SUMMARY

Dry and bright today with light winds. Some showers perhaps spreading north tonight. Little wind.

Showers dying out on Sunday. A SE’ly breeze developing during the day, becoming fresh over Orkney by the evening.

Becoming wet and windy on Monday with strong E’ly winds. Rain clearing to showers on Tuesday, as strong winds become N to NW’ly. A dry start to Wednesday, but more rain spreading north later as SE’ly winds freshen.

Some rain or showers to end the week, as winds back fresh NE’ly. Then becoming drier and brighter as winds fall light.

GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS 06:00 UTC

A ridge of high pressure extends southeast over Faeroe towards the Northern Isles. With a shallow, complex area of low pressure over southern Scandinavia and the North Sea, a light NE’ly airflow covers northeast Scotland.

Little change is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.

On Monday an E’ly airflow will strengthen, ahead of a frontal system pushed north over the Northern Isles by a depression tracking northeast over mainland Scotland.

The low is expected to pass just to the east of Orkney and Shetland overnight, with a strong NW’ly airflow following for Tuesday.

A weak ridge will follow early on Wednesday, before the next Atlantic depression to the west of Ireland drives its fronts north later in the day.

This latest low is forecast to drift east over the UK as a filling feature during the latter part of next week, resulting in a NE’ly airflow in the north.

During the following weekend pressure should build south over the area, but this ridge is not likely to last long, with another depression predicted to track east towards northern Scotland.

FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Weather type – medium. Timing – medium.

Temperatures rising to 12° to 14° Celsius today, down to 6° or 7° Celsius tonight. On Sunday and Monday temperatures in the daily range 11° or 12° Celsius down to about 7° Celsius.

SATURDAY 11th: A bright and dry day across the Northern Isles. Some sunny spells for Shetland but also rather cloudy at times, with the best of the sunshine for Orkney. F2-3 NE to N’ly winds. Clouding over with showers spreading into Orkney later this evening, these perhaps becoming prolonged at times and extending across Fair Isle and the south of mainland Shetland overnight. Winds becoming light and variable in direction.

Sea state – Slight, with a 1 metre E’ly wind-swell turning N’ly.

SUNDAY 12th: Rather cloudy with showers continuing during the day. Though prolonged at first, the showers will become lighter and more scattered later. A SE’ly breeze, developing during the day, increasing F4-5 over Orkney and a F3-4 in Shetland by the evening.

Sea state – Mostly slight, with a 1 metre NW’ly wind-swell.

MONDAY 13th: Mostly dry overnight and at first, but becoming windy with a F5-6 E’ly. Cloud thickening with rain, heavy at times, spreading up from the south across Orkney by the morning, to reach Shetland by early afternoon. E’ly winds, increasing F6-7, could touch gale F8 locally across hills and headlands during the second half of the day.

Sea state – Mostly slight at first, with a 1 metre SE’ly wind-swell. Gradually increasing moderate, with a 2 metre E’ly wind-swell.

 10-DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium. Timing – low.

Temperatures mostly rising to 11° or 12° Celsius by day. Overnight lows of around 7° Celsius.

TUESDAY 14th: Rain clearing to showers, as strong winds ease for a time, but soon become fresh to strong N to NW’ly.

WEDNESDAY 15th: Showers dying out overnight as winds fall light, but more rain spreading north on later in the day as SE’ly winds increase fresh.

THURSDAY 16th – TUESDAY 21st: Outbreaks of rain or showers and moderate or fresh NE’ly winds at first. Becoming drier and brighter over the weekend and into the start of the following week as winds fall light.