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How Ivory Coast's Gbabgo aims to solve his cash woes

ATMs, check cashiers, and Western Union have all reportedly run out of cash in Ivory Coast, a heartbreak for nervous Ivorians in long lines.

By Drew Hinshaw, Correspondent / February 23, 2011

Dakar, Senegal

Half a week into new negotiations over how the two men claiming to be president of Ivory Coast can share power, the political future of the country remains as murky as ever. Yet the spiral staircase downward couldn't be more clearly laid out for West Africa's second-largest economy and the 21 million people trapped in it.

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Elections three months ago were meant to restore the country's biggest city, Abidjan, as the financial capital of the Francophone tropics. But today Ivory Coast finds itself something like an unplugged ATM with no money in the tank and a surrounding mob of goons still trying to screwdriver their way in.

How did that happen? Mostly because the country's currency is printed abroad. When incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo refused to cede power after losing the Nov. 28 presidential election, the Senegal-based Central Bank – which moves that money from the mint through the loan window into the hands of bankers and then customers – abruptly stopped sending cash over.

With no new currency flowing in, and a torrent of money being yanked out of banks by anxious customers, the country's financial institutions began emptying their registers.

ATMs, check cashiers, and Western Union have all reportedly run out of cash, a heartbreak for nervous Ivorians in long lines.

Several of the country's top banks have totally ceased operations, so troops loyal to Laurent Gbagbo have "nationalized" – the opposition says "robbed" – those lenders. Gbagbo's troops have also "requisitioned" – again, their words – whatever cash was left in the Central Bank's Abidjan bureau.

Even the city's stock exchange, now shuttered, received a visit from the econ police.

"They asked us for cash, as if we keep sacks of money lying around in a stock exchange," a local trader told Time Magazine.

And that could just be the beginning. If it is, here's what could come next for a country that seems to be slipping toward a relapse to civil war.

1. Opening day at the Bank of Gbagbo

When Gbagbo's government nationalized the country's failing banks, his government proposed re-opening them as soon as last Monday.

"It remains to be seen whether this can be implemented in practical terms given that financial institutions are short of cash and will still be unable to perform basic inter-bank transactions," financial analyst Samir Gadio wrote in an e-mailed analysis.

After all, it's not like Ivory Coast's shuttered banks suffered bad leadership, spent too much money on bonuses or office rugs, or overexposed their shareholders to subprime housing loans. The banks lacked for money, not management.

2. Double-digit inflation while money disappears

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