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Dr. Tylock

Brad Barton's Blog

April 14, 2011

Updated Severe Weather RIsk

Denton, Collin and Dallas Counties are perched on the western boundary of the "Slight Risk Area" for severe weather this afternoon and evening.  The elevated "Moderate Risk Area" has been extended into parts of Northeast Texas, including Fannin County (Bonham) just east of the Sherman/Denison area. 

Here's the most current graphic of those areas: 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0417 AM CDT THU APR 14 2011
  
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
   PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT.
  
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
  
          WESTERN ARKANSAS
          SOUTHEAST KANSAS
          EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
          EASTERN OKLAHOMA
          EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS
  
   ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   TO THE MID-SOUTH.
  
   ...KEY WEATHER PLAYERS...
   A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT DAYBREAK WILL
   MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND TO THE MID AND LOWER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
   OVERNIGHT.  THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
   WINDS IN THE MIDDLE AND HIGH-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH
   RELATIVELY COLD UPPER AIR TEMPERATURES.  COMBINING THESE INGREDIENTS
   WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN
   CONDITIONS RIPE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
  
   ...TIMING...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
   300-400 PM TIME RANGE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY EARLY THIS
   EVENING. 
  
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA...ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AFTER 400
   PM AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
   MID-EVENING...FINALLY ARRIVING IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN
   ARKANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.  SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO TEXAS IS
   MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD INCLUDE FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE
   EVENING.
  
   SEVERITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
   LATE EVENING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. 
  
   ...IMPACTS...
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING WILL
   GROW INTO SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS FOR TORNADOES.  STRONG TORNADOES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST
   KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...THROUGH LATE THIS
   EVENING.  VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS...AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  SEVERE THREATS WILL
   TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A WIND DAMAGE THREAT  ACROSS THE EASTERN
   OZARKS AND MID/LOWER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
  
   STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
   SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
   WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
   WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
   TODAY.
  

Although Tarrant County is technically outside the "Slight Risk Area," don't take anything for granted today.  We will be windy, warm and humid all day.  Our greatest risk for storms in the local DFW Metro area will be near or slightly after dark.  If that changes with updated data, we'll update that on the quickly. 
Don't forget, WBAP's WeatherInTouch.net is designed to send a text alert to your cell phone, smart phone or other mobile device whenever an actual warning is issued in your area.  Here's the link to find out more:  http://www.weatherintouch.net

 

- - Chief Meteorologist Brad Barton


posted by Brad Barton on 4/14/2011 4:52:06 AM


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