 Indianapolis 1 99 0 0 Houston 0 0 59 41 Jacksonville 0 0 41 59 AFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th San Diego 56 42 1 0 Denver 43 56 1 0 Oakland 0 2 93 5 Kansas City 0 0 5 95 NFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th NY Giants 93 6 1 0 Washington 7 71 18 5 Dallas 1 16 56 28 Philadelphia 0 7 25 68 NFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Chicago 67 21 12 0 Green Bay 16 43 42 0 Minnesota 17 36 46 0 Detroit 0 0 0 100 NFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Carolina 45 29 20 6 Atlanta 20 34 32 13 Tampa Bay 27 26 27 21 New Orleans 8 12 21 60 NFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Arizona 100 0 0 0 San Francisco 0 53 41 6 Seattle 0 39 48 13 St Louis 0 8 11 81 AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total Tennessee 81 14 4 0 0 0 100 Pittsburgh 14 50 29 0 1 3 96 NY Jets 5 25 34 1 5 13 83 New England 0 5 5 0 5 19 33 Baltimore 0 4 4 0 9 32 48 Miami 0 2 22 0 3 18 45 Indianapolis 0 0 0 0 77 13 90 San Diego 0 0 0 56 0 0 56 Denver 0 0 1 42 0 0 43 Buffalo 0 0 1 0 0 2 4 Oakland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Houston 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cincinnati 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cleveland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jacksonville 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total NY Giants 73 18 1 0 4 2 99 Carolina 17 26 2 0 13 16 75 Tampa Bay 3 18 5 0 8 15 50 Washington 4 2 0 0 48 20 75 Arizona 1 17 59 23 0 0 100 Atlanta 1 14 5 0 15 20 56 Chicago 0 2 18 47 0 0 67 New Orleans 0 3 4 1 1 7 16 Dallas 0 0 0 0 8 15 24 Minnesota 0 0 3 14 0 0 18 Green Bay 0 0 1 15 0 0 16 Philadelphia 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 Detroit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 St Louis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 San Francisco 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seattle 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Nov 26, 2008
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Playoff Probabilities Week 12 |
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Week 13 Game Probabilities |
Win probabilities for week 13 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.
Every week I look at the game probabilities and think they're out to lunch, but somehow they consistently end up 10-4. I'm thinking the same thing this week.
The two broadcast network games on Thanksgiving are likely to be mismatches. But if the probabilities below are right, we have about a 1 in 4 chance that one of the two games will be a big upset. Meanwhile, the Lions 0-16 watch is now at 41%. But if you're a "glass-is-nanoscopically-full" type of Lions fan, the probability Detroit wins out the season and finishes 5-11 is 0.00009.Pwin GAME Pwin 0.92 
TEN at DET 
0.08 0.15 
SEA at DAL 
0.85 0.37 
ARI at PHI 
0.63 0.28 
SF at BUF 
0.72 0.37 
NYG at WAS 
0.63 0.72 
IND at CLE 
0.28 0.67 
CAR at GB 
0.33 0.34 
DEN at NYJ 
0.66 0.51 
NO at TB 
0.49 0.92 
MIA at STL 
0.08 0.74 
BAL at CIN 
0.26 0.37 
ATL at SD 
0.63 0.62 
PIT at NE 
0.38 0.32 
KC at OAK 
0.68 0.60 
CHI at MIN 
0.40 0.31 
JAX at HOU 
0.69
Nov 25, 2008
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Week 12 Efficiency Rankings |
The Eagles were exposed against the Ravens defense. Miami was shredded by a surging Patriots offense. The Steelers offense got healthy against Cincinnati. Drew Brees' near-perfect game pushes New Orleans up 5 spots.
By far, the biggest puzzle right now is 4-7 San Diego who top the efficiency rankings despite another loss. How is it that the league's most efficient team is so far below .500? A total of about 2 minutes of football separate them from their current record and being 8-3, in the thick of the battle for a first-round bye in the playoffs. The Chargers have lost four games within the final 24 seconds of the fourth quarter.
The Colts game is a good example of what is happening to the Chargers. San Diego out-threw the Colts by 8.3 net yards per attempt to 5.6 net yards per attempt. They outran Indy 4.7 yards per rush to 4.0. Each team had one turnover, SD a fumble lost, and IND an interception. Both teams had identical kick and punt return averages. SD totaled more total yards, more first downs, better efficiency and fewer negative plays, yet somehow lost the game.
Throw in two more games that hinged on single plays, although not final-second ones.
I'm not claiming that the Chargers would have or should have won any of those games. My point is that this is probably the best 4-7 team the NFL has ever seen. A few plays either way might have completely changed their record. And despite their losing record, the Chargers only trail the Broncos by two games with five left to play. Don't count them out just yet. The week 17 game between the two teams might determine the winner of the AFC West depending on how the tie breakers sort out.RANK TEAM LAST WK GWP Opp GWP O RANK D RANK 1 SD4 0.77 0.55 2 15 2 WAS2 0.75 0.49 7 7 3 CAR7 0.75 0.55 11 2 4 ATL5 0.75 0.53 1 22 5 PIT8 0.73 0.50 21 1 6 NYG6 0.72 0.46 5 10 7 PHI1 0.72 0.51 10 5 8 NO13 0.71 0.54 3 17 9 MIA3 0.69 0.50 4 23 10 ARI10 0.68 0.54 6 16 11 TEN9 0.67 0.43 12 3 12 CHI11 0.64 0.48 14 8 13 TB12 0.61 0.50 19 4 14 DAL14 0.58 0.51 13 9 15 IND16 0.57 0.54 8 19 16 NYJ18 0.56 0.47 24 14 17 NE20 0.53 0.49 18 24 18 BAL21 0.53 0.50 22 6 19 DEN17 0.50 0.50 9 27 20 GB15 0.49 0.52 16 13 21 MIN19 0.45 0.52 25 11 22 BUF22 0.44 0.43 26 20 23 HOU23 0.41 0.46 15 28 24 JAX24 0.32 0.45 17 26 25 SEA26 0.31 0.49 28 21 26 OAK28 0.31 0.58 31 12 27 SF27 0.26 0.53 27 25 28 CLE25 0.25 0.52 20 29 29 KC29 0.24 0.57 23 30 30 CIN30 0.21 0.56 32 18 31 STL31 0.11 0.56 29 31 32 DET32 0.11 0.55 30 32
To-date efficiency stats below. As always, click on the headers to sort.TEAM OPASS ORUN OINTRATE OFUMRATE DPASS DRUN DINTRATE PENRATE ARI 7.5 3.3 0.018 0.024 6.4 3.7 0.029 0.42 ATL 7.2 4.4 0.019 0.009 6.3 4.9 0.024 0.31 BAL 5.7 3.9 0.030 0.023 5.4 3.5 0.055 0.45 BUF 6.7 3.9 0.034 0.029 6.2 4.3 0.020 0.30 CAR 6.5 4.4 0.029 0.015 5.5 4.0 0.025 0.38 CHI 5.8 4.0 0.017 0.018 5.8 3.3 0.039 0.34 CIN 4.2 3.4 0.029 0.028 6.3 4.1 0.022 0.32 CLE 5.4 4.2 0.029 0.024 7.2 4.5 0.046 0.33 DAL 6.9 4.3 0.036 0.032 5.5 4.1 0.014 0.50 DEN 7.2 4.4 0.029 0.023 7.0 4.8 0.011 0.36 DET 5.2 3.9 0.039 0.034 7.7 4.9 0.007 0.39 GB 6.3 3.9 0.025 0.027 5.5 4.8 0.048 0.52 HOU 7.0 4.4 0.045 0.026 6.9 4.5 0.029 0.29 IND 6.3 3.5 0.024 0.006 6.3 4.3 0.030 0.35 JAX 5.7 4.1 0.022 0.016 6.7 4.2 0.032 0.44 KC 5.1 4.9 0.029 0.026 7.6 5.0 0.029 0.31 MIA 7.2 4.1 0.017 0.014 6.8 3.8 0.022 0.33 MIN 5.6 4.4 0.040 0.023 6.2 3.1 0.021 0.41 NE 6.2 4.2 0.021 0.018 6.9 3.9 0.034 0.25 NO 8.1 3.7 0.028 0.024 6.4 4.2 0.026 0.40 NYG 6.4 5.1 0.021 0.019 5.4 3.8 0.042 0.49 NYJ 6.2 4.5 0.040 0.024 6.1 3.4 0.023 0.28 OAK 4.9 4.2 0.021 0.034 6.1 4.7 0.037 0.46 PHI 6.2 4.0 0.030 0.017 5.3 3.5 0.025 0.34 PIT 6.1 3.6 0.033 0.022 4.4 2.9 0.029 0.43 SD 7.9 3.9 0.031 0.016 6.3 4.1 0.016 0.32 SF 6.2 4.2 0.042 0.040 6.6 3.6 0.026 0.44 SEA 4.6 4.4 0.038 0.013 6.9 4.0 0.013 0.27 STL 5.1 3.8 0.041 0.027 7.5 4.9 0.019 0.44 TB 6.1 4.1 0.023 0.020 5.4 3.9 0.042 0.45 TEN 6.1 4.0 0.018 0.018 5.0 4.0 0.041 0.37 WAS 5.8 4.6 0.009 0.015 5.5 3.9 0.028 0.34 Avg 6.2 4.1 0.028 0.022 6.2 4.1 0.028 0.38
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