Orbital Sciences wins a NASA science mission launch with the Pegasus: Pegasus Launch Report | Pegasus rocket picks up new NASA satellite launch order - Spaceflight Now - June.8.10.

The deal announced Tuesday awards $40 million to the commercial firm for building the Pegasus XL rocket and all the associated support costs required to perform the launch.

Wonder if SpaceX competed for this with the Falcon 1?
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Perhaps we will hear soon officially whether or not Iridium will go with SpaceX to launch its new constellation of satellites: French Guarantee Assures Iridium Next Future - Aviation Week - June.8.10

I mentioned on Thursday that there seemed to be a lot of space traffic this week but I didn't notice there were actually two more launches soon to happen:
/-- Delta 2 launches GPS satellite - spacetoday.net - Mar.15.08
/-- Proton launch fails - spacetoday.net - Mar.15.08

Hope the Proton failure doesn't cause satellite insurance rates to spike. The comsat industry is enjoying a solid resurgence after a tough period.

SPACEHAB has had a tough go of it with the impending Space Shuttle retirement, first COTS loss with the APEX proposal and recent COTS re-compete loss with the ARCTUS proposal.

In their 2006 Annual Report, SPACEHAB disclosed the degree of their dependency on NASA:

Approximately 77% of our fiscal year 2006 revenue was generated from seven contracts supporting NASA. We anticipate that revenue from NASA-related projects will continue to account for a material amount of our revenue in the future. We currently are providing services supporting NASA under five primary contracts. There are no assurances, however, that NASA will require our module or integrated cargo carrier services in the future. We currently anticipate that NASA will not use our modules as much as they have in the past.

You can count on that. Yesterday's SPACEHAB press release speaks to their future business plans...

SPACEHAB Statement on COTS Loss Mitigation Strategies

"While we are disappointed that SPACEHAB was not selected as a winner of the COTS competition, we want to be certain to convey to our stockholders that the Company has been aggressively pursuing other valuable opportunities including growing our profitable Astrotech subsidiary, primarily through our expanded long term relationship with the U.S. Government Office of Space Launch and our announced end-to-end ALLSAT satellite service system. Also, by design, most of the costs and advanced engineering that were invested in the COTS ARCTUS Program are also being applied to advance our ALLSAT satellite system."

If you recall, they also tried to sue NASA after the SPACEHAB payload disintegrated with Columbia over Texas and then firm was almost delisted from the NASDAQ in 2006. I wonder how much longer the firm will survive on its own?

Col. M.V. “Coyote” Smith of the National Security Space Office announced yesterday at the opening of the new Frontier Spaceport in Second Life the preliminary findings of a Space Solar Power feasibility study, which he has been leading. The Frontier Spaceport blog reports that the results so far look good:

Instead of ending the study September 15 as originally planned, the Pentagon Chief of Future Concepts said the study findings were so compelling that he’ll deliver an interim report October 11, in concert with a press event in Washington D.C., and the study will continue.

He spoke eloquently of the need for fleets of spaceplanes and reusable rockets to accomplish the baseline goals of the study, which envisions 40 powersats in geosynchronous orbit producing 10 percent of U.S. energy needs by the year 2050. (Hey, isn’t that the year Gerard O’Neill predicted way back in the 1970s? it sounded so far away then…)

A first demonstrator project in, say, the year 2015 might power a military base, be capable of sending power to disaster areas, or transmit energy to troops abroad. The cost of petroleum fuel, not only money but lives lost in wars fought over oil, is a big driver of the Pentagon’s interest in space solar power. Coyote has gone from skeptic to enthusiast since the study began.

09/07/07 03:53 AM | Posted by TopSpacer | Category Launch Markets

17 comments | Permalink |

I remember at one of the Space Access Society meetings several years ago Dave Salt of VEGA led an informal discussion into the technical and economic feasibility of using a small RLV to launch satellite submodules for assembly in orbit. The initial commercial RLVs are bound to be relatively small and, following the collapse of the LEO constellations projects like Teledesic, the suggestion was that this might offer an alternative market for such vehicles.

As I recall, the general consensus was that while it was feasible in theory most builders of big satellites, especially comsats, were far too conservative to ever try such an approach, especially since launch costs involve a relatively small percentage of the cost and income for such projects.

It's interesting that DARPA is now in fact looking at satellite assembly in orbit: DARPA Program to Launch Satellites Piece By Piece - LaunchSpace.com - July.6.07. While this won't lead to a new launch market any time soon, it will still be interesting to watch how this program progresses.

UP Aerospace will launch its second SpaceLoft XL suborbital rocket on April 28th from the Spaceport America site. It will carry out a Celestis Legacy Memorial Spaceflight Mission. As part of this program, the New Mexico Museum of Space History has announced that it will host Memorial Services For Cooper & Doohan:

The New Mexico Museum of Space History, in conjunction with Celestis, Inc., will host memorial services for Astronaut Leroy Gordon Cooper, Jr. (Colonel, USAF, Ret.), James "Scotty" Doohan and roughly 200 other individuals from more than ten nations on Friday, April 27, 2007...

... The Celestis Legacy Memorial Spaceflight, scheduled for April 28th, 2007, will place a symbolic portion of the cremated remains of approximately 200 participants into space on a suborbital trajectory similar to NASA's early Mercury manned spaceflights in the 1960s. The Earthrise service launches flight capsules and modules into space and returns them to Earth via parachute recovery. Once recovered the Celestis capsules and modules are returned to family members and loved ones, providing them with a flown keepsake.

Leonard David reports on the dilemma long faced by the community of companies and universities developing small satellites. It's been very difficult for developers of low cost, small-payload launch vehicles to attract investment because the small satellite business appears so limited. However, the smallsat community says that many more such spacecraft projects would be initiated if low cost access to space was available. The smallsat community is hoping that new launchers from companies like SpaceX and AirLaunch will solve this conundrum: The Smallsat Search for Low-Cost Launch - Space News - Aug.14.06.

Leonard is attending the 20th Annual Conference on Small Satellites in Logan, Utah this week.

Iridium has found several profitable niches for its satellite telephones:
* Satellite Phone Firm Focuses on Crisis Network: Now-Profitable Iridium Plans Deal With MedStar Health - Washington Post - June.26.06
* Iridium Gears Up For 300% Increase In Alaska-Based Traffic This Summer: Satcom Service Company Marks Fifth Year of Providing Vital, Year-Round Communications for Alaskan Businesses, Government Agencies and Citizens - Iridium - June.19.06
* Iridium Announces First Quarter 2006 Results: Subscribers, Revenue and Earnings Up Significantly; New Products and Services Driving Growth - Iridium - May.23.06

With Orbcomm and GlobalStar also doing well, the LEO telecom constellation concept could start to make a comeback. E.g. maybe lower cost space transport could even make LEO broadband service viable. DSL and cable broadband need more competition.

I was surprised to see in this article so many remote sensing satellites predicted for the next ten years: 139 imaging satellites in the pipeline - NasaSpaceFlight.com - May.29.06.

Don't know what percentage of those will be flown by commercial launchers. In general, though, it seems that the commercial LEO satellite launch business is showing some signs of life. For example, two LEO constellations have indicated they will be replacing their fleets over the next decade:
* Orbcomm has 30 satellites and is planning a $150M IPO . Part of this money will fund development of a second generation of spacecraft to replace the current fleet starting in 2008.
* GlobalStar has 40 satellites and it recently raised $400M, a part of which will go towards a second generation of satellites. However, the current satellites will probably be used till 2011 or so.

Iridium has 66 satellites and is making money but it sounds like the company expects that it can get by with the current spacecraft until 2015 or later.

For lots of information about future launches, see the 2006 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast recently released by FAA/AST. It includes detailed estimates of launch rates for both Geo and Non-Geo orbits over the next ten years.

Masten-Space Systems just posted the following PR. [Note: I'm now listing small payload services in the Shopping Space section.]

New Service Offers Payloads to Space for $99

SANTA CLARA, Calif., April 18 /PRNewswire/ — For $99 anyone can now send a payload into space through a new suborbital space launch service. Masten Space Systems’ new “CanSats To Space” payload program will carry 350 gram, “soda can” sized payloads into space and back. Typical payloads include science experiments such as amateur space telescopes, surveys of cellular mitosis in microgravity, and multi-spectral earth imaging missions for environmental science experiments. Experiments that until recently were only available to scientists with million dollar budgets.

The company’s XA 1.0 suborbital launch vehicle will carry the CanSats into space (at least 100 kilometers) where they will experience several minutes of microgravity and can be exposed to the vacuum of space. The vehicle will then gently return to its take-off point where the CanSats are removed and shipped back to their owners. The vehicle itself provides power and data communications for each CanSat which allows the customer to focus on their particular application.

David Masten, CEO, said, “CanSats have been flying for years on smaller rockets as part of educational programs to teach engineering and space science to high school students. By extending the CanSat capability into space, we are exposing K-12 students to world class science and real world engineering challenges.”

After the introductory period the price goes back to the normal US$199 per CanSat. Qualified educational institutions receive the educational discount price of US$129. Custom payloads that do not need the CanSat data and power services are also available in 1 kilogram increments for US$250 per kilogram. Payloads can be purchased by visiting http://masten-space.com/.

*About Masten Space Systems, Inc.*

Masten Space Systems is a Santa Clara, CA based aerospace company developing the XA (eXtreme Altitude) line of Vertical Takeoff/Vertical Landing (VTVL) suborbital and orbital launch vehicles. The company will begin flying customer missions in the spring of 2008 that will deliver payloads into space for approximately US$25,000. For more information on the company see http://masten-space.com/.

Sam Dinkin tries to separate out credible numbers from the many over-the-top ones in the Business 2.0 articles about spaceflight commercialization: Big Space Business Numbers 2.0 - Transterrestrial Musings - Feb.28.06.

I've noted here a few times that Iridium Satellite and Globalstar are thriving as private firms serving niche markets. They are both doing well enough that they will be launching replacement satellites in the next few years (e.g. see this Globalstar announcement.)
Now comes word that another LEO constellation has gotten the money to launch a second generation of spacecraft: ORBCOMM Announces Completion of Equity Financings; $110 Million in Committed Capital from New and Existing Investors Will Support ORBCOMM's Global Growth Strategy - ORBCOMM - Jan.4.06.

While not a booming business, these LEO systems look to offer opportunities to low cost launch providers. (Orbcomm is independent of Orbital Sciences so it is free to choose another launch company if it offers a better price.)

The company ZeroG Aerospace (not affiliated with the ZERO-G/Zero Gravity parabolic flight firm) is partnering with Up Aerospace to offer the public the opportunity to fly personal items to near space: ZeroG Aerospace Launches Affordable Space Tourism for the Masses: Holiday Shoppers Can Reserve Their Spot and Send Personal Items to Space and Back on March 27th Maiden Voyage for Only $49 - ZeroG Aerospace- Yahoo!/ZeroGAerospace PR - Dec.20.05. (pdf).

Items that you can send include business cards, His or hers ZeroG Space Rings, and a ZeroG Space Box. An option is to go to "Watch the Launch Up Close and in Person!". They include a certification/registery framework to prove that your item went to space.

I hope this kind of service thrives. I've started a list of companies offering near space flights for small consumer and educational payloads.

I'll offer some counterpoint to the essay Spaceflight needs a reality check by Eric Hedman.

* I fully agree that until the Falcon I flies successfully, there is little hard evidence for the claim that substantial reductions in LEO launch costs are at hand. However, even before it has flown anything, SpaceX has attracted a sizable launch manifest. This implies that a market does exist for a low cost launch provider for smallsats and that there is a good chance the market will grow even more robustly once the vehicle has put a payload into orbit.
* It's quite true that the Air Force wanted redundancy in their launch options when the EELV program was created but they also claimed that competition between Boeing and LM would keep launch costs down.
* Why would the Air Force not want a third entrant who could bring both additional redundancy and the possibility of significantly lower prices?
* SpaceX had a narrow window of opportunity in which it could challenge the EELV merger before it was approved by the various parties (Pentagon, GAO, FTC, etc.) that could block it. SpaceX could not wait till the Falcon I flew before filing the lawsuits.
* See Jon Goff's posting about the significant advantages for SpaceX in challenging the merger.
* For decades I've heard that cable, fiber and other alternatives were bound to eliminate the comsat industry. Instead, comsat services like DTH TV (>25M subscribers in the US) and satellite radio (>9M in US by end of 2005) continue to grow robustly. New services like worldwide cargo tracking, aviation broadband, satellite phones for emergency backup, etc. are also growing. As long as they offer competitive prices for their services, comsats will do just fine.
* A significant part of the cost of a satellite is the added redundancy and extensive testing in response to the high price and infrequent opportunity of accessing space. Lower cost, more frequent access to space will encourage lower priced satellites.
* Space tourism offers the best opportunity for a really large space launch market. However, the capability to offer orbital tourism with a ticket price significantly below the current $20M will take a long time to develop. In the meantime, suborbital spaceflight provides a way to build and nurture the space tourism market and also contribute to the development of robust, highly reusable hardware and low cost operations.

Here's an example of why Congresspersons love to take NASA money and give it to local projects: Space Learning Center Gets $1 Million: Grant will cover one-third of cost of facility next to New London High School. - TheDay.com, New London, CT - Nov.13.05. Gets them great publicity back home.

There are hundreds of millions of dollars of earmarks like that one in the NASA budget.

Following up something I said the other day, those startup rocket companies that intend to target the education market should start cold-calling all of the earmark educational projects in their region to arrange for meetings to discuss collaborative projects. It's got to be a lot easier to get money to launch student payloads from them than directly from NASA.

The Wall Street Journal has an article today about the surge in business for the satellite phone companies, Iridium and Globalstar, following the Katrina disaster: Reliable Connections Broaden Demand For Satellite Phones (subscription only).

Some items of interest:
* Iridium has had "10,000 orders since Katrina hit, more than 10 times the pre-Katrina pace."
* Globalstar has "deployed more than 10,000 satellite phones in the first five days after Katrina, a 15-fold increase from the week prior to the storm."
* " Iridium and Globalstar combined have more than 320,000 subscribers today, up from about 225,000 in 2004."
* "Even before Katrina [...] demand was picking up from oil, mining and other businesses that have far-flung employees."
* Motorola seriously considered ditching all the Iridium satellites into the ocean but a private group eventually bought the system for $25 million. "Today, the company, which is based in Bethesda, Md., puts its value at about $650 million."

This certainly doesn't indicate a bonanza for launch companies as appeared would occur in the 1990s with the start of several satellite constellation programs, especially the huge Teledesic project. Nevertheless, the LEO sat companies can now afford to launch replacement spacecraft and will probably accelerate development of second generation systems.

There may also be some new players such as Mobile Satellite Ventures, which according to the WSJ,

is developing a hybrid satellite-cellular communications system. That company envisions a handset the same size as today's cellphones that would connect to a wireless network when available and a satellite when it's not. When local cell towers are not working, calls could be switched instantly to a satellite.

For the original multi-billion dollar projects, the launch costs were a small fraction of the overall budgets. For the current companies and the new players, however, costs will need to be kept as low as possible. Seems like that could play to the advantage of a "discount spaceline" like SpaceX and any other companies that may come along who can offer significant savings over the majors and are competitive with Russian launchers.