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July 30, 2009
Variety watches the forthcoming documentary "By the People," which -- as reporters on the trail noticed -- got far, far more access than any other Obama-related film, in part by starting before he was a contender.
The movie features quite a bit of Obama -- mostly inscrutably -- behind the scenes, as well as a worry I recall too from the early primary days:
Tommy Vietor says he fears a "doomsday scenario": that the primary season takes them all the way to Pennsylvania.
At the time, it seemed quite farfetched.
Posted by Ben Smith 11:13 AM
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June 30, 2008
Texas Democratic Party chairman Boyd Richie emails the state's Democrats that the party will hold hearings on one of the more arcane features of the primary season, Texas's hybrid primary and caucus.
This Committee which Senator West and I have appointed has been charged with studying the current convention/caucus system. Furthermore, based on the testimony taken at these meetings, the committee will then consider this feedback and possibly make recommendations for changes.
The hearing is July 7. Full email after the jump.
» Continue reading An end to the Texas two-step?
Posted by Ben Smith 04:47 PM
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June 25, 2008
Matt Seyfang, who's keeping an eye on today's meeting of hte DNC's Rules and Bylaws committee for us, emails that the committee is going to pass the single challenge, from Texas, on to the Credential Committee.
The challenge appears to be the one from a Fort Worth, TX lawyer and Clinton supporter who argues that the mixed caucus and primary system violates Democratic rules.
[Lawyer Jason] Smith said he's not filing the challenge in some last-ditch bid to boost Clinton. Rather, he wants to see an end to the so-called Texas Two-Step. He estimated that Clinton would gain six delegates if the state's delegation were altered to reflect the results of the Texas primary.
"This isn't anti-Obama," Smith said. "This is anti-caucus process."
The RBC is a party organ, not a court, so a surprise is unlikely. But it's on the agenda.
CORRECTION: The challenge is being passed along to Credentials Committee today, not considered today.
UPDATE: Seyfang reports from the meeting:
It was a very brief meeting – quite a contrast to four weeks ago. There is another challenge from Wisconsin that came in yesterday – it involves a Clinton delegate from CD1. The Star-Telegram article was apparently wrong – Phil McNamara discussed the Texas challenge. It involves a single Obama delegate from SD9 as set forth in the report. In Texas, the allegation was that there were irregularities at the Senate District Caucus. The delegate in question has 10 days from the 23rd to file an answer. If you want, it should be possible to follow up with Phil McNamara or Patrice Taylor tomorrow for more details on these two challenges.
8 states have issues with equal division that have to be resolved. These states are CO, NJ, NM, RI and VA (all delegates) and GA, MO and CT (standing committees). The RBC does retain jurisdiction over this aspect of the process and, according to Don Fowler, the issue is not waivable. RBC is working with the state parties to resolve these matters and it is expected that it will be corrected by the time the Convention convenes.
Posted by Ben Smith 12:51 PM
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June 06, 2008
I posted earlier Chuck Todd's argument that Howard Dean's winning the party chairmanship in 2005, and his role in shaping the calendar, marked an early Clinton defeat.
Matt Seyfang offers an alternate take:
I disagree with Chuck's analysis. If anything, the calendar was Clinton-friendly; it was the most front-loaded calendar in history and that generally benefits the front-runner. The narrow gap between IA and NH and Feb 5 was assumed by most analysts to blunt the effect of the early states. The fact is that Howard Dean had about as much to do with setting the calendar as I did. For one thing, the GOP set the window when they adopted their rules at the 2004 convention, just as the Rules adopted this year will set the 2012 window. Second, the calendar was the product of maneuvering among state parties and state legislators, not the DNC. You might argue about whether including Nevada and South Carolina in the early state group by the Timing Commission had an impact, but in 2006 it was assumed that part of the Clinton base would be African-American voters. At that time, including SC seemed like a move that would benefit Hillary. In fact, if anything, the Clinton campaign had more pull in getting states like New Jersey to move up than anyone. The crush of states on Feb 5 was in fact part of their overall strategy. That had nothing to do with Howard Dean.
What happened to the Clinton campaign was that in their complacency, they overlooked the possibility that Feb 5 could be a draw. Tad Devine, among others, had noted this possibility as early as January or February 2007. The logic of the proportional representation system had to lead you to that possibility. As it became clear that Obama would have the cash to actually mount a competitive campaign by April 2007 — and after it was known that Jeff Berman was running their delegate operation — it was campaign malpractice for them not to plan for the contingency.
Posted by Ben Smith 06:54 PM
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June 03, 2008
From readers in this blog's comments section:
South Dakota:
My Dad lives in a tiny town (2,500) in SD and he's been assigned 1/4 of the Democrats in the town by the Obama campaign. That's probably a whopping 200 people at most. He said Obama's campaign had good, updated lists, a paid coordinator in a nearby town who was proactive at contacting him.
Sioux Falls, SD:
In Sioux Falls, Hillary has outdone Obama for visibility, but considering [Obama aide Steve] Hildebrand is from SD and never too big on visibility it is not surprising. Save the yard signs for the general. The Clinton family has out-campaigned Obama personally speaking, but the Obama field team has been much larger and much stronger in SD (13 field offices or so?). ARG is way off but I suspect it will be close.
Sioux Falls:
I live in Sioux Falls, SD and I voted this morning. I live in a predominantly Republican part of the town, and as of 8:00 CST only 25 Dems had voted in my precinct. I agree with Scott Erb's comment below that Obama must do very well in Minnehaha and Lincoln Counties to balance out any gains by Clinton in the rural areas. It will be a close race.
Billings, MT:
I'm in Billings where there seems to have been more Hillary activity over the last few days. I cannot vote, since I am a Wyoming resident, but my wife will vote for Obama during the lunch hour.
Billings:
Yard signs for Obama outnumbered Clinton about 4 to 1 on the drive in to vote. At polling place it was busy but not slammed. Again, Obama buttons and T-Shirts outnumbered anyone wearing Clinton stuff by about 2 to 1.
Billings:
I too noticed the abundance of Hillary signs place along Rimrock Drive in the highway right of way. It was curious to me, since the Obama signs I saw are on private property in peoples yards, which is more indicative of peoples support rather than signs place by the Hillary campaign in the highway right of way.
Also, a Montana blogger bumped into Bill Clinton in a bar in Missoula, and writes about it: "We live in a fairly small town, so you can imagine the excitment when anyone that is somewhat famous comes to hang out in a public place; let alone a former President."
Posted by Ben Smith 02:50 PM
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June 03, 2008
By the standards of this long, long primary season, this general election is going to be over in a blink.
The primary, which essentially began in January, lasted 17 months. The general election, which is starting around now, will last about five months -- less than a third as long.
It'll be over before we know it.
Posted by Ben Smith 10:05 AM
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June 03, 2008
If you're in Montana or South Dakota, let us know what you're seeing.
These primary day anecdotes, by the way, have been one of my favorite things about writing this blog -- thanks to everyone who's contributed.
It's going to be a late night: Polls in Western South Dakota close at 9:00 p.m., and they close at 10:00 p.m. in Montana.
Posted by Ben Smith 09:56 AM
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June 01, 2008
If you're there, let us know what you're seeing.
Polls close at 3:00 p.m.
Posted by Ben Smith 09:53 AM
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May 27, 2008
DNC member Jon Ausman, whose challenge to the DNC's Florida punishment is on the agenda at a party meeting Saturday, says he thinks the solution will be halving the delegation's votes.
"I think we're moving toward half votes for everybody," Ausman says.
Posted by Ben Smith 04:44 PM
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May 25, 2008
Ben Adler looks at a story that isn't making waves in Puerto Rico:
Puerto Rico, the U.S. territory scheduled to hold a closely watched Democratic presidential primary June 1, is unaccustomed to cutting such a high-profile role in presidential politics.
Indeed, you have to look back roughly a decade to find the last time Puerto Rico played a starring role in mainland politics — the summer of 1999, when President Bill Clinton drew sharp criticism by offering clemency to 16 imprisoned Puerto Rican nationalists who belonged to an organization responsible for more than 100 bombings in the U.S. and Puerto Rico between 1974 and 1983.
At the time, Clinton was accused of attempting to curry favor with the large Puerto Rican community in New York, where Hillary Rodham Clinton was preparing to run for an open Senate seat. In response, the Republican-controlled House overwhelmingly passed a resolution stating, "President Clinton should not have offered or granted clemency to the FALN terrorists." The political backlash proved severe enough that Mrs. Clinton, then the first lady, ended up publicly opposing her husband's offer, saying she had nothing to do with it.
Yet for all the controversy surrounding the episode, nary a word is heard about it as Clinton and Barack Obama battle for the 63 delegates at stake in Puerto Rico's primary.
"It's a highly charged issue, but it has not been an issue in Puerto Rico [this year] because it is pretty far back and there has been a desire to get past that conflict," said Kenneth McClintock, president of the Senate in Puerto Rico and co-chairman of Clinton's campaign there.
Posted by Avi Zenilman 11:49 AM
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May 20, 2008
Some great anecdotes from the comments section on voting in Kentucky and Oregon, with the usual caveats that these are unconfirmed and that this sample of Politico readers does not include all Americans (though we're getting there) and leans Obama.
Oregon:
My mailman said he did an exit poll of those on his route and reports that it is running 2 to 1 for Obama, and he is hearing similar results from mail carriers through out the state.
Eugene, Ore.:
Since there aren't any voting places here, there aren't any lines or polling numbers to speak of, but there are still people on street corners with Obama signs and lots of people honking. Even in neighboring Springfield, which is generally more lower-income and working-class, there's very visible Obama support.
Washington County, Ore.:
It's raining a bit here in Washington County, which is traditionally the swing between Portland Metro and the rest of the state. I'll be walking my precinct in a little bit for GOTV, with a list (short) of Dem folks who according to the secretary of state's database haven't turned in their ballots yet. On the ground? The clear runaway winner of the battle of the lawn signs is Ron Paul, who has signs everywhere. I wonder if that will translate into a significant (whatever significant means) protest vote against McCain. Could be the under-the-radar story of what is shaping up to be a predictable 20-point Obama victory on the Dem side.
Kentucky:
Like many people, I got up early to vote for Obama. My neighborhood of mixed-race, upper-middle-income professionals told local canvassing individuals that most neighbors were voting for Obama. Our state population has a much larger, well-educated and open-minded base of voters than what is usually portrayed by the media. Unfortunately, the media tend to find the most idle people on the street to interview. These folks are generally not truly representative of the "hard-working" people (who happen to be of many ethnic backgrounds in our state).
Kentucky-ish:
Native Kentuckyian living on the left coast. Called my mom this morning. Both her and her mother are voting for McCain (they seem quite convinced Obama is a Muslim). Called my grandma on my father's side. She's an 82-year-old Democrat-for-life. She can't stand Hillary and has mixed feelings about voting for a black man. Tried to convince her that it should not make a difference; who knows if she'll actually go vote today.
Bowling Green, Ky.:
I live near Bowling Green, just across the border in Tennessee. Light turnout reported from my friend who went to vote earlier today. I've noticed a few Clinton bumper stickers and signs here and there, and a couple Obama as well. But not a lot. Clinton country.
Paducah, Ky.:
I think Obama is going to do better than the national media claims. His base is in Louisville and Lexington, yet the western part of the state borders Illinois. We had ads for his 2004 Senate race, and he has been covered by the local press in Paducah because we border Metropolis, Ill., and other parts of Southern Illinois. While normally Clinton should do well in western Kentucky, the spillover effect from positive home-state media coverage over the last few years should not be underestimated. He is going to win Paducah.
Louisville, Ky.:
It's a little chilly and cloudy, but turnout seems to be above normal. Interesting note: Although Obama hasn't been campaigning in Kentucky, he has had his offices open much longer than Hillary has. At least three weeks longer. Hillary opened one office in Louisville, I think, two weeks ago, but it really wasn't staffed. Obama's offices have been fully staffed from the start. I drove through the black parts of town and noticed lines forming outside the polling sites. There are a lot of Hillary supporters in the eastern suburbs on street corners with signs and such. Louisville may lean toward Obama just from the looks of things.
Louisville, Ky.:
Working-class, mostly white neighborhood that is in the process of becoming younger, more cosmopolitan. Lots of Obama signs in yards. Citywide, I see many more Obama supporters (as evidenced by stickers, buttons). Outside of organized functions, I haven't seen anyone sporting a Clinton sticker, though there are yard signs out there. My polling place was busy at 7 a.m. In Kentucky, independents can't vote for a partisan primary, and people who did not register for a particular party BEFORE January cannot vote in that party's primary. This may hurt Obama.
Frankfort, Ky.:
I live in Frankfort, Ky., in one of those working-class neighborhoods the pundits like to talk about. FWIW, Obama signs outnumber Hillary signs. No lines at my polling place. I believe Obama could have cut into Hillary's lead if he had campaigned more in the state.
Kentucky:
I live in Kentucky. I was the second in line at 8 a.m. Seemed like a very light turnout. I am an Obama supporter, but Hillary has been working Kentucky hard. Obama is much more organized and has people working door to door and working the phones. I wish he had spent more time here, as I think he could have cut her lead significantly. I give her credit for her hard work here in Kentucky.
Lexington, Ky.:
Turnout was extremely low at my precinct. There was only one other gentleman voting while I was there.
Des Moines, Iowa:
Not in a voting state, but I'm here in Des Moines, Iowa, watching the setup for Obama's speech tonight. Upward of four blocks in the heart of downtown are closed off, and with the perfect weather there are sure to be thousands of people in attendance. Nearly every one of my co-workers plans on grabbing some drinks downtown and then walking over toward the Capitol to watch him. An interesting side note: Almost right next door to his speech tonight, there is a WWE wrestling match. Could be interesting.
Posted by Ben Smith 01:36 PM
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May 20, 2008
If you're in one of the states voting today, let us know what you're seeing on the ground.
(And if you can refrain, please don't use this as an open thread for other topics.)
Posted by Ben Smith 10:01 AM
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May 17, 2008
One lovely feature of this endless (though now basically over) primary is the national tour, the introduction to events like, today, the Colorado Democratic Convention in Colorado Springs.
The reader who sent in this photo writes from his iPhone:
There are 10,000 Democrats here today in Colorado Springs, the most conservative city in Colorado. As one person I overheard say, "We're in the lions' den."
Lots of talk about how the eyes of the nation will soon be on Denver during the national convention and turning Colorado blue in the general election.
Terry McAuliffe is here too. He says the party will be united but then cites Hillary as having a lead in the popular vote, which draws loud boos from the majority of the crowd. It takes a few minutes for the crowd to stop booing. Everyone kisses and makes up as McAuliffe says to work hard for your prospective candidates and then vote Democrat no matter who it is.
Nevada Democrats are meeting in Reno this weekend too.
Posted by Ben Smith 02:42 PM
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May 15, 2008
Ed Rendell and Bob Casey, on opposite sides of the Pennsylvania primary, send an email to Pennsylvania Democrats calling for unity.
They write in the fundraising email for the state Democratic Party.
As the top elected officials in Pennsylvania, we promise to lead our troops this fall in a UNIFIED fashion that will bring home another resounding victory for the Keystone State, for our nominee and for our country.
Full email after the jump.
» Continue reading Coming together
Posted by Ben Smith 03:52 PM
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May 13, 2008
Ken Vogel does the honors on this excellent primary day Politico feature.
One that struck me:
The Edwards protest vote. John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator who ended his Democratic presidential campaign in January, remains on the ballot in West Virginia. And he polled at 4 percent in the Suffolk poll, popular primarily with men and independents.
If Edwards gets that much of the vote or more, it could add to the night’s woes for Obama and presage problems for him in a general election matchup with McCain, particularly in rural states such as West Virginia.
Both men have courted independent voters, whom Obama needs to offset votes he’s likely to lose from southern white Democrats reluctant to support a black candidate.
“There are people who for some reason won’t vote for Obama,” said David Paleologos, who directed the Suffolk poll. Edwards’ poll showing, combined with Obama’s relatively low favorability numbers (44 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable, compared with Clinton’s 70 percent favorable and 21 percent unfavorable ratings) suggest to Paleologos that “Obama may have to write off West Virginia come November.”
Posted by Ben Smith 02:47 PM
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May 13, 2008
If you're in West Virginia, let us know what you're seeing on the ground.
UPDATE: If you want a glimpse of the culture gap Obama's trying to bridge, take a look at the comments below this item: Nobody from West Virginia, but lots of (apparent) Obama supporters mocking rural white people.
Posted by Ben Smith 10:24 AM
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May 13, 2008
The West Virginia Secretary of State is insisting on identification requirements that appear to exceed those stated in West Virginia election law, a move that could further disadvantage Barack Obama in today's primary and the Democratic nominee in November.
A spokesman for Secretary of State Betty Ireland, Sarah Bailey, said the Secretary of State's office would not advise local election authorities to permit first-time voters to use student or workplace identification to cast their ballots in today's primary.
The West Virginia identification requirement is still far looser than in states like Indiana: It applies only to first-time voters who did not register in person, and permits many other forms of identification -- including bank statements and utility bills.
Bailey said her office interprets the election law -- which calls only for "a current and valid photo identification,"-- to refer to other portions of state law that require a drivers license or other state-issued identification, in order to verify voters' addresses.
"Relying on [drivers licenses] or state-issued IDs appears the prudent course, given how the issuance of those IDs is more highly regulated and scrutinized than college and other IDs," Bailey said.
The interpretation has drawn complaints from a Democratic lawyer in West Virginia, Mark Levine, and from the state Democratic Party, whose chairman suggested he would push to reverse the move after the primary. Bailey said, specifically, that identification cards from Marshall University in Huntington, WV, because they lack addresses.
"Secretary Ireland certainly sympathizes with those voters who were not prepared to show the required form of ID. Perhaps this is an issue our Legislature would see fit to address by a code change."
More detail on the Secretary of State's position after the jump.
» Continue reading Tighter ID in West Virginia
Posted by Ben Smith 10:05 AM
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May 12, 2008
A Democratic lawyer in West Virginia is raising questions about the Voter ID requirements being used by West Virginia election officials.
The lawyer, Mark Levine, provided Manual of Instruction for Election Officials (.pdf) given to a poll worker in Cabell County that appears to overstep state law, and outlaw some forms of identification that the statute permits.
The handbook (excerpted above) would require, among other forms of identification, "state issued photo ID." But the statute it cites refers only to a "a current and valid photo identification," and Levine -- a New York lawyer in the state independently, though he supports Obama -- says it could disenfranchise college students and workers using identification cards from their respective institutions.
The identification requirement only applies to new voters and voters who didn't register in person -- largely, if past patterns hold, younger voters and Obama supporters.
A spokesman for Secretary of State Betty Ireland, Sarah Bailey, said the manual wasn't one issued by her office. The Cabell County Clerk's office wasn't answering the phone this afternoon.
West Virginia Democratic Party Chairman Nick Casey said the state party doesn't have the resources to handle this issue in the primary.
"It sounds like the Secretary of State missed the mark," he said. "Once we get through the primary on Tuesday, we certainly might take a more aggressive tack going into the general."
Posted by Ben Smith 05:31 PM
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May 08, 2008
That incident in Indiana of elderly nuns being turned away at the polls, though reportedly atypical, dealt what will probably be a lasting blow to the GOP campaign to tighten voter ID laws.
Karen Tumulty posts a press release from the Franciscan Sisters of Mary opposing a Missouri law:
"This may sound like a good idea at first," stated Sister Sandy Schwartz of the Franciscan Sisters of Mary regarding voter ID requirements, "but once you stop to think about who would really be affected, this is going to keep a lot of our loved ones from being able to vote." Yesterday in Indiana twelve nuns in their 80s and 90s were turned away from the polls because they lacked the needed IDs to vote. Sister Schwartz and others are concerned about the difficulties the policy change would create for elderly Missouri nuns, as well as other senior citizens, the poor, and minorities.
Full release after the jump.
» Continue reading Press release of the day: Nuns without drivers licenses
Posted by Ben Smith 04:53 PM
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May 08, 2008
As Amie Parnes and I predicted in a story this week, the number of Hispanic Democrats in Florida outnumbers — for the first time — the number of Hispanic Republicans.
Totals, from the Democratic Party of Florida, which received the data from the Department of State today:
418,339 Democrats
415,068 Republicans
345,108 independents
Posted by Ben Smith 03:22 PM
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