Mavs’ repeat hopes rest with inking Chandler

Tyson Chandler's defense and rebounding were crucial to the Mavericks' championship run. (Reuters)

It’s interesting to think about what the Mavericks’ title run tells us about the alleged “multiple superstar” championship model, and to wonder about this Dallas team’s place in history.

As ESPN.com’s John Hollinger speculated, this Dallas team could be something of a one-hit-wonder champion situated between the Lakers/Spurs superteams and the next set of long-term contenders in Miami, Oklahoma City and Chicago.

But I like how Dirk Nowitzki put it in one of his postgame interviews: For one year, the Dallas Mavericks were the best team in the NBA, and that is what matters. The big picture is useful, and crafting a multiple-title mini-dynasty is the goal of any competitive franchise. But every NBA season is a unique animal, with particular issues of health, roster fit and (perhaps most important) postseason matchups. Being the last team standing after all of that is a monumental accomplishment, and winning “just” one title does not at all cheapen what Dallas (or the 2007-08 Celtics, the ’03-04 Pistons, the ‘o5-06 Heat or a dozen other teams) achieved.

The Mavs are old, and we’re ready to dismiss them already as we welcome the Miami/Chicago/Oklahoma City/Unidentified Superteam/ era. But owner Mark Cuban has done something interesting: He exploited just about every salary-cap rule that allowed him to spend big in the short term while maintaining a relatively clean cap sheet in the long term.

Dallas has just $44.4 million committed in 2012-13 salary (including team options on Roddy Beaubois and Dominique Jones), and that number stands to drop by nearly $8.4 million if the new collective bargaining agreement includes an amnesty clause that allows Dallas to part ways with Brendan Haywood. There might be a tough decision to make about Jason Terry after next season, but he’ll be nearly 35 by then and (probably) set for a pay cut.

In other words: Despite all of Cuban’s spending, the Mavs could be poised to have cap room after next season and beyond. Of course, we have no clue yet how the new CBA will actually work. We know what the owners want, including a hard cap set around $45 million to be phased in gradually; a ban on guaranteed contracts; some limitations on Bird Rights; the elimination of the mid-level exception; and an amnesty clause (something the players’ union likes, too). It’s very difficult to talk about the future without knowing the landscape under which teams will make personnel decisions. Cuban (understandably) declined to comment when I contacted him Tuesday.

Still, four things stand out with the Mavs:

• They should have more flexibility pretty soon.

• You know Cuban and his personnel guys are going to do everything to surround Nowitzki with star-level talent as the Finals MVP ages.

• They have some intriguing young players who could make significant strides next season in Beaubois, Jones and Corey Brewer.

• In the short term, they almost have to re-sign Tyson Chandler, who is going to be worth a lot of money.

You can talk about their other key free agents — J.J. Barea and Caron Butler — but those guys are replaceable. Chandler is not. No free-agent big man comes close to duplicating his two-way contributions. Samuel Dalembert, a purported target of the Heat, might bring the rebounding and blocked shots, but he is not up to sliding side-to-side with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade 20 feet from the hoop. He is not the same kind of dynamic pick-and-roll threat who can steal you a dozen relatively easy points while Nowitzki acts as a decoy on the perimeter. Chandler’s plus/minus numbers this season speak for themselves; only Nowitzki’s were better among core Mavs, and no one else was really close.

Chandler was the second-most-important Maverick this season. He completely changed Dallas’ identity, and there is absolutely no way it wins the title without him. Put another way: Losing Chandler would guarantee a step back in 2011-12. The Mavericks cannot compete with the Thunder, Lakers and perhaps even those beefy Grizzlies without a dynamic, defensive-oriented big man to do the heavy lifting on that end for Nowitzki. There is no one available who can do that lifting as well as Chandler.

That does not mean signing him is a risk-free proposition. Chandler is almost 29, past the age when players hit their performance peak, and he has a history of leg and foot injuries. He’s obviously healthy now, and perhaps all those injuries he sustained in 2009 and 2010 will help him because they kept him from piling up the heavy minutes total we’d normally associate with a quality player his age. Signing Chandler to a big-money, long-term deal also threatens to muck up Dallas’ cap situation beyond next season — right at the time the Mavs will be looking to restock with All-Star players in their prime. You know Cuban is going to do whatever it takes to get in the Dwight Howard/Chris Paul/Deron Williams race.

You still have to do sign him, though. The shorter the contract the better, as always, and perhaps the new CBA will help Cuban avoid a potential long-term albatross in that regard. The NBA is a tricky, tricky league, especially with big men; Chandler could be a savior now and a cap-killer in four years. The Mavs will do their best to strike the proper middle ground, and even if they overpay a bit, it will be justified. Besides, Chandler will (hopefully) remain the kind of guy you can move in a trade that is something other than a salary dump.

The “now” matters as long as Nowitzki is the centerpiece of the team. Chandler is exactly the sort of player Nowitzki needs around him as he gets older. Everything else is secondary.

Barea, at 27, strikes me as exactly the kind of guy an incumbent team flush with positive championship vibes might overpay. He’s a very nice player and an especially important cog on a Dallas team that has exactly zero other guards capable of getting to the rim. But a lot of Barea’s success in that respect comes via his pick-and-roll partnership with Nowitzki. If the Mavs are confident either Beaubois or Jones can grow into that role quickly, they could let Barea go without much anxiety. And if they are not confident about those young guys, perhaps Barea can still be had on the cheap. As good as he was in the Finals, he’s still a backup point guard. That’s not a high-paying job, in relative terms. Even so, those three-year, $15 million deals to so-so players often end up looking really bad, really fast.

Butler’s 31, and you have to be careful with him if a rival team offers a mid-sized deal running two or three seasons. Peja Stojakovic and Brian Cardinal were important role players, and they could be worth bringing back on minimum-level deals.

It all starts with Chandler. Dallas could easily contend next season if it brings him back, remains relatively healthy and sees at least two of the Beaubois/Jones/Brewer crew take significant steps.

They’re old, but don’t dismiss the Mavs — next season and beyond.