Aerial Eyes: Pakistan’s New AWACS Fleets

S-2000 Rollout

In June 2006, Saab signed a SEK 8.3 billion provisional contract to supply Argus turboprop airborne early warning (AEW&C) systems to Pakistan, based on the Saab 2000 regional turboprop airliner and the Erieye fixed active array radar. The buy capped a 25-year quest by the Pakistani Air force to field AWACS machines, which can survey the airspace for hundreds of miles around, and co-ordinate intercept and strike missions based on what it sees.

The Saab aircraft beat other competitors, including US offers to sell the E-2C Hawkeye system. In 2007, the buy was reduced somewhat for financial reasons, but Pakistan took delivery of at least 4 planes. Then, in 2008, the PAF looked to China for another 4 AWACS. Despite some setbacks, Pakistan had a diverse AWACS fleet with more than 5 aircraft, even as its rival India has struggled to field 3 planes. That was true, until Pakistan’s own deep state policies supporting Salafist Islam came back to bite their AWACS fleet.

Japan’s Next Fighters, From F-X Competition to F-35 Buys

F-35A

In December 2011, Japan picked Lockheed Martin’s new F-35A stealth fighter as its next fighter aircraft, to replace its aging F-4 “Kai” Phantom fleet. The F-35 was actually their 2nd choice.

Back in February 2006, Inside The Air Force (ITAF) reported that momentum was building within the USAF to sell the ultra-advanced F-22A Raptor abroad to trusted US allies, as a way of increasing numbers and production. Japan clearly wanted them, and the Raptor was a topic of diplomatic discussions in several venues, including a 2007 summit meeting. In the end, however, US politics denied export permission for downgraded export variants of the F-22, and its production line was terminated. That left Japan looking at other foreign “F-X” fighter options in the short term, while they considered a domestic stealth fighter design as their long-term project.

In the ensuing F-X competition, the F-35 Lightning II beat BAE’s Eurofighter Typhoon, as well as an upgraded F/A-18E Super Hornet from Boeing. Now Lockheed Martin has to deliver, and so will its Japanese partners. Will the F-35A’s price and program delays create problems in Japan? This article looks at the JASDF’s current force, its future options, and ongoing F-X developments.

Bold Projections Taken Out of Context Overstate China’s Leeway for Military Budget Growth

Take with a whole salt shaker

The UK’s long-established International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) recently published a Military Balance 2013 report which makes some reasonable observations about the current state of global affairs, but unquestioning media parroting of some of its talking points invites more scrutiny. Namely, one of the report’s charts puts Chinese defense spending possibly above the US within a dozen years, and continues to project current spending trends until 2050, in current dollars, with today’s exchange rates. Unfortunately, if this is taken at face value as a prediction, it’s misleading and pointless…

Canada’s CH-148 Cyclones: Better Late, or Never?

CH-148 Cyclone

Canada’s Maritime Helicopter Replacement Program has been a textbook military procurement program over its long history. Unfortunately, it has been a textbook example of what not to do. While Canada’s 50-year old Sea King fleet aged and deteriorated to potentially dangerous levels, political pettiness and lack of concern turned a straightforward off-the-shelf buy into a 25+ year long odyssey of cancellations, lawsuits, rebids, and more. Eventually, the Canadian military settled on Sikorsky’s H-92 Superhawk as the basis of its new CH-148 Cyclone Maritime Helicopter, which will serve from the decks of Canada’s naval ships and bases.

The civilian S-92 has gone on to some commercial success. To date, however, Canada has been the H-92′s only military customer – with all of the associated systems integration and naval conversion burdens that one would expect. After a long series of badly missed milestones and delivery delays, there are also deeper questions being raised concerning both the machines’ fitness, and DND’s conduct of the program as a whole. This article covers the rationale for, history of, and developments within Canada’s Maritime Helicopter Program.

Britain’s Future CVF Carriers: the Queen Elizabeth Class

RN CVF Concept

Britain’s 1998 Strategic Defence Review (SDR) announced a big leap forward for the Royal Navy: plans to replace the current set of 3 Invincible Class 22,000t escort carriers with 2 larger, more capable Future Aircraft Carrier (CVF) ships that could operate a more powerful force. These new carriers would be joint-service platforms, operating F-35B aircraft, plus helicopters and UAVs from all 3 services. Roles could include ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance), force projection and logistics support, close air support, anti-submarine/ anti-surface naval warfare, and land attack.

The scale of the CVF effort relative to Britain’s past experiences means that the program structure is rather complex. It has passed through several stages already, and is being run and conducted within an industrial alliance framework. There is also a parallel international framework, involving cooperation with France on its PA2 carrier as a derivative of the CVF design. This DID FOCUS article covers that structure and framework, ongoing developments, and the ships themselves as they move slowly through construction, and eventual fielding.

US Will Sell Global Hawks – Will South Korea Buy?

Global Hawk Cutaway

The RQ-4 Global Hawks isn’t a full successor to the famous U-2 spy plane just yet. It’s close, however, and some people have described the HALE (High Altitude, Long Endurance) UAV as the equivalent of having a photo satellite on station. Flying at 60,000 feet for 30-40+ hours at a time, the jet-powered UAV uses sophisticated radars and other sensors to monitor developments on land, sea, and air over an area of about 40,000 square miles/ 100,000 square km. Reported image resolution has been described as 1 foot or less. The USA has made effective use of Global Hawks since their formal unveiling in 1997, which has prompted interest from other countries. Germany has co-developed and inducted its EuroHawk version under a EUR 430 million program, and NATO’s AGS system will deploy Global Hawk UAVs as well.

Outside of NATO, however, sales have been much trickier. Four issues have worked to hold up potential sales – 2 of which are acknowledged openly, and 2 of which tend to play out very much behind the scenes. South Korea ran afoul of all 4 of those issues, when the USA rejected their application to buy 4 of the larger RQ-4B UAVs in 2006. Now, it seems, the tide has turned in the USA, but South Korea is less sure. What’s certain is that the USA will be fielding its own Global Hawks over the peninsula. What’s less certain is whether South Korea will buy some of its own.

Carrier Signal: China’s Naval Aviation

SU-33s: folded, landing

In 1998, the former Russian carrier Varyag was bought by a Chinese firm for use as a “tourist attraction.” Nobody believed that, and by 2005, she was in drydock for secret refits. Still, a carrier needs planes. Near the end of October 2006, Russia’s Kommersant newspaper revealed that Russian state-run weapon exporter Rosoboronexport was in negotiations with China to deliver SU-33s, a variant of Sukhoi’s SU-27 Flanker with forward canards, foldings wings, an arrester hook, a reinforced structure, and other modifications that help it deal with carrier operations and landings.

By 2009, Russian media were reporting a breakdown of negotiations, citing low order numbers and past pirating of Russian SU-27/30 designs. China built on that prior piracy to produce its SU-33 look-alike “J-15,” with the reported assistance of an SU-33 prototype bought from the Ukraine. It’s now 2012, and China’s myriad deceptions have served their purpose. They don’t have an active carrier force yet, but they’re very close.

Rapid Fire Nov. 1, 2012: Shipbuilding Capabilities

• China has ramped up mass production techniques and coordination between its shipyards to allow a rapid modernization of its fleet, with some degree of versatility thanks to modular construction. The Diplomat.

• Meanwhile the Commander-in-Chief of Russia’s Navy Admiral Viktor Chirkov is expecting his country’s shipyards to launch 5 combat and support ships per year in years to come. RIA Novosti.

• The Philippines’ plan to buy a 3rd used cutter from the US is on hold, according to the Philippine Star. For now they will focus on equipping the two ships they already acquired from the US Coast Guard. USCG Dallas, the second of these two ships (renamed to BRP Ramon Alcaraz), is expected in February 2013.

• Australia is not the only country where high commodity prices make it harder for its Navy to retain qualified personnel: Norway is facing similar issues.

• The administrative surcharge rate charged by the US through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) is down from 3.8% to 3.5%, effective today.

• The Center for American Progress and the Institute for Policy Studies, two left-wing American think tanks, are advocating the implementation of a unified security budget, and defense budget cuts at the scale, but not in the shape, of the sequester. PDF report.

• In the US Army’s latest Q&A about the Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) it plans for its fleet of Landing Craft Utility 2000 (LCU 2000) vessels, a point small businesses need to understand beyond this one program: “component (replace/refurbish) decisions would be made by the prime contractor.” An Industry Day should take place next December or January. TACOM.

• Switzerland’s intelligence service reportedly advised in its weekly report for the Swiss Federal Council to consider participating in NATO’s European missile defense system. That would obviously be quite a break from neutrality. Tages-Anzeiger [in German].

Rapid Fire Oct. 24, 2012: Primes Continue to Lose Ground in Q3

• When President Obama said sequestration “will not happen” during the last pre-election debate, it seems he meant “should not happen.”

• The US Navy continues to play a significant role [PDF] in the economy of the Hampton Roads area in Virginia.

• Northrop Grumman’s Q3 2012 sales are down 5.2% (Y/Y) to $6.27B, but their total backlog is up by $1.5B to $41B. Continuing a trend seen in previous quarters, information and electronic systems are driving revenue down, while aerospace has grown 5% to $2.59B thanks to UAVs and the F-35.

Rapid Fire Oct, 10, 2012: Sequestration Will Spread Malaria

• Democrats from the House Appropriations Committee published their estimates of the consequences of sequestration not just on defense, but as DID recently half-jokingly predicted, with an increasingly broad scope and dire consequences. If the loss of 1 million 2 million jobs did not adequately frighten you, consider that the sequester also means “3 million fewer malaria treatments” and “more than 14,000 deaths from completely preventable illnesses.”