Paul was a tropical storm that moved mostly westward across the tropical
eastern Pacific basin for several days.
a. Synoptic history
Paul developed as a disturbance in the intertropical convergence zone and
was first identifiable as an area of thunderstorms on 22 October, located
several hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. It is
difficult to determine with certainty, but a wave-like area of thunderstorms
located in the western Caribbean on the 21st may have moved into
the vicinity of the above disturbance on the 22nd and contributed
to its development. The convection moved westward and gradually
consolidated. First visible satellite imagery on the 25th showed
a low-level center had formed overnight and tropical depression status and
the best track begins at 0600 UTC of this day.
Best track positions are plotted in
Figure 1. Figure 2 and
Figure 3 show
plots of best-track wind speed and pressure curves as a function of time,
along with the data on which they are based.
Table 1 lists best track
position, maximum one-minute surface wind speed, and minimum central
sea-level pressure at six-hour intervals.
Paul's track was basically westward at 15 knots for the nearly four days
that it was a tropical cyclone. It turned west-northwestward and slowed
on the 26th while passing south of an amplifying trough along
the west coast of North America, but resumed a westward motion within 24
The cyclone experienced strong mostly westerly vertical shear during its
existence as the low-level center was often exposed to the west of the deep
convection. Paul is estimated to have become a tropical storm at 1200 UTC
on the 26 about 900 n mi south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California, and reached its peak intensity of 40 knots six hours later.
Convection occasionally flared up for the next two days, but
the low-level center was lost by the 29th, and Paul dissipated
on this day about 1200 n mi southwest of the southern tip of Baja
b. Meteorological statistics
Satellite data were the basis for all determinations concerning the best
c. Casualty and damage statistics
There were no reports of death or damage.
d. Forecast and warning critique
Paul was a tropical storm for only 30 hours, not long enough for
verification statistics beyond 24 hours. The jog to the north on the 26th
was correctly anticipated by the official forecasts as well as by a number
of the guidance models.
Best track for Tropical Storm Paul, 25 - 29 October 2000.
|Lat. (°N)||Lon. (°W)
Best track positions for Tropical Storm Paul, 25 - 29 October 2000.
Best track one-min. wind speed curve for Tropical Storm Paul, 25 - 29
Best track minimum central pressure curve for Tropical Storm Paul, 25 - 29