Trump Candidacy for White House Gaining Ground

By NEIL KING JR.

WSJ's Neil King discusses how Donald Trump's potential 2012 presidential candidacy has Republican officials increasingly worried about the impact it may have on next year's election.

Dismissed just days ago as an exercise in self-promotion, Donald Trump's flirtation with a White House run appears to be picking up steam as the real-estate magnate moves toward establishing the rudiments of a campaign.

The real-estate developer and reality-television star is reaching out to Republican Party activists, both in Washington and in early states such as Iowa, and is talking to an array of potential handlers, pollsters and operatives.

In an interview with WSJ reporter Kelly Evans, Donald Trump revealed that should he not receive the GOP presidential nomination, he may run as an independent candidate.

In an interview, Mr. Trump said people are finally realizing he is serious. "Originally they said, 'Oh, Trump is just having a good time,' " he said. "Then they were saying, 'Well, this is getting interesting.' Then, as of today they are really taking it seriously. I'm not playing games. I am totally serious."

Mr. Trump called one of Iowa's leading evangelical leaders last week, and has put out lines to tea-party groups in the state. He also is contacting prominent national religious leaders, while checking off other boxes typical for GOP contenders, such as agreeing to sign the Americans for Tax Reform pledge to never raise taxes.

"Donald's as serious as a heart attack" about running, said Tony Fabrizio, a top Republican pollster who has been in frequent contact with Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump told NBC's Today show Tuesday that he plans to make up his mind by early June at the latest. "I think I am presidential," he said.

The steps are stirring excitement in Iowa, where Mr. Trump is set to headline a GOP fund-raising dinner in June. They also are causing heartburn among some establishment Republicans who see a Trump bid as an unneeded distraction for the party.

"Some people may see this as comic relief, but this is not good at all for the Republican Party," said Bobbie Kilberg, a prominent Virginia-based GOP fund-raiser.

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Reuters

Trump addressing a tea party rally in Boca Raton, Fla., last Saturday.

Mr. Trump's near-daily barrage of TV interviews in recent weeks—he did at least three on Tuesday—has diverted attention from the rest of the potential GOP field and propelled him higher in national polls.

He came in third in a survey of Iowa Republicans released Tuesday by Public Policy Polling, well behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee but just two points behind presumed national GOP front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

The spurt of interest in Mr. Trump may be, in part, a sign of low enthusiasm for the rest of the early field of Republican aspirants and potential candidates.

Still, the idea of a Trump run is being taken seriously enough now that some prominent GOP groups—and even some liberal ones—have gone on the attack.

The Club for Growth, an influential small-government group, has blasted Mr. Trump twice this week for past positions supporting a Canada-style national health-care plan and a one-time tax surcharge on rich people. The liberal Center for American Progress on Tuesday cited a passage from his 1987 book "Art of the Deal" in which he questioned whether there was "anything beneath" Ronald Reagan's smile.

Mr. Trump would haul into any campaign an unusual amount of baggage. He has been married three times. He has had a boom-bust-boom business career. He has given heavily to Democrats, including a $50,000 contribution in December to help Rahm Emanuel, President Barack Obama's former chief of staff, win election as Chicago mayor.

Mr. Trump said that if he runs, he would have to sever ties with NBC and his long-running Apprentice series.

Top Republicans ranging from former Bush adviser Karl Rove to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia have also taken him to task for repeatedly questioning whether Mr. Obama was born in the U.S., an issue many Republicans see as a loser for the party.

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But for now, Mr. Trump's bluntness has become his prime attraction. "People are just loving his honesty and his not-politics-as-usual approach," said Bob Vander Plaats, a pro-marriage social conservative, who managed Mr. Huckabee's winning 2008 campaign in Iowa.

"There's just something about him that is intriguing people, and I think it's that he's saying things that other people just think," said Robert Haus, an Iowa GOP campaign operative.

Even some old-line, mainstream Republicans are singing his praises. "Trump is not my top pick for the nomination, but only fools would underestimate him," said Fred Malek, a GOP fund-raiser and a finance co-chairman of Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. "His statements don't seem poll-driven, and I appreciate his directness."

So far, other likely 2012 Republican contenders have refrained from taking shots at Mr. Trump. But some operatives for rival campaigns are grumbling about the red-carpet treatment they say Mr. Trump is receiving in Iowa, whose February caucuses will be the first big test of the 2012 nomination fight.

Republican state party chairman Matt Strawn flew to New York in February to convince Mr. Trump to headline the state party's big spring dinner, which comes just two weeks before a pivotal straw poll in Ames.

Two weeks later, Mr. Trump sent his top political adviser, Michael Cohen, to Des Moines. Mr. Cohen spent eight hours conferring with consultants, donors, pollsters, party activists and operatives, according to a state GOP spokesman.

News of the June dinner has stirred excitement in Iowa Republican circles. Party officials say demand for the $150-a-seat tickets has been so brisk the party is now eyeing a larger hall.

Write to Neil King Jr. at neil.king@wsj.com