Brad Barton's Blog
April 14, 2011
Updated Severe Weather RIsk
Denton, Collin and Dallas Counties are perched on the western boundary of the "Slight Risk Area" for severe weather this afternoon and evening. The elevated "Moderate Risk Area" has been extended into parts of Northeast Texas, including Fannin County (Bonham) just east of the Sherman/Denison area.
Here's the most current graphic of those areas:
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0417 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE MID-SOUTH.
...KEY WEATHER PLAYERS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT DAYBREAK WILL
MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TO THE MID AND LOWER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WINDS IN THE MIDDLE AND HIGH-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY COLD UPPER AIR TEMPERATURES. COMBINING THESE INGREDIENTS
WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN
CONDITIONS RIPE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
300-400 PM TIME RANGE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY EARLY THIS
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AFTER 400
PM AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
MID-EVENING...FINALLY ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS BY MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO TEXAS IS
MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD INCLUDE FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE
SEVERITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING WILL
GROW INTO SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS FOR TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS...AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREATS WILL
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS AND MID/LOWER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
Although Tarrant County is technically outside the "Slight Risk Area," don't take anything for granted today. We will be windy, warm and humid all day. Our greatest risk for storms in the local DFW Metro area will be near or slightly after dark. If that changes with updated data, we'll update that on the quickly.
Don't forget, WBAP's WeatherInTouch.net is designed to send a text alert to your cell phone, smart phone or other mobile device whenever an actual warning is issued in your area. Here's the link to find out more: http://www.weatherintouch.net
- - Chief Meteorologist Brad Barton
posted by Brad Barton on 4/14/2011 4:52:06 AM