Factbox: Norway security outlook: "Increased uncertainty"

Following are excerpts from the unclassified 2011 national security outlook published by the Norway Police Security Service (PST) in February 2011.

ISLAMIST MILITANTS

-- The radicalization and international contacts of some individuals monitored by the PST present "a terrorism threat picture that is characterized by increased uncertainty."

-- "Even though few individuals in Norway support extreme Islamism, there is activity in certain communities which can contribute to a heightening of the threat situation in 2011."

-- "There are three main areas where we expect developments to affect the threat picture in Norway in the year ahead."

-- "Firstly, a steadily increasing level of radicalization will take place in public and through social media. Secondly, visits to regions of conflict will continue, for the purpose of training or participation in battle. Thirdly, extreme Islamists in Norway will become more globally oriented."

-- "It is primarily (the more globally oriented militants) who could present a direct threat to Norway in the year ahead."

POSSIBILITY OF ARMED ATTACKS

-- "There is always a high degree of uncertainty about the time and place of possible terrorist acts, including in Norway."

-- "Although a terrorist act in itself can be limited in scope, and the likelihood that it would affect an individual is low, a terrorist act can have huge consequences as a result of the fear it would create in the population."

THE FAR RIGHT

-- "Far-right extremists in Norway have only been slightly active in recent years. However, the trend that saw an increased level of activity in 2010 is expected to continue in 2011."

-- "Several players would like to revive the far-right extremist communities. However, the lack of strong leaders limits the growth of these groups."

-- "Norwegian far-right extremists are in contact with Swedish far-right extremists, as well as with other far-right extremist groups in Europe. Contact also takes place between Norwegian and Russian far-right extremists."

-- "An increased level of activity among some anti- Islamic groups could lead to increased polarization and unease, especially during, and in connection with, commemorations and demonstrations."

(Reporting by William Maclean, editing by Tim Pearce)