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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.


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As Predicted, Jim Webb Won’t Run for Reelection in 2012

I don’t want to say “see, I told you so” . . .

Virginia Senator Jim Webb plans to announce today that he won’t seek reelection, a senior Senate source said.

. . . but see, I did tell you so:

“Call me crazy, but I think Virginia Sen. Jim Webb’s not going to run for reelection next year.”

Always trust Campaign Spot!

UPDATE: A confident but less accurate prediction from the man most Virginia Democrats expect will run for this seat: “My full expectation is that I’m going to be supporting a great Virginia Democrat and I believe that Virginia Democrat will be Jim Webb for the Senate seat,” DNC chair Tim Kaine said.

In that interview, Kaine said he wouldn’t run if Webb retired, but . . . that decision may change now that the possibility of an open seat is a reality.

ANOTHER UPDATE: The Republican party of Virginia is preparing for a Kaine bid. From RPV Chairman Pat Mullins:

With Senator Webb’s announcement today that he will retire rather than face Virginia voters and have to defend his record, the Democrats efforts to cling to a thin majority in the U.S. Senate took a big hit.

This couldn’t be worse news for the Democrats. Now, instead of facing the most hotly contested Senate race in the country with the advantages of incumbency, they must deal with a nomination contest and then face a Republican candidate in the fall in a state that has overwhelming rejected nearly every Democrat since President Obama was sworn into office.  Senator Webb’s announcement makes their slim majority in the U.S. Senate look all the more precarious. 

I expect that in the days ahead we will learn that our former part-time Governor and full-time partisan-in-chief DNC Chairman Tim Kaine will announce his intention to run and we look forward to reminding Virginians of his legacy of broken promises, higher taxes, and unbridled support of President Obama’s agenda.

Meanwhile, here’s George Allen’s response to the news:

I respect Senator Webb’s service to our country and the very personal decision that he and his family have made. I did not enter into this race to run against any one person, but to fight for the families of Virginia to improve their opportunities in life. My campaign will continue to focus on achievable reforms that will help reinvigorate our economy, end reckless, runaway spending, and unleash our plentiful energy resources.

Tags: Jim Webb, Tim Kaine

Text  

COMMENTS   37

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Tom O'Gorman
   02/09/11 11:58

I think there is too much at stake for the Dems for Kaine not to run. If Kaine doesn't run, three things will happen: 1) Allen wins 2) It will be an uncompetitive race, meaning the GOP doesn't have to spend resources in an expensive state 3) Dem turnout, lacking a strong Senate candidate, will be down, throwing the State Electoral College votes to the GOP.

That's a trifecta Kaine would likely be unwilling to throw to the GOP.

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   02/09/11 12:32

Let's draft Jim Moran to run for Senate. He'd lose statewide, and maybe we could get someone sane in CD 8.

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 sam
   02/09/11 12:33

Tim Kaine doesn't want another solid loss on his resume.

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   02/09/11 13:07

@ Tom - something about that makes no sense. If Obama can't compete in Virginia then I don't see how Kaine changes that. If Democrats aren't fired up to vote for Obama, why in the world would they be fired up to vote for Kaine? You're basically arguing that there are Democrats in Virginia who will stay home and not vote for Obama because the Senate race isn't competitive. That defies logic to me, and defies the statistical evidence from past elections (presidential year turnout greatly exceeds midterm turnout).

If a Democrat is willing to stay home and not vote for Obama, no Senate candidate is going to make them more inclined to go down to their polling place.

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MikeN
   02/09/11 13:42

Get Tom Periello into the Senate race ASAP.

Then Webb vs Obama in 2012 primary!

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   02/09/11 13:48

Good by to that phony Webb! He labeled Allen a racist. He also wrote a pornographic novel and insulted Pres. Bush when he asked about his son who was in Iraq. In fact, he refused to shake W.'s hand! He is a boor and a phony. And good by to his cheap toupee! If you are losing your hair, you should flaunt it.

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Rick S.
   02/09/11 13:56

I agree with Tom. I also think that this has to make Allen happy. He will still have the Macaca baggage but may now face Kaine who has his own baggage with all of his cheerleading for Obamacare.

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   02/09/11 14:04

I remain skeptical that Kaine running is the difference between Obama winning and losing the state. I think Obama will lose regardless - and I'm not convinced that the margin of defeat would be significantly different if Kaine stayed out.

I do, however, agree that Kaine will be pushed to run - the Democrats really don't have anybody else to run in Virginia. Their recently defeated congressmen got thumped and I don't see how they mount a successful statewide run based on that. Their remaining congressmen are too far to the left (or in Moran's case, just too crazy) to win. Kaine has won statewide - left office with good numbers, and would be able to run a strong enough campaign. The Democrats need someone that can raise money (Kaine can), and who will keep Republicans from being able to devote their money to other races.

When you couple that with the terrain, Democrats need to be as strong as possible in the purple to red states where they are defending seats. Kaine is the only person that makes sense for the Democrats.

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Karen from VA
   02/09/11 14:06

I knew Warner would vote with the Democratic party on healthcare reform but I held out hope that Webb would be different. Therefore, I was very disappointed when he cast his vote in favor of healthcare reform legislation. He could have voted with his constituency and against the Democratic party. The lesson I took away from this is that "moderate Democrat" is an oxymoron. When their back is against the wall, they take the "party line" even when it runs contrary to the will of the people that put them in office.

Given the strong opposition to healthcare reform in Virginia, I think that any Democratic candidate for the Senate is going to face an uphill battle.

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   02/09/11 14:10

reldim, Think about it this way.

Assume Democrats are unenthusiastic about Obama. They will vote for him over a Republican, but only if they decide to come out and vote.

1) The Senate race is close and exciting. An outstanding D candidate gets them pumped up and they turn out, at which point they vote for President Obama.

2) Either the race is a blowout in favor of the R Senate candidate or it is close but they don't feel any connection to the D. They decide they can't be bothered and they don't show up, therefore the President doesn't get that vote.

Not saying this will happen, maybe they are far more enthusiastic about the President than polls show, but there are two potential scenarios where Obama's numbers are affected by the Senate race.

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harryf
   02/09/11 14:10

Jim Webb wears a toupee?! No! C'mon, seriously. Biden's effeminate vanity is one thing, but if US Marines are starting to use men's hair care products, then I'm jumping off a bridge. Take me now, saints in heaven.

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Tomboy
   02/09/11 14:12

Jim Webb's other "moderate" Democrat bud Bill Nelson might want to think about 'spending some more time with his family' too. The Florida Chamber's saying Nelson only gets 38% against Haridopolus.

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   02/09/11 14:19

This is fantastic news. Now if we can just find someone besides George Allen to run.

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London General
   02/09/11 14:26

Senator Webb has a way of resigning when things get tough. He's giving up his Senate seat because he's pretty sure he won't win reelection. He did the same thing as Secretary of the Navy . . . he resigned when he was told that the Navy was going to be smaller than the 600 ships that were planned.
Having said that, nothing should detract from the fact that when he was a Marine in Vietnam, he did his duty and did it well- earning the Navy Cross, and was severely wounded in action. His war experience alone is enough to hold him in the highest regard by his countrymen.

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   02/09/11 14:28

Tom O'Gorman sure thinks highly of Tim Kaine!

In Kaine's hypothetical absence from the 2012 ballot, the Democrats have no hope at all to win the Senate race or the Virgina electoral votes. But, if Kaine runs for Senate in 2012, the Democrats' outlook brightens considerably, so that the Senate race will be competitive and the Virginia electoral votes in play. Oh, and the GOP's finances get tossed into a tizzy, too!

Perhaps Mr. O'Gorman can refresh my dormant memory:

1) When was the last time that a presidential candidate won even a single electoral vote by riding the "coat tails" of a SENATE candidate?!

2) When was the last time that the national political prospects of an entire political party rested so squarely on the prospective candidacy of only one person for the US Senate?

Geez, this whole time I thought it all was the other way around.

Well, I live and fail to learn, apparently.

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   02/09/11 14:35

There sure seems to be a high attrition rate for the O-Care voters. One gets the idea that shafting the American people depsite their strident protests not to do it is a bad idea. If only this man had made his decision to leave office before selling us into slavery.

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dcwood1va
   02/09/11 14:58

I knew when Webb voted the party line on all of the "O's" proposals that he was done. He barely defeated Allen so he chances of keeping the seat was out of the question.
I have been writing him and telling him for the past five years that he should go back to doing something he was good at i.e. writing "B" novels.
Kaine thought he was a lot more popular than he actually was when govenor so I don't feel he will be much of a threat for retaining the Senate seat. Especially with his close ties to Obama.
If the People's Republic of Northern Virginia were not in the equation things would be much better for all of us.

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Tom O'Gorman
   02/09/11 15:15

@madisonian I have no strong opinions about Kaine. Don't know him. He seems like a standard "moderate" Dem to me; when it comes to the crunch, he'll back orthodox liberalism.

But it would seem to me that 1) the Presidential election in VA this time will have a higher minority turn out than either the midterms or the gubenatorial race 2) this should make it more competitive 3) a stronger Dem Senate candidate is likely to generate a higher Dem turnout than a weaker one 4) on that basis, a Kaine run is better for Obama than a weaker candidate.

I am NOT saying that Kaine running guarantees an Obama win, or even a Kaine win. All I'm saying is that a Dem ticket with Kaine on it is stronger than a ticket with another Dem. And I think a stronger overall Dem ticket is better for Obama.

The Dems need the state to be competitive. A candidate who brings more Dem voters out helps to make the state more competitive. Obviously, it doesn't guarantee anything. My guess is that the GOP will win both the Senate seat, and the state's Electoral College votes. But I still think Kaine strengthens the Dems in VA.

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Peggy
   02/09/11 15:44

You may not like Jim Webb's politics, but 'Fields of Fire' is hardly a "B novel".

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 cab
   02/09/11 16:01

London General says: "[N]othing should detract from the fact that when he was a Marine in Vietnam, he did his duty and did it well- earning the Navy Cross, and was severely wounded in action. His war experience alone is enough to hold him in the highest regard by his countrymen."

Agreed. I also hold John McCain in the highest regard for his military service, but do not want him as President. Same applies to Webb.

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