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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 535 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF TOPEKA KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 115...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG A SURFACE DRYLINE IN NW OK...AND AS THE
DRYLINE IS OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARIES...WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ARE WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER
MARGINS FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS /PRIMARILY IN KS/...BUT THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD PEAK BY LATE EVENING...AND THEN DECREASE BY 02-03Z AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND THE CAP AGAIN STRENGTHENS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 116 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 292235Z - 300300Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NNW TOP/TOPEKA KS/ - 35SSE GAG/GAGE OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /53W MKC - 35SSE GAG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 39279488 35819873 35810033 39279656
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 116 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 116
VALID 300235Z - 300340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE GAG
TO 15 NE AVK TO 15 WNW ICT TO 35 NE ICT TO 25 WNW CNU.
..ROGERS..03/30/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 116
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC015-035-073-077-173-191-300340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER COWLEY GREENWOOD
HARPER SEDGWICK SUMNER
$$
OKC003-043-045-053-093-129-151-153-300340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA DEWEY ELLIS
GRANT MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WOODS WOODWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 116
VALID 300150Z - 300240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W P28 TO
30 SSW HUT TO 35 W EMP TO 25 NNW CNU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 386
..ROGERS..03/30/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 116
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-015-017-035-073-077-095-173-191-300240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BUTLER CHASE
COWLEY GREENWOOD HARPER
KINGMAN SEDGWICK SUMNER
$$
OKC003-043-045-053-093-129-151-153-300240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA DEWEY ELLIS
GRANT MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WOODS WOODWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 116
VALID 300035Z - 300140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW P28
TO 30 SSW HUT TO 40 SE SLN TO 10 W MHK.
..ROGERS..03/30/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 116
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-015-017-031-035-045-073-077-079-095-111-115-127-139-173-
177-191-197-300140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BUTLER CHASE
COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
KINGMAN LYON MARION
MORRIS OSAGE SEDGWICK
SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE
$$
OKC003-043-045-053-093-129-151-153-300140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA DEWEY ELLIS
GRANT MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WOODS WOODWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 116
VALID 292330Z - 300040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..03/29/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 116
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-015-017-031-035-045-061-073-077-079-095-111-115-127-139-
173-177-191-197-300040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BUTLER CHASE
COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN LYON
MARION MORRIS OSAGE
SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER
WABAUNSEE
$$
OKC003-043-045-053-093-129-151-153-300040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA DEWEY ELLIS
GRANT MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WOODS WOODWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.