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Paul Heroux

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Sex Offenders: Recidivism, Re-Entry Policy and Facts

Posted: 11/08/11 02:39 PM ET

Sexual predation is back in the national spotlight since Jerry Sandusky, the former Penn State defense coordinator who's accused of sexually assaulting eight boys over 15 years, and two top university officials and has been charged with sexual abuse and covering up the abuse.

It doesn't take much imagination to understand the horrors and damage caused by criminal offenders. And it's hard to talk about the facts of any criminal behavior since misinformation is common and ideas contrary to misinformation are quickly associated as soft on crime. The nuances of any criminal behavior are complicated.

Recidivism Statistics

The percentages rearrested (but not necessarily guilty) for the "same category of offense" for which they were most recently in prison for were:
13.4% of released robbers
22.0% of released assaulters
23.4% of released burglars
33.9% of released larcenists
19.0% of released defrauders
41.2% of released drug offenders
2.5% of released rapists

Contrary to popular belief, as a group, sex offenders have the lowest rate of recidivism of all the crime categories. These statistics completely fly in the face of conventional wisdom about sex offenders being the most likely group of criminals to re-offend for their initial crime, but these are the facts. It could be argued that sex offender recidivism isn't detected and that is why this number is so low, but that could also be said of other crime categories, too.

Independent studies of the effectiveness of in-prison treatment programs for sex offenders have shown that evidence-based programs can reduce recidivism by up to 15 percent. This might not sound like much, but it is. Recidivism can be further reduced up to 30 percent with after prison intervention. However, our current policies make no sense; we release many offenders to the public without some form of post-release supervision. Regardless of the program offered, it is very important to measure the effect the program has on recidivism; just because something is evidence-based, there can't be an assumption it works in the new location!

Reentry Policy

Post-release supervision helps decrease recidivism since it involves keeping an eye on the ex-offender, but also with assisting the ex-offender to find a job, obtain drug treatment and find housing, all of which are important to staying crime free. On the issue of housing, this is perhaps the biggest challenge facing ex-sex offenders. No one wants them and they have many legal obstacles when finding housing. And they have burnt all their bridges with society and even their family. To help reduce the chances of them re-offending, housing is important for every ex-offender.

Reports released from the Bureau of Justice Statistics show that when sex offenders do recidivate with a sex offense, approximately 75% victimize an acquaintance. The important point of this is that current sex offender residential restrictions often don't account for this and many other findings.

There are many types of sex offenders, from those who urinate in public to sexual predators and pedophiles. Some are criminally sentenced inmates while others are civil commitments deemed too dangerous to release even though they have served their sentence. There are different grades of sex offenders that include:

  • Level 1 (low risk of repeat offense), or
  • Level 2 (moderate risk of repeat offense), or
  • Level 3 (high risk of repeat offense and a threat to public safety exists).


There are nearly 740,000 registered sex offenders in the United States. Recent research finds that "the data presented here do not support the claim that the public is safer from sex offenders due to community notification laws."

This is not to suggest that we should not have sex offender registries. What it suggests is that sex offender registries may provide a false sense of security, and so other strategies are necessary. In addition, former sex offenders who do not re-offend find that sex offender registries limit their housing, job and educational opportunities. Right or wrong, some people may feel that former sex offenders deserve on going punishment. But it is important to note that difficulty finding a job or place to live is a risk factor for other types of crime. Adequate housing is very important for sex offenders. Think about it like this -- we don't want sex offenders to be homeless because if they are homeless, we don't know where they are.

To offer a policy outline on what to do for the various types of sex offenders by the different levels is far beyond the scope of this article. The important thing to note is that housing, jobs and health care are important to decrease recidivism. Also, we can't make assumptions about what works in public safety based on how we think something is or should be -- what works and what doesn't is sometimes counterintuitive.

In Conclusion

Effective strategies to deal with sex offenders are not based not anecdote, emotion, or case examples of just one; they are based on facts and what we know about the issue. At times we hear about a high profile event; but it is important to remember that high profile events are high profile precisely because they are unusual and unlikely.

Making policy based on high profile events is a surefire way to overreact and make inefficient and, worse, ineffective policy. In short, a high profile event is good time find out where a shortcoming or loophole might reside, but a high profile event is not what policy should be based on. Doing so would result in the majority of cases being marginalized and a strategy designed around an unlikely event.

Paul Heroux previously worked in a prison and in jail. He holds a master's in criminology from the University of Pennsylvania and a master's in public administration from the Harvard University JFK School of Government. Paul can be reached at PaulHeroux.MPA@gmail.com.

 
 
 
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12:25 PM on 11/17/2011
@randomsignupid

Just so you know too, sex offenders is a broad term. Just because you see the term sex offenders doesn't necessarily mean "pedophiles". Do you know you can be a sex offender if you urinated in public? If you are a teenager who had consensual sex with another teenager? If you took a naked picture of your baby and posted it? If you were just "accused" of rape? If you tickled a child in front of her parents and friends? If you are a 14 year old who played roughhousing with a friend? If you are a teacher who investigated a pornography and failed to report it to police? If you were caught in a government sting? Sex offenders are not always pedophiles.The reason being that sex offenders have low recidivism rate or are least likely to re-offend is because most of these people who are labeled sex offenders are people who at one point made a bad judgment in their life or who made a stupid mistake which they have already paid for and have been remorseful about.

Part 1
01:51 PM on 11/15/2011
Thank you for the article.

State sex offender registries were originally conceived and implemented to assist law enforcement's effort to more effectively monitor society's most dangerous sexual offenders. Over the past two decades this purposed intent has been lost, as the shift to all-inclusive registries has resulted in the ever-burgeoning number of registrants nationwide. Once reserved for the truly violent and predatory, registries now comprise practically anyone convicted of any crime considered sexual in nature.

Many states, counties, and municipalities now question the efficacy of increasingly tough sentencing laws, as well as the subjugation of former offenders to the restrictive registration requirements. Emotion-driven, politicized legislative efforts serve as the principal reason as to why we're witnessing the adverse effects, or backfiring of current sex crimes laws. Reform is sorely needed, and lawmakers have the responsibility to enact fact-based and evidence-based policy instead of the reckless and damaging laws that result from media hype and unsubstantiated paranoia.
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08:21 PM on 11/10/2011
One thing nobody talks about is, this 20 point system of determining dangerousness AND whether this actually reflects dangerousness AND if, in any particular person it does NOT reflect dangerousness, that person has no recourse. In fact, the Massachusetts board is an executive board who is NOT independent BUT whose decisions are then used to systematically banish a person from every segment of society (ex, a new law by Worcester, Mass to ban all level 2 and 3 from almost everywhere.

You have no due process to the registry. You have no recourse to the registry. You have no way to show how a particular law, as applied to an individual, actually makes the community MORE dangerous.

You want to determine WHO is a sex offender and THEN full power over that person for the rest of their lives. You even do it ex-post facto.

The fact is, your registry does NOT protect. The fact is, it is controlled and applied by a legislature completely. The fact is, NO LAWS have to be followed that strip a person of safety and/or security.

You don't want to hear that, I know. You still want full control over the registry. You have disdain for independent judges and you will NEVER stop with your registry laws AND in the land of the free? Jail is the MOST ROUTINE aspect of your society.

Your registry is being LAUGHED AT! (As is should and needs to be).
01:43 PM on 11/10/2011
The Jerry Sandusky case highlights another fact. He had never been convicted of a prior sex crime and thus was not listed on any sex offender registry. According to New York State, this is true of 95% of those arrested for sex crimes.
05:28 PM on 11/09/2011
Just wanted to point out an error in your article, You state "•Level 1 (low risk of repeat offense), or •Level 2 (moderate risk of repeat offense), or •Level 3 (high risk of repeat offense and a threat to public safety exists)" -- that is not true for every state. In all the states that have implemented AWA & those that do not do risk-based assessments, the levels are based on crime convicted of not by re-offense risk. So you stating the above implies to the general public that in all cases / states if an offender is listed as Level 3 they are high risk, when that is not a proven fact in all states. For example, in the State of Michigan as of July 2011 every one convicted of CSC in the 1st is labeled a Level 3 whether their risk to re-offend is low, medium or high.
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Paul Heroux
05:44 PM on 11/09/2011
I am making reference to what we have here in Massachusetts - that is how we classify people in MA - it is based on a 24 point classification system that assess risk of re-offense. I should have been clear about that. I have asked around and looked for reports but I have not seen that it is a validated system that actually predicts to re-offend.

But, yes... you are right that the AWA tier system is based on offense, not risk.
04:46 PM on 11/09/2011
Great article. As someone who has to register, and author of the book 'Despised Things', we need people to become informed to avoid prejudice that comes from ignorance. Even though everyone on the registry is under the same scrutiny, guidelines and conditions, not all cases are the same and each story is different.
03:48 PM on 11/09/2011
Thank you, Mr. Heroux! I posted your article on the Facebook page for NYRSOL, the forum at SOFAR as well as similar FB groups. It is so refreshing to hear from a journalist who doesn't fall victim to the popular opinion and emotion regarding s*x offenders and recidivism rates. Instead, you've chosen to base your article on actual facts, & ask questions everyone else is too afraid to ask. I follow this subject very closely and can only imagine the kinds of nasty responses you are getting from people claiming to care about the safety of children & families.

Since you've already done an excellent job reporting the facts, I will just say this. It's directed at those who say that the safety and well-being of families and their children trumps the rights, privacy and possibly even safety of SOs. Consider this: for every SO whose life is destroyed by a lifetime of public humiliation, constantly changing restrictions, and damning judgment by people like you, there is a FAMILY being torn apart. Hundreds of thousands of SOs on the national registry means exponentially more innocent family members & loved ones who suffer dearly. What about that family? What about those children? Do they not matter, or do you only care about the safety of perfect families, whose members have never made a mistake?

Please continue to provide insightful articles such as this one. Those of us who have lived first-hand through the path of heartbreak SO legislation creates thank you.
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Paul Heroux
04:17 PM on 11/09/2011
Your welcome, but I'm not a journalist - I am a private consultant who does crime policy evaluation and criminal justice performance measurement.

This writing thing is my attempt at a public service campaign to dispel myths and promote facts so that policy is based on what is really going on and what will work; not fear and failed ideas.

That said, I'll keep them coming.
06:33 PM on 11/09/2011
Thank you for the clarification. We share similar goals and I look forward to reading more from you!
09:11 PM on 12/02/2011
I hope that those who hire you, listen to you. :) Ric
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lpdoolittle
03:21 PM on 11/09/2011
So ultimately what you are stating is that we need a clearer delineation in regards to grouping of sex offenders. I read in comments below that pedophiles have high rates of recidivism, so why are they being lumped in with other sex offenders? As a parent, these are the people I feel who should have much longer prison terms than are currently doled out. They destroy a child, and most often multiple children before they are caught.
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Paul Heroux
04:14 PM on 11/09/2011
A pedophile is a clinical term given by a psychiatrist or psychologist; it is not a legal term. As noted below, some sex offenses on children are done by other children - i.e. consenting sex by minors. So, sex offenses done on children are not always done by pedophiles. As far as I know, the courts don't consider if someone is a 'pedophile' when sentencing an offender. I know that the concept of being a pedophile is not used here in Massachusetts by the Sex Offender Registry Board (they use a 24 point classification system to assess re-offending risk).

I'm not sure what the rates of recidivism are for pedophiles; I've read that they are higher, but Im forgetting what they may be. But that's not what I was saying here. What I said here was that treatment is ineffective for this group, however, the punishment and stigma associated with being a sex offender *might* keep them from re-offending. More need to be know about this aspect of it.

The question becomes, do we start incarcerating people longer if we can identify that they have a psychological disorder? If it doesn't violate civil rights and it keeps the public safe, sure... why not?

This is a truly complicated and serious issue. Since you are a parent, please have a look at www.missingkids.org. Also, have a look at: http://attleboro.patch.com/blog_posts/city-council-voted-to-approve-sex-offender-ban-a-feel-good-measure
01:36 PM on 11/09/2011
These are the facts that the rest of the world needs to see.

Not those bloated, fear mongering numbers that are so prevalently misused by main stream media.

All SO registry laws are motivated by fear and emotion. They are "feel good" laws that have no real usefulness as pointed out in this story.

Thank you so much Mr. Heroux
I applaud your boldness to seek and report the truth, based on facts not fear!
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01:16 PM on 11/09/2011
If you exucute them, the recidivism rate is 0%!
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Paul Heroux
01:49 PM on 11/09/2011
Sorry, but this makes no sense. We only calculate recidivism rates by people who have been released from prison or jail. Disposing of a corpse is, by definition, much different than that a release to the street pr probation or parole. Furthermore, do you suggest that we execute someone for a petty sex offense like public urination? There is a continuum of sex offenses in terms of seriousness. Where is the line drawn?

Moreover, by this logic - seeking a 0% recidivism rate - we would have to execute many more property offenders, drug offenders and other lesser offenses to achieve that 0% recidivism rate, since if a 0% recidivism is the goal, we are just about there.

Try reading the article and understanding the facts before commenting.
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Lila Folster
11:54 AM on 11/09/2011
As far as marginalization, "marginalization (U.S.), is the social process of becoming or being made marginal or relegated to the fringe of society e.g.; "the marginalization of the underclass", this is extremely commonplace, ranging from simple ostracizing, to violent vigilantism. An example can be found at http://setmyfamilyfree.wordpress.com/ A sex offense is a very emotional issue and when you have nearly an entire nation misinformed about the issue as a whole you have a nation steeped in mob mentality, which creates an environment that is frightening and unsafe for everyone.
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Lila Folster
11:52 AM on 11/09/2011
What many don't realize is that an abundance of "normal" sexual behaviors have been criminaliz­ed over the past decade or so. The registry, in its inception was designed to protect children from sexual predators. This same concept is now used to convict and and effectivel­y destroy the lives of many of our children. It is estimated that teens and children as young as 6 years old make up nearly half of those required to register. For what? Consensual teen sex (yes about a half dozen states HAVE enacted new laws to protect teens from prosecutio­n for this "offense" which is NOT retroactiv­e, leaving many on the registry, approximat­ely 200,000 who were convicted prior to the new laws, convicted of "criminal sexual conduct with a minor") which in 10 or 20 years will make it appear that this "adult" now 30 something, had sex with a young teen, whose age will always appear the same as the offender gets older. Other "crimes" include playing doctor (childhood explorator­y behavior, considered "normal" by medial experts), and sexting for example. Yes, there are also laws in effect or in the works to also deal with the many teens who decided to either send or receive "hot" pics from other teens, and again there are still many caught in the system.
04:53 PM on 11/09/2011
Well said and well informed...congrats to you!
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Lila Folster
11:49 AM on 11/09/2011
What many do not realize is that some well-known studies made on sex offenders recidivism rates, etc. are made only on a select group of offenders, i.e. Sturgeon and Taylor, 1980 (yes, thirty year old studies ARE still being used). The study specifically states that it is "A study involving mentally disordered sex offenders compared same-sex and opposite-sex child molesters and incest offenders." It is well known among experts that less than 5% of those on the registry fall into this category, yet these are the very ones that everyone on the registry are judged by.

It is a widely held belief in the general public that ALL offenders will reoffend not just once, but repeatedly and that they CANNOT be rehabilitated, again, this is supported by the premise that EVERYONE on the registry is judged on the merits of the 5% who are considered dangerous.
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Paul Heroux
02:20 PM on 11/09/2011
I'm not sure what you are trying to say here; there seems to be a blurring of concepts.

Sex offenders can be treated and recidivism can be reduced by up to 15% with in prison programs and up to 30% with post release supervision/programming. Pedophiles are different. The research is pretty clear that they can't be treated. (I provided hyperlinks in the article above for my sources).

Also, I'm not sure what you are referring to with respect to these 30 yr old studies. I provided a reference for the study above that finds that sex offenders have a 2.5% recidivism rate - it was US DOJ-BJS (I provided a hyperlink for this study in the article above.) In Massachusetts, where I was the director of the research division of the state prison system, we did not look at just offenders who were on the registry, we looked at ALL sex offenders released from our prison system and using the state computer arrest system we were able to determine if any of all of those sex offender inmates recidivated and for what. We did not look at a sample; we look at ALL.
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Lila Folster
04:13 PM on 11/09/2011
The 30 year old study I was referring to was the one in 1980 by Sturgeon and Taylor that specified it was done on mentally disordered sex offenders. I have had a number of people use the statistics from this particular study as the basis for their facts in trying to prove that the paranoia is justified.

I was not, by any means inferring that you used anything but recent and accurate studies, sorry if my post was unclear.
09:23 PM on 12/02/2011
The SOAR program in North Carolina boasts slightly less than 3% recidivism over a period of 10 years. And, these figures are recent. The main criteria for admittance is that you had to of pled guilty.
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Paul Heroux
02:20 PM on 11/09/2011
A lot of people seem to think that re-offending and recidivism are the same thing. They are not. Re-offending is a more general term under which recidivism falls under. Recidivism is only measured by people who have been convicted and then sentenced to a crime and then subsequently re-offended (sometimes re-arrested; sometimes re-sentenced - it varies.) So, offenders who have not been caught and who have multiple offenses are not, by the definition of recidivism, a recidivist. Someone who has always managed to evade being caught is not a recidivist. So we have to be clear about what we mean when we say re-offend and recidivism. They are different but related concepts.
04:29 AM on 11/09/2011
Only because the crime is very under reported. They re-offend, they just don't get caught everytime.
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Paul Heroux
06:27 AM on 11/09/2011
1) maybe, but can you prove that? and even if there were under reported because they are not getting caught as you suggest 2), that could be said of any crime category, which would make it a relative statement effectively keeping sex offender recidivism rates low.
01:08 PM on 11/09/2011
It is a personal opinion from my experience of over 10 years of interviews with admitted pedophiles. Situational pedophiles are more like to not re-offend because their true sexual attraction is not children. These are those that cross the line because of things like intoxication. Preferential pedophiles, or those that have a true sexual preference for children, I have found to re-offend in some way, shape or form, whether that be via sexual molestation or viewing child porn.

• More than 1/2 of all convicted sex offenders are sent back to prison within a year. Within 2 years, 77.9% are back.
- California Department of Corrections

• Recidivism rates range from 18-45%. The more violent the crime the more likelihood of repeating.
- Studies by the state of Washington

• 3 in 10 child victimizers reported that they had committed their crimes against multiple victims: they were more likely than those who victimized adults to have had multiple victims.
- BJS Survey of State Prison Inmates, 1991

• Like rape, child molestation is one of the most underreported crimes: only 1-10% are ever disclosed.
- FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin

• The behavior is highly repetitive, to the point of compulsion, rather than resulting from a lack of judgment.
- Dr. Ann Burges, Dr. Nicholas Groth, et al. in a study of imprisoned offenders
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Paul Heroux
06:50 AM on 11/09/2011
Some offenders offend only once, and some offenders offend many times. But this is not post-incarceration. Researchers estimate that only 1 in 20 sex offenses on a child are reported, but this is not to say that the offenders are recidivists (someone who did time for the crime).

When we look at those who have been caught and served time, as a group, we find that they have the lowest rate of recidivism compared to other groups.

SO crimes are nasty. It is important that we work with facts that can be proven so that our policy is based on what's really going on in the world and not what is tainted by fear, misinformation, or ineffective solutions.
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Paul Heroux
06:58 AM on 11/09/2011
*** But this is not (necessarily) post-incarceration.