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From
the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council
"Global
Trends 2025: A Transformed World" is the
fourth unclassified report prepared by the National
Intelligence Council (NIC) in recent years that
takes a long-term view of the future. It offers
a fresh look at how key global trends might develop
over the next 15 years to influence world events.
Our report is not meant to be an exercise in prediction
or crystal ball-gazing. Mindful that there are many
possible "futures," we offer a range of possibilities
and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening
our minds to developments we might otherwise miss.
Some
of our preliminary assessments are highlighted below:
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The whole international system—as constructed
following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not
only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India
and China— have a seat at the international
high table, they will bring new stakes and rules
of the game.
- The
unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from
West to East now under way will continue for the
foreseeable future.
- Unprecedented
economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more
people, will put pressure on
resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising
the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips
supply.
- The
potential for conflict will increase owing partly
to political turbulence in parts of the greater
Middle East.
As
with the earlier NIC efforts—such as
Mapping The Global Future 2020—the project's
primary goal is to provide US policymakers with
a view of how world developments could evolve, identifying
opportunities and potentially negative developments
that might warrant policy action. We also hope this
paper stimulates a broader discussion of value to
educational and policy institutions at home and
abroad.
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