OUTGOING: Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka
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 A raft of ministers is facing political wilderness, they need a home now |
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Ruling party is a hostile place to be if you are not part of the anti-Mbeki group
THE most exciting unintended consequence of the train of events that led to the firing of President Thabo Mbeki by his beloved African National Congress is the possibility of a new opposition party springing up from within the ruling party.
Murmurings of such a party have been heard before.
But until a momentous event such as the sacking of Mbeki by the Jacob Zuma- led ANC leadership, such a possibility was remote indeed.
But now it is being openly talked about , with defence minister Mosiuoa Lekota and his deputy, Mluleki George, linked to such a move.
The emergence of a strong opposition party would be great news for South Africa.
After all, the abuses that Mbeki is allegedly being kicked out for are largely because the ANC acted with impunity on so many issues because its leaders knew the party was unlikely to lose an election.
In democracies the possibility of electoral humiliation focuses politicians’ minds.
Now, party leaders and heads of states have been kicked out unceremoniously before. PW Botha was shown the door by a scared and angry National Party in the late 1980s to be replaced by a reforming FW de Klerk.
Margaret Thatcher was kicked out by the Tories and replaced by a lackluster and gaffe-prone John Major.
Tony Blair was given the boot by the Labour Party after 10 years of economic success.
So, as momentous as Mbeki’s recall is, it is nothing new in democracies.
The one factor that differentiates these oustings from Mbeki’s is the fact that there were fundamental differences about the direction of the party and a genuine feeling that elections were about to be lost.
Are there fundamental differences about the direction of the ANC between Zuma and Mbeki?
The SACP and Cosatu may have differences with the Mbeki crowd, but the differences have not been strong enough for them to walk out and run for election as independents.
And so with the unifying factor that was the desire to kick Mbeki out, as happened in Polokwane, the one issue that might be keeping all these elements inside the ANC is the fact that they are more likely to survive inside the party than they are outside.
But consider this: A whole raft of ministers are now facing the political wilderness.
Intelligence minister Ronnie Kasrils has been at the heart of the factional battles inside the ANC. Lekota and George are no different .
Word is that Alec Erwin is mightily angry with those who have been attacking Mbeki.
Others whose positions have become untenable in the light of the Judge Nicholson ruling are the justice minister, Brigitte Mabandla, and two Mbeki allies, Charles Nqakula and his wife Nosiviwe Mapisa- Nqakula, deputy president Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Essop Pahad and others.
They all need a home now. The ANC is a hostile place to live at the moment if you are not part of the anti-Mbeki group.
The second factor is anger at the perceived descent of the ANC into a strident mob as typified by ANC Youth League president Julius Malema.
There is a raft of black working-class and middle-class people who look at the antics of a Malema and wonder what their country is coming to.
Mbeki, with his education and his appearance of rational thought and a striving for the entrenchment of middle- class values, is a man they are comfortable to see in the driving seat.
But will Mbeki be part of such an initiative?
How credible is a new party without him?
The challenge for the founders of a new party is that a division is difficult to handle because Mbeki did not victimise along ideological lines.
His victimisation of people was purely personal: Cyril Ramaphosa was persecuted in a similar fashion to Zwelinzima Vavi. Tokyo Sexwale’s persecution was similar to that of Blade Nzimande.
Although these four may stand at the extreme ends of the ideological spectrum today, they are united in the need to get rid of Mbeki.
That makes a shift to a new ANC difficult, because many of those leaders who would have found a natural home in a party that mirrors many of the more admirable Mbeki policy positions, would find it anathema to join him in a new initiative. Mbeki is an asset and a liability.
For George and those who have faintly spoken up for Mbeki or are organising such a move, there is also the challenge of a looming election.
It is highly unlikely that they will be ready to participate in the next election. If they are then forced to sit out a five-year ANC term, they may find that they have less support than they might have garnered in the heat of the current developments in the ANC.
But have no doubt that Mbeki had support in the African National Congress: 40percent of delegates in Polokwane voted for him. Add to that ordinary South Africans who see him as a voice of reason.
A new party is possible, but it will be tough for it to entrench itself.
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