It doesn't matter who wins any of the primaries for Governor in West Virginia next month: Democrats will start out favored to win the general election in the fall.
While the Democratic nominee will start out with the lead regardless of who it is, some candidates would start out with bigger advantages than others. Earl Ray Tomblin is the most formidable nominee. He leads Betty Ireland by 22 points at 51-29 and Bill Maloney by 33 points at 56-23. He's proven to be a popular Governor. His approval rating is 49% and only 24% of voters in the state disapprove of him. Voters like him across the party spectrum- he's strongest with Democrats at 54/20 but he's also at 46/23 with independents and even gets plurality approval from Republicans at 39/33.
The race looks a lot more competitive if any of the other Democrats were to come back and win the nomination. Natalie Tennant is the next strongest, leading Ireland by 6 points at 39-33 and Maloney by 13 at 42-29. Although Tennant still has the advantage on the Republicans her numbers have been heading in the wrong direction since January by several measures. Her net favorability is now just +7 at 36/29. That's a 17 point decline from the previous poll when it was +24 at 43/19. And that 6 point advantage over Ireland is down from 11 in the January poll.
John Perdue posts relatively similar numbers to Tennant, leading Ireland by 5 points at 37-32 and Maloney by 12 points at 38-26. Perdue was tied with Ireland on our January poll so in that respect he's looking like a stronger candidate. But his favorability numbers, like those of Tennant, have taken a downward turn. He was on positive ground at 29/19 previously but now voters are evenly divided in their assessments of him at 27%.
Rick Thompson fares the weakest of the Democrats in head to head matches with the Republicans, leading Ireland 38-35 and Maloney 38-28. He actually trailed Ireland 37-31 on our January poll though so he's seen a good deal of improvement on that front and his favorability numbers have improved a shade since then as well from 17/17 to now 25/24.
Ireland's seen a 7 point net downward shift in her favorability numbers from +14 at 33/19 in January to now +7 at 30/23. That's mostly because Democrats have turned against her. They actually rated her positively by a 31/23 margin previously but she's now at 22/26, suggesting the Gubernatorial campaign is cutting into her crossover support. She's in a lot better shape than Maloney though- he's at 12/19 because there are more Republicans (12%) who dislike him than there are Democrats (6%) who like him.
This race is pretty simple to break down- Democrats nominate Tomblin and he's close to impossible to beat, Democrats nominate someone else and they still start out ahead but with much more potential for a close race.
Full results here
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Obama slumping in Nevada
Barack Obama's standing in Nevada has taken a significant turn in the wrong direction since early January and it appears he could have a much tougher time in the state next year than he did in 2008, particularly if the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney.
Obama's approval rating in Nevada is only 45% with 52% of voters disapproving of him. That represents an 11 point negative shift in his net approval since he posted a 50/46 spread on PPP's first 2011 poll of the state. There are two problems contributing to Obama's poor numbers. The first is that he is very unpopular with independents, only 33% of whom express favor for the job he's doing to 65% who disapprove. The second is that Republicans (89%) are more united in their unhappiness with Obama than Democrats (79%) are in their approval. When independents don't like you and the opposite party dislikes you more than your own likes you, that's pretty much always going to be a formula for bad poll numbers.
Despite his unpopularity Obama does lead 4 of the 5 Republicans we tested against him in the state, albeit by smaller margins than what he won over John McCain in 2008. That's because even though Nevadans may not like him very much they still have a much higher opinion of him than they do of most of the GOP field. Mike Huckabee's favorability is 36/45 and Obama leads him 45-43. Newt Gingrich's favorability is 33/53 and Obama leads him 46-42. Donald Trump's favorability is 32/59 and Obama leads him 47-41. And Sarah Palin's favorability is 34/61 and Obama leads her 50-39.
Mitt Romney is the exception to the Republican unpopularity rule. Voters in the state may not love him- he breaks even on his favorability at 43%- but compared to Obama and the rest of his GOP peers that has him looking pretty good. He leads Obama 46-43, buoyed by a 58-27 advantage with independent voters. He also picks up 13% of Democratic voters while allowing Obama to win just 6% of Republicans. It appears Romney would make a considerably more formidable opponent for Obama in Nevada than McCain did.
The Nevada poll also provides more evidence of another emerging truth- Trump's greatest possible impact on the Presidential race next year would be if he really follows through on his threat to run as an independent if he doesn't get the Republican nomination. With Trump in a three way race involving Romney, Obama gets 42% to 34% for Romney and 20% for Trump. With Trump in a three way race involving Huckabee, Obama gets 44% to 30% for Huckabee, and 21% for Trump. In both cases Trump gets 34% of the Republican vote but only 9-12% of the Democratic vote. Even if Trump ran as an independent and only got a third of the poll support he's showing now it would probably be enough to ensure Obama won the state again in spite of his own poor numbers. A Trump independent bid would almost certainly hand Obama reelection.
Full results here
Obama's approval rating in Nevada is only 45% with 52% of voters disapproving of him. That represents an 11 point negative shift in his net approval since he posted a 50/46 spread on PPP's first 2011 poll of the state. There are two problems contributing to Obama's poor numbers. The first is that he is very unpopular with independents, only 33% of whom express favor for the job he's doing to 65% who disapprove. The second is that Republicans (89%) are more united in their unhappiness with Obama than Democrats (79%) are in their approval. When independents don't like you and the opposite party dislikes you more than your own likes you, that's pretty much always going to be a formula for bad poll numbers.
Despite his unpopularity Obama does lead 4 of the 5 Republicans we tested against him in the state, albeit by smaller margins than what he won over John McCain in 2008. That's because even though Nevadans may not like him very much they still have a much higher opinion of him than they do of most of the GOP field. Mike Huckabee's favorability is 36/45 and Obama leads him 45-43. Newt Gingrich's favorability is 33/53 and Obama leads him 46-42. Donald Trump's favorability is 32/59 and Obama leads him 47-41. And Sarah Palin's favorability is 34/61 and Obama leads her 50-39.
Mitt Romney is the exception to the Republican unpopularity rule. Voters in the state may not love him- he breaks even on his favorability at 43%- but compared to Obama and the rest of his GOP peers that has him looking pretty good. He leads Obama 46-43, buoyed by a 58-27 advantage with independent voters. He also picks up 13% of Democratic voters while allowing Obama to win just 6% of Republicans. It appears Romney would make a considerably more formidable opponent for Obama in Nevada than McCain did.
The Nevada poll also provides more evidence of another emerging truth- Trump's greatest possible impact on the Presidential race next year would be if he really follows through on his threat to run as an independent if he doesn't get the Republican nomination. With Trump in a three way race involving Romney, Obama gets 42% to 34% for Romney and 20% for Trump. With Trump in a three way race involving Huckabee, Obama gets 44% to 30% for Huckabee, and 21% for Trump. In both cases Trump gets 34% of the Republican vote but only 9-12% of the Democratic vote. Even if Trump ran as an independent and only got a third of the poll support he's showing now it would probably be enough to ensure Obama won the state again in spite of his own poor numbers. A Trump independent bid would almost certainly hand Obama reelection.
Full results here
Pennsylvania Miscellaneous
-Pennsylvania Republicans might need to do a really good job with their redistricting next year in order to hold onto the seats they won last fall. Voters in the state say if there was an election for Congress today they'd go for Democratic candidates by a 42-36 margin on the generic ballot, suggesting the party could very well win back some of the stuff it lost last year.
It's interesting to see Democrats with a 6 point generic House ballot lead, given that this same poll found Barack Obama with dreadful approval numbers at 42/52 and struggling in match ups with Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. Obama polling poorly while things are looking up for House Democrats has actually been a theme throughout our April polling though. We've found Democrats leading on all three national generic Congressional ballot surveys we've done this month, even as we've also found Obama's approval numbers hitting record lows.
Usually you would expect the fortunes of both the President and House Democrats to be headed in the same direction but at least for this month that has not been the case. Voters are just responding negatively to everyone who's in charge and the unhappiness is cutting across party lines to affect both Obama and House Republicans.
-Pennsylvania voters may warm back up to Arlen Specter and Ed Rendell some day but apparently three months out of office has not been enough time to win them any forgiveness. Only 33% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Rendell to 55% with a negative one. Republicans (81%) are a whole lot more unified in their dislike of him than Democrats (50%) are in their favor and independents split against him 26/58. Specter's numbers tell a pretty similar story. 32% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 53% with a negative one. He has the same problem as Rendell of Republicans (77%) disliking him a lot more than Democrats (46%) like him and independents go against him by a 24/57 spread.
-There's been a fair amount of speculation that another run for statewide office might be in Joe Sestak's future and if there is he'll have a lot of reintroducing himself to do to the voters. A plurality of voters, at 37%, now say they don't know enough to have an opinion about Sestak either positive or negative. Those who do have one are divided almost evenly with 32% rating him favorably and 31% unfavorably.
-63% of Pennsylvania voters support some form of legal recognition for same sex couples to 35% who think there should be none. The 63% breaks down 30% who support full marriage rights and 33% who favor civil unions. Even Republican voters by a 51/47 margin support either marriage or civil unions for gay couples.
Full results here
It's interesting to see Democrats with a 6 point generic House ballot lead, given that this same poll found Barack Obama with dreadful approval numbers at 42/52 and struggling in match ups with Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. Obama polling poorly while things are looking up for House Democrats has actually been a theme throughout our April polling though. We've found Democrats leading on all three national generic Congressional ballot surveys we've done this month, even as we've also found Obama's approval numbers hitting record lows.
Usually you would expect the fortunes of both the President and House Democrats to be headed in the same direction but at least for this month that has not been the case. Voters are just responding negatively to everyone who's in charge and the unhappiness is cutting across party lines to affect both Obama and House Republicans.
-Pennsylvania voters may warm back up to Arlen Specter and Ed Rendell some day but apparently three months out of office has not been enough time to win them any forgiveness. Only 33% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Rendell to 55% with a negative one. Republicans (81%) are a whole lot more unified in their dislike of him than Democrats (50%) are in their favor and independents split against him 26/58. Specter's numbers tell a pretty similar story. 32% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 53% with a negative one. He has the same problem as Rendell of Republicans (77%) disliking him a lot more than Democrats (46%) like him and independents go against him by a 24/57 spread.
-There's been a fair amount of speculation that another run for statewide office might be in Joe Sestak's future and if there is he'll have a lot of reintroducing himself to do to the voters. A plurality of voters, at 37%, now say they don't know enough to have an opinion about Sestak either positive or negative. Those who do have one are divided almost evenly with 32% rating him favorably and 31% unfavorably.
-63% of Pennsylvania voters support some form of legal recognition for same sex couples to 35% who think there should be none. The 63% breaks down 30% who support full marriage rights and 33% who favor civil unions. Even Republican voters by a 51/47 margin support either marriage or civil unions for gay couples.
Full results here
Trump highly unpopular in swing states
I guess Donald Trump can claim 'victory' with the release of Barack Obama's birth certificate this morning but his shenanigans over the last month haven't done much to endear him with swing state voters. During April we've polled Trump in the battleground states of Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada and in all four of those states we've found that at least 59% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.
In Nevada Trump's favorability is a -27 spread (32/59), in North Carolina it's a -35 spread (27/62), in Iowa it's a -34 spread (27/61), and in New Hampshire it's a -33 spread (27/60).
There are two primary variables driving Trump's bad numbers:
-Republicans don't really like him that much. In New Hampshire his favorability with them is 46/40, in Iowa it's 41/40, in North Carolina it's 45/42, and in Nevada it's 51/37. He's doing well in primary polls because the GOP voters who do like him are pretty inclined to name him as their top Presidential choice. That's different from say a Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney who are mostly well liked even by Republicans for whom they are not the first choice for the nomination. With Trump there is not as much of that middle ground- you either want him as the nominee or you dislike him. Those kinds of numbers will maybe give you a long shot chance at the nomination but they don't make you a viable contender in November.
-Trump is completely toxic to independent voters. His favorability with them in Nevada is 35/57, in Iowa it's 29/58, in New Hampshire it's 23/63, and in North Carolina it's 28/61. His recent antics have ingratiated him to a meaningful chunk of the far right Republican base, but he's completely turned off the folks in the center whose votes often determine who comes out on top in Presidential contests.
To put Trump's numbers into some context he is less popular than Sarah Palin in all four of these states- her favorability in North Carolina is 33% to his 27%, in Nevada it's 34% to his 32%, in New Hampshire it's 28% to his 27%, and in Iowa it's 29% to his 27%.
If Trump's goal was to get a lot of attention this month he's certainly succeeded. If his goal is really to get elected President it was an utter failure.
In Nevada Trump's favorability is a -27 spread (32/59), in North Carolina it's a -35 spread (27/62), in Iowa it's a -34 spread (27/61), and in New Hampshire it's a -33 spread (27/60).
There are two primary variables driving Trump's bad numbers:
-Republicans don't really like him that much. In New Hampshire his favorability with them is 46/40, in Iowa it's 41/40, in North Carolina it's 45/42, and in Nevada it's 51/37. He's doing well in primary polls because the GOP voters who do like him are pretty inclined to name him as their top Presidential choice. That's different from say a Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney who are mostly well liked even by Republicans for whom they are not the first choice for the nomination. With Trump there is not as much of that middle ground- you either want him as the nominee or you dislike him. Those kinds of numbers will maybe give you a long shot chance at the nomination but they don't make you a viable contender in November.
-Trump is completely toxic to independent voters. His favorability with them in Nevada is 35/57, in Iowa it's 29/58, in New Hampshire it's 23/63, and in North Carolina it's 28/61. His recent antics have ingratiated him to a meaningful chunk of the far right Republican base, but he's completely turned off the folks in the center whose votes often determine who comes out on top in Presidential contests.
To put Trump's numbers into some context he is less popular than Sarah Palin in all four of these states- her favorability in North Carolina is 33% to his 27%, in Nevada it's 34% to his 32%, in New Hampshire it's 28% to his 27%, and in Iowa it's 29% to his 27%.
If Trump's goal was to get a lot of attention this month he's certainly succeeded. If his goal is really to get elected President it was an utter failure.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Arizona and Missouri Question Suggestions
The winners of our vote on where to poll this week were Missouri and Arizona. Arizona tied with South Carolina and we're going to do Arizona since two other South Carolina GOP primary polls came out this week already.
In Missouri we could practically do the exact same poll we did in March, which was Todd Akin, Sarah Steelman, Ed Martin, and Ann Wagner v. Claire McCaskill and Peter Kinder v. Jay Nixon. With today's announcement we'll drop Ann Wagner but beyond that it would seem we're pretty much set. If you have suggestions of other candidates, or other questions in general, that we should look at in Missouri please let us know.
Arizona is more of an open field. We're definitely going to test Gabrielle Giffords on the Democratic side and Jeff Flake on the Republican side. What folks would you like us to look at beyond that, and what other questions should we ask there? As always your suggestions are much appreciated.
In Missouri we could practically do the exact same poll we did in March, which was Todd Akin, Sarah Steelman, Ed Martin, and Ann Wagner v. Claire McCaskill and Peter Kinder v. Jay Nixon. With today's announcement we'll drop Ann Wagner but beyond that it would seem we're pretty much set. If you have suggestions of other candidates, or other questions in general, that we should look at in Missouri please let us know.
Arizona is more of an open field. We're definitely going to test Gabrielle Giffords on the Democratic side and Jeff Flake on the Republican side. What folks would you like us to look at beyond that, and what other questions should we ask there? As always your suggestions are much appreciated.
Obama holding up in North Carolina
Barack Obama's poll numbers nationwide aren't looking very good right now but one place where he's holding up pretty well is North Carolina. His approval rating there this month is 49%, with 48% of voters disapproving. Those numbers basically mirror the results of the 2008 election in the state, pretty good given that in our national polling right now his approval spread is running 13 points behind his margin of victory against John McCain.
There are two data points key to Obama's continued decent standing in North Carolina. In most places Obama has maintained his popularity with minorities but seen a significant decline in his popularity with white voters. Here though his 37% approval rating with whites matches the percentage of the vote we found him winning in 2008 and that combined with his 87% standing with black voters puts him on slightly positive ground overall. The other key thing for Obama is that he's at 50/44 with independents here, basically matching his 2008 victory margin over McCain in the state with those voters and running counter to his 37/54 approval breakdown with them nationally.
Obama leads all five Republicans we tested against him in the state. Against Mike Huckabee (48-47), Mitt Romney (47-44), and Newt Gingrich (49-45) the margins are pretty close. Against Sarah Palin (52-40) and Donald Trump (51-39), who Obama can probably only dream about running against, the numbers are not so close.
Obama's doing well in those match ups against the Republicans not just because his own numbers are holding up well but because North Carolinians for the most part have a very dim view of the GOP field. Only Huckabee is viewed more favorably than unfavorably by voters in the state and that's by a narrow margin at 42/37. After him Romney is the most 'popular' at 31/44, followed by Gingrich at 31/50, Palin at 33/60, and Trump at 27/62. If the Republicans had a really appealing candidate Obama would probably be having more trouble in North Carolina, but as of now they don't.
Obama is highly unlikely to get to the point where he wins North Carolina easily next year but he's definitely still in the game and the state should be hotly contested for a second election cycle in a row.
Full results here
There are two data points key to Obama's continued decent standing in North Carolina. In most places Obama has maintained his popularity with minorities but seen a significant decline in his popularity with white voters. Here though his 37% approval rating with whites matches the percentage of the vote we found him winning in 2008 and that combined with his 87% standing with black voters puts him on slightly positive ground overall. The other key thing for Obama is that he's at 50/44 with independents here, basically matching his 2008 victory margin over McCain in the state with those voters and running counter to his 37/54 approval breakdown with them nationally.
Obama leads all five Republicans we tested against him in the state. Against Mike Huckabee (48-47), Mitt Romney (47-44), and Newt Gingrich (49-45) the margins are pretty close. Against Sarah Palin (52-40) and Donald Trump (51-39), who Obama can probably only dream about running against, the numbers are not so close.
Obama's doing well in those match ups against the Republicans not just because his own numbers are holding up well but because North Carolinians for the most part have a very dim view of the GOP field. Only Huckabee is viewed more favorably than unfavorably by voters in the state and that's by a narrow margin at 42/37. After him Romney is the most 'popular' at 31/44, followed by Gingrich at 31/50, Palin at 33/60, and Trump at 27/62. If the Republicans had a really appealing candidate Obama would probably be having more trouble in North Carolina, but as of now they don't.
Obama is highly unlikely to get to the point where he wins North Carolina easily next year but he's definitely still in the game and the state should be hotly contested for a second election cycle in a row.
Full results here
Iowa Miscellany
-You can add Iowa to the list of states where voters are not happy with their new Republican Governor and where if they had a chance to do their Gubernatorial election over again things might come out a little bit different. Terry Branstad's approval rating is only 41%, with 45% of voters disapproving of him. The exit poll last fall showed him winning independents by 10 points but now only 35% approve of him to 45% who disapprove, reflecting the trend of indys away from the GOP that we're seeing in our polling all over the country. Also holding down his numbers is that Democrats (77%) are more unified in their unhappiness with him than Republicans (76%) are in their favor.
Branstad trails 48-46 in a hypothetical rematch with Chet Culver. Iowa joins Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Georgia as states where we've found last fall's Democratic nominees now ahead of the Republicans who were actually elected in November. That's partially a function of voters not being happy with what they've seen so far from their new Governors and it's partially a function of the fact that Democratic voters allowed their losses last year to happen by their low voter turnout.
-Iowa's most popular Congressman, in terms of statewide favorability, is Tom Latham. He has a +9 spread at 31/22. Second is Dave Loebsack at +5 (25/20), followed by Bruce Braley at +2 (22/20), and Leonard Boswell at -2 (28/30). Bringing up the rear among the Congressional delegation is Steve King at -7 (27/34). Latham 2014 against Tom Harkin?
-Christie Vilsack is running against King next year and at least statewide she's a lot more popular than he is. Her favorability is a +15 spread at 38/23. That makes her more popular than her husband. Tom Vilsack breaks down at a +12 spread (46/34).
-Charles Grassley remains one of the most popular Senators in the country, with 57% of voters approving of him to 30% who disapprove. That ties him for 12th in net approval out of 85 Senators PPP has polled on in the last two years. Republicans are almost universal in their approval of him but the two things that make his numbers stand out are coming close to break even with Democrats (38/50), and a greater than 2:1 approve/disapprove ratio with independents (55/26).
-Tom Harkin's numbers are slightly above average with 47% of voters approving of him and 38% disapproving. That puts him in a tie for 38th out of the 85 Senators we've polled on. Harkin's standing with Democrats is similar to Grassley's with Republicans but he can't manage to match his senior colleague's crossover support. Only 17% of GOP voters approve of his performance and independents are only narrowly positive towards him, 43/38.
Full results here
Branstad trails 48-46 in a hypothetical rematch with Chet Culver. Iowa joins Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Georgia as states where we've found last fall's Democratic nominees now ahead of the Republicans who were actually elected in November. That's partially a function of voters not being happy with what they've seen so far from their new Governors and it's partially a function of the fact that Democratic voters allowed their losses last year to happen by their low voter turnout.
-Iowa's most popular Congressman, in terms of statewide favorability, is Tom Latham. He has a +9 spread at 31/22. Second is Dave Loebsack at +5 (25/20), followed by Bruce Braley at +2 (22/20), and Leonard Boswell at -2 (28/30). Bringing up the rear among the Congressional delegation is Steve King at -7 (27/34). Latham 2014 against Tom Harkin?
-Christie Vilsack is running against King next year and at least statewide she's a lot more popular than he is. Her favorability is a +15 spread at 38/23. That makes her more popular than her husband. Tom Vilsack breaks down at a +12 spread (46/34).
-Charles Grassley remains one of the most popular Senators in the country, with 57% of voters approving of him to 30% who disapprove. That ties him for 12th in net approval out of 85 Senators PPP has polled on in the last two years. Republicans are almost universal in their approval of him but the two things that make his numbers stand out are coming close to break even with Democrats (38/50), and a greater than 2:1 approve/disapprove ratio with independents (55/26).
-Tom Harkin's numbers are slightly above average with 47% of voters approving of him and 38% disapproving. That puts him in a tie for 38th out of the 85 Senators we've polled on. Harkin's standing with Democrats is similar to Grassley's with Republicans but he can't manage to match his senior colleague's crossover support. Only 17% of GOP voters approve of his performance and independents are only narrowly positive towards him, 43/38.
Full results here
Berkley pulling closer to Heller
Dean Heller continues to hold the early lead in the Nevada Senate race, but Shelley Berkley's gained on him over the four months since PPP last polled the match up. Heller is now up only 47-43 on Berkley. That represents a 9 point swing in her direction since Heller led 51-38 in early January.
The main thing fueling Berkley's gain is that Democratic voters have soured on Heller since he launched his Senate campaign, significantly cutting into his crossover support. In January Heller posted a pretty decent 22/31 favorability spread with Democrats, allowing him a 46/23 breakdown overall. Now just 16% of Democrats express a positive view of him and 48% have a negative one. That's caused his net favorability to drop 9 points from +23 to now +14 at 43/29.
Given that Democratic voters don't like him as much anymore it's no surprise that they're also not as inclined to vote for Heller as they were earlier this year. In January Berkley had only a 44 point lead over Heller with Democratic voters at 64-20. Now it's a 63 point lead at 76-13 and that 19 point shift in her direction within her own party is the main reason she now has the race within the margin of error.
One thing that may end up actually hurting Heller in the long run is being appointed to the Senate vacancy created by the early resignation of John Ensign. 53% of voters think that Ensign's seat should be filled by a special election, compared to only 44% who think Brian Sandoval should appoint Ensign's replacement. Democrats will certainly try to make a Heller appointment smell bad and these numbers suggest that they have the public behind them in their opposition to Sandoval giving Heller a head start.
Heller continues to lead Berkley for two main reasons. The biggest is his overwhelming support with independent voters. He's extremely popular with them, at a 51/21 favorability breakdown, and his advantage over Berkley with them is 56-29. The other key for Heller is that even though Berkley has gained ground with Democrats, he still has his party more unified around him than her. 86% of Republicans right now say they will vote for Heller, compared to 76% of Democrats who are already committed to Berkley.
The Heller/Berkley race is starting to look like something close to a toss up. One contest that would not be a toss up is if Byron Georgiou somehow snagged the Democratic nomination. Heller would lead him by 24 points at 52/28, winning independents by a whooping 42 points.
Full results here
The main thing fueling Berkley's gain is that Democratic voters have soured on Heller since he launched his Senate campaign, significantly cutting into his crossover support. In January Heller posted a pretty decent 22/31 favorability spread with Democrats, allowing him a 46/23 breakdown overall. Now just 16% of Democrats express a positive view of him and 48% have a negative one. That's caused his net favorability to drop 9 points from +23 to now +14 at 43/29.
Given that Democratic voters don't like him as much anymore it's no surprise that they're also not as inclined to vote for Heller as they were earlier this year. In January Berkley had only a 44 point lead over Heller with Democratic voters at 64-20. Now it's a 63 point lead at 76-13 and that 19 point shift in her direction within her own party is the main reason she now has the race within the margin of error.
One thing that may end up actually hurting Heller in the long run is being appointed to the Senate vacancy created by the early resignation of John Ensign. 53% of voters think that Ensign's seat should be filled by a special election, compared to only 44% who think Brian Sandoval should appoint Ensign's replacement. Democrats will certainly try to make a Heller appointment smell bad and these numbers suggest that they have the public behind them in their opposition to Sandoval giving Heller a head start.
Heller continues to lead Berkley for two main reasons. The biggest is his overwhelming support with independent voters. He's extremely popular with them, at a 51/21 favorability breakdown, and his advantage over Berkley with them is 56-29. The other key for Heller is that even though Berkley has gained ground with Democrats, he still has his party more unified around him than her. 86% of Republicans right now say they will vote for Heller, compared to 76% of Democrats who are already committed to Berkley.
The Heller/Berkley race is starting to look like something close to a toss up. One contest that would not be a toss up is if Byron Georgiou somehow snagged the Democratic nomination. Heller would lead him by 24 points at 52/28, winning independents by a whooping 42 points.
Full results here
Trump, Huckabee tie in West Virginia
West Virginia marks the first state where we've found Donald Trump leading the GOP Presidential field- he gets 24% there, tying him at the top with Mike Huckabee. Sarah Palin is third with 13%, followed by Mitt Romney at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, and Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 3%.
We polled the Republican race in West Virginia in January too. With Trump now in the picture Huckabee is down 4 points from his standing on that previous poll, Palin has dropped 10 points, and Gingrich has fallen 8 points. Romney is actually up a point- you have to wonder if a Trump candidacy could actually end up being a blessing in disguise for Romney.
The folks who Trump appeals to by and large just aren't going to be particularly open to voting for Romney- so if Trump's in the race and helping to fracture the far right vote among a number of different candidates that gives Romney more of an opening to win in places even where he doesn't do that well with conservative voters. West Virginia's not somewhere Romney's likely to win regardless of the field but when you see him staying steady while everyone else goes down because of Trump you see where it could be a plus for him in the long run.
Trump is riding the birther train to his lead in West Virginia. Only 22% of Republican voters there think Barack Obama was born in the country to 53% who think he was not and 26% who are unsure. With the voters who think Obama was born in the US Trump gets just 15%, putting him in third place behind Huckabee and Romney. But with the folks who think Obama was not Trump gets 30% putting him 8 points ahead of Huckabee and allowing him the overall tie.
Full results here
We polled the Republican race in West Virginia in January too. With Trump now in the picture Huckabee is down 4 points from his standing on that previous poll, Palin has dropped 10 points, and Gingrich has fallen 8 points. Romney is actually up a point- you have to wonder if a Trump candidacy could actually end up being a blessing in disguise for Romney.
The folks who Trump appeals to by and large just aren't going to be particularly open to voting for Romney- so if Trump's in the race and helping to fracture the far right vote among a number of different candidates that gives Romney more of an opening to win in places even where he doesn't do that well with conservative voters. West Virginia's not somewhere Romney's likely to win regardless of the field but when you see him staying steady while everyone else goes down because of Trump you see where it could be a plus for him in the long run.
Trump is riding the birther train to his lead in West Virginia. Only 22% of Republican voters there think Barack Obama was born in the country to 53% who think he was not and 26% who are unsure. With the voters who think Obama was born in the US Trump gets just 15%, putting him in third place behind Huckabee and Romney. But with the folks who think Obama was not Trump gets 30% putting him 8 points ahead of Huckabee and allowing him the overall tie.
Full results here
Tomblin, Ireland lead in WV
Acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin has broken open the Democratic primary race in West Virginia and now leads by 15 points. Tomblin is at 32% to 17% for state Treasurer John Perdue, 16% for Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, and 15% for House Speaker Rick Thompson. Jeff Kessler at 5% and Arne Moltis at 1% round out the field.
When PPP polled this race in January Tomblin led Tennant by just a single point. Since then Tomblin has gained 7 points while Tennant has headed in the wrong direction, losing 8 points. The only candidate besides Tomblin who has gained any momentum over the last three months is Thompson, who's gone up 9 points from 6% to 15%. Perdue has basically stayed in place. He was at 16% and is now up just a single point to 17%. It seems entirely possible given the current trajectory of each candidate's support that you could see a final result with Tomblin in first, Thompson in second, Perdue in third, and Tennant all the way back in fourth despite her initial co-front runner status.
Tomblin is winning across the entire ideological spectrum of the Democratic electorate, important in a state that has arguably the most ideologically diverse group of primary voters anywhere in the country. As expected Tomblin is particularly strong with more conservative leaning voters, holding a 20 point lead with 'very conservative' voters over Thompson at 36-16 and an 18 point lead with 'somewhat conservative' voters over Perdue at 42-24. But he leads with liberal leaning voters too, albeit by narrower margins. With folks describing themselves as 'very liberal' he has a 3 point advantage over Tennant at 25-22. And with ones describing themselves as 'somewhat liberal' his lead is 4 points over Tennant at 25-21.
The Republican side of the equation in West Virginia is actually slightly closer, with Betty Ireland at 31% and Bill Maloney at 17%. None of the other candidates are hitting double digits- Clark Barnes and Mitch Carmichael have 8%, Mark Sorsaia's at 4%, Ralph William Clark and Larry Faircloth each have 2%, and Cliff Ellis is at 1%.
This race seems more prone to an upset over the final two and a half weeks than the Democratic one does. There are still a lot of undecided voters- 28% haven't made their mind up yet. And Ireland's lead is still very much a function of name recognition. 62% of primary voters know who she is, compared to only 38% who know Maloney enough to have formed an opinion of him. With the voters who do have a take on Maloney- whether it's a positive or a negative one- he actually leads Ireland 40-26. So he's winning with the folks who do know him, it's just a question of whether there will be enough folks who know him by the time May 14th rolls around.
For now it looks like it will be Tomblin and Ireland and we'll release numbers tomorrow looking at where that match up would start for the general election.
Full results here
When PPP polled this race in January Tomblin led Tennant by just a single point. Since then Tomblin has gained 7 points while Tennant has headed in the wrong direction, losing 8 points. The only candidate besides Tomblin who has gained any momentum over the last three months is Thompson, who's gone up 9 points from 6% to 15%. Perdue has basically stayed in place. He was at 16% and is now up just a single point to 17%. It seems entirely possible given the current trajectory of each candidate's support that you could see a final result with Tomblin in first, Thompson in second, Perdue in third, and Tennant all the way back in fourth despite her initial co-front runner status.
Tomblin is winning across the entire ideological spectrum of the Democratic electorate, important in a state that has arguably the most ideologically diverse group of primary voters anywhere in the country. As expected Tomblin is particularly strong with more conservative leaning voters, holding a 20 point lead with 'very conservative' voters over Thompson at 36-16 and an 18 point lead with 'somewhat conservative' voters over Perdue at 42-24. But he leads with liberal leaning voters too, albeit by narrower margins. With folks describing themselves as 'very liberal' he has a 3 point advantage over Tennant at 25-22. And with ones describing themselves as 'somewhat liberal' his lead is 4 points over Tennant at 25-21.
The Republican side of the equation in West Virginia is actually slightly closer, with Betty Ireland at 31% and Bill Maloney at 17%. None of the other candidates are hitting double digits- Clark Barnes and Mitch Carmichael have 8%, Mark Sorsaia's at 4%, Ralph William Clark and Larry Faircloth each have 2%, and Cliff Ellis is at 1%.
This race seems more prone to an upset over the final two and a half weeks than the Democratic one does. There are still a lot of undecided voters- 28% haven't made their mind up yet. And Ireland's lead is still very much a function of name recognition. 62% of primary voters know who she is, compared to only 38% who know Maloney enough to have formed an opinion of him. With the voters who do have a take on Maloney- whether it's a positive or a negative one- he actually leads Ireland 40-26. So he's winning with the folks who do know him, it's just a question of whether there will be enough folks who know him by the time May 14th rolls around.
For now it looks like it will be Tomblin and Ireland and we'll release numbers tomorrow looking at where that match up would start for the general election.
Full results here
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
