To order up as 1st hand, his cards must be sufficiently strong to defeat his opponents, who by the fact
that they have been ordered up, will now have an extra trump. It is worthy to note that if you have only
2 trump, then there is a 47.7% chance that at least one of your opponents already has exactly 2 trumps --
excluding the upcard. There is a 3.25% chance that both your opponents already have 2 trumps,
which by inferrence, means both that the dealer will end up with three, and your partner will have zero.
If you have 2 trumps, what can you expect for trump distribution? There are 3
trumps accounted for, the dealer will end up with the upcard trump. So there are 4 trumps left.
There are also only 17 positions for the 4 remaining trump. 3 positions in the kitty, 5 in each of
2nd hand, and 3rd hand, 4 in the dealer's hand. The following probabilities apply accounting for the
upcard being in the dealer's hand:
The probabilities are exclusive. That is, there is not a 75.80% (27.73% + 48.07%) chance that both 2nd
hand and dealer will each have 2 trump. You can only ask questions about one player at a time. In any
event, there is a 33% chance that the player to your left (who gets to play after you) has 2 or more trump.
There is a 21.88% chance that the dealer will have more trump than you, and a 48% chance that he will have
at least 2 -- which is a disadvantage if you want to lead trump. Because the dealer will play last, he
will be in a good position to maximize a tenace holding in trump.
If you are certain of 2 trump tricks because you have both bowers, the risk is acceptable, since your
partner has an equal chance of holding the top card in an offsuit. If, however you are highly expectant
of both trump tricks because of a void, you still may not draw enough trump and risk losing one trump trick
to each opponent by them trumping an offsuit.
It is reasonable to assume that if you have 3 trump, that the dealer has 2, and that both 2nd hand and
partner each have no more than 1. So a reasonable course of play is to order up if your hand has other
quality aspects and then immediately lead a high trump. The worst case scenario is that dealer wins
and 2nd hand has an additional trump. In such a case, which is only only a 1 in 5 chance, you might be
There are two caveats, of course, you need to know how to play each hand before making an aggressive
bid. The second caveat is that you do not believe you have an acceptable suit bid if everyone passes. If
you would be forced to pass on the second phase of bidding, 2nd hand gets an unfortunate opportunity.
You might also wonder why you would ever order up if you have both bowers instead of waiting to bid the
opposite coloured suit. If there is an advantage in your hand to bid the other upcard coloured suit,
then by all means, you should not order up. If, however, there is no holding advantage to waiting,
you can effectively communicate to your partner that your hand has other quality aspects. By trick 4,
your partner can safely discard a non-Ace/King holding in an opposite colour suit which has already been
played. This alone is worth the risk.
For example, if clubs have already been played, on trick 4, partner can safely discard the Queen of clubs
and retain a queen in another suit. This will win the necessary 3rd trick most of the time.