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tropical weather outlook
200 am EDT sun Oct 23 2011

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Thunderstorm activity has increased and become concentrated during
the past several hours near the center of a low pressure area in
the southwestern Caribbean Sea...located about 150 miles miles
east-southeast of the Nicaraguan/Honduran border.  Environmental
conditions are gradually becoming more conducive for development...
and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight. This
system has a high chance...70 percent...of becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly northward and
then northwestward. Regardless of development...locally heavy rains
and gusty winds should continue to affect portions of Honduras and
Nicaragua through Monday. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance this
afternoon...if necessary.

A broad area of low pressure continues to produce cloudiness and
scattered showers several hundred miles east of the southern
Windward Islands. Development...if any...of this disturbance is
likely to be slow to occur. This system has a low chance...10
percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours
as it moves slowly northwestward and then west-northwestward. 

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain