Newmark's Door

In B-school it's helpful, apparently, to have peers with entrepreneurial experience . . .

. . . so that you don't become over-optmistic about becoming an entrepreneur.

"Study Links Facebook Use with Narcissism"

New research:

“There was a significant positive correlation between time spent on Facebook per day and two of the personality variables: neuroticism and total loneliness,” the researchers report.

"N.Y. approves blood test for colon cancer"

Here's hoping the test proves to be sensitive and powerful.

Link via Fark, which usually keeps track of all the important colon news.

"People figure the legs out"

Julia Sweeney gives a sweet, funny talk about her eight-year-old daughter's questions concerning reproduction.

"World Family Names"

Can't vouch for its accuracy, of course, but it's fun to play with for a bit.

"What Scientific Concept Would Improve Everybody's Cognitive Toolkit?"

Some interesting people give some interesting answers.

But they could use a lot more economics. After a quick read, the only economic concepts I saw were "externalities", "path dependence", and the kinda-economic "Pareto Principle".

"[A]n extremely careful analysis of cometary orbits"

Suggests that there may--may--be another planet in our solar system.

"Launching Tech Ventures"

Harvard B-school professor, Tom Eisenmann, posted some thoughts for an MBA elective he's developing "to explore lean startup management practices". Here he lists course readings.

"The Smartest Computers in the World"

First Jeopardy, soon the world?

"The 18 Smartest People In The World"

Take with several grains of salt, of course. On a scale where 140 or greater is "near genius or genius" how can you design a test that accurately estimates somebody as having an IQ of 230?

"It's Hard to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future"

Ronald Bailey reviews Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, And You Can Do Better. Sample:

On the accuracy of oil price predictions, Gardner cites U.S. Foreign Service Officer James Akins, who said: “Oil experts, economists, and government officials who have attempted in recent years to predict the future demand and prices of oil have had only marginally better success than those who foretell the advent of earthquakes or the second coming of the Messiah.”

Some things I learned while desperately procrastinating grading papers

My procrastination was initiated by a post by Pete Boettke.  (Though he bears no resonsibility for my character weaknesses.)

Beloit College has a fine sense of humor. (See also the explanation by Beloit faculy member Emily Chamlee-Wright of why office hours are now obsolete.)

Environmentalism and religion really are, as I, for one, have long suspected, substitutes.

". . . five key vulnerabilities to China’s brand of capitalism . . ."

". . . racial diversity is negatively associated with school performance . . ."

And "The Political Economy of H1-B Visas".

The Web: it is the best of times and the worst of times.

Two explanations of why Facebook is making a fortune from ads

"Why Facebook Is Making Billions Off Ads: They Work".

The important column to look at is CPC as that's how much we're paying per ad click, the worst performing advert was at £0.58 and the best performing was at £0.003. That's a difference of 200x. For those of you who aren't familiar with buying ads, a CPC of below £0.03 is practically unheard of on any other ad platforms, and what we're getting on Facebook is 10 times cheaper than that.

David Warsh, "In Which, Finally, I Understand Facebook".

That’s where the advertising comes in.  The explosion of alternative information media in recent years – cable television, talk radio, podcasts, news aggregators, blogs, the web pages of old media and, above all, search – has led to a massive fragmentation of attention, and a corresponding shattering of the once-calm world of advertising.

What Facebook offers advertisers that other news organizations do not, says Gans, is a quality he callsmagnetism – limited content of high value, frequently renewed. Few readers remain on the site for very long.  But they return to it regularly:  they are faithful. And this creates a proposition that advertisers may find compelling. If they want to reach a large fraction of the US population over the next few days, Facebook may be the way to do it. The alternative is to purchase multiple digital impressions in many media, hoping to find the right eyeballs.

"11 Crazy Things I Saw As A First-Year Analyst On Wall Street"

Nina Godiwalla wrote a book "so that college kids know what they're getting into".

Finance Boyz at Duke: beware. 

Where people richer than you send their kids to high school

"The 28 Most Expensive Private High Schools In America". 

List price tops out at $38,800/year. 

" F-Bombs and 'Jorts': 9 Craziest College Rejection Reasons"

It's pretty much a crapshoot getting admitted to the Ivies these days.

Adds Jim Miller, an admissions officer from Brown University: "The truth is that the differences are ludicrously slender and it's very hard to say to a kid why their candidacy played well or didn't play well."

"Albert Einstein, Ecologist?"

Another "true story" of extreme environmentalists blown to smithereens.

"What I've learnt: PJ O'Rourke"

As usual, interesting stuff from Mr. O'Rourke. Including this bit:

Men like dressing as nine-year-olds. They're wearing jeans and T-shirts and sneakers like my mum would dress me in. It's one of the things I don't understand, and there are more and more of them as I get older.

When I was younger I thought that partly compensating for the disadvantages of getting older would be a greater understanding of the world. I'm disappointed to find, though, like P. J., that there are "more and more" things I don't understand.

Link courtesy of Michael Greenspan.

"Why North Dakota is Booming"

A former student e-mailed me recently, "[W]here's the next Raleigh?"

I replied, "From what I hear and read, Austin, Plano, and San Antonio all seem to be attractive--especially Austin. Longer term, if I were to bet, I would take a flyer on the upper midwest."

One article does not a thesis make . . . but North Dakota is looking good. (Well, except for the cold. But maybe "climate change" will fix that.)

"Gates' Future of Education Straight Out of '60s"

I have, on this blog, already expressed great skepticism about the ability of technology to fix the problems of our K-12 schools. So this bit is especially amusing.

"The Seven Most Discussed Scientific Biases"

According to a recent article by David Chavalariasa and John Ioannidis, they are as follows:

Confounding bias.

Selection bias.

Publication bias.

Response bias.

Attention bias.

Recall bias. 

Sampling bias.

Academics should know them, remember them, and avoid them.

"The Myth of Diversification or How to Really Diversify"

Correlations among asset classes seem to be running pretty high these days. This article claims if you really want to diversify you have few good choices except for gold.

Funniest thing you'll read today

Guaranteed. Ladies and gentlemen, the comedy stylings of Jonathan Chait:

. . . the Democratic coalition is dominated by people who favor a conciliatory political style. Substantive beliefs about policy aside, most Democratic voters want their elected officials to take what seem to be reasoned, compromising positions. The Republican coalition, by contrast, is dominated by voters who want their leaders to take strong, uncompromising stances.

Trial lawyers, teachers' unions, extreme environmentalists, et al.: reasonable compromisers, all. How about a round of applause? He'll be there all week.

"10 Actors Who Play The Same Role Over And Over"

Well argued.

"The Most Popular Degrees Earned Online"

Business, supposedly, is #1.

When is a deadline not actually a deadline?

When the government is involved.

Even though the House didn’t approve a new short-term spending bill until well after 12:01 a.m. Saturday, the federal government never officially shut down.

Why?

As David A. Fahrenthold and The Federal Eye reported Friday just hours before the deadline, the White House relied on an obscure federal rule that permits operations to continue beyond the deadline if administration officials have “a high level of confidence” that the House and Senate are on the verge of passing a short-term or permanent spending bill that the president could sign shortly thereafter.

"19 stellar cinematic one-scene wonders"

Fine list, headed by Alec Baldwin's star turn in Glengarry Glen Ross.

"Top 10: Technologies That Will Make You Obsolete"

I don't really think surgeons are going to be "obsolete" anytime soon, but it's an interesting piece.

Harry Meets Sally updated to appeal to today's teenagers

Don't watch while you're eating.